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  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfoley89 View Post
    5 A's plunked in the series. 0 Astros. It was bound to happen
    Sounds like Alex Cintron said something about Laureano's mother is what set off the brawl.

    The Astros have been way-too-lippy for a team that got cheating and now everybody is questioning how good they really are.

    I would be really amused if MLB would strip the Stros of all remaining home games and make them have to play on the road for the remainder of the season, including the playoffs. With that said, I hope MLB hits the Astros harder than the A's with the suspensions. MLB could not do anything about the punishment during the off-season but they could do something about punishment now.
    Screw sabermetics.

  2. #302
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    Quote Originally Posted by JHBulls View Post
    Yadier Molina is thinking: Worst. Retirement. Tour. Ever!
    I can't stand this retirement tour trend. It's just for feeding these people's own monster ego's.

  3. #303
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stratos View Post
    I can't stand this retirement tour trend. It's just for feeding these people's own monster ego's.
    I personally donít mind them. Derek Jeterís retirement tour entailed most of the teams he played against that year giving him money donations for his charity. Some retirement tours might be an ego trip for the athlete but most of them serve a pretty good purpose.

  4. #304
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    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  5. #305
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    Strowman is an interesting case. He's been on the IL but was constanly hyping up his return and was on it just long enough to get his service time for this year and become a FA in 2021. I have a feeling we'll see more of this as the year goes by. I don't think he owes a damn thing to the organization. They've happily manipulated service time for years like everybody else. But that's kinda a rough move to pull on your teammates this early. The Mets are certainly a playoff contender and they just lost their 2nd best pitcher. I gotta think you'll see a bunch of opt outs later this year as teams start falling way behind in a playoff race and service time has been met.

  6. #306
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    If Tatis really contends for the HR title as a plus SS with 99 speed and .300 average, then what I said here last week is true, he has a chance to be the GOAT shortstop. If I need a key AB in the bottom of the 9th I think Iíd only take Trout and Yelich before him in todayís game.

    8 HR from him mostly at Petco vs 8 for Judge mostly in the Bronx also doesnít feel like the same
    Last edited by PeanutPunch33; 08-10-2020 at 05:23 PM.

  7. #307
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeanutPunch33 View Post
    If Tatis really contends for the HR title as a plus SS with 99 speed and .300 average, then what I said here last week is true, he has a chance to be the GOAT shortstop. If I need a key AB in the bottom of the 9th I think Iíd only take Trout and Yelich before him in todayís game.

    8 HR from him mostly at Petco vs 8 for Judge mostly in the Bronx also doesnít feel like the same
    Just like when you posted this last time, the same remains this time; Tatis is a wonderful talent and is definitely showing why people think he's going to be a great baseball player, but he's just played 100 games, and a handful of his numbers are impossibly high, as in, there's no possibility they can remain this high, it's incredibly statistically unlikely. He's also striking out a ton. Not to mention, defensively, he put up negative numbers last year in his largest sample size.

    We don't need to overreact to every little thing that happens in baseball. He's put up a wonderful and awe-inspiring first 100 games as an MLB'er. We can appreciate that, while also walk back statements like "GOAT" after 100 games. We're 2/3rds of one season of a sample size on the guy. What happens when his BABIP goes down .50-.70 points (which it will, a .400 is next to impossible to maintain)? He'll be hitting something like .250/.260 at that point. His OBP will drop to the .330-.340 range. His power and base running will keep him near the top of the SS fWAR boards, but he'll be far from the "GOAT". Can he improve his contact ability to keep up? Who knows?

    I realize you've qualified it with "chance" and you'll likely point to this as "well I just said it was a chance, jeeze", but there's just zero reason to bring up the "greatest of all time" talk for a player who hasn't even eclipsed 450 PA's at the highest level. With good health, this is a hitter who will literally put up thousands and thousands of PA in his career. It's just not time for that. It's a massive over reactive comment that's unnecessary. So far Tatis has been awesome, but to put him among the Jeters, the A-Rods, the Banks, the Smiths, the Ripkens...just...pump the breaks.

  8. #308
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    Love Tatis.

  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Just like when you posted this last time, the same remains this time; Tatis is a wonderful talent and is definitely showing why people think he's going to be a great baseball player, but he's just played 100 games, and a handful of his numbers are impossibly high, as in, there's no possibility they can remain this high, it's incredibly statistically unlikely. He's also striking out a ton. Not to mention, defensively, he put up negative numbers last year in his largest sample size.

    We don't need to overreact to every little thing that happens in baseball. He's put up a wonderful and awe-inspiring first 100 games as an MLB'er. We can appreciate that, while also walk back statements like "GOAT" after 100 games. We're 2/3rds of one season of a sample size on the guy. What happens when his BABIP goes down .50-.70 points (which it will, a .400 is next to impossible to maintain)? He'll be hitting something like .250/.260 at that point. His OBP will drop to the .330-.340 range. His power and base running will keep him near the top of the SS fWAR boards, but he'll be far from the "GOAT". Can he improve his contact ability to keep up? Who knows?

    I realize you've qualified it with "chance" and you'll likely point to this as "well I just said it was a chance, jeeze", but there's just zero reason to bring up the "greatest of all time" talk for a player who hasn't even eclipsed 450 PA's at the highest level. With good health, this is a hitter who will literally put up thousands and thousands of PA in his career. It's just not time for that. It's a massive over reactive comment that's unnecessary. So far Tatis has been awesome, but to put him among the Jeters, the A-Rods, the Banks, the Smiths, the Ripkens...just...pump the breaks.
    Personally I donít think baseball follows the traditional wheel that most people believe on here. I believe that once you hit the big leagues as a position player, there is very little talent difference between you and 85% of other hitters in the league. Everybody has bat speed. Mostly everybody can change a game with one swing. Everyone works constantly on their approach. Not everyone has the same work ethic however.. so human element plays a role.

    Obviously thereís a talent difference between a Javy Baez and a Ben Gamel, but for most of the league I strongly believe that the difference for some guys becoming mega stars and other guys just being okay is 1) coaching, technique, batting stance and approach 2) leadership, opportunities to play, environment 3) agents/family/leadership in your life etc. Itís hard to quantify these things but believe me they do make an impact. I mean, do you really think Anthony Rizzo would be the same player in San Diego (if he never got traded) as he is today? All it took was one person believing in him for him to be the difference between AAA fodder vs a WS 1st basemen.

    Back to my point on Tatis. If Lapoce can make Mills look like Mark Prior why canít Tatis get better as he gets more experience, maybe a different perspective on his stance and approach, maybe he fills out his body and becomes a 40+ hr lead off guy.
    My point is that human element plays a critical role, and guys that have generational talent can break the wheel. Baseball canít always be analyzed in spreadsheets (believe me Iíve tried, investing and baseball betting are my life). Tatis will keep a .380 BABIP because heís just that speedy and good. Or maybe that goes down a lot but he becomes the best defender in the game and a guy good for 40 pops. Maybe he cuts down on the strikeouts. Or maybe he never gets better at all and becomes Orlando Arica.

    And anyway I just said he has a chance to be that, not that he will. But regardless Iíll amend my statement to say ďhe has the best 100 game start to a career of any SS Iíve ever seen or researched.

    Im up 29,400 and change exactly since I started baseball betting in January 2018 and I donít know half the stats people on here do You donít have to be a geek to love baseball, be good at predicting it, people have made careers in the league out of the so called ďeye testĒ and the majority of the baseball bettors I know that try to do it semi professionally tell me that when it comes down it its their gut decision in the end and not what dailybaseballdata or fangraphs splits will tell you. You use that crap as a supplement to your first intuition not as a source of truth. The game is just too unpredictable. I canít tell you he will be the GOAT but you canít tell me he wonít be. We just donít know. So you guys can laugh at me all you want for saying he has GOAT potential but thatís what my eye test says from a small sample size obviously I know thereís a 99% chance it wonít happen. But Iíve seen this game long enough to know anything can happen

    Definitely getting wary of being made to feel like an inferior fan because I have hot takes and arenít as caught up in the numbers as some on here, but itís all good.
    Last edited by PeanutPunch33; 08-10-2020 at 07:05 PM.

  10. #310
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeanutPunch33 View Post
    Personally I donít think baseball follows the traditional wheel that most people believe on here. I believe that once you hit the big leagues as a position player, there is very little talent difference between you and 85% of other hitters in the league. Everybody has bat speed. Mostly everybody can change a game with one swing. Everyone works constantly on their approach. Not everyone has the same work ethic however.. so human element plays a role.

    Obviously thereís a talent difference between a Javy Baez and a Ben Gamel, but for most of the league I strongly believe that the difference for some guys becoming mega stars and other guys just being okay is 1) coaching, technique, batting stance and approach 2) leadership, opportunities to play, environment 3) agents/family/leadership in your life etc. Itís hard to quantify these things but believe me they do make an impact. I mean, do you really think Anthony Rizzo would be the same player in San Diego (if he never got traded) as he is today? All it took was one person believing in him for him to be the difference between AAA fodder vs a WS 1st basemen.

    Back to my point on Tatis. If Lapoce can make Mills look like Mark Prior why canít Tatis get better as he gets more experience, maybe a different perspective on his stance and approach, maybe he fills out his body and becomes a 40+ hr lead off guy.
    My point is that human element plays a critical role, and guys that have generational talent can break the wheel. Baseball canít always be analyzed in spreadsheets (believe me Iíve tried, investing and baseball betting are my life). Tatis will keep a .380 BABIP because heís just that speedy and good. Or maybe that goes down a lot but he becomes the best defender in the game and a guy good for 40 pops. Maybe he cuts down on the strikeouts. Or maybe he never gets better at all and becomes Orlando Arica.

    And anyway I just said he has a chance to be that, not that he will. But regardless Iíll amend my statement to say ďhe has the best 100 game start to a career of any SS Iíve ever seen or researched.

    Im up 29,400 and change exactly since I started baseball betting in January 2018 and I donít know half the stats people on here do You donít have to be a geek to love baseball, be good at predicting it, people have made careers in the league out of the so called ďeye testĒ and the majority of the baseball bettors I know that try to do it semi professionally tell me that when it comes down it its their gut decision in the end and not what dailybaseballdata or fangraphs splits will tell you. You use that crap as a supplement to your first intuition not as a source of truth. The game is just too unpredictable. I canít tell you he will be the GOAT but you canít tell me he wonít be. We just donít know. So you guys can laugh at me all you want for saying he has GOAT potential but thatís what my eye test says from a small sample size obviously I know thereís a 99% chance it wonít happen. But Iíve seen this game long enough to know anything can happen
    No one has said "anything" can't happen. It's the jump-to-conclusion game you consistently play. Bryant has 10 bad PA's and you run on in here and he's the worst hitter ever. Nic Castellanos has 10 good games, he's better than JD Martinez and it's no surprise he's leading the league in offense. Fernando Tatis has 100 great games, and he's the GOAT SS of all time. With you, it's like there's only two numbers between 1 and 100, and it's the two extremes. Baseball is a game of large sample sizes and long grueling seasons and careers. At any moment, Mike Trout can be slumping while Jason Kipnis can have a great week. But you cannot live so day to day on the results and flip out.

    Part of what you wrote, however, is baffling. "He's going to have a .380 BABIP because he just will". Oh, okay. I mean, he didn't do it in the minor leagues, and Ty Cobb had a career BABIP of .378 (highest in the HoF), but Fernando Tatis will just do it because. Do you not see how insane that is? How bonkers? How, completely detached from reality? For Tatis to BABIP over .380 he'd have to be better than Ty Cobb, during the 1900's when guys just tried to hit the ball on the ground and get singles. So, yeah, if he did that he'd be the GOAT, but literally nothing in baseball statistics or his profile suggests he's going to be the all-time-greatest BABIP player of MLB history because of 100 games.

    Not to mention, why would the Cubs hitting coach, Ian Iapoce, have anything to do with Alec Mills, a SP? Tommy Hottavoy is the Cubs pitching coach, and he was here last year. Mills, as well, "doesn't look like Mark Prior". Alec Mills is striking out very few, walking about the same normal amount he always has. He's so far benefited from pitching against weak offenses in positive pitching environments this year.

    Do I think Anthony Rizzo is the same player in SD than he is in Chicago? No. I don't. At least, not as fast. But it isn't because "all he needed is one guy to believe in him". That's ******** too. This isn't a Disney movie. First off, he was a 2nd round selection of the Boston Red Sox, so he was an incredibly well thought of prospect. Secondly, the Cubs didn't just "believe" really hard in him, they fixed his hand placement. But he was still a top-50 MLB prospect prior to the trade to Chicago. Anthony Rizzo was always a great player. The Cubs, thankfully, have a great organization, and took advantage of his natural skills better than SD had been. The Padres aren't run by dolts, I'm sure they'd have tweaked his stance, as well, at some point. So I can't say what he'd be. What I can say is the Cubs did good things with him. But again, this has nothing to do with "one guy believing" real hard in him, or whatever. The Cubs have a great organization up and down when it comes to young players and their hitting approach. I do agree that coaching at lower levels is incredibly important. I think every step up, the importance of coaching changes less from "teaching" (at the MLB level these guys don't need to "learn" things often) to "maintenance, clubhouse, and minor tweaks".

    This is what the issue with your "eye test" is. It's next to worthless for evaluating MLB talent. No matter how much you think you like baseball, or how much you think you watch baseball, your eye test is worthless when discussing with another human being baseball talent, unless you're a professional scout. Considering we're on an online forum, I'll make the assumption you're not, and if you are, then we can cross that bridge, but let's just go with that assumption (it's a fair one).

    You cannot watch enough MLB baseball to have your eye test matter. You're watching on TV broadcasts that don't lend themselves to eye test scouting, and you just don't have the time in the day to watch every inning of every player. Sincerely, I doubt you've watched more than a handful of innings of most MLB players, and this is even if you really love baseball. We have lives, jobs, families, pets, friends, kids...etc. I really love baseball but I can't tell you how few innings I've seen Matt Olson in Oakland, or Trevor Williams in Pittsburgh, or Byron Buxton in Minnesota. I just don't have the time to watch those guys. And even when I do catch a game here or there, we're talking 10-20 innings a year on these guys. It's not enough when they play almost 1000 innings yearly. And that's not even taking out the subjectivity and the flaws of human memory (which are extensive)

    While the game cannot be "played on a spreadsheet" it's all you and I have that equate to a non-biased, all encompassing scouting report on these players. There's no doubt that sometimes, there's minor flaws in statistics. Your eye test is infinitely more flawed. Mine is, too. This isn't a "your eye test is dumb!" pin-prick at you, it's everyone who's not a scout, myself included. We just can't compete. And without knowing Fernando Tatis on a deeply personal level, we cannot begin to make assumptions on his personality type. I think if you asked people on the Cubs forum in 2016, Russell seemed like a very calm, quiet, and non-offensive dude. Then you find out a few years later he terrorizes his wife off the field. And this isn't saying Tatis is Russell, only using an example of how little we really know anyone on the field.

    Yes, Tatis is a young player. Yes, he's capable of amazing things. And yes, there's a chance he's the greatest SS we've ever seen. But he's also got major flaws in his game that are quickly going to catch up. He cannot BABIP .400. He cannot BABIP .380, just because. He'll probably BABIP around .330-.350. And even then, that'd be the best 10 or so in the league yearly. But that instantly drops his batting average .50-.70 points and the same to his OBP. He needs to sort his defense out a bit, but we're also in the short stages of his career, so perhaps we just need more data. His K% at 30% is a major concern. Can he fix these things? He would NOT be the first 20 year old who struck out a lot and then fixed it over his career. But he also wouldn't be the first wunderkind we saw who's contact issues caught up with him, either.

    This is all to say, again, that there are numbers between 1 and 100. There's no reason that everyone either has to be the "GOAT" or the "Best hitter in the league" or "a glorified leadoff hitter" in such small sample sizes that you want to claim. A player can have a slump. A player might be hot. Baseball is a grind. Always and forever. 100 games feels like a long time, and yet, it's 66% of a season, give or take. Tatis, with good health, will likely play just short of 20 more. We're barely into 5% of his total. I'm incredibly impressed with how good his first 100 went, but before we start bringing him into any potential "all time great" conversation with the Jeters, the Ozzie Smiths, the Ernie Banks, the Cal Ripkins, or the whomevers, let's let him get past the baby steps and let him settle in. Maybe Tatis will be in that conversation. Or maybe in 5 years we'll wonder how we even had a conversation on him. So instead of going instantly to "100" on Tatis, let's let it slowly ramp up a much lower number. We can get to 100, but maybe, not today.

    And listen, I don't think you're "inferior". But guess what? Hot takes make you look silly. Hot-Take culture needs to die because anyone can have a hot-take. It's literally defined as a "quick decision". So, be prepared, if you want to be the hot-take king, you're going to leave yourself vulnerable to criticism consistently. Because it's almost assuredly a not-very-well-researched point.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 08-10-2020 at 07:24 PM.

  11. #311
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    In Cubs news, Mike Clevenger will not start Tuesday. He broke Cleveland health protocols.

  12. #312
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    No one has said "anything" can't happen. It's the jump-to-conclusion game you consistently play. Bryant has 10 bad PA's and you run on in here and he's the worst hitter ever. Nic Castellanos has 10 good games, he's better than JD Martinez and it's no surprise he's leading the league in offense. Fernando Tatis has 100 great games, and he's the GOAT SS of all time. With you, it's like there's only two numbers between 1 and 100, and it's the two extremes. Baseball is a game of large sample sizes and long grueling seasons and careers. At any moment, Mike Trout can be slumping while Jason Kipnis can have a great week. But you cannot live so day to day on the results and flip out.

    Part of what you wrote, however, is baffling. "He's going to have a .380 BABIP because he just will". Oh, okay. I mean, he didn't do it in the minor leagues, and Ty Cobb had a career BABIP of .378 (highest in the HoF), but Fernando Tatis will just do it because. Do you not see how insane that is? How bonkers? How, completely detached from reality? For Tatis to BABIP over .380 he'd have to be better than Ty Cobb, during the 1900's when guys just tried to hit the ball on the ground and get singles. So, yeah, if he did that he'd be the GOAT, but literally nothing in baseball statistics or his profile suggests he's going to be the all-time-greatest BABIP player of MLB history because of 100 games.

    Not to mention, why would the Cubs hitting coach, Ian Iapoce, have anything to do with Alec Mills, a SP? Tommy Hottavoy is the Cubs pitching coach, and he was here last year. Mills, as well, "doesn't look like Mark Prior". Alec Mills is striking out very few, walking about the same normal amount he always has. He's so far benefited from pitching against weak offenses in positive pitching environments this year.

    Do I think Anthony Rizzo is the same player in SD than he is in Chicago? No. I don't. At least, not as fast. But it isn't because "all he needed is one guy to believe in him". That's ******** too. This isn't a Disney movie. First off, he was a 2nd round selection of the Boston Red Sox, so he was an incredibly well thought of prospect. Secondly, the Cubs didn't just "believe" really hard in him, they fixed his hand placement. But he was still a top-50 MLB prospect prior to the trade to Chicago. Anthony Rizzo was always a great player. The Cubs, thankfully, have a great organization, and took advantage of his natural skills better than SD had been. The Padres aren't run by dolts, I'm sure they'd have tweaked his stance, as well, at some point. So I can't say what he'd be. What I can say is the Cubs did good things with him. But again, this has nothing to do with "one guy believing" real hard in him, or whatever. The Cubs have a great organization up and down when it comes to young players and their hitting approach. I do agree that coaching at lower levels is incredibly important. I think every step up, the importance of coaching changes less from "teaching" (at the MLB level these guys don't need to "learn" things often) to "maintenance, clubhouse, and minor tweaks".

    This is what the issue with your "eye test" is. It's next to worthless for evaluating MLB talent. No matter how much you think you like baseball, or how much you think you watch baseball, your eye test is worthless when discussing with another human being baseball talent, unless you're a professional scout. Considering we're on an online forum, I'll make the assumption you're not, and if you are, then we can cross that bridge, but let's just go with that assumption (it's a fair one).

    You cannot watch enough MLB baseball to have your eye test matter. You're watching on TV broadcasts that don't lend themselves to eye test scouting, and you just don't have the time in the day to watch every inning of every player. Sincerely, I doubt you've watched more than a handful of innings of most MLB players, and this is even if you really love baseball. We have lives, jobs, families, pets, friends, kids...etc. I really love baseball but I can't tell you how few innings I've seen Matt Olson in Oakland, or Trevor Williams in Pittsburgh, or Byron Buxton in Minnesota. I just don't have the time to watch those guys. And even when I do catch a game here or there, we're talking 10-20 innings a year on these guys. It's not enough when they play almost 1000 innings yearly. And that's not even taking out the subjectivity and the flaws of human memory (which are extensive)

    While the game cannot be "played on a spreadsheet" it's all you and I have that equate to a non-biased, all encompassing scouting report on these players. There's no doubt that sometimes, there's minor flaws in statistics. Your eye test is infinitely more flawed. Mine is, too. This isn't a "your eye test is dumb!" pin-prick at you, it's everyone who's not a scout, myself included. We just can't compete. And without knowing Fernando Tatis on a deeply personal level, we cannot begin to make assumptions on his personality type. I think if you asked people on the Cubs forum in 2016, Russell seemed like a very calm, quiet, and non-offensive dude. Then you find out a few years later he terrorizes his wife off the field. And this isn't saying Tatis is Russell, only using an example of how little we really know anyone on the field.

    Yes, Tatis is a young player. Yes, he's capable of amazing things. And yes, there's a chance he's the greatest SS we've ever seen. But he's also got major flaws in his game that are quickly going to catch up. He cannot BABIP .400. He cannot BABIP .380, just because. He'll probably BABIP around .330-.350. And even then, that'd be the best 10 or so in the league yearly. But that instantly drops his batting average .50-.70 points and the same to his OBP. He needs to sort his defense out a bit, but we're also in the short stages of his career, so perhaps we just need more data. His K% at 30% is a major concern. Can he fix these things? He would NOT be the first 20 year old who struck out a lot and then fixed it over his career. But he also wouldn't be the first wunderkind we saw who's contact issues caught up with him, either.

    This is all to say, again, that there are numbers between 1 and 100. There's no reason that everyone either has to be the "GOAT" or the "Best hitter in the league" or "a glorified leadoff hitter" in such small sample sizes that you want to claim. A player can have a slump. A player might be hot. Baseball is a grind. Always and forever. 100 games feels like a long time, and yet, it's 66% of a season, give or take. Tatis, with good health, will likely play just short of 20 more. We're barely into 5% of his total. I'm incredibly impressed with how good his first 100 went, but before we start bringing him into any potential "all time great" conversation with the Jeters, the Ozzie Smiths, the Ernie Banks, the Cal Ripkins, or the whomevers, let's let him get past the baby steps and let him settle in. Maybe Tatis will be in that conversation. Or maybe in 5 years we'll wonder how we even had a conversation on him. So instead of going instantly to "100" on Tatis, let's let it slowly ramp up a much lower number. We can get to 100, but maybe, not today.

    And listen, I don't think you're "inferior". But guess what? Hot takes make you look silly. Hot-Take culture needs to die because anyone can have a hot-take. It's literally defined as a "quick decision". So, be prepared, if you want to be the hot-take king, you're going to leave yourself vulnerable to criticism consistently. Because it's almost assuredly a not-very-well-researched point.
    Come on man. I never said KB is the worst hitter ever. I said (Intended as a joke)that his power went from 99 to 20 but I did go on to say that heís overrated AF (which I believe to be true) and that I would never feel comfortable again with him being a 3 hole hitter in my lineup. You responded by saying batting order doesnít matter, which I vehemently disagree with. We talked about his contract/agent and I tried to leave it at that. If you donít want me exaggerating to prove a point you canít be doing the same **** lol. and Iíve been saying Nic is good since he was one of the leaders in hard hit % in 2018 I knew he was good just didnít know he was this good. you can go back and find all my posts from before this season of me pining for the Cubs to keep him. I even said heís the best hitter on the team and the KB fanboys roasted me well guess who turned out to be right.

    And I meant to say the word ďmaybeĒ before the .380 bapip like every other sentence had the word maybe lol I forgot it in my haste but it was used to prove the point that anything can happen in baseball. The rest of your post I wonít contest but like I said, best 100 game start by a SS Iíve ever seen in my life. This kid is a 100 games into his career might win MVP this season. And SSs notorious for developing slowly. Iím the biggest Javy fan yet we didnít even see him break into his own really until 300 ish games into his career
    Last edited by PeanutPunch33; 08-10-2020 at 07:43 PM.

  13. #313
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    8/5 & 8/6: Cubs (9-2) at Royals (3-9) IGT

    NVM
    Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


    El Mago

  14. #314
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeanutPunch33 View Post
    Personally I donít think baseball follows the traditional wheel that most people believe on here. I believe that once you hit the big leagues as a position player, there is very little talent difference between you and 85% of other hitters in the league. Everybody has bat speed. Mostly everybody can change a game with one swing. Everyone works constantly on their approach. Not everyone has the same work ethic however.. so human element plays a role.

    Obviously thereís a talent difference between a Javy Baez and a Ben Gamel, but for most of the league I strongly believe that the difference for some guys becoming mega stars and other guys just being okay is 1) coaching, technique, batting stance and approach 2) leadership, opportunities to play, environment 3) agents/family/leadership in your life etc. Itís hard to quantify these things but believe me they do make an impact. I mean, do you really think Anthony Rizzo would be the same player in San Diego (if he never got traded) as he is today? All it took was one person believing in him for him to be the difference between AAA fodder vs a WS 1st basemen.

    Back to my point on Tatis. If Lapoce can make Mills look like Mark Prior why canít Tatis get better as he gets more experience, maybe a different perspective on his stance and approach, maybe he fills out his body and becomes a 40+ hr lead off guy.
    My point is that human element plays a critical role, and guys that have generational talent can break the wheel. Baseball canít always be analyzed in spreadsheets (believe me Iíve tried, investing and baseball betting are my life). Tatis will keep a .380 BABIP because heís just that speedy and good. Or maybe that goes down a lot but he becomes the best defender in the game and a guy good for 40 pops. Maybe he cuts down on the strikeouts. Or maybe he never gets better at all and becomes Orlando Arica.

    And anyway I just said he has a chance to be that, not that he will. But regardless Iíll amend my statement to say ďhe has the best 100 game start to a career of any SS Iíve ever seen or researched.

    Im up 29,400 and change exactly since I started baseball betting in January 2018 and I donít know half the stats people on here do You donít have to be a geek to love baseball, be good at predicting it, people have made careers in the league out of the so called ďeye testĒ and the majority of the baseball bettors I know that try to do it semi professionally tell me that when it comes down it its their gut decision in the end and not what dailybaseballdata or fangraphs splits will tell you. You use that crap as a supplement to your first intuition not as a source of truth. The game is just too unpredictable. I canít tell you he will be the GOAT but you canít tell me he wonít be. We just donít know. So you guys can laugh at me all you want for saying he has GOAT potential but thatís what my eye test says from a small sample size obviously I know thereís a 99% chance it wonít happen. But Iíve seen this game long enough to know anything can happen

    Definitely getting wary of being made to feel like an inferior fan because I have hot takes and arenít as caught up in the numbers as some on here, but itís all good.
    1908 already covered everything much more vastly and eloquently than I ever could, but in regards to the bolded, give me a break. You consistently write up self-congratulatory, condescending (not to mention baseless) essays every time you post, then try and act bullied or mistreated when you meet resistence. Believe whatever you want about Fernando Tatis, or anything for that matter, but you can't just spew out whatever "hot take" nonsense you want and expect everyone to be blown away.

  15. #315
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeanutPunch33 View Post
    Come on man. I never said KB is the worst hitter ever. I said (Intended as a joke)that his power went from 99 to 20 but I did go on to say that heís overrated AF (which I believe to be true) and that I would never feel comfortable again with him being a 3 hole hitter in my lineup. You responded by saying batting order doesnít matter, which I vehemently disagree with. We talked about his contract/agent and I tried to leave it at that. If you donít want me exaggerating to prove a point you canít be doing the same **** lol. and Iíve been saying Nic is good since he was one of the leaders in hard hit % in 2018 I knew he was good just didnít know he was this good. you can go back and find all my posts from before this season of me pining for the Cubs to keep him. I even said heís the best hitter on the team and the KB fanboys roasted me well guess who turned out to be right.

    And I meant to say the word ďmaybeĒ before the .380 bapip like every other sentence had the word maybe lol I forgot it in my haste but it was used to prove the point that anything can happen in baseball. The rest of your post I wonít contest but like I said, best 100 game start by a SS Iíve ever seen in my life. This kid is a 100 games into his career might win MVP this season. And SSs notorious for developing slowly. Iím the biggest Javy fan yet we didnít even see him break into his own really until 300 ish games into his career
    What did I exaggerate? Your words were "glorified leadoff hitter" and "not a 3 hitter". I haven't exaggerated anything. You said that Castellanos was maybe better than JD Martinez and that "we shouldn't be surprised he's leading the league" in offense. I'm in no way exaggerating. These are your words, my friend. This is how every conversation you start has been going lately. It isn't "Man, Castellanos has had a really nice start. Now, I know he's probably not the best hitter in the league, but perhaps his hot streak at the end of last year, coupled with playing in Great American Ballpark will inflate his offensive numbers more than we thought!" Which would have been a perfectly normal post. Instead it was immediately to being better than JD Martinez. Boom. It's why hot-takes are ridiculous. Slow down.

    Not to mention, you haven't turned out to be right about anything. We're a handful of games into the Cubs season. If we're using 12 or so game sample sizes, again, Daniel Descalso had a .350 wOBA last year in 12 games. That would be have been the 9th best 2b in offense in 2019. We know just how horrible of a take it would have been to say, in the 2nd week of April "I knew Daniel Descalso was going to be better than Whit Merrifield this year and I proved all you Merrifield fanboys right". Hot takes are silly.

    Baez should not be a measuring stick. Baez was a disaster when he came up and the Cubs organization had to basically fix his batting stance ground up and his approach changed drastically. Guys simply don't do what Baez did. But I'm also not sure where this "SS's are notorious for developing slowly" thing comes from. Look at the top SS's in the league. Story, Lindor, Bogearts, DeJong, Torres, Seager, Turner...they were not slow starters. Out of your top SS's in the league right now, Semian, and Baez are basically your two "slow" starters.

    Again, Tatis has had an awesome 100. But, pumping the breaks is always the better option than spewing hot takes left and right. Sure, maybe you can't claim to be "the first" or whatever, but you'll also avoid all of the hot takes that drop out of your mouth that make you look ridiculous. Well thought out, researched, and patient claims will always trump hot take random claims.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 08-10-2020 at 07:58 PM.

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