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  1. #31
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    If an amnesty clause is given things will certainly get interesting. I suspect all the talent will go to the top teams for a chance at a ring cause even with the amnesty teams won’t be able to offer up much contract wise to FAs. So we will see a bunch of cheap 1 year deals.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by OceanSpray View Post
    I see no evidence Horford is a better player than Trez. Trez is an absolute workhorse. He's a guy you hate playing against. Horford to me seems soft, constantly gets abused by LeBron, and other than shooting/experience, he isn't as good as he used to be. Trez is a bully down in the post as well.
    Trez is a really great player, but there's a reason he comes off the bench and doesn't get extended minutes. Defensively he doesn't fare well against top units. His game is predicated on playing bully ball vs back ups. Don't get me wrong, there's a ton of value in what he brings. Instant offensive production off the bench like that is key. But he isn't able to replicate that against the better centers and he doesn't have a game suited to play off of a multi-star lineup.

    Come playoff time, there won't be "load management" for star players. PG and Kawhi aren't going to be playing reduced minutes and sitting out every other game. They're going to be playing every game and being on the court for extended minutes. And other teams will be using their star players more as well. A player like Harrell's skill set will be marginalized when he's playing more minutes against starting caliber bigs and playing more minutes having to play off of star players instead of being a focal point for bench scoring.

    In Atlanta, Horford was miscast as a franchise player. He's not that guy. You can't expect Horford to lead a team of Milsap/Korver/Teague/Bazemore vs Lebron and Wade/Bosh or Lebron and Kyrie/Love. You're asking Horford to match up against a vastly superior star player with less star power backing him up.

    In BOS, that continued. He was going against Lebron with Love/Kyrie backing him up with an injured hip Isiah Thomas along with Avery Bradley/Jae Crowder/Kelly Olynyk types backing him up in year 1. Not a fair fight. In year 2, Lebron only had Love. Horford was supposed to have Hayward/Kyrie with him but instead he had rookie Tatum and year 2 Jaylen Brown. Honestly those guys played really well though and it's fair to give some criticism to Horford for this year IMO.

    Overall though, I don't think it's fair to call Horford out because he couldn't beat Lebron when he also had better teammates. That's just insanely unfair to him.


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  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    I think there’s a few team out there that would like him. I know Miami goes big game hunting yearly but he would be a nice get for them to pair with Bam. As you said GSW. San Antonio if they don’t rebuild.

    I think the narrative around Horford has been overblown due to him playing out of position and being asked to do things that aren’t his strengths. I’d be almost willing to bet if we traded him at a loss or amnesty him and he plays well the narrative would quickly become the “stupid Sixers doing their usual mess up” pretty quickly.
    Yeah that's inevitable.

    I think BIG PICTURE, PHI was the perfect type of team to sign Horford. They had two established stars so you didn't need Horford to be anything more than #3. Just because the way NBA free agency works with teams having to "use it or lose it" and the true #1 options being capped by the max deal, you know you were going to overpay Horford to be that #3 player. But considering PHI's overall situation and how in theory it elevated them to championship level talent it made sense.

    The problem is, it seems like PHI went out of their way to put together a team that fits as poorly together as possible. Yes, on paper PHI has two stars that Horford could be the 3rd star too. But he's not a good fit on offense in a lineup with those two guys. Horford's strengths are facilitating and floor spacing as a 5. They put him at the 4 where he goes from great shooter to not as good and paired him with a guy who's best strength is being the dominant facilitator. Defensively, Horford's great value is that he defends the rim and can also rotate onto smaller players. They put him in a spot where instead of switching onto the smaller player he is the smaller player. It was just an awful fit.

    Horford's game isn't sexy. The things he does well aren't conducive to stats. It was so beneficial to Boston and ATL how he could facilitate as a big. That means instead of a plodding big man setting screens in the off ball action it could be a wing doing that. It opens up so much for your off ball action game. He's not Steph Curry from 3 but being able to spread the floor as well as he does as a 5 without sacrificing defense is very unique. And on defense it's so rare that someone can defend the rim and switch on the perimeter.

    Horford is never going to put up high PPG totals. He's not as special as a guy like Jokic who will get high assist totals. And then the big weakness in his game is that he's not a great rebounder so he won't pile up stats there. Defensively he's more of a shot alterer than shot blocker so that works against him. Basically there's no stat he's going to pile up that people will point to as evidence he's a worthy #3. But all of the things he does I think make him very much a guy who can be an ideal 3rd best player on a championship team. Not a 3rd best scorer but a 3rd best player.

    The issue with him is that he's going to be going into his age 34 season and he's signed for big money through age 36 season (I know last year is only partially guaranteed but $14M, but that's still a big number). That contract is why he has little to negative value IMO. Since his game is based a lot on athleticism and foot speed there's big decline risk. And with so much money tied up it can inhibit a team's ability to make other improvements.

    If Horford had one year left on his deal contenders I think would be lining up to take him off PHI's hands. But with 3 years it's just too much.


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  4. #34
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    HPF I agree with most of your statement, but the major part is always left out.....there are dumb teams out there.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Trez is a really great player, but there's a reason he comes off the bench and doesn't get extended minutes. Defensively he doesn't fare well against top units. His game is predicated on playing bully ball vs back ups. Don't get me wrong, there's a ton of value in what he brings. Instant offensive production off the bench like that is key. But he isn't able to replicate that against the better centers and he doesn't have a game suited to play off of a multi-star lineup.

    Come playoff time, there won't be "load management" for star players. PG and Kawhi aren't going to be playing reduced minutes and sitting out every other game. They're going to be playing every game and being on the court for extended minutes. And other teams will be using their star players more as well. A player like Harrell's skill set will be marginalized when he's playing more minutes against starting caliber bigs and playing more minutes having to play off of star players instead of being a focal point for bench scoring.

    In Atlanta, Horford was miscast as a franchise player. He's not that guy. You can't expect Horford to lead a team of Milsap/Korver/Teague/Bazemore vs Lebron and Wade/Bosh or Lebron and Kyrie/Love. You're asking Horford to match up against a vastly superior star player with less star power backing him up.

    In BOS, that continued. He was going against Lebron with Love/Kyrie backing him up with an injured hip Isiah Thomas along with Avery Bradley/Jae Crowder/Kelly Olynyk types backing him up in year 1. Not a fair fight. In year 2, Lebron only had Love. Horford was supposed to have Hayward/Kyrie with him but instead he had rookie Tatum and year 2 Jaylen Brown. Honestly those guys played really well though and it's fair to give some criticism to Horford for this year IMO.

    Overall though, I don't think it's fair to call Horford out because he couldn't beat Lebron when he also had better teammates. That's just insanely unfair to him.
    This must be a joke, right? Trez comes off the bench because he works so well with Lou. Doc wanted to keep that synergy going so that the Clippers would be strong in their starting and 2nd lineup. Trez finishes the games if it gets close so it doesn't really matter if he's coming off the bench or not when the Clippers are deep enough to get by without him. The point is, Trez provides more of a threat than Horford does as this moment of his career. Horford's defense has declined and he's not the same player defensively - which is what teams needed him for at their leader and anchor.

    Horford continuously provided zero answer to LeBron. I saw Trez cause problems for Davis in a way that Horford would never be able to replicate simply because he's too slow and isn't an aggressive player. Again, Horford has never had any ounce of success against LeBron despite being an elite defender for a bunch of seasons. He doesn't show up in the playoffs but gets paid max dollars every season. I don't understand it.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    So I think I got a couple of options lined up here:

    OPTION 1:
    Sixers In: Buddy Heild
    Jazz In: Al Horford, 2021 Kings 2nd, 2022 Sixers 2nd
    Kings In: Rudy Gobert, Furkan Korkmaz, 2020 Sixers 1st, 2022 Swap with Sixers

    I would imagine there needs to be something extra going to the Jazz, but if they deem the situation is irredeemable between Gobert/Mitchell, then they likely would be willing to take a talent loss to get out of that situation because I would bet that they prefer to keep Mitchell.

    So from every teams perspective it tends to make sense IMO. The Jazz get a better fit with Mitchell, the Kings get the C they've been in search of forever, the Sixers get the spacing needed. I don't think we have the firepower to get Heild in a 1-on-1 trade situation so something like this is needed.

    Sixers: Simmons/Heild/JRich/Harris/Embiid
    Jazz: Conley/Mitchell/Ingles/O'Neal/Horford
    Kings: Fox/Bogdonovich/Barnes/Bjelica/Gobert

    OPTION 2:
    This is the slightly more expensive trade. Would hurt a little more but it would work.

    Sixers In: LaVine, Felicio
    Jazz In: Horford, 2021 Sixers Swap, 2020 Sixers 2nd, 2020 Thunder 1st (protected)
    Bulls In: Gobert, Thybulle, Korkmaz, 2020 Sixers 1st, 2022 Sixers Swap (Convert to 2 2nds if swap doesn't happen)

    So with this one the Bulls get out from a disgruntled player, get a C that works with White and Markkanen, along with a potential defensive stopper on the wings. The Jazz get out from the seemingly toxic Gobert/Mitchell relationship with some extra parts. Sixers get that second swing scorer that's needed. The Sixers 'tax' in this one is having to take on Felicio.

    Sixers: Simmons, LaVine, JRich, Harris, Embiid
    Jazz: Conley/Mitchell/Ingles/O'Neal/Horford
    Bulls: White/Thybulle/Porter/Markkanen/Gobert

    OPTION 3:
    This one is the most expensive move IMO for us to make. Because it involves a team and a player I think the least likely to move. So we're going to have to really pay to make it happen, but I think it could somehow work.

    Sixers In: Beal
    Jazz In: Horford, Korkmaz, 2021 Wizards 2nd
    Wizards In: Gobert, Richardson, 2020 Sixers 1st, 2020 OKC 1st, 2022 Sixers 1st, 2023 Sixers Swap (2nd if no swap)

    Sixers: Simmons/Beal/Thybulle/Harris/Embiid
    Jazz: Conley/Mitchell/Ingles/O'Neal/Horford
    Wizards: Wall/Richardson/Robinson/Hachimura/Gobert

    The Wizards really do get the quick turnaround with that trade, and even if Wall goes out again they got all the parts that they need to keep competing without him. If they really wanted to they have the parts then to make a move to unload Wall then. Maybe they use all those picks to add to Wall and nab CP3 or something like that. Sixers upgrade JRich -> Beal, but it is costing a bit to do so.

    INTERJECTION BEFORE THE LAST TRADE:
    I keep coming back to the Jazz as a 3rd team because they seem to really want to get rid of Gobert with this riff in the lockerroom. And I got a feeling that they longer this goes on with the shutdown the worse that relationship has the potential to be in the future. I think that Horford is a great style big to play off Mitchell some and help him get freed up for easier looks.

    OPTION 4:
    I call this the "Let's **** **** up" trade. Just get extremely funky with the trade and so something really silly. Simmons and Booker have made comments about wanting to play together.

    Sixers In: Booker, Jerome, 2021 Suns 1st, 2022 Suns Swap
    Suns In: Embiid, Thybulle, Korkmaz, 2022 Sixers Swap

    Sixers: Simmons / Booker / Richardson / Harris / Horford
    Suns: Rubio / Thybulle / Oubre / Saric / Embiid

    Yes this is the "**** **** up" trade because most Sixers fans wouldn't want to see Embiid moved. But that puts one of the most optimal lineups around Simmons that we could do. The Suns likely get much better through that trade by replacing offense with defense at the 2 and getting a stud in the center like Embiid.
    I just don't view Utah as a fit like you do. In the 2021 offseason the Jazz are going to be able to keep Mitchell and then either re-sign Gortat or pursue a max free agent. I don't think they want to commit to a then 35 year old AL Horford being that second max player.

    I think it'd be much preferable to just keep Gortat and let the last year of his deal play out. If it blows up, it's only for one year and then you can go use the max cap space.

    Like you said, teams do "dumb" stuff. So I totally agree that Horford is movable. I think you're just being a little greedy here. You have him being moved in deals that net you Rudy Gobert, Buddy Hield or Zach LaVine here. Those are lofty expectations IMO.

    Bad deals are movable. I remember when Boston took on Gerald Wallace in that that BRK trade. But that was giving up a way past their prime Pierce/KG. Not young players in their prime that are all stars or near all star level. I think that's more realistic for what you can hope for.

    Let's say the Jazz do trade Gobert in a separate deal. Maybe they move him to land someone like Hield or LaVine for themselves which is more appropriate value. In that scenario, it could make sense for them to maybe take on Horford for someone like Mike Conley. He addresses a need for PHI and is only a one year deal.

    Trading Horford to PHI for Eric Gordon, Ben McLemore, Isaiah Hartenstein and Chris Clemons works financially. Horford is a guy that can preserve a lot of their small ball principles but still give them size. Gordon has a long term deal but for less annual money so it's not as big a tax hit each year. This could help PHI add some secondary scoring/shooting and Houston balance the roster better.

    The SAC Kings are a dumb team that's always looking to take on vets they don't need. Not so dumb that they'd give up Buddy Hield, but something like Nemanja Bjelica and Cory Joseph could work. That lands PHI some 1 year role players they could use. Throw them a 1st rounder or two and maybe they take on the long term money for the vet presence.

    I mentioned the Clippers as a win now team that might take him on. People disagree that he's an improvement over Trez but whatever. I don't agree with that at all. PHI would get nothing though in that 3 team deal I proposed.

    Those are the type of trades I think are more realistic than trying to use him to land a premium trade piece IMO.


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  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by OceanSpray View Post
    This must be a joke, right? Trez comes off the bench because he works so well with Lou. Doc wanted to keep that synergy going so that the Clippers would be strong in their starting and 2nd lineup. Trez finishes the games if it gets close so it doesn't really matter if he's coming off the bench or not when the Clippers are deep enough to get by without him. The point is, Trez provides more of a threat than Horford does as this moment of his career. Horford's defense has declined and he's not the same player defensively - which is what teams needed him for at their leader and anchor.

    Horford continuously provided zero answer to LeBron. I saw Trez cause problems for Davis in a way that Horford would never be able to replicate simply because he's too slow and isn't an aggressive player. Again, Horford has never had any ounce of success against LeBron despite being an elite defender for a bunch of seasons. He doesn't show up in the playoffs but gets paid max dollars every season. I don't understand it.
    What exactly are you expecting from Al Horford in the playoffs?

    Regular season: 14.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, 0.8 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 52% shooting, 36% on 3s
    Playoffs: 13.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 50% shooting, 0.8 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 41% on 3s

    In the playoffs he's the same exact guy he always is. And I'd argue that in the playoffs, the degree to which you're playing better competition is highest for big men. Obviously in the playoffs you play better competition than in the regular season where it's diluted vs bad teams. I think that that talent discrepancy is magnified for big men compared to wings because the talent there is scarcer around the league.


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  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    What exactly are you expecting from Al Horford in the playoffs?

    Regular season: 14.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, 0.8 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 52% shooting, 36% on 3s
    Playoffs: 13.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 50% shooting, 0.8 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 41% on 3s

    In the playoffs he's the same exact guy he always is. And I'd argue that in the playoffs, the degree to which you're playing better competition is highest for big men. Obviously in the playoffs you play better competition than in the regular season where it's diluted vs bad teams. I think that that talent discrepancy is magnified for big men compared to wings because the talent there is scarcer around the league.
    I'm expecting him to make a difference when he gets paid to do so and quite frankly, he's never been capable of making a big difference. Montrezl makes a difference when he is out there right now. When my team plays the Clippers, I am worried about Montrezl being physical down in the post. Horford is on his way out in the league and is declining every year. He's overpaid and overrated.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    I just don't view Utah as a fit like you do. In the 2021 offseason the Jazz are going to be able to keep Mitchell and then either re-sign Gortat or pursue a max free agent. I don't think they want to commit to a then 35 year old AL Horford being that second max player.

    I think it'd be much preferable to just keep Gortat and let the last year of his deal play out. If it blows up, it's only for one year and then you can go use the max cap space.
    So a couple of things just my POV is on this:
    1 - Utah is not much of a FA destination. So getting the max space doesn't mean as much to them as it does others.
    2 - Because the cap space isn't as useful to them as it is others, they might as well bring in a player via trade.
    3 - If it's going to blow up like that, instead of letting Gobert walk with hoping you use FA to replace him, a trade is going to be worth it.

    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Like you said, teams do "dumb" stuff. So I totally agree that Horford is movable. I think you're just being a little greedy here. You have him being moved in deals that net you Rudy Gobert, Buddy Hield or Zach LaVine here. Those are lofty expectations IMO.
    I know. I'm looking at situations where there are reports that players want out or it's a deteriorating situation. Teams that need to unload players will often take under value deals just to move on from a player (regardless of how often they say they'll only take a good deal).

    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Bad deals are movable. I remember when Boston took on Gerald Wallace in that that BRK trade. But that was giving up a way past their prime Pierce/KG. Not young players in their prime that are all stars or near all star level. I think that's more realistic for what you can hope for.
    I would say y'all got a great deal out of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Let's say the Jazz do trade Gobert in a separate deal. Maybe they move him to land someone like Hield or LaVine for themselves which is more appropriate value. In that scenario, it could make sense for them to maybe take on Horford for someone like Mike Conley. He addresses a need for PHI and is only a one year deal.
    Honestly that creates a situation where the Jazz rely on Mitchell as their primary PG. I think they still would need a starting PG. I mean, maybe we do something like that and play Conley, Simmons, and JRich together.

    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Trading Horford to PHI for Eric Gordon, Ben McLemore, Isaiah Hartenstein and Chris Clemons works financially. Horford is a guy that can preserve a lot of their small ball principles but still give them size. Gordon has a long term deal but for less annual money so it's not as big a tax hit each year. This could help PHI add some secondary scoring/shooting and Houston balance the roster better.
    Work financially, but I'm not sure that Houston would do that. 1 for some odd reason they are super invested in the extra small ball thing. 2 That trade doesn't work financially because Eric Gordon has a PPP in his contract. Gordon's outgoing contract ony trades out as $14.5mil.

    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    The SAC Kings are a dumb team that's always looking to take on vets they don't need. Not so dumb that they'd give up Buddy Hield, but something like Nemanja Bjelica and Cory Joseph could work. That lands PHI some 1 year role players they could use. Throw them a 1st rounder or two and maybe they take on the long term money for the vet presence.
    That doesn't really help in the way it should unless we bring Bjelica in to come off the bench and start Thybulle.

    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    I mentioned the Clippers as a win now team that might take him on. People disagree that he's an improvement over Trez but whatever. I don't agree with that at all. PHI would get nothing though in that 3 team deal I proposed.

    Those are the type of trades I think are more realistic than trying to use him to land a premium trade piece IMO.
    I think LAC would be an interesting one in that the fit is really good, and I thought they were going to be the team to chase him with Kawhi anyways.

    I got a twist on your Trez deal:
    Sixers in: Batum, Zeller, 2021 Charlotte swap (top 5 protected)
    Clippers in: Horford, 2020 Thunder 1st, 2020 BRK/NYK 2nd (higher of via PHI), 2020 Lakers 2nd (Via PHI)
    Hornets in: Harrell, Scott, Smith

    Sixers get a guy that's a 'better fit' in a play sense with Batum. We gain some on the years left with Batum, but it's still a "bad deal". Clippers get the golden glove fit for PG and Kawhi with Horford, get compensated with taking the extra years on, but it doesn't break the bank from the Sixers perspective. Trez Harrell does S&T to land with the Hornets, and really make out like bandits by giving up Batum, so there needs to be some level of compensation.

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    I have a little bit of a "hot" take... I think BOS should explore trading Marcus Smart.

    I think the Celtics are and should be committed to keeping Kemba / Brown / Hayward / Tatum in tact. I think the 4 of them function beautifully together. I think a narrative got created last year that Brown/Hayward/Tatum couldn't coexist but a lot has changed:

    1) Hayward in year 2 back from injury is just quite simply a better player. Take fit out of it - Hayward was just flat out not a good player his first year back. He didn't have the same burst and he was tentative/unsure of his role. It's normal for players coming back from major injury to take until year 2 to be all the way back and that's played out with Hayward. Any lineup with him will work better now that he's back to being a good player. And now that the "idea" of what role Hayward can play matches his physical ability to play said role, of course it goes smoother.

    2) Kemba is more willing to take a back seat to others than Kyrie. This has been huge. Kemba doesn't only accept that he needs the help of others to win, he actually EMBRACES it. He seems to genuinely enjoy being a part of the development of Brown/Tatum and wants them to grow into stars. His whole mindset is different. Kyrie came from winning as a second option and wanting to grow beyond that. Kemba came from never being able to win as a lone wolf and looking to play alongside better players. He's not the individual talent that Kyrie is, but he more than makes up for that by being willing to let others thrive and exhibiting true, genuine leadership. Kyrie was fine playing alongside Lebron and will be fine with Durant, but when you're relying on development from Brown/Tatum Kemba is simply a much better fit.

    3) Tatum has made huge strides in year 3. His shot selection has improved greatly. Over his first two years 29.6% of his shots were 3s, 40.8% were from within 10 feet and 29.6% of his shots were between 10 feet and the 3 point line. This year, 37.7% of his shots are 3s, 41.9% are within 10 feet and 20.4% are from 10 feet out to the 3 point line. He's moved about a third of his mid range shots out to the 3 point line or into the paint. His FT attempts ar euphorias per game as well. Those don't show up as shot attempts so they won't be reflected in those percentages but it also highlights how he's moving from the mid range to the paint/3 more. He's not taking as many floaters/runners or mid range turnarounds. He's not running ISO as much. All of this has made him easier to play with on the offensive end. It's improved not only his game, but better allowed others to still eat as he progressed. And then he's made massive strides on the other end of the court. He's become an elite defender. He's also upped his defensive rebounding. That's made him playing PF much more viable. All together, his offensive and defensive improvement have massively aided their ability to go with a "4 out" perimeter oriented lineup.

    4) Jaylen Brown made huge strides. He was flat out painful to watch at times last year. Going from the second perimeter scorer that he was in that playoff run 2 years ago to the 4th perimeter scorer last year was tough on him. It created matchups that seemed favorable on paper for him so he would try to capitalize but he didn't have the handles/finishing ability to do it like he thought he could. Back in that playoff run they were using more off ball action to look for him to get shots. Last year they had better players to create shots for so they didn't do it as much. This year, he improved his handles a ton to better work his game around others. Because he's still the 4th best perimeter player, he gets those favorable matchups. Now, he's got the handles to capitalize. He still doesn't create for others but he's able to be a high level scorer just by bodying up weaker defenders he gets afforded with he opportunity to face because the top guys are on Tatum/Kemba/Hayward.

    Last year the Kyrie/Brown/Hayward/Tatum grouping didn't work. But all of those changes have made it so that the Kemba/Brown/Hayward/Tatum grouping DOES work. It's a high level unit on both ends of the court.

    Brown signed his extension last year. Tatum will sign his this offseason. Kemba is signed for 3 more seasons after this one (includes a player option that you can't imagine him turning down). Hayward is the short term guy with an expiring deal after he picks up the player option this year.

    If I'm Boston, my plan would be to try and line Hayward up with Kemba. So when he hits FA next year I'd, offer him as big a 2 year deal as it takes to get him to take 2 years. Or, as an alternative, you work out a deal where he opts out this year and re-signs a 3 year deal. If Hayward opted out and signed a 3 year, $90.72M deal his 2020 salary would go down from $34.2M to $28M. So Boston saved $6.2M on their luxury tax number this year and Hayward gets the same money as if he players out this offseason and then signed a 2 year, $56.5M deal next year. I think he'd definitely consider that. And for BOS, the savings this year might be the difference between going into the tax now vs next year. If it does make the difference, it's worth paying him more on that deal to avoid repeater penalties.

    So that laves with a 3 year window for Kemba/Brown/Hayward/Tatum. And then, after that 3 year window is up, Brown under his current deal and Tatum would be as well under his inevitable rookie extension. Beyond them, Romeo Langford and Grant Williams would be restricted free agents and any rookies they draft from this year on will be under their rookie deals.

    At that point, Boston would have major financial flexibility to pursue a long term fit with Brown/Tatum. The UFA class includes Jokic, Embiid, Porzingis, Durant, Jimmy Butler, Harden, Westbrook, D'Angelo Russell, Myles Turner, Nikola Vucevic, Brogden, Love, Middleton (PO), Capela. Those guys will be at different points in their careers but with tons of financial flexibility Boston would be in position to either land a star or make two good signings to add to the core (i.e. one of Turner/Capela) and then another guy. Can't realistically expect to pry a guy like Morant or Zion away in RFA but other draftees from this year like Tyler Herro, Jaxson Hayes, Brandon Clarke, Matisse Thybulle have all played well and maybe you can make an offer sheet a team won't match depending on how far they've developed.

    And it's not like I'm suggesting tank in the meantime. I'm saying extend the core of a team that looks poised to compete already, just maneuver it right so you can smoothly transition to another era of talent around Brown/Tatum.

    That brings me back to my original point of trading Marcus Smart. He's an amazing glue guy, I love what he brings. It would really suck to see him moved. But I compare it to the Charles Oakley trade the Bulls made to a degree. They had Horace Grant at PF and needed a C. So they made the tough call to move a beloved toughness guy to balance the roster. I think moving Smart could be similar...

    1) If Boston committees to a core of Kemba/Brown/Hayward/Tatum that's a ton of minutes committed. Let's say you manage workload and only play them 30 minutes per game in the regular season. There are 192 minutes to be split between the PG/SG/SF/PF positions and at 30 minutes per game they'd be taking 120 of them. In the playoffs, you're obviously going to want to extend the minutes of those guys as they're great players. If you play Kemba/Hayward 34 minutes each and Brown/Tatum 36, now you've filled up 140 of 192 minutes. So a substantial chunk. There's obviously plenty of time for Smart to make an impact there, but is that the position you really need to be allocating big money too?

    2) Smart's contract has 2 years left after this one. That means Boston will have to make a choice on re-signing him. If they do, it will be a contract that takes away a chunk of the financial flexibility I talked about above for after Hayward/Walker's prime years are up. Is Smart worth taking that away? I'd argue no.

    3) With above, I consider him someone who I reluctantly wouldn't bring back past his current deal. That means I'd rather get something for him. And trading him now with 2 years left vs next year as an expiring I think makes a big difference.

    4) The overall weakness of this draft class I think will help elevate a Marcus Smart return. Just google "Marcus Smart Warriors" and you see people discussing on team blogs if the Warriors should give up a top 5 pick for Marcus Smart. If the Wolves pick lands at #3 and they keep it, I think a strong argument can be made that Smart is a better piece to add to KAT/Russell than anyone in this class.The Wizards want to compete and keep Beal happy so would Smart packaged with one of Boston's later 1sts get you their lottery pick? Because this class is perceived as so weak, you could maybe get a higher pick for Smart than usual. If there's a guy Boston likes I think they could realistically land him with Smart and some other picks/young players.

    I just think the value lines up well to move Smart now. I think you could either get the answer to the center rotation issue now, or you could get a pick that fits into the long term core better contract wise while still being a good role player for you now.

    Is Smart/Theis/#17 pick a competitive offer for Rudy Gobert? Could that package get Myles Turner? The Hawks have talked about moving John Collins - would that work? How about Lauri Markannen in CHI? Smart was one of the guys who seemed to have a good relationship with Kyrie so what about Jarret Allen in BRK?

    Ultimately, I think the time could be right for Boston to consider it.


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  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by OceanSpray View Post
    I'm expecting him to make a difference when he gets paid to do so and quite frankly, he's never been capable of making a big difference. Montrezl makes a difference when he is out there right now. When my team plays the Clippers, I am worried about Montrezl being physical down in the post. Horford is on his way out in the league and is declining every year. He's overpaid and overrated.
    And if Horford were not he Clippers, then when you play them you SHOULD be worried about him handling the ball at the top of the key pulling Bam away from the rim so he can't weakside shot black after PG cuts to the rim on an off ball screen set by Kawhi that put your defenders in a pickle. When Horford is on defense, you can't victimize him in the P&R like you can with Trez.

    I don't want to trash Tez because he's a very good player. Any team would be happy to have him, not only now but for the future because he's young. I just think Al Horford is better. He's not as fun to watch but he's all around better. Trez is going to get expensive this season. He'll no longer be a cheap bargain. PG and Kawhi can opt out after next season. You never know what could happen so I think it'd be wise for LAC to go all in. Spend a little extra and get a better player. ****, with the contracts, you'll get the better player AND some future assets too that can help you pursue even more improvements.


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  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    And if Horford were not he Clippers, then when you play them you SHOULD be worried about him handling the ball at the top of the key pulling Bam away from the rim so he can't weakside shot black after PG cuts to the rim on an off ball screen set by Kawhi that put your defenders in a pickle. When Horford is on defense, you can't victimize him in the P&R like you can with Trez.

    I don't want to trash Tez because he's a very good player. Any team would be happy to have him, not only now but for the future because he's young. I just think Al Horford is better. He's not as fun to watch but he's all around better. Trez is going to get expensive this season. He'll no longer be a cheap bargain. PG and Kawhi can opt out after next season. You never know what could happen so I think it'd be wise for LAC to go all in. Spend a little extra and get a better player. ****, with the contracts, you'll get the better player AND some future assets too that can help you pursue even more improvements.
    I'm not referring to the Heat vs Clippers. I'm referring to the Lakers vs Clippers because I don't give the Heat a good shot of winning until a couple of more years. We have way too many younglings at this point to get the calls in the playoffs and experience. But if I am the Clippers, I don't see how Horford poses any threat to the Lakers because he doesn't defend AD better than Trez. You need to be physical with AD to have any shot against him. Horford is not a physical player.

    You talk about price right now but Horford's value sucks. The guy will be 34 next month and is locked in $27 million per season up until age 37. And for what? A guy who has one good playoffs game but never gets blamed because he's boring? Yeah... No thanks. Trez is a dog out there and will battle for every possession. Horford seems like he is contempt with just milking the NBA for more $ at this point.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    I have a little bit of a "hot" take... I think BOS should explore trading Marcus Smart.

    I just think the value lines up well to move Smart now. I think you could either get the answer to the center rotation issue now, or you could get a pick that fits into the long term core better contract wise while still being a good role player for you now.

    Is Smart/Theis/#17 pick a competitive offer for Rudy Gobert? Could that package get Myles Turner? The Hawks have talked about moving John Collins - would that work? How about Lauri Markannen in CHI? Smart was one of the guys who seemed to have a good relationship with Kyrie so what about Jarret Allen in BRK?

    Ultimately, I think the time could be right for Boston to consider it.
    I think it's smart to consider from the standpoints you pointed out, but mostly I don't think his value will get any higher than it is now.

    I'm not sure that would work for Gobert (my thoughts notwithstanding), mostly because they are somewhat of a glut there. Granted they do have Ed Davis as a backup who could start, but they are quite thin there.

    Turner - The Pacers are being a little strange on that one, and I've read some things that they would be more interested in moving Dipo right now rather than one of those bags. (I don't get it by W/E). But they are another team without Sabonis or Turner is really thin with bigs.

    John Collins would seem like a possibility. And for the Hawks it would be smart to surround Trae with guys like Smart who can really defend well and help 'hide' him on the defensive side.

    Markkanen is the least likely Bull to move IMO. Everything I've read points to him being in their long term solution.

    I would bet the Nets do that, but they are stupid for giving into Kyrie and KD wanting DeAndre on that team. Allen would have been a good starter and could have given them extra money for elsewhere.

    I was looking at a way to see some type of 3 way deal involving Dallas. It would be interesting to see Smart paired with Doncic and Porzingas.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    Not a max deal and declines in salary every year.

    Also Horford isn't really negative value. He's playing out of position.
    Yeah not a full max or super max for the years he been in the league. But paid more then Embiid this season. Yeah salary goes down a little each season. But that contract and his age of 33 isn't pretty. Plus high mileage on him for all them playoff games back with Hawks and Celtics. Horford could easily be a amnesty player.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by TrueFan420 View Post
    If an amnesty clause is given things will certainly get interesting. I suspect all the talent will go to the top teams for a chance at a ring cause even with the amnesty teams won’t be able to offer up much contract wise to FAs. So we will see a bunch of cheap 1 year deals.
    Yeah, lots of 1+1 deals are going to happen this offseason. But with amnesty it's even better for the top teams because they don't even have to offer them anything above the minimum because it makes no difference to the player.

    That said, the top teams are not going to want to just throw away the players they like for 1 year rentals, so there will be competition among the teams and the players for the few best seats to grab.

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