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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #1321
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    yup we should have locked things completely down in feb.... had we known the real numbers we probably would have locked **** down in november/december.... i really hope the world turns on china but we wont because we need them because we rely on them like everyone else an insane amount.
    Look, it's easy to look back and say woulda shoulda coulda. Locking down an entire economy is a TOUGH decision.

    But when we had our first confirmed cases, SOMETHING should have happened. It has nothing to do with China numbers, it has everything to do with science and lack of response from America. We should have started screening certain travelers and should have started enacting small crowd sizes. Really it should have been within a week of our first case that huge arenas holding 5,000 people or more should have all been shut down, straight up.

    But our govt was asleep. Theres just no way around that.

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  2. #1322
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    No, their numbers had an incredibly high death rate, in january I believe it was at 4%, something staggering like that.

    Of course the more people got tested, the more we realized this disease is spread much more than we realized, and so the death rate came down as more people tested positive.



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    Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9.

    Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.

    Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.

    Jan. 11Ė17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.

    Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.

    Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus."

  3. #1323
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9.

    Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.

    Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.

    Jan. 11Ė17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.

    Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.

    Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus."
    The two most important.

    Jan 21st, first confirmed case in USA

    Jan 23rd, Wuhan gets shut down

    That's all the evidence you need for anything right there. At that point, any lack of reaction is one hundred percent our own fault.

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    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  4. #1324
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    Look, it's easy to look back and say woulda shoulda coulda. Locking down an entire economy is a TOUGH decision.

    But when we had our first confirmed cases, SOMETHING should have happened. It has nothing to do with China numbers, it has everything to do with science and lack of response from America. We should have started screening certain travelers and should have started enacting small crowd sizes. Really it should have been within a week of our first case that huge arenas holding 5,000 people or more should have all been shut down, straight up.

    But our govt was asleep. Theres just no way around that.

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    continue to be oblivious... the timeline for chinas numbers and how it started had the world thinking this was a massive joke and yet you still believe their first reported case and our first reported case... their timeline/lies and underplaying ****ed everything up from the start... sure there is enough blame to go around for everyone but china should be black balled going forward because the blame is more than half their fault.

  5. #1325
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    The two most important.

    Jan 21st, first confirmed case in USA

    Jan 23rd, Wuhan gets shut down

    That's all the evidence you need for anything right there.

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  6. #1326
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    iran official called chinese numbers a joke

    brazil PM says china did this on purpose for world domination




    here is from our own ****ing intelligence lol


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...elligence-says

  7. #1327
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    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...statistics-now


    china lied for months... lie after lie... literally everyone in the world.... -nasty- false why would china lie

  8. #1328
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    R is a correlation rate. A .99 r number can be completely expected in certain scenarios. You are giving an example with an expected r of 0.5. Heads and tails is 50 50. So of course an r value of .99 is suspicious in that scenario.

    But let's say we are studying correlation of decapitation and death. That would probably have a .99 r value. Actually probably a 1.0 r. Everytime I decapitate someone, they die.

    So how unlikely this is depends on what statistics this r value is predicated upon.
    Iíll make it easy for you: the r value of mortality rates and projection models is not r99 and getting an r99 almost certainly means the numbers are not real.

    I know this because statisticians told me so. You disagree because well, you donít really know, but you do.

    That is the difference.

  9. #1329
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    continue to be oblivious... the timeline for chinas numbers and how it started had the world thinking this was a massive joke and yet you still believe their first reported case and our first reported case... their timeline/lies and underplaying ****ed everything up from the start... sure there is enough blame to go around for everyone but china should be black balled going forward because the blame is more than half their fault.
    Sure, the blame is completely their fault, they're the ones who let it spread.

    I been saying since January trump shoulda already been putting pressure on them for this **** up.

    That doesn't make our response any less pathetic.

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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  10. #1330
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    [emoji23]
    ??

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  11. #1331
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    Sure, the blame is completely their fault, they're the ones who let it spread.

    I been saying since January trump shoulda already been putting pressure on them for this **** up.

    That doesn't make our response any less pathetic.

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    most other places at the time had the same response with the biggest difference being we have way more people coming and going meaning everyone took their numbers and planned around their numbers... the infrastructure of everyone's planning was built by the numbers we were given..... what happens if you build something without the structural support to keep it together?

  12. #1332
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    Iíll make it easy for you: the r value of mortality rates and projection models is not r99 and getting an r99 almost certainly means the numbers are not real.

    I know this because statisticians told me so. You disagree because well, you donít really know, but you do.

    That is the difference.
    I disagree because I understand what an r value is, I've plotted them in graphs before, and so I am saying it depends on what they are getting an r value for. The article never explained what the r value is exactly, it said a measure of casualties but it didnt say what that's being measured against.

    There are definitely scenarios where we would expect an r value of .99. Maybe this china pandemic isnt one of them, but you said an r value of .99 automatically means false and that's not the case.

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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  13. #1333
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    most other places at the time had the same response with the biggest difference being we have way more people coming and going meaning everyone took their numbers and planned around their numbers... the infrastructure of everyone's planning was built by the numbers we were given..... what happens if you build something without the structural support to keep it together?
    No, russia already started closing down most of their china border back in January.

    Again, Wuhan shut down on the 23rd. It happened in front of all of us. The fact that they shut down already told us what to expect if we dont react.


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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  14. #1334
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    No, russia already started closing down most of their china border back in January.

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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...isis-escalates


    trump also wanted to shut down things from china in january... again russia is just now closing all of its boarders.

  15. #1335
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    https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/16/co...ia-travel-ban/


    russia didnt start doing anything much like the US until mid march... they closed their borders to just china in mid to late january
    Last edited by More-Than-Most; 04-08-2020 at 04:01 PM.

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