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  1. #76
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    Thoughts on reaching some form of herd immunity? Heard we need about 20% of a population (not sure on density numbers) to get there as opposed to the 70% floating around. Have deaths dropped in ny after letting it run rampant?

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saddletramp View Post
    Donít compare the USA to countries that took this seriously. Stop saying that this will be over in an indefinite period of time. Stop saying that itíll be years before things are back to normal. Stop saying that 3.5 million people dying isnít worth shutting **** down and stop saying that our economy will falter if we keep up these precautions.

    Basically, stop typing garbage.
    Just curious ... what do you think the FINAL death toll will be for this Corona Virus? We're over 700k now and no indication it's stopping any time soon. I think it's fairly likely the death toll will continue to climb well over 1M this year and will continue with 6 digit deaths the next several years. It may well surpass that 3.5M.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scoots View Post
    Just curious ... what do you think the FINAL death toll will be for this Corona Virus? We're over 700k now and no indication it's stopping any time soon. I think it's fairly likely the death toll will continue to climb well over 1M this year and will continue with 6 digit deaths the next several years. It may well surpass that 3.5M.
    Depends on how they define a Corona death over that time period. Doctors getting threatened if they reveal too much truth might inflate the numbers as they already have.

    Also are you certain it will ever be over?

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saddletramp View Post
    1). We donít know yet.
    2). We donít know yet.
    3). We donít know yet and we donít know yet.

    As far as the NYC restaurants, they are using more outdoor seating in parking lots and the sidewalk and theyíre even closing some streets on the weekends. And the school thing is just a ticking time bomb. Unprecedented times seem to be unprecedented. (And no, the Spanish Flu wasnít the same.)

    Thereís no easy answers but just spreading this stuff around because what ya gonna do? isnít the answer. Sorry if that doesnít meet the ďStylez I Need To Know Long Term Plans Right Now Because I Have To Have Something To ***** About.Ē
    I'm not advocating the "do nothing" position, but the destruction of this virus can't be limited to deaths it causes directly. The economic devastation we are projecting are going to have huge secondary consequences and in suicides, drug overdoses, murders, and death from exposure by the newly homeless it's going to have a significant death toll too. People seem to talk like this is a one solution issue ... and the reality is that there is no real solution yet which is why even educated people are doing different things from each other.

    Personally my family is staying home and being careful, but we are lucky in that our schools are doing a very good job having online classes that are actually somewhat better than the in-person classes because the guest lecturers they are able to get right now are so much better than the usual. We have also worked out a group of a few families we know where our kids are going to go (masked and distanced) to "school" at one of their houses where one of the parents is a teacher, just because some kids can't really cope with learning in their own bedrooms. But we are lucky to have these options. A lot of people are beyond desperate already and I'm not going to judge them for not liking the only option offered thus far.

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chronz View Post
    Thoughts on reaching some form of herd immunity? Heard we need about 20% of a population (not sure on density numbers) to get there as opposed to the 70% floating around. Have deaths dropped in ny after letting it run rampant?
    I think the 20% is a T cell theory and there is not a lot of proof on it. If it were true though, our cases wouldnt be spike as much now. Given how transmissible this is, and its been int he country for 8-9 months- a lot of places would be above that number right now.

    NY is declining because after Cuomos screw up of sending positive cases back into nursing homes all over NYC- They have done a great job protecting the most vulnerable. Also- a huge portion of the vulnerable individuals died in April. BTW- The testing wasnt available, but in late march NYC was seeing a 40% rate in positive cases. Its a virtual guarantee that if they had sufficient testing- they would have been seeing 50-70 thousand cases a day for like a month. Most of NY has probably far exceeded that 20%.

    agreed though- reaching herd immunity while trying to limit deaths would be a plan that included keeping the vulnerable in a bubble for 3-4 months. You would also have to have the media be honest about different groups chances of surviving. Right now- they will bring up anecdotal situations where a 34 year old died from this and suggest that means this could happen to any healthy person in their 30s. (Reality is that 34 yr old had a lung replacement when they were 19, had severe asthma and have been smoking 2 packs a day for 17 years.)- also a 1/4500 case for people in that age group.

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chronz View Post
    Depends on how they define a Corona death over that time period. Doctors getting threatened if they reveal too much truth might inflate the numbers as they already have.

    Also are you certain it will ever be over?
    No, but I think it will fade over time ... but will probably mutate and get a different name.

  7. #82
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    T-cell theory basically assumes that anybody who has had any serious covid illness or respiratory virus in the last 6-12 months has some level of immunity. It assumes that in most places around 20% of people are likely to contract covid.

    seems if that were true- based off how fast this spreads.... we wouldnt be seeing many cases 9 months in.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scoots View Post
    Just curious ... what do you think the FINAL death toll will be for this Corona Virus? We're over 700k now and no indication it's stopping any time soon. I think it's fairly likely the death toll will continue to climb well over 1M this year and will continue with 6 digit deaths the next several years. It may well surpass that 3.5M.
    I think saddle was referring to 3.5 million people dieing in the US. Assuming thats the 1% number. I personally think the US would hit herd immunity with less than half that number of deaths if they locked down the elderly and kept them in a bubble for the next 6 months. Correct me if Im wrong Saddle, but thats how I read it.


    Saddle seems to think the goal should be to do everything possible to limit people dieing from this regardless of what it costs the lions share of people who are not as significant risk of dieing from this. Considering any form of balance or strategy that attempts to address both sides of this problem is seen as being willing to compromise Grandma and Grandpa, and it means you dont value human lives. So lock down everything is the only acceptable "plan"
    Last edited by likemystylez; 08-05-2020 at 10:34 AM.

  9. #84
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    Immunity has to be a safe assumption, otherwise how would a vaccine even work?

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by likemystylez View Post
    LOl talk about over blowing it? Kids are not dieing from this at a rate anywhere near warranting reasonable fear of them losing their lives to this.

    But more to the point- it isnt as simple as catching up on multiplication tables. particularly for younger kids (under 12). Missing extensive time interacting with their peers is a concern going forward in their life. ESP when its an entire generation. I wont even get into the problems with schools being a source of nutrition and a resourse to identify abuse going on at home. Keeping kids out of school indefinitely should be viewed as a problem that isnt as simple of a fix as "Kids can catch up later"
    Forgot about the surge in domestic abuse, more children suffering and entering depression. This is one huge social experiment that will have long lasting effects if sustained much longer.

    Gonna check the studies on kids since there seems to be new ones since I last broached the topic

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chronz View Post
    Immunity has to be a safe assumption, otherwise how would a vaccine even work?
    Well theoretically- A vaccine would not be 100% effective, but it would limit the carriers of this disease and (some people say limit the severity of many cases). Limiting the carriers would limit the probability of people coming into contact with it and hopefully bring deaths down to a more acceptable number. A vaccine would likely have to be in use for 4 or 5 years before we had an idea of how well it was working for the entire country.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by likemystylez View Post
    T-cell theory basically assumes that anybody who has had any serious covid illness or respiratory virus in the last 6-12 months has some level of immunity. It assumes that in most places around 20% of people are likely to contract covid.

    seems if that were true- based off how fast this spreads.... we wouldnt be seeing many cases 9 months in.
    I've seen projections that the immunity, if it exits, may be just 2 months. It's annoying we still don't have concrete answers to these questions.

  13. #88
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    I would gladly have the 2020-21 NBA season all 82 games in a Bubble...I would gladly do it with all 30 NBA teams in a Bubble

  14. #89
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    I dont know **** about it but the MLB seems to be going on despite what many feared happening, heard all the athletes are basically asymptomatic.

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by likemystylez View Post
    OK so have the kids go back to school and let them socialize with other kids. Have them wear a mask around Grandma and Grandpa or have Grandma and grandpa wear N95's. Or limit interactions with The grandparents to zoom for a few more months.

    Is that plan 100% guaranteed to not cause a single death? No-Neither is our current way of life though. Its a reasonable plan to address the childrens need to develop and societies need to keep the vulnerable safe.

    The median age of people who are dying from this is like 78 or 79. People under 55 dying from this are basically statistical outliers. The idea that every age group should completely give away their lives and futures indefinitely while we wait for a vaccine has got to stop being thought of as realistic. A vaccine could help- atleast 50 or 60 thousand people will die from this every year even with a vaccine (Probably more the next few years).
    You passionate about being able to go to Applebeeís. I admire that


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