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  1. #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    I don't really care how close we are to having the same opinion. I don't care if you give a marginal edge to the Cubs. You could be like Thawv and giving them a major edge. The problem here is you haven't really given a reason for that marginal edge, which would be more interesting to me if it could be justified. Tell me what sets the Cubs apart. They underperformed in 2019, but even with a 90 win season last year, the Cubs wouldn't have won the division. They would've beat out the Brewers by 1 game for a wild card spot, but that's not "standing out from the Brewers." What makes you believe that now, despite all the subtractions on the roster & the additions the Reds made, the Cubs are suddenly favorites?

    Thawv's & I suppose to a lesser extent, your own feelings are flawed, at least in terms of projection. There are objective projections that have the Cubs winning, there are objective projections that have the Cubs losing. There aren't objective projections that have the Cubs running away with the division or anything remotely close. The Cubs are a worse roster than they were last year.
    I didn't know I had to give you my reasons for optimism. But I can. I think Schwarber will be better this year. I do not think losing Castellanos is nearly as bad as some do. They were in first at the ASB without him. I think Happ has a chance of having a nice year, which would give them more from centerfield then they had last year. I am not as down on the rotation as others. I guess, I do not get why Lester HAS TO REGRESS. yet guys like Greinke, Scherzer, & Verlander are never discussed as a regression guy. I get Lester is not in that level, but why can't Lester stay exactly where he is? I also expect a big year from Darvish and Hendricks. I think those two can be as good as any pitcher in the NL Central. I also think Q can be a solid MOR starter this year. With this being his FA year, I expect him to be solid. The Cubs bench, 2nd base and centerfield were all very bad last year. I have more confidence in it this year. Between Bote, Nico, Kipnis, Happ and maybe even Almora or Souza I believe 2nd base, and center field will get better production. And with that same collection of guys, and Caratini and maybe Phegley I think the bench will be much better. I also think between Chatwood and Mills, the Cubs will figure out something for a 5th starter. And I am not nearly as worried about the pen as some are. I believe they will put together a solid pen with all the choices they have.
    As for the Reds, they did improve, but they are going to be very bad defensively. They will lose a lot of games because they just will not make as many plays as they should. And they have a lot of ground to gain based on 2019. Cubs underperformed and won 84 games. Probably should have won 90. Reds won 75 games. I realize you or others do not agree with a lot of what I am saying, which is fine. But you asked why I feel the Cubs are a slight favorite, and above are my reasons.

  2. #422
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I didn't know I had to give you my reasons for optimism. But I can. I think Schwarber will be better this year. I do not think losing Castellanos is nearly as bad as some do. They were in first at the ASB without him. I think Happ has a chance of having a nice year, which would give them more from centerfield then they had last year. I am not as down on the rotation as others. I guess, I do not get why Lester HAS TO REGRESS. yet guys like Greinke, Scherzer, & Verlander are never discussed as a regression guy. I get Lester is not in that level, but why can't Lester stay exactly where he is? I also expect a big year from Darvish and Hendricks. I think those two can be as good as any pitcher in the NL Central. I also think Q can be a solid MOR starter this year. With this being his FA year, I expect him to be solid. The Cubs bench, 2nd base and centerfield were all very bad last year. I have more confidence in it this year. Between Bote, Nico, Kipnis, Happ and maybe even Almora or Souza I believe 2nd base, and center field will get better production. And with that same collection of guys, and Caratini and maybe Phegley I think the bench will be much better. I also think between Chatwood and Mills, the Cubs will figure out something for a 5th starter. And I am not nearly as worried about the pen as some are. I believe they will put together a solid pen with all the choices they have.
    As for the Reds, they did improve, but they are going to be very bad defensively. They will lose a lot of games because they just will not make as many plays as they should. And they have a lot of ground to gain based on 2019. Cubs underperformed and won 84 games. Probably should have won 90. Reds won 75 games. I realize you or others do not agree with a lot of what I am saying, which is fine. But you asked why I feel the Cubs are a slight favorite, and above are my reasons.

  3. #423
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I didn't know I had to give you my reasons for optimism. But I can. I think Schwarber will be better this year. I do not think losing Castellanos is nearly as bad as some do. They were in first at the ASB without him. I think Happ has a chance of having a nice year, which would give them more from centerfield then they had last year. I am not as down on the rotation as others. I guess, I do not get why Lester HAS TO REGRESS. yet guys like Greinke, Scherzer, & Verlander are never discussed as a regression guy. I get Lester is not in that level, but why can't Lester stay exactly where he is? I also expect a big year from Darvish and Hendricks. I think those two can be as good as any pitcher in the NL Central. I also think Q can be a solid MOR starter this year. With this being his FA year, I expect him to be solid. The Cubs bench, 2nd base and centerfield were all very bad last year. I have more confidence in it this year. Between Bote, Nico, Kipnis, Happ and maybe even Almora or Souza I believe 2nd base, and center field will get better production. And with that same collection of guys, and Caratini and maybe Phegley I think the bench will be much better. I also think between Chatwood and Mills, the Cubs will figure out something for a 5th starter. And I am not nearly as worried about the pen as some are. I believe they will put together a solid pen with all the choices they have.
    As for the Reds, they did improve, but they are going to be very bad defensively. They will lose a lot of games because they just will not make as many plays as they should. And they have a lot of ground to gain based on 2019. Cubs underperformed and won 84 games. Probably should have won 90. Reds won 75 games. I realize you or others do not agree with a lot of what I am saying, which is fine. But you asked why I feel the Cubs are a slight favorite, and above are my reasons.
    Idk, I guess I just expect when you're trying to make an argument, that you explain the foundation for the argument.

    But why do you think those things? Half a season of Schwarber hitting the way he did in the 2nd half of last year is nice but it isn't anything prolonged, and you can't ignore his other half or the rest of his career. His full season performance was only marginally better offensively than 2018 in total. I think there's probably more upside to Schwarber too, but I still think the expectation should be some combination between his last two seasons. It's not super common for players with as much sample size as Schwarber to randomly break out at age 27 in his 5th year. Pretty similar argument can be made for Happ, in fact there's a good chance he also values out neutrally or negatively.

    Lester could stay where he is, but it's where do we expect him to be objectively? I believe he can basically be the same guy he has been since 2017 too, but at his age, regression isn't all that random anymore and can happen at any time. Just like with Lackey. Anyway, I don't hate our starting rotation either, but I also don't think they're a better rotation than the Cardinals & Reds. Nothing stands out. When you take bullpen and depth into consideration it's not even really close.

    I think our bench is gonna be just as bad as it was last year. Not to mention, 2B and CF are still pretty glaring holes. Almora probably won't be as bad as last year, but between the starts he, Descalso, Perez, Phegley get, that's a lot of negative value ABs we're giving out.

    Our lineup is probably better than the Reds & Cardinals. But I don't think it's any better than those rosters are better than us on the pitching side of things. Again, I don't see why the Cubs are any better. I don't think there's a strong argument they're much worse either, but yeah.

    Then there's one other element and it's the fact that the Cardinals & especially Reds have more depth in their system and are probably gonna be more willing & able to make a trade at the deadline to improve the team, or to do so in the event of an injury to a key player. I think the Cubs will be very reluctant to do anything of that kind.

  4. #424
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I agree they can win the division. I donít agree with bibbs that they have to over perform to do so. I donít think they need to get lucky to win the central. I think they are probably co-favorites for the division. And once playoffs start anything can happen. That said, they clearly would not be favorites.
    And if they are playing poorly or under performing at the deadline they will dump. However if mthey are leading the division they may add. What is the difference if they are $2M over or $20M over this year. Same penalty applies. They say they donít want to be over 3 years in a row. Which means if they are over in 20í they will be dropping guys in 21í. If that is really the case, and they decide to stay over in 20í they might as well go all in.
    Very true... and Iíd agree that they donít have to be under this year. If they are making a run and have a chance to really go for it all this year, then I say roll the dice and. Deal with next year in the offseason.

  5. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    Very true... and Iíd agree that they donít have to be under this year. If they are making a run and have a chance to really go for it all this year, then I say roll the dice and. Deal with next year in the offseason.
    They're not going to know about that in July, though. Let's not forget, last July we were 57-50. In first place. 4th Best pythag in the NL. They certainly didn't present on July 31st a team who was going to finish 7 games out of 1st first in 60 calendar days.

    The Cubs cannot afford to have that happen again, waste the year, and go under the tax next season, the last currently, of Bryant and Baez under contract. You either have to throw out an awesome team in 2020 (which they've already punted on) or get under this year and make 2021 awesome.

    This team isn't good enough to really think today they're among the 3-4 best teams in the NL. I know there's some optimism here that they *can* win the division, but today, it's not like they're some clear cut definitive team to make a playoffs. Things have to work out simply to make the playoffs this year, more so than just about any year since 2015. If they miss the playoffs and don't even have a shot in it, then they're going to be wasting the last definite year of the Bryant/Baez duo.

    This isn't the team to make that bet on. The risk is way greater than the payout here. It'd be highly disappointed if they don't get under this year with where we are now. They're going to go under this or next year. Just make it this year and make 2021 and beyond a better chance than simply 2020 and this iteration.

  6. #426
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    They're not going to know about that in July, though. Let's not forget, last July we were 57-50. In first place. 4th Best pythag in the NL. They certainly didn't present on July 31st a team who was going to finish 7 games out of 1st first in 60 calendar days.

    The Cubs cannot afford to have that happen again, waste the year, and go under the tax next season, the last currently, of Bryant and Baez under contract. You either have to throw out an awesome team in 2020 (which they've already punted on) or get under this year and make 2021 awesome.

    This team isn't good enough to really think today they're among the 3-4 best teams in the NL. I know there's some optimism here that they *can* win the division, but today, it's not like they're some clear cut definitive team to make a playoffs. Things have to work out simply to make the playoffs this year, more so than just about any year since 2015. If they miss the playoffs and don't even have a shot in it, then they're going to be wasting the last definite year of the Bryant/Baez duo.

    This isn't the team to make that bet on. The risk is way greater than the payout here. It'd be highly disappointed if they don't get under this year with where we are now. They're going to go under this or next year. Just make it this year and make 2021 and beyond a better chance than simply 2020 and this iteration.
    I don't disagree with anything you just said. but the topic is can this team win the central. To that I say it can. Now, if you want to suggest it would be better to just get under the LT this year and go big back at in next year, I agree with you. I would move Q now. But I would also try replacing him with a lower priced pitcher and still try in 20' albeit, under the LT. Or even if they can't do that and somehow challenged with Chatwood and Mills on the back end, I wouldn't add at the deadline. This half way stance they are currently in sucks.

  7. #427
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    I have a feeling there will be a lot of angry fans this year at the deadline when they sell and are sort in the mix for a playoff spot.

    I wonít complain if that happens though because I donít think it would be worth it to go over this year for a team thatís sort of in the playoff picture and then go under next year .


    Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


    El Mago

  8. #428
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dfan25 View Post
    I have a feeling there will be a lot of angry fans this year at the deadline when they sell and are sort in the mix for a playoff spot.

    I wonít complain if that happens though because I donít think it would be worth it to go over this year for a team thatís sort of in the playoff picture and then go under next year .


    Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk
    You are probably right. IMO if the Cubs are not 5 up and having a great year, I can see them dumping. So that would mean they could dump a few games either side of 1st place. That being the case, I honestly would rather see then deal Q now and be under. Have it understood they are going to stay under and let the chips fall where they may.

  9. #429
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    You are probably right. IMO if the Cubs are not 5 up and having a great year, I can see them dumping. So that would mean they could dump a few games either side of 1st place. That being the case, I honestly would rather see then deal Q now and be under. Have it understood they are going to stay under and let the chips fall where they may.
    I agree I donít like the risk that comes with having to cut payroll in season. They should trade Q right now IMO.


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    El Mago

  10. #430
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I don't disagree with anything you just said. but the topic is can this team win the central. To that I say it can. Now, if you want to suggest it would be better to just get under the LT this year and go big back at in next year, I agree with you. I would move Q now. But I would also try replacing him with a lower priced pitcher and still try in 20' albeit, under the LT. Or even if they can't do that and somehow challenged with Chatwood and Mills on the back end, I wouldn't add at the deadline. This half way stance they are currently in sucks.
    I mean, I just don't think there's going to be some magic replacement right now. It's going to be Mills. We need to accept that.

    Secondly, I think we can win the division. But it'll be a combo of a lot going right for the Cubs and a decent amount going wrong for the Reds. And that's just not a likely outcome. I think it's possible. I don't think it's likely. Which means this is a team who needs to be under the tax this year and make 2021 much better than this.

  11. #431
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    Here my question..
    What will Theo feel as strong enough to be WS contenders ?

    If they're say 10 games over in July battling for 1st or a WC spot, is that good enough to keep it together and or add..
    Or
    Will that be what puts them in a White Flag trade mode?

    Guess what I'm wondering is, in Theo mind, would they need to be 5 plus games up for a division or WC spot or just in contention to not go in white flag trade mode

  12. #432
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    Without doing any payroll shedding next year, besides giving Lester his 10 million buy out, they will be under close to 25 million. That includes arb projections that I did about a month ago. So they'll be able to even add about 20 million if they wanted to. So, maybe next year is the year to get under.

  13. #433
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Here my question..
    What will Theo feel as strong enough to be WS contenders ?

    If they're say 10 games over in July battling for 1st or a WC spot, is that good enough to keep it together and or add..
    Or
    Will that be what puts them in a White Flag trade mode?

    Guess what I'm wondering is, in Theo mind, would they need to be 5 plus games up for a division or WC spot or just in contention to not go in white flag trade mode
    I was thinking the same thing. Regardless of their record, where they are in the standings, or how he feels they are actually playing, it's going to be his subjective decision. He did after all say WS contender, not division. So they could have a nice lead in the division, and he could still feel like they can't win the WS. I doubt he pulls the trigger on being a seller at that point, but he did leave it up to his interpretation of a WS contender.

  14. #434
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Without doing any payroll shedding next year, besides giving Lester his 10 million buy out, they will be under close to 25 million. That includes arb projections that I did about a month ago. So they'll be able to even add about 20 million if they wanted to. So, maybe next year is the year to get under.
    They'll be under in that scenario because they lost 3/5 guys in their rotation in Quintana, Lester, and Chatwood. No one will miss Chatwood obviously, but just saying. Also pretty sure you're not accounting for arb increases. That money isn't gonna go far in regards to trying to fill 2 rotation spots anyway though. It'd be much better for the Cubs to get under this year rather than next so they could ideally spend that money on free agents or target higher AAV SPs in trades since the FA SP market doesn't look great for next year anyway.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 03-04-2020 at 04:27 PM.

  15. #435
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I was thinking the same thing. Regardless of their record, where they are in the standings, or how he feels they are actually playing, it's going to be his subjective decision. He did after all say WS contender, not division. So they could have a nice lead in the division, and he could still feel like they can't win the WS. I doubt he pulls the trigger on being a seller at that point, but he did leave it up to his interpretation of a WS contender.
    Right..
    Just curious if he/Rickett uses that as a copout excuse to get under the threshold

    If they're basically just there and not playing 600 plus ball with a big division lead, does he just start trading whomever to shed salary


    Players definitely wont be happy if they're in contention and they decide it not good enough and start trading players

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