
Originally Posted by
valade16
It seems you are trying to argue for why China’s bogus numbers were correct. But we know they were not. And no, they did not lockdown before their outbreak started, we now know Covid was in the US as early as December 13th. So China’s Covid outbreak started much earlier than they thought (and told everyone else). Their January lockdowns were still a full month after Covid had already hit the US. They did lockdown as soon as they realized the scope of the problem (which the US did not). But even then, they failed to tell the rest of the world the scope and lied about their numbers to downplay that scope.
No, I am arguing why china having significantly lower numbers is not evidence that their numbers are lies. It is to be expected given how they reacted.
China first had cases in november, but they didnt have an outbreak until january. They locked down before their systems actually got overwhelmed. Italy waited until their systems were overwhelmed to realize what was going on.
NYC got lucky that CA locked down and started a wave of lockdowns across the country, because them locking down when they did saved them BIG TIME. Had they locked down a week later they would have probably experienced 3-4x the amount of fatality during that outbreak. Remember, we are talking exponential growth here.
In November and December yes China lied about it and its scope. In january they walked that back and handed us the cheat sheet telling us how quick of spread we should expect and when we can expect to hit outbreak thresholds.
Late march NYC had theirs, exactly as predicted by chinas data set.
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Last edited by nastynice; 12-03-2020 at 08:00 PM.
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