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  1. #1861
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    Quote Originally Posted by zookman65 View Post
    That is demonstrably incorrect. You can google for yourself and find deep level analysis that running effectiveness has no correlation to the success of play action passing. Linebackers are like kittens watching a ball of yarn. They will fall for it every time regardless of running prowess.
    Going to have to disagree with you there. If you have zero rushing threat the play action is not going to work.


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  2. #1862
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    NFCE 2020 Season Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.B View Post
    Ramsey would have probably been the better pick but Zeke has proved his worth. Heís been a top 5 RB every year heís been in the league. So itís not like it was a waisted pick.


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    Personally, I just think running backs shouldnít even be picked in the 1st round. They typically have shorter careers than other positions and although I think thereís a big difference between an elite running back and an average running back back, I think a good offensive line makes most running backs better.

    Maybe this is what that other guy was trying to say, I donít know, but I do think running backs have value for sure but I just think in the draft, especially in the 1st round, there are better value positions in my opinion

  3. #1863
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    Quote Originally Posted by QQQ View Post
    By the way I was just looking at the schedule and all 4 nfc East teams could be 1-2 after week 3.
    Probably.

  4. #1864
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.B View Post
    Going to have to disagree with you there. If you have zero rushing threat the play action is not going to work.


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    He's a huge Dak guy and ignores how important Zeke is to the Cowboys and Daks success. It's comical at times.

  5. #1865
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.B View Post
    Going to have to disagree with you there. If you have zero rushing threat the play action is not going to work.


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    Amen to this. I was doing some looking into it a bit on another forum as it applies more to the Steelers. But there was an interesting correlation from YPC and average separation/window size.

    Again, Steeler specific numbers:
    Less than 2.0 YPC - Average separation is 0.5 yards, windows of less than 8 yards (distance between defenders where the pass goes to), and Steelers QB's have a completion percentage of 58.4%

    From 2.0-3.5 YPC - Average separation is 1.1 yards, windows of an average of 11 yards, and Steelers QB's have a completion percentage of 64.4%

    From 3.5+ YPC - Average separation is 3.2 yards, windows average 20.5 yards, and Steelers QB's have a completion percentage of 78%

    It's an absolute huge jump in each area when you are effective at running the ball. When the ball carrier is basically turning 1st and 10 to 2nd and 6 vs 1st and 10 to 2nd and 9-7, 2nd down is either a necessary pass down or if you run you are looking at a 3rd and long (5+ yards). At the 2nd and 6, it's reasonable to assume that the first down can be gained by running. Add in that it could mean that there's an extra defender in the box (forcing a defense into cover-1) as well as LB's first movement to be a step towards the LOS.

    Basically a long story short:
    Either a great OL or great RB who can get you into 2nd and mid or 2nd and short to go situations can open up better windows for you because they force the defense to have to stop that run game. An average running back who doesn't get you at least 3.0 YPC really won't do much for you. While I broke that out further, it seems that 3.1 YPC seems to be the major "breaking point" of what it takes for play action to get you that separation and windows that qualify as "wide open" (at least 1 yard of separation and 10 yard window).

  6. #1866
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    NFCE 2020 Season Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    He's a huge Dak guy and ignores how important Zeke is to the Cowboys and Daks success. It's comical at times.
    This is exactly why I figured he was trying so hard to prove that running backs lives donít matter. Heís a dak guy, if running backs get credit then that takes some away from future arguments where he tries to make dak look elite.
    Last edited by QQQ; 09-24-2020 at 09:36 AM.

  7. #1867
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    NFCE 2020 Season Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    Amen to this. I was doing some looking into it a bit on another forum as it applies more to the Steelers. But there was an interesting correlation from YPC and average separation/window size.

    Again, Steeler specific numbers:
    Less than 2.0 YPC - Average separation is 0.5 yards, windows of less than 8 yards (distance between defenders where the pass goes to), and Steelers QB's have a completion percentage of 58.4%

    From 2.0-3.5 YPC - Average separation is 1.1 yards, windows of an average of 11 yards, and Steelers QB's have a completion percentage of 64.4%

    From 3.5+ YPC - Average separation is 3.2 yards, windows average 20.5 yards, and Steelers QB's have a completion percentage of 78%

    It's an absolute huge jump in each area when you are effective at running the ball. When the ball carrier is basically turning 1st and 10 to 2nd and 6 vs 1st and 10 to 2nd and 9-7, 2nd down is either a necessary pass down or if you run you are looking at a 3rd and long (5+ yards). At the 2nd and 6, it's reasonable to assume that the first down can be gained by running. Add in that it could mean that there's an extra defender in the box (forcing a defense into cover-1) as well as LB's first movement to be a step towards the LOS.

    Basically a long story short:
    Either a great OL or great RB who can get you into 2nd and mid or 2nd and short to go situations can open up better windows for you because they force the defense to have to stop that run game. An average running back who doesn't get you at least 3.0 YPC really won't do much for you. While I broke that out further, it seems that 3.1 YPC seems to be the major "breaking point" of what it takes for play action to get you that separation and windows that qualify as "wide open" (at least 1 yard of separation and 10 yard window).
    This is great but I mean, common sense should also show that a running back that can consistently put your team in easier situations more often (in other words, an elite running back) puts their team in a better situation to win than a ďreplacement level running backĒ that consistently doesnít put their team in easier situations.

    2nd and 5 is a lot easier to manage than 2nd and 11 or 2nd and 9
    Last edited by QQQ; 09-24-2020 at 10:26 AM.

  8. #1868
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    Quote Originally Posted by QQQ View Post
    This is great but I mean, common sense should also show that a running back that can consistently put your team in easier situations more often (in other words, an elite running back) puts their team in a better situation than a ďreplacement level running backĒ that consistently doesnít put their team in easier situations.

    2nd and 5 is a lot easier to manage than 2nd and 11 or 2nd and 9
    Yea it's common sense, lol. But the statistical analysis shots that a JAG RB getting less that 3.1 yards per carry not only puts you in a hole in down and distance, but it also doesn't open as big of windows in the PA game. So that comes into situational football.

    For example the Chiefs could run Clyde Edwards-Heliare 5 straight 1st downs. The might not PA Pass on second down in any of those 5 first downs. They line up for the 6th 1st down of the game in 11 personnel. With now this statistical advantage to winning 1st downs on the ground, Kelce stays in to block on PA which makes the LB's jump up in the box. Watkins runs a deep comeback on the right side of the play, so the safety doesn't help, Mecole Hardman is running a deep crossing at about 12-15 yards downfield. Hill has the option route of post or corner depending on the single high safety look.

    The reason that statistical analysis I gave is important is in 3.1 or less YPC it means that the lanes aren't big enough for CEH and the LB's can sit 5-7 yards off the LOS. So the safety can now sit back further in their pedal. If CEH is doing more, then everything changes to above.

    Now the 'next level' to all of this is what I think the complaint of an average RB is ok is about is a running QB. Most QBs run E-W not N-S because they can use the sideline for protection. While yes they can create stress on the defense, its horizontal not vertical. Now this can make the game easier, but if the RB isn't averaging enough YPC, the linebackers can still sit back and have a leaner look at the QB and shuffle sideline-to-sideline. It still keeps passing windows small and strings out runs even if the QB manages to break one here and there.

    The easy argument against that is the success of LJ and Mahomes. They are succeeding because LJ has the ability to cut back against the flow, and we haven't seen him yet in a game where the RB is averaging so few YPC that we see what the windows look like. Mahomes has the ability to throw across the coverage, so as he strings the play to the right you still have to defend the far left of the field. In a way Mahomes is more of a 'cheat code' against this than LJ is.

  9. #1869
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    NFCE 2020 Season Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    Yea it's common sense, lol. But the statistical analysis shots that a JAG RB getting less that 3.1 yards per carry not only puts you in a hole in down and distance, but it also doesn't open as big of windows in the PA game. So that comes into situational football.

    For example the Chiefs could run Clyde Edwards-Heliare 5 straight 1st downs. The might not PA Pass on second down in any of those 5 first downs. They line up for the 6th 1st down of the game in 11 personnel. With now this statistical advantage to winning 1st downs on the ground, Kelce stays in to block on PA which makes the LB's jump up in the box. Watkins runs a deep comeback on the right side of the play, so the safety doesn't help, Mecole Hardman is running a deep crossing at about 12-15 yards downfield. Hill has the option route of post or corner depending on the single high safety look.

    The reason that statistical analysis I gave is important is in 3.1 or less YPC it means that the lanes aren't big enough for CEH and the LB's can sit 5-7 yards off the LOS. So the safety can now sit back further in their pedal. If CEH is doing more, then everything changes to above.

    Now the 'next level' to all of this is what I think the complaint of an average RB is ok is about is a running QB. Most QBs run E-W not N-S because they can use the sideline for protection. While yes they can create stress on the defense, its horizontal not vertical. Now this can make the game easier, but if the RB isn't averaging enough YPC, the linebackers can still sit back and have a leaner look at the QB and shuffle sideline-to-sideline. It still keeps passing windows small and strings out runs even if the QB manages to break one here and there.

    The easy argument against that is the success of LJ and Mahomes. They are succeeding because LJ has the ability to cut back against the flow, and we haven't seen him yet in a game where the RB is averaging so few YPC that we see what the windows look like. Mahomes has the ability to throw across the coverage, so as he strings the play to the right you still have to defend the far left of the field. In a way Mahomes is more of a 'cheat code' against this than LJ is.
    Thatís interesting about this study when comparing QBs that go E-W versus N-S and how much an average running back effects them. Obviously like you said, mahomes is the exception here because he can fling a ball 50 yards across his body as momentum is taking him the other way. But yeah that bit is a lot more interesting to me

  10. #1870
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    Quote Originally Posted by QQQ View Post
    Thatís interesting about this study when comparing QBs that go E-W versus N-S and how much an average running back effects them. Obviously like you said, mahomes is the exception here because he can fling a ball 50 yards across his body as momentum is taking him the other way. But yeah that bit is a lot more interesting to me
    Last few years Iíve gotten more into the statistical analysis. NFL isnít like other sports that can take a bunch of numbers and create a single stat to tell you how someone is performing. So you need to look at composite stats. Like Cam/Vickís passing numbers without that N-S RB yards in their offense were putrid. And the deeper dive shows that the separation and windows werenít as good. Yes there is a conclusion being drawn there of what it means but itís rather interesting look.

    Basically long story short being able to have a RB that can get to having second level defenders involved in primary run defending creates better passing windows. The statistic backup what peopleís eye tests tell them; elite to above average RBs help the passing game via a strong play actions.

  11. #1871
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    Last few years Iíve gotten more into the statistical analysis. NFL isnít like other sports that can take a bunch of numbers and create a single stat to tell you how someone is performing. So you need to look at composite stats. Like Cam/Vickís passing numbers without that N-S RB yards in their offense were putrid. And the deeper dive shows that the separation and windows werenít as good. Yes there is a conclusion being drawn there of what it means but itís rather interesting look.

    Basically long story short being able to have a RB that can get to having second level defenders involved in primary run defending creates better passing windows. The statistic backup what peopleís eye tests tell them; elite to above average RBs help the passing game via a strong play actions.
    Makes sense

  12. #1872
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    Quote Originally Posted by zookman65 View Post
    That is demonstrably incorrect. You can google for yourself and find deep level analysis that running effectiveness has no correlation to the success of play action passing. Linebackers are like kittens watching a ball of yarn. They will fall for it every time regardless of running prowess.
    So then why donít they run a PA every single time?

    Iíd think getting the LBs to bite would clear up space.

    Hoping Doug starts running PA every down going forwards and the boxscore shows 0 rushing attempts.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  13. #1873
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    So then why donít they run a PA every single time?

    Iíd think getting the LBs to bite would clear up space.

    Hoping Doug starts running PA every down going forwards and the boxscore shows 0 rushing attempts.


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    I actually hope the cowboys run PA every single time and the box score shows 0 rushing attempts. Thatíd be fun to watch

  14. #1874
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    So then why donít they run a PA every single time?

    Iíd think getting the LBs to bite would clear up space.

    Hoping Doug starts running PA every down going forwards and the boxscore shows 0 rushing attempts.
    Yeah, you gotta love those "scientific" analytics with no control group.

    Play action works regardless of the RB -- maybe because every team in the league is trying to run an offense with a .55 pass/run ratio?

    One could just as well argue that the effectiveness of play action comes from the fact that teams, which are leading in score, tend to run more, and therefore can use play action more effectively. I.e. winning teams have more effective play action vs. play action translates into wins.

  15. #1875
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    Every running back having an equal effect on play action doesnít seem very plausible to me.

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