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  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    And how do we decide when he's not hot?
    Maybe when he goes hitless for a couple three games [emoji848]

  2. #302
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Which of these 3 has a track record of Yelich that he'd be taking ABs away from?
    Caratini ? Bote ? Hoerner ?

    Also, I never said to play Kipnis everyday so he can take ABs away from anyone.
    all I suggested was that MAYBE Ross should consider giving him a few extra ABs as a DH against some RHers to give Contreras a full day off

    I don't get the pushback from that suggestion
    The guy playing well, let him get a few extra ABs here and there
    You don't need the track record of Yelich to have a better track record than Kipnis.

  3. #303
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Maybe when he goes hitless for a couple three games [emoji848]
    So now we're going to wait for him to turn into a black hole offensively before we play a guy who has been a better hitter for a while now?

    The better plan is to play the most talented people as much as possible. And hope when bench guys get their time they perform better than expected.

  4. #304
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    So now we're going to wait for him to turn into a black hole offensively before we play a guy who has been a better hitter for a while now?

    The better plan is to play the most talented people as much as possible. And hope when bench guys get their time they perform better than expected.
    Which guy that hitting better did I say to replace him with?
    I mean, I never even said to replace anybody with him

    And if he goes hitless for 2 or 3 games in a row , that a blackhole ?
    So, then it a good thing Kipnis been carrying a few of these guys that been in this black hole the last week or so....
    And
    I never even suggested to start him for 2 or 3 games in a row

    I have no idea where you got me saying for him to replace anyone or to even play everyday over simply suggesting that he should get a couple more ABs by being used as a DH more here and there
    Lol
    Last edited by chibears55; 08-13-2020 at 12:35 AM.

  5. #305
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Which of these 3 has a track record of Yelich that he'd be taking ABs away from?
    Caratini ? Bote ? Hoerner ?

    Also, I never said to play Kipnis everyday so he can take ABs away from anyone.
    all I suggested was that MAYBE Ross should consider giving him a few extra ABs as a DH against some RHers to give Contreras a full day off

    I don't get the pushback from that suggestion
    The guy playing well, let him get a few extra ABs here and there
    Because Kipnis isn't a very good player, and you're suggesting he get more PA's than a bad player should get. You seem to want to throw out years of data on Kipnis because of 20 some PA's. The Cubs have multiple offdays over the course of the next few weeks and just had 4 off. Contreras does not need more off days. Kipnis does not need to eat his PA's up. Kipnis is just a bad player who's had a few good weeks. No different than when Descalso had 50 PA's of .350 wOBA results. Simply put; bad players have good runs. Don't get blinded by it.

    You've resorted, as well, to making strawmans. No one said Bote was Yelich. I made the point that bad-players-who-are-hot are similar to good-players-who-are-cold in that they're one PA away from being the guy you expect. You have inserted words in my mouth claiming Kipnis was eating up PA's from a Yelich. You're correct in that he's not eating PA's from Yelich. He has earned his PA's he's received and the Cubs should not increase his usage because of a few good games. Continue to deploy him as you have. No more.

    It's simple as that. Don't waste playing time on a bad player that's going to be a bad player. This isn't some young kid who needed to learn. Or a player who may have had a blip. His last 1,500 PAs, he was an 85 wRC+ hitter. That slots him in as the 208th best hitter in the last 3 years (out of a possible 234). He's a bad hitter now. He's going to be a bad hitter again.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 08-13-2020 at 12:17 AM.

  6. #306
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Because Kipnis isn't a very good player, and you're suggesting he get more PA's than a bad player should get. You seem to want to throw out years of data on Kipnis because of 20 some PA's. The Cubs have multiple offdays over the course of the next few weeks and just had 5 off. Contreras does not need more off days. Kipnis does not need to eat his PA's up. Kipnis is just a bad player who's had a few good weeks. No different than when Descalso had 50 PA's of .350 wOBA results. Simply put; bad players have good runs. Don't get blinded by it.

    You've resorted, as well, to making strawmans. No one said Bote was Yelich. I made the point that bad-players-who-are-hot are similar to good-players-who-are-cold in that they're one PA away from being the guy you expect. You have inserted words in my mouth claiming Kipnis was eating up PA's from a Yelich. You're correct in that he's not eating PA's from Yelich. He has earned his PA's he's received and the Cubs should not increase his usage because of a few good games. Continue to deploy him as you have. No more.

    It's simple as that. Don't waste playing time on a bad player that's going to be a bad player. This isn't some young kid who needed to learn. Or a player who may have had a blip. His last 1,500 PAs, he was an 85 wRC+ hitter. That slots him in as the 208th best hitter in the last 3 years (out of a possible 234). He's a bad hitter now. He's going to be a bad hitter again.
    So because he wasn't good the last couple years he shouldn't get a few more ABs this year despite playing well, over a couple of players that are bad players now..
    OK [emoji849]

    I'm sorry but I have to laugh at this..
    Throwing out years of DATA for suggesting that a player who is playing well this year, should get a few extra ABs against some RHers as a DH

    You're acting like I'm suggesting he takes over 2B as a starter for the rest of the year. Now that would be over reacting to 20 ABs

    I misread what you were saying about Yelich and that scenario, I took it as you comparing someone he would replace..
    But again, I wasn't suggesting he play 2B or DH everyday to risk him falling into a bad slump over that period, I was just simply suggesting he be used as a DH here and there against some RHers
    Last edited by chibears55; 08-13-2020 at 12:32 AM.

  7. #307
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    Dietrich with a great game in his Rangers debut. I'm certainly not expecting him to be a world beater or anything but i'm a little dissapointed we never got a chance to see him. I was much more interested in him on the bench then Souza.

  8. #308
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    Much like Mills as the 5th starter is a counting of blessings, so should we with Kipnis. His 26 awesome PAs this year don't erase this significance of his last 1500.

    The Cubs should use Bote and Hoerner every time instead of Kipnis.
    Cubs should play the players who are playing the best. Right now at 2B, that's Kipnis for the time-being. He's hitting the ball hard.

    Bote is pretty decent normally too, no reason he can't make some starts at 2B. Nico started out hitting well, so they played him. Now he's swinging a lame bat, so you give other guys a chance if they're playing better. Batters get hot and cold all the time.

  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stratos View Post
    Cubs should play the players who are playing the best. Right now at 2B, that's Kipnis for the time-being. He's hitting the ball hard.

    Bote is pretty decent normally too, no reason he can't make some starts at 2B. Nico started out hitting well, so they played him. Now he's swinging a lame bat, so you give other guys a chance if they're playing better. Batters get hot and cold all the time.
    That is nonsensical. You don't play who is "playing the best right now" you play who you believe will play the best TODAY. It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict when a "hot streak" will end. Therefore, you play the players that are the most likely to give you the best outcome. Not someone who has had a nice week.

    If someone believes Kipnis is the BEST OPTION at 2B, play him every day. Otherwise, don't.

    It is not even a remotely complicated calculus. I will happily agree to disagree that Kipnis is the best option out there. But I can shrug my shoulders at someone believing that.

    Believing you should play a lesser player, though, that is simply bonkers.

  10. #310
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    Saw the highlights, great game. JHey is having a nice quiet and productive streak. If we get this JHey for the next 3 years after this season I will be happy. The Cubs team ERA with that disastrous 13-2 loss thrown out would be 3.36. It is now an even 4.00. Oh well. Keep up the streak!!!

  11. #311
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    That is nonsensical. You don't play who is "playing the best right now" you play who you believe will play the best TODAY. It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict when a "hot streak" will end. Therefore, you play the players that are the most likely to give you the best outcome. Not someone who has had a nice week.
    Somebody who had a nice week can turn into someone who has a nice month, or a nice half, or a nice year. You don't find out unless you play them. Guys have good years and bad years, good halfs and bad halfs, good months and bad months, good weeks and bad weeks, good games and bad games.

    It's pretty dumb to bench someone who is playing really well because you think they could revert to previous numbers at any point. It's just as dumb to keep playing someone like Descalso or Almora or Kimbrel when they're playing poorly because you also think they could revert to their previous numbers at any point. Why is the latter accepted, but you deny the former? It's totally illogical. Would you immediately replace Mills with Q in the rotation when he comes back? Of course not, because Mills has been pitching well, even though at any time Mills could return to his typical crappy self.

    It's not like you'd be benching Baez to play Kipnis, that would be dumb. Playing Kipnis over Nico or Bote is very low-risk. If Kipnis keeps playing well, you keep playing him, if he stops hitting well you play someone else.

    Yes you do play the person who you think will play the best today. If player A is playing really well and player B is playing poorly, that's a factor along with many others.
    Last edited by Stratos; 08-13-2020 at 02:57 AM.

  12. #312
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    So cubs playing well, awesome sauce. Not very surprised with the offense, I knew we had the potential to be a top offense assuming health...DH helps that a lot too. Always thought/said Happ was a huge X factor, if he can keep giving quality ABs, it really lengthens the lineup...same goes w JHey...heís looking sorta like the guy we expected in this very small sample size. Vic C is what I expected...Bote and Hoerner being decent doesnít hurt either. Once KB gets rollin it could really get fun.

    As for the whole Kipnis hating. I thought it was the correct move to play him against his former team, especially since heís been playing well. Hoerner needs to get consistent ABs, but Iím ok with playing Kipnis 1/3- 1/2 of the time. And whenís heís hot let it roll. I donít think itís a given he sucks. Wasnít part of his issue recently injuries? He seems to at least give professional ABs, Iím ok w him as a part time player.

    With all this winning, it should be noted we havenít beaten anyone, thatís not really going to change until the playoffs tho lol.

    Still donít trust are pitching, especially the BP. If we added a Chapman level pitcher we could really be dangerous. Not sure thatís possible/or worth it given how good the dodgers and Yankees r tho. If we can somehow trade for someone cheaply, or have a young kid come up dominate in the pen we could have a snowballs chance tho, even against the dodgers. Been fun so far.

    Go cubbies!

  13. #313
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    So because he wasn't good the last couple years he shouldn't get a few more ABs this year despite playing well, over a couple of players that are bad players now..
    OK [emoji849]

    I'm sorry but I have to laugh at this..
    Throwing out years of DATA for suggesting that a player who is playing well this year, should get a few extra ABs against some RHers as a DH

    You're acting like I'm suggesting he takes over 2B as a starter for the rest of the year. Now that would be over reacting to 20 ABs

    I misread what you were saying about Yelich and that scenario, I took it as you comparing someone he would replace..
    But again, I wasn't suggesting he play 2B or DH everyday to risk him falling into a bad slump over that period, I was just simply suggesting he be used as a DH here and there against some RHers
    You can keep typing out your suggestion like I can't read, it doesn't make it any better. No, he shouldn't get a single PA that you weren't willing to give him if he played like he had been the last 3 years. If you do, you're giving PA's away to a bad player who's has 20 good plate appearances.

    You're laughing? I'm laughing at your suggestion we throw out 1,500 PA's of horrible, bad, no good offense because he had 7 good games. Between June 7th and June 24th last year, he managed to put up 59 PA's of 183 wRC+ baseball. On the season he was one of the 10 worst offensive players in baseball who qualified. Bad players literally do this all the time. Jason Kipnis had another run of .331 wOBA in 66 PA's in July. This is not new for Jason Kipnis, to look good over the course of a shockingly small sample size.

    You're damn right he shouldn't get another PA over someone you think is just a better baseball player because he had 22 good plate appeanances. If you went into this season and you thought Nico Hoerner or David Bote was a better player, then you play them more. If you thought Willson Contreras was a better DH you play him more. Or Caratini. Jason Kipnis is Jason Kipnis and he's proven that small bursts of good hitting exist within him. Literally every year, some dumpy, bad player has a good run with every team. Good management is understanding what these runs are; aberrations in the system. You take every second of good you get, appreciate the better than expected results, but you don't change the plan because of it. It's the gambler's fallacy to take small sample sizes of the most recent data and feel like something's changed. And it's the people who feel like they have to keep playing because "they're hot" who end up pissing money away and going home with much less, or losing it all back to the house. The winners are the one's who understand they're getting lucky and walk away from the table.

    The plan on Kipnis should be altered in no way. If you would have felt player X, Y or Z would have normally been the better option in the lineup, you play that guy. If you'd normally have started Kipnis, you start Kipnis. You shouldn't alter your plan in any way, because he had a nice 22 plate appearance run.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 08-13-2020 at 08:13 AM.

  14. #314
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman85 View Post
    So cubs playing well, awesome sauce. Not very surprised with the offense, I knew we had the potential to be a top offense assuming health...DH helps that a lot too. Always thought/said Happ was a huge X factor, if he can keep giving quality ABs, it really lengthens the lineup...same goes w JHey...heís looking sorta like the guy we expected in this very small sample size. Vic C is what I expected...Bote and Hoerner being decent doesnít hurt either. Once KB gets rollin it could really get fun.

    As for the whole Kipnis hating. I thought it was the correct move to play him against his former team, especially since heís been playing well. Hoerner needs to get consistent ABs, but Iím ok with playing Kipnis 1/3- 1/2 of the time. And whenís heís hot let it roll. I donít think itís a given he sucks. Wasnít part of his issue recently injuries? He seems to at least give professional ABs, Iím ok w him as a part time player.

    With all this winning, it should be noted we havenít beaten anyone, thatís not really going to change until the playoffs tho lol.

    Still donít trust are pitching, especially the BP. If we added a Chapman level pitcher we could really be dangerous. Not sure thatís possible/or worth it given how good the dodgers and Yankees r tho. If we can somehow trade for someone cheaply, or have a young kid come up dominate in the pen we could have a snowballs chance tho, even against the dodgers. Been fun so far.

    Go cubbies!
    Cleveland was 10-7 before we came to town

    Also I just read this.

    There were plenty of knocks over the past two nights in Cleveland against a Tribe pitching staff that had not allowed more than four runs in any of its first 17 games
    Thats pretty impressive, even if we were gifted not having to face Clevenger.
    Last edited by WOwolfOL; 08-13-2020 at 08:19 AM.

  15. #315
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    You can keep typing out your suggestion like I can't read, it doesn't make it any better. No, he shouldn't get a single PA that you weren't willing to give him if he played like he had been the last 3 years. If you do, you're giving PA's away to a bad player who's has 20 good plate appearances.

    You're laughing? I'm laughing at your suggestion we throw out 1,500 PA's of horrible, bad, no good offense because he had 7 good games. Between June 7th and June 24th last year, he managed to put up 59 PA's of 183 wRC+ baseball. On the season he was one of the 10 worst offensive players in baseball who qualified. Bad players literally do this all the time. Jason Kipnis had another run of .331 wOBA in 66 PA's in July. This is not new for Jason Kipnis, to look good over the course of a shockingly small sample size.

    You're damn right he shouldn't get another PA over someone you think is just a better baseball player because he had 22 good plate appeanances. If you went into this season and you thought Nico Hoerner or David Bote was a better player, then you play them more. If you thought Willson Contreras was a better DH you play him more. Or Caratini. Jason Kipnis is Jason Kipnis and he's proven that small bursts of good hitting exist within him. Literally every year, some dumpy, bad player has a good run with every team. Good management is understanding what these runs are; aberrations in the system. You take every second of good you get, appreciate the better than expected results, but you don't change the plan because of it. It's the gambler's fallacy to take small sample sizes of the most recent data and feel like something's changed. And it's the people who feel like they have to keep playing because "they're hot" who end up pissing money away and going home with much less, or losing it all back to the house. The winners are the one's who understand they're getting lucky and walk away from the table.

    The plan on Kipnis should be altered in no way. If you would have felt player X, Y or Z would have normally been the better option in the lineup, you play that guy. If you'd normally have started Kipnis, you start Kipnis. You shouldn't alter your plan in any way, because he had a nice 22 plate appearance run.
    Yep. Kipnis playing isn't even the Cubs just "playing the hot hand" I think it means they don't think that Nico/Bote will outperform Kipnis this year, which is pretty upsetting, whether they're right or wrong.

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