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  1. #406
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    I hope the Cubs play very good this year and we make the postseason.


    Of course I hope for that every year but this year I want them to do so all of you have to eat crow.

  2. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    I hope the Cubs play very good this year and we make the postseason.


    Of course I hope for that every year but this year I want them to do so all of you have to eat crow.
    Well, at least your reasons are completely selfless and sincere.

  3. #408
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    Quote Originally Posted by TooL D/R/T View Post
    Well, at least your reasons are completely selfless and sincere.
    I can appreciate this as well, but I'm not gonna be eating crow. I acknowledge the possibility exists the Cubs could overperform and win this year. I think a lot would have to go right.

    I think there's not much foundation to expect the Cubs to win the division and have a deep playoff run this year.

    I'm glad baseball is almost back. I miss it a lot and whatever happens, I'm along for the ride.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 03-03-2020 at 10:33 PM.

  4. #409
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    I can appreciate this as well, but I'm not gonna be eating crow. I acknowledge the possibility exists the Cubs could overperform and win this year. I think a lot would have to go right.

    I think there's not much foundation to expect the Cubs to win the division and have a deep playoff run this year.

    I'm glad baseball is almost back. I miss it a lot and whatever happens, I'm along for the ride.
    I think a lot would have to go right for us and a lot would have to go wrong for some other teams for us to have a deep playoff run.

    But I think if our guys play to their level then winning our division is very possible. I know we aren't adding anything significant midseason, and may subtract, but I have every hope and confidence that we can certainly play within this division. Anyone saying anything else is just pessimistic or protecting themselves from putting to much faith in these guys... somewhat understandable after the way the last two years ended.

  5. #410
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    I think a lot would have to go right for us and a lot would have to go wrong for some other teams for us to have a deep playoff run.

    But I think if our guys play to their level then winning our division is very possible. I know we aren't adding anything significant midseason, and may subtract, but I have every hope and confidence that we can certainly play within this division. Anyone saying anything else is just pessimistic or protecting themselves from putting to much faith in these guys... somewhat understandable after the way the last two years ended.
    Iím not down on the Cubs because of the last two years, I think the 2018 Cubs were not a team anyone should be using as an example of a bad season, and I think the 2019 Cubs were a solid 90 win team that got unlucky and won 84. I think the Cubs are objectively less talented than last year and other teams in the division are more talented, particularly the Reds, and that the Cubs arenít in a good position to win this year. It still feels really likely that the Cubs will sell some more before the season expires. Why would my projection for the season be better than .500ish?

    The reasoning for my expectations are not emotionally based is what Iím trying to say here.

  6. #411
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    I think a lot would have to go right for us and a lot would have to go wrong for some other teams for us to have a deep playoff run.

    But I think if our guys play to their level then winning our division is very possible. I know we aren't adding anything significant midseason, and may subtract, but I have every hope and confidence that we can certainly play within this division. Anyone saying anything else is just pessimistic or protecting themselves from putting to much faith in these guys... somewhat understandable after the way the last two years ended.
    I agree they can win the division. I donít agree with bibbs that they have to over perform to do so. I donít think they need to get lucky to win the central. I think they are probably co-favorites for the division. And once playoffs start anything can happen. That said, they clearly would not be favorites.
    And if they are playing poorly or under performing at the deadline they will dump. However if mthey are leading the division they may add. What is the difference if they are $2M over or $20M over this year. Same penalty applies. They say they donít want to be over 3 years in a row. Which means if they are over in 20í they will be dropping guys in 21í. If that is really the case, and they decide to stay over in 20í they might as well go all in.

  7. #412
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I agree they can win the division. I donít agree with bibbs that they have to over perform to do so. I donít think they need to get lucky to win the central. I think they are probably co-favorites for the division. And once playoffs start anything can happen. That said, they clearly would not be favorites.
    And if they are playing poorly or under performing at the deadline they will dump. However if mthey are leading the division they may add. What is the difference if they are $2M over or $20M over this year. Same penalty applies. They say they donít want to be over 3 years in a row. Which means if they are over in 20í they will be dropping guys in 21í. If that is really the case, and they decide to stay over in 20í they might as well go all in.
    Isn't the fact that they're co-favorites, even by your admission, in what's likely to actually be a 4 team race indicative of the fact they'll need to have more luck and/or have a lot go right, at least more so than most to win this year?

  8. #413
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    Isn't the fact that they're co-favorites, even by your admission, in what's likely to actually be a 4 team race indicative of the fact they'll need to have more luck and/or have a lot go right, at least more so than most to win this year?
    Maybe it is just wording that is taken differently. When you say things like if the Cubs OVER PERFORM, that leads me to think you are suggesting the only way they can win is to over perform. In other words do something you don't expect. We might be at the same belief just stating it differently.
    So let's try this. IMO if all teams play to their absolute expectations, I would expect the Cubs to win the division. I don't feel they need things to go right, or get some sort of luck to win. They just need to play to the level I expect of them, or at least not have bad luck. IMO they are the most talented team in the division. I see it more of a 3 team race with the Brewers needing an awful lot to go right for them to make it a 4 team race. I agree it will be a close race. But if I had to pick a division winner, I would bet on the Cubs. Would you?

  9. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    I agree with this..

    Expectations for Darvish and Lester right now are just hopeful that they can show a glimmer of TOR type pitching this year

    So yes it important for them to have 5 starters that are capable of as a group, give you a chance to win 3 of 5 every time through the rotation if you want a chance to compete for the playoffs ..

    IMO, if a contending team has 2 top quality starters, then yes they can get away with just having a guy in the 5th slot who can at the very least stay healthy and eat up around 150 to 180 innings, and a team winning half their starts would be a high end goal.
    We have Darvish and Hendricks. I think that both of them finish in the top 10 Cy Young voting. I especially expect Yu to be on of the best pitchers in baseball.

  10. #415
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I agree they can win the division. I donít agree with bibbs that they have to over perform to do so. I donít think they need to get lucky to win the central. I think they are probably co-favorites for the division. And once playoffs start anything can happen. That said, they clearly would not be favorites.
    And if they are playing poorly or under performing at the deadline they will dump. However if mthey are leading the division they may add. What is the difference if they are $2M over or $20M over this year. Same penalty applies. They say they donít want to be over 3 years in a row. Which means if they are over in 20í they will be dropping guys in 21í. If that is really the case, and they decide to stay over in 20í they might as well go all in.
    Let's say they go over this year. Next year, without adding any FA's, they will be at about 186 million. They could add guys and still stay under. I wouldn't discount anything.

  11. #416
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Maybe it is just wording that is taken differently. When you say things like if the Cubs OVER PERFORM, that leads me to think you are suggesting the only way they can win is to over perform. In other words do something you don't expect. We might be at the same belief just stating it differently.
    So let's try this. IMO if all teams play to their absolute expectations, I would expect the Cubs to win the division. I don't feel they need things to go right, or get some sort of luck to win. They just need to play to the level I expect of them, or at least not have bad luck. IMO they are the most talented team in the division. I see it more of a 3 team race with the Brewers needing an awful lot to go right for them to make it a 4 team race. I agree it will be a close race. But if I had to pick a division winner, I would bet on the Cubs. Would you?
    I don't think I'd feel confident choosing any team as the best in the division. If there is, it's by a pretty marginal amount. It might be 26.66%-26.66%-26.66%-15% with the 15% going to the Brewers. You can say any team in the division will need things to go right for them and be right. It doesn't make me feel good about the Cubs' prospects.

    I don't see any reason to believe the Cubs have a roster that truly sets them apart from the other 3 teams in the league. It hasn't been the case since 2017. It shouldn't be the case now since they've only subtracted.

  12. #417
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    Objective projections and Vegas both have the Cubs winning the division.

    I'm not sure what some on here are so pessimistic about. They under performed last season and still won 84 games. If they just perform as expected, the should be in the mid to upper 80's. If they over perform, I'd expect low to mid 90's.

  13. #418
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    I don't think I'd feel confident choosing any team as the best in the division. If there is, it's by a pretty marginal amount. It might be 26.66%-26.66%-26.66%-15% with the 15% going to the Brewers. You can say any team in the division will need things to go right for them and be right. It doesn't make me feel good about the Cubs' prospects.

    I don't see any reason to believe the Cubs have a roster that truly sets them apart from the other 3 teams in the league. It hasn't been the case since 2017. It shouldn't be the case now since they've only subtracted.
    Bibbs, I think we are very close on our opinion of the team. I might have it closer to 33% Cubs, 28% Reds, 28% Cardinals and the remaining to the Brewers. I am probably just reading too much into some of your phraseology. I agree they are not this prohibited favorite. But I do expect them to battle for the division all year, and very possible win it.

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Objective projections and Vegas both have the Cubs winning the division.

    I'm not sure what some on here are so pessimistic about. They under performed last season and still won 84 games. If they just perform as expected, the should be in the mid to upper 80's. If they over perform, I'd expect low to mid 90's.
    This is about what my feelings are. I see more likely a mid to upper 80 win team here. But to me, you talk more confident than that. You sound more like you expect 90+. That is where I draw the line. Or you have little respect for anyone else in the division. Maybe you don't expect another team win play even 500 ball. And, again, I wouldn't agree with that. I would not be shocked if the Cubs, Cardinals or Reds won the central, with a slight edge to the Cubs.

  14. #419
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Bibbs, I think we are very close on our opinion of the team. I might have it closer to 33% Cubs, 28% Reds, 28% Cardinals and the remaining to the Brewers. I am probably just reading too much into some of your phraseology. I agree they are not this prohibited favorite. But I do expect them to battle for the division all year, and very possible win it.



    This is about what my feelings are. I see more likely a mid to upper 80 win team here. But to me, you talk more confident than that. You sound more like you expect 90+. That is where I draw the line. Or you have little respect for anyone else in the division. Maybe you don't expect another team win play even 500 ball. And, again, I wouldn't agree with that. I would not be shocked if the Cubs, Cardinals or Reds won the central, with a slight edge to the Cubs.
    I don't really care how close we are to having the same opinion. I don't care if you give a marginal edge to the Cubs. You could be like Thawv and giving them a major edge. The problem here is you haven't really given a reason for that marginal edge, which would be more interesting to me if it could be justified. Tell me what sets the Cubs apart. They underperformed in 2019, but even with a 90 win season last year, the Cubs wouldn't have won the division. They would've beat out the Brewers by 1 game for a wild card spot, but that's not "standing out from the Brewers." What makes you believe that now, despite all the subtractions on the roster & the additions the Reds made, the Cubs are suddenly favorites?

    Thawv's & I suppose to a lesser extent, your own feelings are flawed, at least in terms of projection. There are objective projections that have the Cubs winning, there are objective projections that have the Cubs losing. There aren't objective projections that have the Cubs running away with the division or anything remotely close. The Cubs are a worse roster than they were last year.

  15. #420
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Bibbs, I think we are very close on our opinion of the team. I might have it closer to 33% Cubs, 28% Reds, 28% Cardinals and the remaining to the Brewers. I am probably just reading too much into some of your phraseology. I agree they are not this prohibited favorite. But I do expect them to battle for the division all year, and very possible win it.



    This is about what my feelings are. I see more likely a mid to upper 80 win team here. But to me, you talk more confident than that. You sound more like you expect 90+. That is where I draw the line. Or you have little respect for anyone else in the division. Maybe you don't expect another team win play even 500 ball. And, again, I wouldn't agree with that. I would not be shocked if the Cubs, Cardinals or Reds won the central, with a slight edge to the Cubs.
    I'm expecting the Cubs to be somewhere between 88 and 92 wins. Mostly because I think they have much more talent than any other team in the division. I could see 2 additional teams playing .500 but barely. I'm not impressed with anybody in our division other than the Cubs.

    Cubs 88-92 wins
    Cards 84-88
    Reds 80-84
    Brewers 76-80
    Pirates whatever
    Last edited by thawv; 03-04-2020 at 12:25 PM.

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