2020 Game Day Thread

[crewfan13]

Also want to point out. I'm not saying we can't spend or trade for guys. But one thing that I'm hoping to achieve is that we can try to figure out ways to compete and not have it be a situation where we need everything to go perfectly.

At the end of the day, we have yeli, hiura, woody, houser and burnes under contract for 4+ years a peice. That's the real core to me. Hader has 3 years left and is a massive asset that fits with that core. To a slightly lesser extent, guys like Devin Williams (looked great but I'd like to see a bit more before I elevate him), Peralta and urias all fit that 4 year window as well. To an even lesser extent, guys like Yardley, Lauer, lindblom, suter and maybe like Ray black or Bobby Wahl are guys who can fill certain roles for a few years as well.

But looking at our farm, there's not a ton of quick fill options at many spots. C might have some guys coming. Maybe some OF/CF could come soonish if Mitchell can advance quickly, but lately I think we've all learned not to expect quick advancement in our org. SP could get Small or Ashby at some point too. There may be some decent RP in the works with a Rasmussen and maybe others. But to me, if we need to do a mini reset for this year and maybe next to try to capitalize on the last 2 years or so of that 4 year window for the core I laid out above, that may be the best course of action.

Future lineup exercises are kind of dumb. I'll fully admit that. But here's what it could look like.

C-Narvaez/Feliciano/Henry probably not elite but this could be servicable

1B-pretty much nothing. Dillard maybe? Maybe an OF moves in?

2B-hiura has it on lock down unless he moves positions or goes permanent DH. He looks servicable enough to stay though. Urias could play here if needed.

SS-Urias, turang, Arcia (puke) but there's enough talent here to think we might be okay here.

3B-virtually nothing. Perhaps one of the SS shifts here, but it's likely going to be nothing or a pretty big minus at the plate.

OF-Yeli is the core. Garcia could be signed for another 2 years after his contract possibly. Cain has a little time left on his deal. Mitchell is our top prospect. Maybe Ray make a Grisham turn and figures something out. Couple other upside prospects that could break out. Wouldn't turn down a potential corner Of stud in a deal, but OF is probably not a priority. That being said, last time we all thought we were kind of set at OF we traded for Yeli and signed Cain.

SP-woody, houser and burnes are looking like solid long term bets. Small and Ashby have some upside, although small is a mid to back of the rotation innings guy to me. Lauer might be okay. Maybe Freddy starts or maybe he's a stud RP. Lindblom still has some time to figure it out. I'd absolutely take a stud SP in a deal, but our long term outlook at SP isn't horrible.

RP-Hader and Williams highlight. Freddy could be a big asset. I like Rasmussen alot. Some lesser guys like Yardley, suter, black ect could stick. Minors guys like Kelly could possibly take off in a relief role. You can never have too many and they can be super volatile, but I don't mind our bullpen makeup in a longer term outlook too. We also have a tendency to pick guys who have unique attributes in the draft, and those guys tend to end up in RP roles, like Hader and Freddy, so I don't think thats a future spot I'd focus on bolstering at this exact moment.

I look at the roster and even in the 2+ year outlook, we don't look too bad at alot of spots. Some guys slightly or greatly exceeding expectations, like Feliciano or Urias living up to his prospect billing would be huge. If Mitchell taps his potential, then great. But we need something at 1st and/or 3rd. I'm not 100% sure how to get that guy, but it feels like Hader is our best chip to get someone like that.

[jay87shot]

Agreed, trading Hader could get us 1 or 2 1B/3B/RF propsects and a couple pitchers. I haven't heard any rumblings on Hader but I think they will come since they were there in the offseason. Arizona would be an interesting place for Hader. We could get 4 really good prospects that aren't really high rated but would fit the team well and Arizona would kind of be exchanging Hader for Grienke in terms of prospect capital.

Here is my idea Hader and a utility guy (Holt, Sogard, Mathias) for OF Corbin Carroll, 1B Seth Beer, P Bryce Jarvis, P Levi Kelly

We would get Arizona 5, 7,10, 14 prospects. Carroll is younger but is like Brice Turang but an OF, Beer reminds me of Yordan Alvarez with the DH coming he would be a great 1B/DH middle of the order bat, Jarvis and Kelly both are likely 3/4 type starters with upside which kind of seems to be Stearns m/o. Even though there aren't any super high prospects that would be 4 high floor prospects that would really fill out our system and even in the case of Beer and Kelly be able to help us this year.

[gopackgo87]

Stearns has been pretty good the last few years finding some guys and I get the org. love for versatile guys, but do we really need them filling nearly every position? How many versatile MI types do you need? Also in today's day and age why the fu** do the Brewers have 4 or 5 guys who are small, not that fast, limited pop? Come the f on. Rather have a guy with an elite skill then guys who have zero special about them, mediocre at a lot of things good at none. This lineup is brutal. Navigate past Yeli throw high cheese to Hiura and this lineup is nothing. I actually kind of liked the Garcia signing quite a bit. Like the young pen arms but this team has so many holes offensively the pen is tough to get a lead to.

Also, not sure who said it, the Brewers are going to keep sending Lindblom out there. Signed a 3-year deal.

As for the potential deals in a 60-game season not going to be many sellers. The Angels, maybe Bundy for rotation, La Stella wouldn't cost much for a bat...ROyals...maybe Maikel Franco to play 3B. A couple names...maybe Pillar to play CF from Boston, Michael Taylor from Nats...guys that wouldn't cost much.

[jay87shot]

Agreed maybe 2 versatile guys to be bench/utility guys, if you combine what we pay Sogard, Holt, and Gyorko we could have got one nice bat at around 10 million and had a guy like Mathias (and Urias) fill in the spots super cheap. I like the names you mentioned Pillar or Taylor would be great in the OF. Not big on Franco rather stick to Sogard/Gyorko at 3rd. I think Lindblom could be shifted to a long relief position, I can't see us letting him lose because of the cheap 3 year deal. I would give hime a couple relief appearances and then give him another go in a couple weeks.

Would David Phelps have any trade value? He has been great and with Williams pitching so well I don't think we would be hurting late in games.

Still haven't heard any rumors with the Brewers other than Stearns saying that the Reds series would decide alot.

[crewfan13]

Have to imagine Phelps has a touch of value but in a shortened season, who knows. The needs to be on the 60 man alternate site roster thing could be interesting. Typically you'd think maybe you get a lottery ticket type of prospect foe him, but most teams dont have a boatload of those guys at the alt site.

I know it won't happen, but I'd love to go full seller and deal Hader and Phelps. You could possibly move them both to the same team and use Phelps as a guy to push the deal over the top. Maybe he helps get the #4 prospect from a team instead of the #7 or something.

[jay87shot]

I like the idea of combining Hader and Phelps to bump up the value of a prospect in a trade. I have been thinking the Padres would make some sense, they need pen help and have plenty of prospects. Really almost every contender could use a Josh Hader so if he is available there could/should be a bidding war for him.

Would it make sense to try and sign Woodruff to a long term deal. Like Peralta but at a higher rate. With his stuff I see him being a pitcher who could easily get 20+ on the market in a few years. If we give him more no we likely could buy out a free agent year or 2 and save money and get more control. Maybe the same fore Houser but on a more simialar deal to Peralta.

[crewfan13]

That's the thing with Hader and his years of control. It's not even out of the question that a team like boston, who isn't contending this year, could be in on him too if we say we're selling to the best offer.

Reports today are that we're listening to calls on Hader but the asking price according to one GM is bananas. I think that's a solid approach at this exact moment. No need to trade him today unless we're blown away. But as the deadline arrives, I dont mind if we come down a touch. Not sure what a fair offer is or what a ridiculous asking price looks like, but if we get a guy who looks like he could be a 3-5 type of hitter in the near future, I think we have to pull the trigger. Hader is going to get really expensive soon and we need 1 more legit bat.

And I'm not super against Hader or anything. We just need a bat so bad. I know Cain threw a bit of a wrench into the equation, but not that much. So far this year we've had 7 different guys hit 4th for us. Smoak has done it the most and he's only done it 9 times. That should be a spot in the lineup that's set it and forget it. You're 1-5 spots should be the same 75% of the time. Maybe you slide some guys up or down due to a platoon. And maybe with a platoon, you shift the order a hair to stay righty/lefty more, but there's no reason that 28 games into a season you should have had that many #4 hitters and your most common #4 guy starting there less than a third of the games.

It's not just sustainable to pull a legit middle of the order bat out of your *** in free agency every year. We got lucky that the thames/Aggy combo worked and shaw had some good years, but that stuff isn't sustainable every year. Finding guys we can just plug and play at 1-5 at least would be great. Ideally with a DH we could get 1-6 or 7 pretty consistent, but we can't even get 1-4 consistent.

[gopackgo87]

That's the thing with Hader and his years of control. It's not even out of the question that a team like boston, who isn't contending this year, could be in on him too if we say we're selling to the best offer.

Reports today are that we're listening to calls on Hader but the asking price according to one GM is bananas. I think that's a solid approach at this exact moment. No need to trade him today unless we're blown away. But as the deadline arrives, I dont mind if we come down a touch. Not sure what a fair offer is or what a ridiculous asking price looks like, but if we get a guy who looks like he could be a 3-5 type of hitter in the near future, I think we have to pull the trigger. Hader is going to get really expensive soon and we need 1 more legit bat.

And I'm not super against Hader or anything. We just need a bat so bad. I know Cain threw a bit of a wrench into the equation, but not that much. So far this year we've had 7 different guys hit 4th for us. Smoak has done it the most and he's only done it 9 times. That should be a spot in the lineup that's set it and forget it. You're 1-5 spots should be the same 75% of the time. Maybe you slide some guys up or down due to a platoon. And maybe with a platoon, you shift the order a hair to stay righty/lefty more, but there's no reason that 28 games into a season you should have had that many #4 hitters and your most common #4 guy starting there less than a third of the games.

It's not just sustainable to pull a legit middle of the order bat out of your *** in free agency every year. We got lucky that the thames/Aggy combo worked and shaw had some good years, but that stuff isn't sustainable every year. Finding guys we can just plug and play at 1-5 at least would be great. Ideally with a DH we could get 1-6 or 7 pretty consistent, but we can't even get 1-4 consistent.

What I will say about Hader too, is if he's a 1-inning guy now and you can get a haul for him, why wouldn't you? When he was throwing 2 1.3 innings and could come in in the 6th or the 8th/9th he was more valuable imo to the Brewers that is. If this is just because of the short season then OK, I would love to keep him with control; but if going forward he is a one-inning guy those aren't that difficult to find and if a team gives you 3 good prospects OK....like if the Dodgers give you Lux and a top arm Brewers should probably go that route.

[crewfan13]

I think Hader is a one inning guy now more because of the other bullpen guys. He's the closer and it's easier to run the same guy out at closer as much as possible. I don't think he's incapable of throwing multiple innings, but if he's throwing multiple innings, he's out for 2 days at least. If knebel actually came back to health and effectiveness and he was the closer again, especially with Williams as a traditional 8th inning guy, I think you'd see more creative usage out of Hader.

[crewfan13]

Sounds like David Phelps was moved to the Phillies for 3 non 60 man prospects. Probably a good move to to help bolster the farm a little. Probably didn't get much, but maybe similar to the Adam Lind deal where you get 3 lotto tickets and hope one turns into Freddy Peralta.

[jay87shot]

We designated Smoak and picked up Dan Vogelbach off waivers. Looks like Gyorko will get most of the AB's at 1B and Vogelbach will get some time here and there. Vogelbach has been trash since the All-Star break last year, however he was an all-star last year, is relatively young and could make be a Aguilar style pick-up (not probably a high likelyhood).

The Phelps trade looks exactly like the Lind deal, three young guys who have had some success and upside but don't have much prospect value.

Brandon Ramey- 30th round pick in 2018 out of Cali HS (at 17), had 30 k's in 22 innings of rookie ball last year and 2.78 ERA 19 years old this year.
Isreal Puello- 80 k's in 65 innings, 1.92 era in Dominican League, turns 20 in a week.
Juan Geraldo- 33 k's in 25 innings, 3.96 era in Dominican League, 19 years old.

Ramey https://phuturephillies.com/2019/10/...brandon-ramey/

SP - ISRAEL PUELLO
Righty with good size (6'3", 200 pounds) and velocity (sit 92-94, touch 95 per reports) had big control issues last season in his first exposure to the DSL. He cut his walk rate by nearly half while adding 10 percent to his strikeout rate. He's got a plus slider to go with his fastball, and if he can work in a fringe-average change with more consistency, he could really shoot up Phillies lists.

Geraldo https://2080baseball.com/draft-prosp.../juan-geraldo/

[crewfan13]

Corbin burnes looking like an absolute stud. If he can maintain anything close to this level, he and woody make a very good 1/2 punch. Still think houser can rebound into being a good #4ish type guy.

Assuming this year is an outlier for Yeli, we have the bones of a pretty decent team. Just missing a few pieces. Ideally we can make those up this offseason. I'm still all in on a Hader trade but understand why waiting until the offseason may have made more sense. More teams might be in on him in the offseason. If we can knock it out of the park with a Hader trade, we could be really good.

[jay87shot]

If this team could find even a little offense consistency we could be a super dangerous playoff team. As CrewFan said Burnes/Woodruff have upper-upper eschalon stuff and Williams and Hader are a great back end. That is what makes this season so frustrating, I Yeli, Huira, and 1 other bat (would have been Cain) were even average or slightly above this team would be dynamite. Maybe next year we can spend our money on more consistent players and get our bats back on track.

[crewfan13]

Problem for me is the bat we need to add is a legit middle of the order bat. There's not many of those scheduled for FA at the moment. I'll assume we would be out on Realmulto, springer and probably Marcus Semien, as those guys will probably get pretty decent deals. The next echelon of hitter available is Lemahieu and Gregorious or a Nelson Cruz and Brantley style grouping. Not sure those guys are really legit middle of the order bats.

There's some player option guys who could opt out and make things a bit more interesting like Stanton, Rizzo, Castellanos, and JD Martinez. But those guys may not be in our price range either. But those guys could be interesting.

[crewfan13]

One other thing for me is that Hiura is just such a strange case study guy to me. I was a little skeptical of him coming up. He has a high strikeout/low walk guy. Usually that's not a phenomenal combination. But he did develop more power than I anticipated, so that definitely helps. Before his final season in the minors, I thought he was a 15-20 homer guy. Now he looks like a 25-30 type of guy.

But putting his profile into fangraphs is fascinating. Both big league years he's struck out over 30% of ths time and he's walked under 8% both years. If you fangraphs filter on all hitters with over 400 at bats last year who are over 28% k and under 8% BB rate, the list is small and somewhat uninspiring. Scott Kingery seems like the closest comp to him from last year. Hiura has more pop, but kingery provides more defensive value. 2018 doesn't provide any really better comps. Perhaps Harrison Bader with some more pop.

But the challenge with him was his BABIP was absurdly high last year. This year, it's been really low. Realisitically, he settles in somewhere in the middle, but even with a 0.320-0.350 BABIP range, he's probably a 0.260/0.325/0.490 type of slash line. That's far from bad, but for a guy who is a below average defender, that's not a superstar. I think he can function as a 2/5 hitter, and if our lineup dictates (ie we get another high quality lefty bat), he could maybe hit 3 between yeli and another big bat.

And that's part of the reason I really think we need another big time hitter. I'm not fully sure we can trust hiura to be a full time middle of the order bat. He'd be a phenomenal 5 hitter, but we don't have the farm or cash to find 2 guys to hit 2/3/4 with Yeli to allow hiura to hit 5th.