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View Poll Results: Who is the G.O.A.T at their absolute peak?

Voters
9. You may not vote on this poll
  • Kobe Bryant

    0 0%
  • Kevin Durant

    2 22.22%
  • Dwyane Wade

    1 11.11%
  • Stephen Curry

    1 11.11%
  • Kawhi Leonard

    3 33.33%
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo

    0 0%
  • Kevin Garnett

    1 11.11%
  • Julius Erving

    0 0%
  • Bill Walton

    0 0%
  • Oscar Robertson

    0 0%
  • Elgin Baylor

    0 0%
  • Jerry West

    0 0%
  • Charles Barkley

    0 0%
  • Dirk Nowitzki

    0 0%
  • Karl Malone

    0 0%
  • David Robinson

    0 0%
  • James Harden

    0 0%
  • Isiah Thomas

    0 0%
  • Scottie Pippen

    0 0%
  • Rick Barry

    1 11.11%
  • John Havlicek

    0 0%
  • Tracy McGrady

    0 0%
  • Allen Iverson

    0 0%
  • Steve Nash

    0 0%
  • Chris Paul

    0 0%
  • John Stockton

    0 0%
  • Patrick Ewing

    0 0%
  • Willis Reed

    0 0%
  • Russell Westbrook

    0 0%
  • Clyde Drexler

    0 0%
Page 6 of 6 FirstFirst ... 456
Results 76 to 88 of 88
  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnicksorBust View Post
    I never said they were?

    What I am saying, which is true, is that if two players are both equally productive than the player that plays more minutes is more impactful. That's not a stretch.



    In my opinion, sometimes it's okay to use raw data. Everything doesn't have to be a rate stat that is per 48 minutes or per 100 possessions. Like many people will claim Allen Iverson was overrated because his stats aren't as efficient as other players but I watched him and those Sixers teams needed him to put up that volume 30 points per game and kill himself playing 40 minutes per game. If he was a more efficient 24 mpg player then they would never have seen a finals. That, and I apologize if I'm wrong, is a place where we fundamentally disagree.



    It is actually the exact opposite. You straw man me again.





    Your APM study didn't prove anything. You can't just link your way through an argument and claim you are doing work. Your broad generalizations and links don't prove anything. It is similar to how you wanted to use Andre Drummond to prove PER was flawed and then I used Nate MacMillan to use APM being flawed and then you claimed "YOU WANT STATS TO MAKE THE ARGUMENT!" I was just using your own logic against you.



    Statistics have noise. I'm aware that is what I pointed out to you about APM but you repeated it 3x that it has proved something about Moses.



    Again I didn't say KD was the "most impactful." Another straw man. Curry was the most impactful. I know the plus/minus and on/off court data for Curry is staggering and far superior to KD but KD was the best player on those teams in the Finals. Yet he gets no credit. That is my point.

    If Jordan was on a loaded team I believe there are people that would never have called him the GOAT. To your credit, at least you admitted that in his prime we would have recognized his superior play. At those times both LeBron in Miami and Durant in GS almost weren't allowed by some people to be recognized for their greatness because they took easier paths to championships. That is fine from a legacy perspective but Durant was an assassin in the 2017 Finals and yet I feel like no one will ever get that performance credit. There was almost nothing he could do to impress people because he was on the Warriors. From a legacy perspective, I can understand it but from a talent perspective it is clear how great he was playing.
    What I am saying, which is true, is that if two players are both equally productive than the player that plays more minutes is more impactful. That's not a stretch.
    Lmao yes it is. If anything, literally the opposite is true. If two players have the exact same production, but one player does so on less minutes, then he's literally more productive per possession than the other player.


    Your APM study didn't prove anything. You can't just link your way through an argument and claim you are doing work. Your broad generalizations and links don't prove anything. It is similar to how you wanted to use Andre Drummond to prove PER was flawed and then I used Nate MacMillan to use APM being flawed and then you claimed "YOU WANT STATS TO MAKE THE ARGUMENT!" I was just using your own logic against you.
    I literally explained why Nate and Kerr's numbers were what they were. The difference between the metrics I'm using and what you're using is the metrics I'm using are literally just recording what actually happened. PER is just arbitrarily adding up box score numbers to try and spit out some lump sum value. I will breakdown in detail why Moses's peak was not all time level.

    Moses's APM was +4.4 on the '83 Sixers, which roughly equates to a strong All NBA/weak MVP level impact. This means that the Sixers had roughly a +4.4 net rating with Moses on the court. We can mostly rule out lineup shenanigans, teammate influence, etc. due to Moses leading the team in minutes. Since he played roughly 80% of all available minutes, we can reasonably assume that he encountered a ton of lineup variety, which again, generally rules out his numbers being weirdly skewed.

    Okay, so let's contextualize that +4.4. I've already said 2004 is an all time great season by KG, so for reference, his adjusted plus minus was a staggering +11.5, indicating an all time level impact. Alright, so maybe you want to say KG's number is inflated because he had bad teammates (this is actually a really bad and nonsensical argument, but we'll use it anyways to pivot to another example). Let's look at 2011 LeBron James, where he was playing with a still in prime Wade. He still clocks in at +7.3, a strong, MVP level/best player in the league level impact. Now let me indulge and look at someone who I think has a peak more in line with Moses, 2000 Alonzo Mourning, his definitive MVP level season, clear best player on the team, etc. Mourning's APM is +5.9, which feels harmonious with the level of impact Moses had in '83.

    We can even say that APM is too noisy and that it either underrates or overrates Moses. For your sake let's say it underrates him. As I've already mentioned he played roughly 80% of all available minutes, so I don't think his on the court impact is getting siphoned from a specific teammate, however let's say that some of it is. How much higher can Moses possibly be? +5? Sure, that's reasonable. Should we double his APM? +8.8?? That feels egregious, and I don't see a justifiable argument to do so. The point here is that we could give Moses even more credit than his APM suggests and it's still not in the ball park of the all time greats.

    We can move on from APM however. It sounds like you don't like it because there are some wonky low minute or lineup related outliers, which I've already explained. But still, if you want to have a more emotional based approach instead of trying to contextualize the data you're looking at that's fine, we can move on to another metric.

    Let's look at his PIPM, which has a luck adjustment methodology that attempts to acknowledge on the court variances that teams don't have control over. In '83 Moses clocks in at +4.8, which again, suggests a strong all NBA/weak MVP level lift. In terms of PIPM wins added he hovers around 16, again a weak MVP level impact, with the next best player on his team Julius Erving hovering around 11 wins added, which is an All NBA level impact. See, now we're closing in on terms to try and determine how much better Moses was than his second best teammate, what that gap looked like, and ultimately what it means for Moses's overall impact at an individual level. This totally aligns with their win pace increase as well from '82 to '83.

    Let's move on to WOWYR (With or Without You, Regressed), with admittedly takes a more prime based approach instead of peak, but is still useful in the breadcrumb trail it provides to help paint a larger picture. WOWYR is a game level study, so perhaps it's some you're more attuned to. Regardless, I recommend reading more about it here: https://backpicks.com/metrics/wowyr/

    Diving into Moses' prime ('77-86), we can see that he hovered around 2.8, with a variability of 0.6, suggesting he may have peaked around 4 in a single season. This aligns with his APM, PIPM, and Wins Added estimate, again, helping paint the picture of a low MVP level peak.

    To toss in a few other pieces of data that more or less align: Backpicks BPM, bball reference BPM, and WS/48 all paint his peak in the same terms as previously described. Impact metrics will never tell the whole story, but they're especially useful when they are all painting the same picture.

    We can move on to more footage based analysis, which is actually my favorite way of going about things. It's visible on tape that beyond the obvious elements of his game (all time great rebounding), he was a viable iso scorer, but was unable to create for teammates. Both on tape and in the numbers (weak box creation, horrid passer rating), it's clear he's an incredibly poor passer, limiting the overall scalability of his offense. Watching him on defense for more than two seconds and it's incredibly obvious his defense does not scale well either. In the era of three second violations he wouldn't be able to paint dwell, and he didn't have the skill set or mobility to deal with modern pick and roll sets. (Happy to provide film on this if you'd like.)

    All of this suggests the same idea, that his peak was not transcendent, not all time level, and would not scale particularly well in the modern era. In terms of scoring value he was 22.8 per 75 on +5 rTS. Which, shockingly, once again, is a good, but not all time great scoring season. Other studies, such has Ben Taylor's COPR valuations, which are largely season to season studies driven by film as much as they are numbers, have come to the same conclusion.





    I'm not going to address all the points about abstract greatness or legacy or whatever because that's not really something I care about. When this question is asked all I'm really concerned about is looking at his makes their team better, who improves their team's chances the win the most? And Moses falls way short in that context.


    So now that I've elaborated on my point further, I'd like you to expound upon yours. Are you able to move away from PER and Win Shares and derive his value on the '83 Sixers team using another approach? If so, please elaborate. After you've elaborated on this, please then contextualize his '83 impact versus someone like KG in 04, or '77 Bill Walton, or even someone like '08 Kobe.

    We have all these sign posts implying the same thing, so I'm wondering what all you're looking at and seeing that leads you to believe the exact opposite.
    Last edited by VCaintdead17; 07-31-2020 at 01:12 PM.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chronz View Post
    Nate mcmillen was arguably a better defender than gp. Don't trash him
    YESSSSS. W O K E. Nate was such a per minute beast lol

  3. #78
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    Also if we really wanted to engage with a PER and Win Shares approach only, Moses's peak single season PER is 113th, and his single season Win Shares peak is 97th.....so uhhhhh......

  4. #79
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    Somebody seems to have a lot of time on their hands now that Vince Carter finally retired.

  5. #80
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    WE mightve over done it with Moses guys. IDK, was the NBA that weak that he just stood out more than he normally would from a narrative standpoint (drug a sub.500 squad to the Finals and then swept everyone with Philly).

    Quote Originally Posted by VCaintdead17 View Post
    Also if we really wanted to engage with a PER and Win Shares approach only, Moses's peak single season PER is 113th, and his single season Win Shares peak is 97th.....so uhhhhh......
    What is the greater accomplishment in that regard, leading the league in a PER type stat or having a higher overall number?

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saddletramp View Post
    Curry was never better than KD before Kerr came along. But your anti-Durant bias is showing so Iíll just let it go.



    Still put me down for Durant, tho
    I beg to differ, he convincingly got more out of his teams talent base, thats what I broke down anyways. KD had that magical Finals run with a stacked squad but he needed a historically talent laiden team to win. No guarantee of that if you draft him here whereas with Curry, I can make any star player shine brighter.

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    you are better then this... you spew your facts and **** but ignore those statistical facts with KD... you like others and this is shocking because its you.... people put way to much stock in rings... I dont care if KD won 1 or 10... won 10 with curry or 1 by himself... its the same stupid **** lebron has dealt with forever and the same stupid **** that furthers people like kobe but then gets ignored when discussing stockton/malone/iverson and so very many others....
    I have my own facts and stats. Its not about rings, it is about how you impact your teams winning tho. KD never proved his greatness and if anything, he and Curry both deserve to be thought of in lesser light because they were 2 in prime competitors that had just squared off and had a great series, one where Curry was superior btw. Ill take Wade before KD and Curry thats for sure. Wade always rose to the occassion when he was healthy, when he wasn't healthy he gutted out gritty performances. Check KD's playoff resume after that 1 Finals run that arguably wasn't even as impressive as several of Curry's, including last years.

    ITS A ****ING TEAM SPORT... Why has tmac never made it or cp3???? go look at their playoff performances while they lost... I will wait. Go look at tmacs stats and tell me he deserved to lose? or cp3... stop with the hypocritical ******** because it only continues to show the bias and stupidity and that goes for any idiot on this board that continues to down play durant because he went to the warriors but then has 0 issues with the super teams that magic/bird and so very many others played with... everyone speaks about okc and the help durant had but westy has done what now and got traded and couldnt do anything even with pg13? maybe just maybe we should stop picking and choosing our arguments and get the bias out of the way and look at the body of work we judge others on......
    I've seen the numbers, make your statistical case cuz Im not seeing it. Those super teams squared off against each other, with about 3 or 4 other credible threats most years (tho usually in the East). What KD did is like joining one of those super teams to make it a ****ing joke. You could tell when they would just coast to easy victories too. Congrats KD, you were part of prolly the greatest team in NBA history and definitely its most talented squad overall. Thats why you're actually the one overrating his accomplishments, IDC about his ring. Nobody should value it the way we value other rings from players of similar stature. RWB making the playoffs isn't exactly nothing, its more than what.... say Bron's teams would have done without him, or Tmac's or Wade's etc...

    is durant a *****... yup... is he incredible... your damn right. Was he the best player on all of those warriors teams? your damn right...
    Disagree, if that were true the team should have shown some hint at being at its best with him at the helm instead of mountains of evidence that show Curry was the true driving force, the difference between a great team and a historic one comes down to the more influential player, thats Curry by a mile. KD just won FMVP, thats it. Thats partly why Curry is so great, he can make role players into FMVP, what did you think he would unlock from a historic player like KD? LOL, KD will be named shortly dont get butt hurt. I just dont put him in the same light as some of you seem to and definitely not ahead of Curry.


    Yet we sit here and say not a damn thing about klay/dray/curry who begged this man to save them from big bad lebron when the cavs figured the warriors out...
    Even with GS "all figured out", it took a suspension/injuries and a pivotal player to have the choke of his life with regards to WIDE OPEN MISSED SHOTS in Harrison Barnes to squeak out a G7 victory. Fare to say they didn't exactly need a KD type to win, hell just Harrison Barnes recovering to form ala Manu Ginobili after his choke vs the Heat when he looked done, would have won the Dubs the title in easier fashion. We should have entered our version of the 80's with several great, in their prime players leading quality squads against each other. Instead KD hopped on Curry's dick.

    And is it confirmed that all 3 begged, pretty sure it was just Draymond, splash bros prolly didn't give a ****.

    if you are gonna spew this dumb crap then you must think the logo is the goat right?
    In a peak debate, hes definitely more admirable than KD. IDK if hes on par with KD but I think we underrate his ability to change his game depending on his teammates. We give MJ credit and say he would develop his 3 ball more today, but West was already a legit marksman AND would have benefitted from the lax ball handling rules of today so he would be a better playmaker. Assists are relatively easier to get now too. If this thread were about 4 year peaks, Wests run from the moment he lost Elgin to the Finals MVP in a Loss would prolly have already gone imo. Im kind of regretting my Moses vote but IDK, these comps are hard.

    or that pippen is a top 15 player ever because jordan couldnt do **** without him right?
    Thats actually a falsehood, MJ accomplished alot given his talent base. His only semi-struggle was against a DPOY defender as a rookie, he rung up huge numbers against the greatest team of all time (outside the Dubs prolly) and pushed the Bad Boys harder than most when Pip was a pup. When Pippen became All-Star caliber, he pushed the champs to 7 despite that first time all-stars struggles. MJ also carried those Bulls when Pippen was sapped by his bad back in that final season. We also have ample evidence of his impact on those Bull's efficiency over the years, suffice it to say its goat level.

    Why would curry/klay/dray need to take this man out to dinner and say he can have the mvps etc?
    LOL, is that true? Prolly for the same reason KD was practically creaming himself when the Dubs barely lost, I have no doubt he would have joined the Dubs regardless but he really enjoyed the potential of that narrative when he was salivating at all the open looks he would get (im serious, theres talk that he was imagining open shots and layups galore watching them play). Then when it all came to fruition he saw how empty those awards were and how nobody would ever accept him as the savior but as a hired gun to take out a true GOAT candidate. So in the end Draymond called him a female dog, made the Finals without him and sent his hurt soul packing to join his kindred spirit in Brooklyn.


    why do we ignore the teams that magic was on or bird was on but then **** on the tmacs/cp3 who never had anything close to those all time greats?
    I dont, you just contextualize the impact and productivity to the best of ones ability and make your decision. Also, its hard to blame some guys who have left little doubt in their abilities to lead a team in a team game.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by VCaintdead17 View Post
    Lmao yes it is. If anything, literally the opposite is true. If two players have the exact same production, but one player does so on less minutes, then he's literally more productive per possession than the other player.
    You are missing my point here. I'll keep it simple. Moses Malone is a great player. As a coach, I have the choice to play him 15 minutes, 25 minutes, or 35 minutes. Which will help my team win the most? Playing him the greatest amount of minutes. If two players are similar in skills like Kobe and Wade, however, Wade only played 25 minutes per game Kobe was playing 35 minutes per game then Kobe is helping his team win more because they were getting an extra 10 minutes of that same caliber play. Do you get it now? Not being a jerk.


    I literally explained why Nate and Kerr's numbers were what they were. The difference between the metrics I'm using and what you're using is the metrics I'm using are literally just recording what actually happened. PER is just arbitrarily adding up box score numbers to try and spit out some lump sum value. I will breakdown in detail why Moses's peak was not all time level.

    Moses's APM was +4.4 on the '83 Sixers, which roughly equates to a strong All NBA/weak MVP level impact. This means that the Sixers had roughly a +4.4 net rating with Moses on the court. We can mostly rule out lineup shenanigans, teammate influence, etc. due to Moses leading the team in minutes. Since he played roughly 80% of all available minutes, we can reasonably assume that he encountered a ton of lineup variety, which again, generally rules out his numbers being weirdly skewed.

    Okay, so let's contextualize that +4.4. I've already said 2004 is an all time great season by KG, so for reference, his adjusted plus minus was a staggering +11.5, indicating an all time level impact. Alright, so maybe you want to say KG's number is inflated because he had bad teammates (this is actually a really bad and nonsensical argument, but we'll use it anyways to pivot to another example). Let's look at 2011 LeBron James, where he was playing with a still in prime Wade. He still clocks in at +7.3, a strong, MVP level/best player in the league level impact. Now let me indulge and look at someone who I think has a peak more in line with Moses, 2000 Alonzo Mourning, his definitive MVP level season, clear best player on the team, etc. Mourning's APM is +5.9, which feels harmonious with the level of impact Moses had in '83.

    We can even say that APM is too noisy and that it either underrates or overrates Moses. For your sake let's say it underrates him. As I've already mentioned he played roughly 80% of all available minutes, so I don't think his on the court impact is getting siphoned from a specific teammate, however let's say that some of it is. How much higher can Moses possibly be? +5? Sure, that's reasonable. Should we double his APM? +8.8?? That feels egregious, and I don't see a justifiable argument to do so. The point here is that we could give Moses even more credit than his APM suggests and it's still not in the ball park of the all time greats.

    We can move on from APM however. It sounds like you don't like it because there are some wonky low minute or lineup related outliers, which I've already explained. But still, if you want to have a more emotional based approach instead of trying to contextualize the data you're looking at that's fine, we can move on to another metric.

    Let's look at his PIPM, which has a luck adjustment methodology that attempts to acknowledge on the court variances that teams don't have control over. In '83 Moses clocks in at +4.8, which again, suggests a strong all NBA/weak MVP level lift. In terms of PIPM wins added he hovers around 16, again a weak MVP level impact, with the next best player on his team Julius Erving hovering around 11 wins added, which is an All NBA level impact. See, now we're closing in on terms to try and determine how much better Moses was than his second best teammate, what that gap looked like, and ultimately what it means for Moses's overall impact at an individual level. This totally aligns with their win pace increase as well from '82 to '83.

    Let's move on to WOWYR (With or Without You, Regressed), with admittedly takes a more prime based approach instead of peak, but is still useful in the breadcrumb trail it provides to help paint a larger picture. WOWYR is a game level study, so perhaps it's some you're more attuned to. Regardless, I recommend reading more about it here: https://backpicks.com/metrics/wowyr/

    Diving into Moses' prime ('77-86), we can see that he hovered around 2.8, with a variability of 0.6, suggesting he may have peaked around 4 in a single season. This aligns with his APM, PIPM, and Wins Added estimate, again, helping paint the picture of a low MVP level peak.

    To toss in a few other pieces of data that more or less align: Backpicks BPM, bball reference BPM, and WS/48 all paint his peak in the same terms as previously described. Impact metrics will never tell the whole story, but they're especially useful when they are all painting the same picture.

    We can move on to more footage based analysis, which is actually my favorite way of going about things. It's visible on tape that beyond the obvious elements of his game (all time great rebounding), he was a viable iso scorer, but was unable to create for teammates. Both on tape and in the numbers (weak box creation, horrid passer rating), it's clear he's an incredibly poor passer, limiting the overall scalability of his offense. Watching him on defense for more than two seconds and it's incredibly obvious his defense does not scale well either. In the era of three second violations he wouldn't be able to paint dwell, and he didn't have the skill set or mobility to deal with modern pick and roll sets. (Happy to provide film on this if you'd like.)

    All of this suggests the same idea, that his peak was not transcendent, not all time level, and would not scale particularly well in the modern era. In terms of scoring value he was 22.8 per 75 on +5 rTS. Which, shockingly, once again, is a good, but not all time great scoring season. Other studies, such has Ben Taylor's COPR valuations, which are largely season to season studies driven by film as much as they are numbers, have come to the same conclusion.





    I'm not going to address all the points about abstract greatness or legacy or whatever because that's not really something I care about. When this question is asked all I'm really concerned about is looking at his makes their team better, who improves their team's chances the win the most? And Moses falls way short in that context.


    So now that I've elaborated on my point further, I'd like you to expound upon yours. Are you able to move away from PER and Win Shares and derive his value on the '83 Sixers team using another approach? If so, please elaborate. After you've elaborated on this, please then contextualize his '83 impact versus someone like KG in 04, or '77 Bill Walton, or even someone like '08 Kobe.

    We have all these sign posts implying the same thing, so I'm wondering what all you're looking at and seeing that leads you to believe the exact opposite.
    Look my wife is putting my 4 year old twins to bed tonight. I'm drunk and playing online poker so there's no way I'm diving into this right now. I'll just be honest, I love basketball. It's my favorite sport by a mile. I have spent an insane amount of time of youth and adult life watching games. But that didn't start until the 90s. I'm not embarrassed to admit that I've barely seen Moses play and you make a very compelling argument. Maybe you're right and he shouldn't have gone there. I was just afraid Wade was going to win so I backed up Chronz and based on accolades/stats/team success he certainly seemed deserving.

    You and I fundamentally disagree on a couple of key points but I respect your arguments and hopefully we can have a great Kevin Garnett vs. Bill Walton vs. Kevin Durant debate in peak ranking #14. Hope to see you in that thread. I'm moving on from this one.


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  9. #84
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    I know you mean well and aren't being disingenuous in your arguments, which I really appreciate. You should hop on the PSD Discord to talk hoops man. We got a good thing going in there.

  10. #85
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    The Bill Walton one should be interesting given his lack of dominant individual statistics, hes very much like Bill Russell in how the intangibles define their impact on winning teams.

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by VCaintdead17 View Post
    I know you mean well and aren't being disingenuous in your arguments, which I really appreciate. You should hop on the PSD Discord to talk hoops man. We got a good thing going in there.
    What's PSD Discord?


    Kristaps Porzingis
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  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chronz View Post
    I beg to differ, he convincingly got more out of his teams talent base, thats what I broke down anyways. KD had that magical Finals run with a stacked squad but he needed a historically talent laiden team to win. No guarantee of that if you draft him here whereas with Curry, I can make any star player shine brighter.
    I like how apparently Durant is only great in the right situation but Curry is the reason anyone is great that plays with him. One guy has an MVP and multiple Finals MVP with different teams while the other guy has only found success with one coach/one core.


    But I keep regurgitating the same responses to your regurgitated takes.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saddletramp View Post
    I like how apparently Durant is only great in the right situation but Curry is the reason anyone is great that plays with him. One guy has an MVP and multiple Finals MVP with different teams while the other guy has only found success with one coach/one core.


    But I keep regurgitating the same responses to your regurgitated takes.
    If curry hasn't found success outside of that core then how has KD? He consistently got less out of his teams talent and produced less individually than Curry before he ever hooked up with Kerr.

    What you're arguing is like saying mj didn't prove **** without Phil, kobe too.

    You're definitely regurgitating but you're not actually addressing anything. Try using objective evidence in ur next attempt, like actually show us.

    And to clarify, kd only won a single mvp. Curry won 2, he turned Iggy into a FMVP, what did you think he would unlock in a guy like KD? Why should a single series (where the opposing coach admits to focusing on curry btw) matter more than the entirety of their time together anyways? We already know kd couldn't lead that same core in the ways that curry had so how exactly is kd supposed to prove your point? Any examples or just more unsubstantiated regurgitation?

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