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  1. #631
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    I don't think that anyone is suggesting teams aren't paying attention to them. I think the argument is more along the lines of "maybe they shouldn't very often". CP414 has shown Zaguins won a spot last year, proceeded to suck, get shipped to AAA and then was a below average player there. I've shown that Ian Miller and Trent Giambrone's adjusted AAA stats last year would make them purely awful MLB players. I'm not sure there's really any statistics to even show that strong ST's numbers flow into the regular season. We know plenty about statistics to know that 50 PA's is not a statistically relevant sample size during the season. It's not enough for numbers to stabilize in most cases, and we know how much SSS issues can be. It seems like because these numbers happen at the very start of the season, people give them an evaluative weight they don't deserve.
    From what I've read on here, and at least the point that I made about spring training is that it DOES matter to the guy(s) trying to get the last spot or two.

    For a guy on the bubble, having a good ST is a definite advantage opposed to having a bad ST. And I said before, it's very possible that they won't stick anyway. The topic is ST being important to the last guy trying to make the OD roster. It doesn't have to be argued to death. It IS important in those situations.

  2. #632
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cubboy View Post
    Who here remembers Gary Scott?
    Me

  3. #633
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    From what I've read on here, and at least the point that I made about spring training is that it DOES matter to the guy(s) trying to get the last spot or two.

    For a guy on the bubble, having a good ST is a definite advantage opposed to having a bad ST. And I said before, it's very possible that they won't stick anyway. The topic is ST being important to the last guy trying to make the OD roster. It doesn't have to be argued to death. It IS important in those situations.
    But why? Why is ST important for that? No one has really explained why other than "that's what teams do" and "because...if everything is equal". But, really, how many times are guys that equal? Really...? If you can't explain why, then is it actually important? Why is what someone does in SSS extreme in Arizona against spurious talent important? A team should know who they think is the better player in almost every situation. Even you said it...it's possible they won't stick. So if we can both agree that ST stats have realistically no bearing on whether they'll be good or bad in the regular season, why is it such an advantage? At best it's recency bias.

    I'd argue, again, one of the very few situations that exist with these players are situations where you're looking for health. Like the Cubs should be doing with the BP. But guys like Ian Miller...or Trent Giambrone...or Tyler Chatwood...you have enough data on these players. You already thought they were good or bad at a thing.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 03-11-2020 at 06:37 PM.

  4. #634
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    But why? Why is ST important for that? No one has really explained why other than "that's what teams do" and "because...if everything is equal". But, really, how many times are guys that equal? Really...? If you can't explain why, then is it actually important? Why is what someone does in SSS extreme in Arizona against spurious talent important? A team should know who they think is the better player in almost every situation. Even you said it...it's possible they won't stick. So if we can both agree that ST stats have realistically no bearing on whether they'll be good or bad in the regular season, why is it such an advantage? At best it's recency bias.

    I'd argue, again, one of the very few situations that exist with these players are situations where you're looking for health. Like the Cubs should be doing with the BP. But guys like Ian Miller...or Trent Giambrone...or Tyler Chatwood...you have enough data on these players. You already thought they were good or bad at a thing.

  5. #635
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    ST is different today then it was 20 plus years ago, when guys were actually fighting for a contract and go North.

    Today, Teams are pretty much set going into ST because the majority, if not all for most teams, the 25 are already under contract.

    If there any competition going on for a roster spot, it usually guys who are either fringe minor leaguers, or guys with options left, looking to claim a reliever spot or bench spot.

    ST today, players basically use it to gain their timing back, work on whatever they need to work on, pitchers are slowly getting their pitch count up..
    Young prospects are getting their taste

    I remember back in the day, I used to watch the box scores to see who looking good and can make the team out of ST, now it doesn't matter because it all about contracts, service time and minor league options...

    As far as stats goes, I've seen quite a few players go through the motion during ST and had bad numbers but had good to great April/season and vice versa great ST numbers and sucked in April/season

    Only thing I like to see in ST is at the last couple games , the regulars look ready, and they play well as a team with the regulars going longer.

  6. #636
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cubboy View Post
    Who here remembers Gary Scott?
    Forget that, who remembers Todd Haney?
    Screw sabermetics.

  7. #637
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    His 8 innings of ST performance is even less meaningful than the arbitrary 32 IP sample from last year. Chatwood is 30. He's entering his 9th season. I think it's highly, highly unlikely he's gonna be substantially better than he's ever been in his career. Again, I think people should be happy to just get a competent 5th starter type season from him after the last two years.
    All Theo wanted when he signed Chatwood is for Chatwood to be who he was with the Rockies, but away from Coors. He did that with us last year. His walks and K's were typical for him last year unlike 2018 when he walked the world. Chatwood pitched fantastically away from Coors with the Rockies, in 3 seasons as a starter (2017, 2016, and 2013 (I took out 2014/2015 because he was hurt) with the Rockies he had a 2.74 ERA in 35 starts on the road since 2013. That's why we signed him, Theo rolled the dice and tried to catch lightening in a bottle. He hit a huge snag in 2018, which was not a typical season for him at all.

    Chatwood has a lot of potential if he can keep his BB/9 IP around what what his career average is. It's just nice to see this spring that his major control issues from 2018 still seem to be not an issue.

  8. #638
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stratos View Post
    All Theo wanted when he signed Chatwood is for Chatwood to be who he was with the Rockies, but away from Coors. He did that with us last year. His walks and K's were typical for him last year unlike 2018 when he walked the world. Chatwood pitched fantastically away from Coors with the Rockies, in 3 seasons as a starter (2017, 2016, and 2013 (I took out 2014/2015 because he was hurt) with the Rockies he had a 2.74 ERA in 35 starts on the road since 2013. That's why we signed him, Theo rolled the dice and tried to catch lightening in a bottle. He hit a huge snag in 2018, which was not a typical season for him at all.

    Chatwood has a lot of potential if he can keep his BB/9 IP around what what his career average is. It's just nice to see this spring that his major control issues from 2018 still seem to be not an issue.
    No. Chatwood did not "pitch fantastic". His ERA was fantastic in 2016, it was good in 2017. But and there's a big but...his underlying numbers suggested that ERA was not to be believed, by posting xFIP's about 4.40 both seasons. In 2016, a 4.39 xFIP put him below a league average SP. In 2017, it was almost exactly league average.

    Chatwood was below or right at league average in 2016-2017 on the road. He was mediocre but outpitched those numbers. Yes, he rolled the dice. Yeah, I kind of get the contract. But can we please not say that a pitcher who was not even a league average SP both seasons based on underlying numbers was "fantastic"? And let's not say anything about his ST. He's had under 9 IP. If he walked 4 guys in 2 innings tomorrow, his numbers would be way out of whack. It's small sample size.

    If Chatwood can be the slightly below league average guy he was on the road in 2016-2017, he'll be an acceptable #5. But let's not go crazy here. He's never been a 2 fWAR guy. He's never been "fantastic" on the road. He's got the capability now to be acceptable.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 03-11-2020 at 08:58 PM.

  9. #639
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    My guess is you're using bWAR, which relies more on ERA. For fWAR, which depends on FIP, he's never had a greater than a 2 WAR season. At best, he's never been more than a backend starter.
    He pitched in Coors.

    He doesn't have ace potential or anything, his walks are too high. But he can be a solid #3 starter if he just goes out and performs as he has done in his career away from Coors. He can be a 3.40-3.70 ERA starter, if he has a really good year he could do even better. In 2013 he had a 3.15 ERA in 20 starts, that included 11 starts at Coors. I'm not expecting that. He has the potential to be a solid starter for us, a #3 type, if he doesn't turn into Rick Ankiel again. That's why he was signed in the first place.

  10. #640
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    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  11. #641
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    No. Chatwood did not "pitch fantastic". His ERA was fantastic in 2016, it was good in 2017. But and there's a big but...his underlying numbers suggested that ERA was not to be believed, by posting xFIP's about 4.40 both seasons. In 2016, a 4.39 xFIP put him below a league average SP. In 2017, it was almost exactly league average.

    Chatwood was below or right at league average in 2016-2017 on the road. He was mediocre but outpitched those numbers. Yes, he rolled the dice. Yeah, I kind of get the contract. But can we please not say that a pitcher who was not even a league average SP both seasons based on underlying numbers was "fantastic"? And let's not say anything about his ST. He's had under 9 IP. If he walked 4 guys in 2 innings tomorrow, his numbers would be way out of whack. It's small sample size.

    If Chatwood can be the slightly below league average guy he was on the road in 2016-2017, he'll be an acceptable #5. But let's not go crazy here. He's never been a 2 fWAR guy. He's never been "fantastic" on the road. He's got the capability now to be acceptable.
    So it's not good that he out pitched his FIP? Would you rather it be the other way around? Results matter.

  12. #642
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    So it's not good that he out pitched his FIP? Would you rather it be the other way around? Results matter.
    What an infuriatingly ignorant reply. FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching. In other words, it's the pitcher's isolated pitching performance (AKA results). I feel like it's back to basics, but the reason FIP is better is that it's not influenced by luck and defense (things outside of a pitcher's control). Having an ERA different from your FIP is not like having performance different than a projection. FIP, much like wOBA and batting average, is just a better measurement of a pitcher's performance than ERA is. And his FIP/xFIP turned out to be much more predictive in the long run, as Chatwood did not sustain those low ERAs in the long run. His ERA went on to look much more like his FIP/xFIP.

  13. #643
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    So it's not good that he out pitched his FIP? Would you rather it be the other way around? Results matter.
    Okay, one, I hate this idea that FIP and xFIP aren't "results". They're 100% "results". His xFIP is the "result" of how he pitched. Calling them any other than "results" under values them, which is what creates silliness. So, let's please, be careful of what we call things.

    If you're saying "his ERA matters" then...kind of. It matters in the moment. Yes, if Chatwood goes out, throws 7 IP, gives up 0 runs but walks 6...sure. Great job, Tyler. 0 ERA. But we all know how unsustainable that is. He didn't "pitch" well. He got lucky. So on that given Tuesday or whatever, it's a good thing. Heading forward? It's a bad thing. Because players who's ERA outpaces their FIP/xFIP numbers spells disaster. It says "this guy is a ticking time bomb". The luck is running out.

    So, yeah, it's great he had a nice ERA in 2016 on the road or whatever. But when you pitch like a below average SP, and your ERA is that of a TORP, it should send you running. It's entirely unsustainable. For the Cubs, it's not good. He was on Colorado in 2016. And it says "this is a ticking time bomb. You should probably run away". Pointing to his 2016 road ERA and saying "hey look at how well it went!" is ignoring how the guy actually pitched. He was lucky to get that ERA. The whole "better to be lucky than good thing" is a load of horseshit. It's better to be good. Always.

  14. #644
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    NBA is suspending the season until further notice. Wow.

  15. #645
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