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  1. #481
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    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    the next question is what the **** is happening with our young forwards? let's just run down the list:

    patrick -> DNP - post-concussion syndrome
    lindblom -> out for season - cancer.
    farabee -> some bad luck early (dammit hayes, drag your skate), but he also faded noticeably as the season went on.
    frost -> never given the chance to make a real impact, but he also wasn't able to force his way into the lineup by playing better than everyone else.


    i know this will sound pessimistic, but i don't think you can rely on any of them to fill top-9 roles next season.

    that's....not good.


    so the way i see it, there are two general paths for the forward corps:

    -> patient rebuilding.
    -> hit the accelerator and leave the kids behind.
    idk i think farabee had a role this year that he has done pretty well. He is not counted on to do much scoring but to provide solid minutes and learn the game. I think, with some solid work in the offseason, he can become a 40-50 points scorer for our team. He needs to become a stronger skater and do better down low. That will come with maturation.

    Frost, i have no idea when he will make an impact. Quicker he does, the sooner we will get to that target.

    As for the goal scorers...i don't think its giroux and tk. More like couts and tk. We are in the era of having couts/tk be the team leaders in scoring or close to it with giroux/voracek right behind them. If giroux/voracek can pull another ppg season here and there (or at least close to) with couts/tk providing the 30 goal seasons then watch out. We shouldn't really write off voracek and giroux not having a 70pt season ever again (not saying you our, just stating that).

    Losing patrick AND lindblom made all of this so fuzzy because we wouldn't have relied or needed to rely on farabee/frost having a 50+pt impact to help out team out. Patrick and lindblom should've, and in lindbloms case would have, been those 50+ pt guys. Now we have to find them somewhere in our middle 6. I think farabee can get there with work. Frost...depends on the situation but he definitely has the talent.

  2. #482
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    okay, now instead of answering that question, let's dig a bit deeper. i'm gonna start by separating our forward corps into some general age groups:

    <23: konecny, patrick, lindblom, farabee, frost
    24-29: couturier, hayes, laughton, pitlick, NAK
    30+: vorocek, giroux, JVR, grant, raffl


    since that appears to be pretty balanced in terms of bodies, i'm gonna ask a few more questions (which i also probably won't bother to answer).


    -> which of these groups has the most upside *for next season*? not 3 years from now; not over the next 5 years. just next year.
    -> which of these groups is most likely to underperform next season?
    -> on a scale of 1-5, how would you rank the expected variance for each of those groups next season? essentially, what's the difference between a reasonable best and worst case outcomes for each group, with 5 having a narrow spread between good and bad, and 1 being like shoveling freshly steaming manure into a turbine.



    some answers:
    -> i'd say the 30+ group actually has the most upside. JVR can net 30+ goals; giroux and voracek can give us 80+ points each. i don't see any other group matching that.

    -> it's hard to say any group is more likely to underperform than the sub-23 group. patrick and lindblom are total question marks going forward (that's not a criticism of either of them personally, or as players; life just gets in the way sometimes. their long term health is far more important than any performance related question). as noted previously, neither frost nor farabee were able to make substantial impacts this year.

    -> getting into consistency. on a scale of 1-5:
    <23 (the konecny group): 2.
    i'm still a believer in frost (moreso than farabee, even), but other than konecny, the downside is a black hole.

    24-29 (the couturier group): 5.
    couturier has now established himself as an elite #1 center. hayes has shown that even when he struggles offensively, he can positively impact all 3 phases. laughton is a solidly grindy swing forward. center? wing? doesn't matter. 2nd line? 4th line? he'll do the work on either.

    30+ (the giroux group): 4.
    giroux impacts all 3 zones like a goat. voracek and JVR have some lethargy issues when things aren't going well, but by the end of the year, their numbers seem to wind up where they should be. there's still a chance that one or both of them fall off a table, but for now, they seem fine.

  3. #483
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    getting back to this:

    so the way i see it, there are two general paths for the forward corps:

    -> patient rebuilding.
    -> hit the accelerator and leave the kids behind.
    first of all, that's a terrible question. it's a clear false dichotomy since there's an even more obvious 3rd option: napoleon's battle plan. now, putting that aside...


    i was inclined to advocate for patient rebuilding...until i just did that thing right up there. i think it's less risky in general to bet on younger players, rather than older ones, but after having gone through our younger options, i just can't say about our particular situation.

    if we dump voracek and JVR for picks, there's a very real possibility that our prospects won't be good enough to enable us to build around them. if that happens, the next few years will be like running in quicksand. "can the next batch of draft picks mature in time to get in the lineup while provorov/myers/sanheim are still be in their prime?"


    ugh.


    i just can't advocate for that after living through the last 7 years, so dumping voracek and JVR for picks is off the table.

  4. #484
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    okay, so there are still other possibilities.

    -> trading one of them for picks.
    i'm not sure what the trade market will look like; i'm not sure what their respective values are to other teams around the league; i have no idea what the cap will look like next year, and what the implications of that will be.

    i do know that this summer has a fairly weak free agent pool. that gives the flyers some leverage to make a deal.


    -> swapping voracek or JVR for a younger player.
    we would probably take a hit in talent, but it could help to balance the cap in the future. plus, getting it right could be another carter/richards situation, where guys are able to grow into bigger roles when they get here. there are always teams that want to make a splash.


    -> packaging voracek or JVR for an older star.
    NHL teams generally don't go full hinkie, so solid veterans like voracek and JVR can still have value for teams that expect to be bad.

    if CHI is ready to pack it in, adding kane, toews or keith would be huge for us.
    if LAK is willing to deal doughty or kopitar, i think i'm in.
    how much do ryan getzlaf or dustin byfuglien have left in the tank?


    if we're going to push for a cup run next year, these seem like the right lines to dig into. there's some risk, but if we get it right, we'll have enough talent to match up against anyone.
    Last edited by steagles; 04-08-2020 at 07:43 PM.

  5. #485
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    okay, so as far as i'm concerned, this is plan A.

    now, the questions become, what else is expendable? and what else has value?

    -> ghost.
    things just didn't work out for him this year, but i was impressed by what i saw when he came back (for one game).
    our current decision makers (fletcher and vigneault) were not around when ghost was tearing the league up a few years ago, so they may not appreciate the impact that he's capable of having on games. i do remember those years, so i would be hesitant to include ghost. it's also worth noting that he's a natural inclusion, due to the impending expansion draft.

    -> patrick.
    obviously, this is a non-starter due to his lengthy recovery, but he shouldn't be forgotten. if he was healthy, he has enough upside to bring teams to the table.

    -> sanheim.
    yeah, i'm not trading him either, but he's also worth mentioning if only to eliminate him.

    -> myers.
    see sanheim.

    -> farabee.
    yeah, i'd float him. wings tend to be replaceable, and i'm still not the biggest believer in him.

    -> frost.
    i am more hesitant to include frost than i am to include farabee. frost's speed, agility and hockey IQ are closer to elite than any of farabee's individual attributes, and since i tend to value those traits (both the attributes themselves and the importance of having players with elite attributes), i would not be eager to include him.



    ... and this is not going well.

    it's very hard to make trades when you aren't willing/able to include your most attractive assets.
    Last edited by steagles; 04-08-2020 at 08:13 PM.

  6. #486
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    okay, so plan A is settled:

    -> package voracek or JVR with prospects/picks/various assets to get a bomb.


    so before trying to find a plan B, let's go a bit deeper: what kind of bomb are we looking for?

    firstly, yes, the market for bombs isn't very liquid, so it's a sellers market. and even if the desired player is available, and even if your offer is great, someone else may beat it, or the other team may refuse to haggle. which means this is another terrible question. but what the hell else am i doing right now. so ...


    option A: patrick kane.
    let's start here since there are people who want to add a sniper. over the last 8 years kane has scored 653 points in 574 games, so he's a pure sniper. got 45 goals last year. he's going into his age 32 season, but he hasn't slowed down yet.

    obviously adding kane won't make us worse, but the question i'm honing in on is: will it make us better in the right way? does it make us tougher to play against? does it give us an advantage in style of play? does it help us win certain matchups that we may otherwise not be able to? is it just (just...ha) about raising our talent level?

    our scoring would obviously be improved. i don't think it compromises our play in the defensive zone at all. even if it costs voracek, kane is faster and quicker, and those are two of the more glaring weaknesses this team had this year. it does make the lineup smaller, and having kane, giroux and konecny does create some potential to be outmuscled, but i think that's only a minor concern.


    so, does it make us tougher to play against?
    -> i think so. he forces teams to tilt the ice towards him, which stresses defenders and creates opportunities for teammates.

    does it give us an advantage in style of play?
    -> i don't think so. adding kane seems more like a desperado situation because we don't have many other forwards with the speed to play at his pace. he would get to do his own thing, and it would mostly be outside of the general system that AV implements.

    does it help us win matchups we may otherwise not be able to?
    -> clearly. yes. kane has the same kind of qualities that ghost had (has?), where he is able to singlehandedly win games with individual brilliance. he can win a playoff game (and therefore a series) on his own. that's a bomb.



    so, that's option A.

  7. #487
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    ** i don't intend to dig into every single possible option, but rather to use specific players as stand-ins for general concepts. so, kane stands-in for flashy snipers (seguin, marner, marchessault, trocheck, etc.) across the league.

    and now, option B:

    -> anze kopitar.

    ** let me just start by acknowledging that i am heavily biased towards liking big bodied two-way centers who control the game in all 3 zones and all 3 phases. so, i'm going to like this one (i think).

    going back to a few core questions:

    does adding kopitar make us tougher to play against?
    does it give us an advantage in style of play?
    does it help us win certain matchups that we may otherwise not be able to?
    is it just (just...ha) about raising our talent level?


    -> tougher to play against?
    clearly. this is the appeal of adding kopitar to a lineup that already has couturier and hayes. kopitar has won 2 of the last 5 selke trophies, and couturier has 4 top 10 finishes (so far. and even that is a slap in the face, because of how much better he deserved). let me tell you all about a good way to make teams dread playing against you: shut down their three best lines, like it's less than nothing.

    -> style of play?
    clearly. hayes doesn't sniff the level of couturier and kopitar, but all 3 of them are built from the same general mold. take up space; get active in the neutral zone; be in the right place at the right time. that gives us continuity up and down the lineup (especially if the 4C turns out to be someone like grant, who is also built in this mold). thiis means every line we put on the ice will be able to play the same suffocating style for 60 minutes, without any let up.

    -> matchups?
    maybe, but probably not. again, adding great players is always good, but i'm looking at edge cases. anyone who can give couturier problems is also very likely to be able to give kopitar problems. that means adding kopitar isn't likely to solve this particular problem. otoh, since very few players are able to give couturier problems, having two players of that caliber would double the headaches for everyone else in the league. i like that idea alot.

    -> more than talent?
    clearly. kopitar is a very good offensive player, but this addition is 100% about locking down the neutral and defensive zones. adding kopitar can make this team one of the grindiest, most suffocating teams in the post-lockout era.

    2014 LAK : kopitar, carter, richards, stoll
    2008 DET : datsyuk, zetterburg, draper, filppula
    2013 CHI : toews, bolland, kruger, shaw, handzus
    2021 PHI? : couturier, kopitar, hayes, grant, laughton, patrick

    i mean, granted, we don't have quick or hasek; we don't have doughty, keith or lidstrom; we don't have hossa or brown...

    but we do have hart, provorov and giroux. i think that may be enough to get there.
    Last edited by steagles; 04-08-2020 at 11:30 PM.

  8. #488
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    oh, and fwiw: teams coached by AV tend to show up when you go looking for grindy, defensive-minded outliers:
    2011 VAN: kesler, sedin, malhotra -> #1 in goals against
    2015 NYR: brassard, moore, stepan, hayes -> #3 in goals against

  9. #489
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    Id look to trade our youth, for a young established elite scorer ...

    York or Ghost + Frost + 2 1sts ... 2020 and 2021 for Laine or Connor ... best of all worlds

    Move one Voracek

    Pray Lindblom gets better

    Lindblom Couturier Laine
    Farabee Hayes TK
    JVR Patrick G
    Pitlick Laughton Raf

    Provorov Nisky
    Sanheim Myers
    Zamula/York/Morin Friedman/Gudas


    Just hope Lindblom can get better ASAP.

  10. #490
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    Quote Originally Posted by steagles View Post
    if CHI is ready to pack it in, adding kane, toews or keith would be huge for us.
    if LAK is willing to deal doughty or kopitar, i think i'm in.
    how much do ryan getzlaf or dustin byfuglien have left in the tank?
    .
    im not trading voracek for keith, getzlaf, or byfuglien at alllll. I wouldn't even trade jvr for keith. Trade offense for defense doesn't make us better when our primary fill is more offense. Getzlaf would be a nice rental for a year or two but im not trading youngsters for an older, drop pass to no one getzlaf even though as a duck/flyer fan it would be siiiick. Kane and toews aren't going anywhere, came with kopitar.

  11. #491
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    Quote Originally Posted by castan_b View Post
    Id look to trade our youth, for a young established elite scorer ...

    York or Ghost + Frost + 2 1sts ... 2020 and 2021 for Laine or Connor ... best of all worlds

    Move one Voracek

    Pray Lindblom gets better

    Lindblom Couturier Laine
    Farabee Hayes TK
    JVR Patrick G
    Pitlick Laughton Raf

    Provorov Nisky
    Sanheim Myers
    Zamula/York/Morin Friedman/Gudas


    Just hope Lindblom can get better ASAP.
    even if he can't get better we can fill it with giroux and have nak in the bottom 6. Just need to get that top 6 winger.

    What we needed to do was/is find a trade where we can get a fiala type of player. Someone with skill who hasn't been given an opportunity. I would give anything to get timo meier or kyle connor. Two of my favorite wingers
    Last edited by 3iverson3; 04-09-2020 at 03:35 AM.

  12. #492
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    would you guys trade sanheim for if ghost came back to his old self for the remaining of his contract?

    mantha, connor, rackell


    or just go the cheaper route of what castan was going and just trade ghost for ehlers:

    g-couts-voracek
    ehlers-hayes-tk
    jvr-patrick-farabee
    Last edited by 3iverson3; 04-09-2020 at 03:39 AM.

  13. #493
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3iverson3 View Post
    would you guys trade sanheim for if ghost came back to his old self for the remaining of his contract?

    mantha, connor, rackell


    or just go the cheaper route of what castan was going and just trade ghost for ehlers:

    g-couts-voracek
    ehlers-hayes-tk
    jvr-patrick-farabee
    If we kept Myers, gun to my head ... probably.

    Zamula and York both make that less of a loss

  14. #494
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    im not trading voracek for keith, getzlaf, or byfuglien at alllll. I wouldn't even trade jvr for keith. Trade offense for defense doesn't make us better when our primary fill is more offense. Getzlaf would be a nice rental for a year or two but im not trading youngsters for an older, drop pass to no one getzlaf even though as a duck/flyer fan it would be siiiick. Kane and toews aren't going anywhere, came with kopitar.
    (overpaid?) middle-6 wings are disposable; top pair defensemen are not. i don't think it makes sense to dismiss the idea before investigating. and on that note

    option C:
    -> dustin byfuglien

    again, some key questions
    does adding byfuglien make us tougher to play against?
    does it give us an advantage in style of play?
    does it help us win certain matchups that we may otherwise not be able to?
    is it just (just...ha) about raising our talent level?


    -> tougher to play against?
    yeah. his physicality and his slapshot from the point are legit threats that opponents have to constantly be aware of.

    -> style of play?
    yup. our defense lacks some intimidation factor right now, and getting byfuglien definitely changes that. i probably overrate the importance of this, but there are players who will not take a hit to make a play, and they are not afraid of us right now. with byfuglien, they definitely would be.

    -> matchups?
    i suspect that some of those ricky watters types are playing in tampa and toronto right now, and byfuglien would be a difference in those matchups if that's true. if it's not, then he probably doesn't give us any meaningful advantage.

    -> more than talent?
    i think this one's close. on the one hand, yeah, his toughness matters. but on the other hand, i'm prone to overrating that particular attribute. additionally while bufgulien gives us another option for the PP, the ones we have are pretty damn good at it already (ghost, sanheim, provorov, niskanen, myers). i guess byfuglien could also be a net front-presence on the PP, and... that's actually pretty intriguing. imagine byfuglien slamming a one-timer from the inside hash marks, like hartnell used to. knees will get shattered.

  15. #495
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    Buff retired

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