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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #1306
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    Ok, 100% fair stance.

    To me, my focus is on america, why did we have such an obvious break down in our govt? It's not cuz I'm tryina prop china and bash america, its because I live HERE. The incompetence our govt showed is a concern to me, they proved they do not understand science nor are they capable or enacting even minimal national security measures in response.

    We pay their salary. We should all be pretty pissed.

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    the same reason the rest of the world at the start took similar paths... we all reacted to the data given to us and should have reacted much more scared but countries are stingy with resources and dont want to over prepare for something that could happen but might not happen. I fault us and other countries for not acting quicker in Feb when things started to blow up but this virus was already rampant well before then and china gave no ****s personally because they know the world needs them to much to take action for their carelessness and stupidity. The US is looking so bad numbers wise because our country goes all over the place more than any other country.

  2. #1307
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    I'm pretty sure that from January, when we had our first case, china was already open with their info regarding it initially showing up sometime around late november

    We had all the info we needed

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    the ****... We are using the data now because we have the data comparison from all other countries.... china was open with their information but that doesnt help with perfect data... we needed to compare their data with everyone elses but we couldnt do that at the start because nobody else had the numbers.... that is why we can tell now with perfect data that china lied their ***** off and ****ed everyone else.... at the start in January all we had to go with was what china told everyone

    also their projected numbers are far to perfect... that just cant happen.
    Last edited by More-Than-Most; 04-08-2020 at 02:58 PM.

  3. #1308
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    A statistical analysis of Chinaís coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say isnít likely to naturally occur



    now that we see their model and their actual numbers from months of data we can see that its full of **** but somehow we should have known better with perfect data before actually having the data? what the hell lol

  4. #1309
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    in what world does this even remotely make sense
    Not any world I'm familiar with.

  5. #1310
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    Thanks for actually answering.

    Unfortunately they article doesnt go into detail, or if it did I couldn't read back over because it asks me to subscribe. But essentially they are saying that the numbers are too perfect, too predictable. It's certainly a point to be made, but this is enough to make you dismiss their numbers? I doubt it. I doubt if the US statistics had a r value that high that this many people would entirely dismiss them based off just that.
    See the reason you donít think this invalidates their numbers is because you have no concept of statistics.

    To use an analogy. A 99% prediction rate is essentially impossible.

    This would be like claiming because the chances of a coin flip are 50/50 heads or tails, you flipped a coin 100 times and got heads followed by tales 100 times in a row.

    Statistical fluctuations tell us itís near impossible to have it be heads, tails, heads, tails, etc. all the way 100 times. Statistically, there will be fluctuations like two or three heads in a row, 2 tails in a row, etc. but that if given enough flips, heads and tails would both appear an equal number of times because their odds are 50/50.

    That is why their numbers are simply impossible to anyone who understands statistics.

  6. #1311
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    the ****... We are using the data now because we have the data comparison from all other countries.... china was open with their information but that doesnt help with perfect data... we needed to compare their data with everyone elses but we couldnt do that at the start because nobody else had the numbers.... that is why we can tell now with perfect data that china lied their ***** off and ****ed everyone else.... at the start in January all we had to go with was what china told everyone

    also their projected numbers are far to perfect... that just cant happen.
    But we COULD have done it at the start, we just didnt. We already knew in January that this was a new disease that showed exponential growth. We knew that, china didnt hide this from us.

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  7. #1312
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    A statistical analysis of Chinaís coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say isnít likely to naturally occur



    now that we see their model and their actual numbers from months of data we can see that its full of **** but somehow we should have known better with perfect data before actually having the data? what the hell lol
    The claim is they used a near perfect prediction model, so it must be fake. Even if it was fake, that just means america is dumber than we thought, because they had numbers so perfect to the point that we think they may be fake, and we still couldn't react accordingly.

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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  8. #1313
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    See the reason you donít think this invalidates their numbers is because you have no concept of statistics.

    To use an analogy. A 99% prediction rate is essentially impossible.

    This would be like claiming because the chances of a coin flip are 50/50 heads or tails, you flipped a coin 100 times and got heads followed by tales 100 times in a row.

    Statistical fluctuations tell us itís near impossible to have it be heads, tails, heads, tails, etc. all the way 100 times. Statistically, there will be fluctuations like two or three heads in a row, 2 tails in a row, etc. but that if given enough flips, heads and tails would both appear an equal number of times because their odds are 50/50.

    That is why their numbers are simply impossible to anyone who understands statistics.
    R is a correlation rate. A .99 r number can be completely expected in certain scenarios. You are giving an example with an expected r of 0.5. Heads and tails is 50 50. So of course an r value of .99 is suspicious in that scenario.

    But let's say we are studying correlation of decapitation and death. That would probably have a .99 r value. Actually probably a 1.0 r. Everytime I decapitate someone, they die.

    So how unlikely this is depends on what statistics this r value is predicated upon.

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    Last edited by nastynice; 04-08-2020 at 03:21 PM.
    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  9. #1314
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    The claim is they used a near perfect prediction model, so it must be fake. Even if it was fake, that just means america is dumber than we thought, because they had numbers so perfect to the point that we think they may be fake, and we still couldn't react accordingly.

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    WE COULDNT KNOW THEIR NUMBERS OR MODEL WERE FAKE AT THE START LOL... how could we know their numbers would follow their model to a t?????????????????????? omg this is insanity

  10. #1315
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    WE COULDNT KNOW THEIR NUMBERS OR MODEL WERE FAKE AT THE START LOL... how could we know their numbers would follow their model to a t?????????????????????? omg this is insanity
    No, what I'm saying is those fake numbers should have only helped us have a better response, since they were so perfect at predicting disease course

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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  11. #1316
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    even the chinese people think their numbers are ******** yet nasty defends defends defends....


    Cohenís letter offers a reminder that the pandemic sweeping the globe could have been stopped at its source. Instead, the Chinese Communist Party suppressed the truth, destroyed evidence and lied to the world.

    Itís still lying, including about its own death totals. The official count in the country of 1.4 billion people is that just 3,322 died, but dissident groups and others within China say the actual fatalities are monstrously higher.

    The Washington Post, citing reports of tens of thousands of urns being delivered to funeral parlors, of cremation units working 24 hours a day, and of long lines of people waiting to pick up their loved onesí ashes, suggested that the virus killed between 42,000 and 48,000 in China.

    Itís not surprising, then, that its Communist Party lies to the world. If itís willing to lie to its own citizens about how many the virus killed, why would we ever assume it would tell us the truth?

    The dying started in China, but did not stop there. Every death from the coronavirus has its roots there.

    The count is staggering: More than 81,000 dead around the world as of Tuesday afternoon, with over 12,000 of those in America.

    Which brings us to another continuing lie ó the ultimate source of the outbreak. Although Chinese scientists tracked the initial cluster of cases to a food market in Wuhan in December, the countryís leaders ďdisappearedĒ some of those scientists and tried to wiggle out of any responsibility.

    Starting in February and expanding in March, top officials and government media began blaming US military personnel for bringing the disease to China. It is a preposterous claim, but the goal seems to have been simply to create an alternative to the truth and thereby cause doubts about responsibility.

    Thatís the brazen plan ó stack lie upon lie in the hopes that one will stick. Meanwhile, the clumsy effort itself has helped to fuel speculation that the virus might have leaked from a government virology lab not far from the Wuhan market.

  12. #1317
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    No, what I'm saying is those fake numbers should have only helped us have a better response, since they were so perfect at predicting disease course

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    so their fake numbers which had an incredibly low death rate that limited the disease and what it was capable of should have prepared us for the monster this actually is??????????? that is your logic? us following their numbers of them underplaying severely on the actual numbers showing us that this wasnt anywhere near as bad as the flu at the time should prepare us better for something that is far far worse then the flu? that is what you are saying?

  13. #1318
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    A top White House adviser starkly warned Trump administration officials in late January that the coronavirus crisis could cost the United States trillions of dollars and put millions of Americans at risk of illness or death.

    The warning, written in a memo by Peter Navarro, President Trumpís trade adviser, is the highest-level alert known to have circulated inside the West Wing as the administration was taking its first substantive steps to confront a crisis that had already consumed Chinaís leaders and would go on to upend life in Europe and the United States.

    ďThe lack of immune protection or an existing cure or vaccine would leave Americans defenseless in the case of a full-blown coronavirus outbreak on U.S. soil,Ē Mr. Navarroís memo said. ďThis lack of protection elevates the risk of the coronavirus evolving into a full-blown pandemic, imperiling the lives of millions of Americans.Ē

    Dated Jan. 29, it came during a period when Mr. Trump was playing down the risks to the United States, and he would later go on to say that no one could have predicted such a devastating outcome.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...virus.amp.html

  14. #1319
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    yup we should have locked things completely down in feb.... had we known the real numbers we probably would have locked **** down in november/december.... i really hope the world turns on china but we wont because we need them because we rely on them like everyone else an insane amount.

  15. #1320
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    so their fake numbers which had an incredibly low death rate that limited the disease and what it was capable of should have prepared us for the monster this actually is??????????? that is your logic? us following their numbers of them underplaying severely on the actual numbers showing us that this wasnt anywhere near as bad as the flu at the time should prepare us better for something that is far far worse then the flu? that is what you are saying?
    No, their numbers had an incredibly high death rate, in january I believe it was at 4%, something staggering like that.

    Of course the more people got tested, the more we realized this disease is spread much more than we realized, and so the death rate came down as more people tested positive.



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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

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