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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #1336
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    january 31st is when russia closed its border to china.... they just closed all of their borders a few days ago.... russia is started to get hit really hard and some officials believe they already had plenty of cases early on with a 37 pct rise in phenomena cases in january but just chalked it up to that and not the virus.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/coro...nt-spread.html


    as of january 29th china had confirmed 170 deaths to almost 8k cases... again at the time when compared with the flu this is why countries balked at reacting like they would have if they knew thousands likely already died.
    Last edited by More-Than-Most; 04-08-2020 at 04:06 PM.

  2. #1337
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    I disagree because I understand what an r value is, I've plotted them in graphs before, and so I am saying it depends on what they are getting an r value for. The article never explained what the r value is exactly, it said a measure of casualties but it didnt say what that's being measured against.

    There are definitely scenarios where we would expect an r value of .99. Maybe this china pandemic isnt one of them, but you said an r value of .99 automatically means false and that's not the case.

    Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
    No, I said in this instance an r value of 99 means itís false.

    Once again, statisticians say you are wrong. You are saying you are not wrong because you understand what an r value is. Cool, knowing an r value doesnít make you right, the statistician knows what an r value is too.

    Do you think the statisticians donít understand if the r value were 99 in this instance that the numbers would be plausible?

    Once again, you disagree because you made a stupid point and are too stubborn to ever concede that you are wrong.

    Not out in perspective how stupid your point is: youíve already admitted China lied about their numbers. So youíre saying we should trust a countryís numbers who has literally already lied about their numbers. And somehow that makes sense to you.

  3. #1338
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    No, I said in this instance an r value of 99 means itís false.

    Once again, statisticians say you are wrong. You are saying you are not wrong because you understand what an r value is. Cool, knowing an r value doesnít make you right, the statistician knows what an r value is too.

    Do you think the statisticians donít understand if the r value were 99 in this instance that the numbers would be plausible?

    Once again, you disagree because you made a stupid point and are too stubborn to ever concede that you are wrong.

    Not out in perspective how stupid your point is: youíve already admitted China lied about their numbers. So youíre saying we should trust a countryís numbers who has literally already lied about their numbers. And somehow that makes sense to you.

  4. #1339
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  5. #1340
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    No, their numbers had an incredibly high death rate, in january I believe it was at 4%, something staggering like that.

    Of course the more people got tested, the more we realized this disease is spread much more than we realized, and so the death rate came down as more people tested positive.



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    The number of deaths they have reported for a country their size and being the country of origin for this virus are minuscule.

  6. #1341
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    Weíre talking about a NEW virus here. So there is no previous data to fall back on other than what happens now.

    Weíre also talking about something that grows exponentially because itís highly contagious. China didnít include asymptomatic cases in their counts so no one had an idea of the transmission rate of this until they saw it in their own/other countries.

    Unfortunately, thereís a lag in that data because symptoms are delayed. It takes a few days. And then another few days for those people to realize they need to seek help. And then because testing for a new disease was limited another few days for results. But on the meantime the virus continues to be spread at a high rate.

    Thatís why as weíre doing these measures we still see counts rising. Todayís cases and deaths are the results of what was happening a week or two ago.

    I blame our government and other governments for not being quicker on the testing. Even when China was lying it was still anew disease and I think more work should have been put in to prepare tests and at least some level of planning. I donít think itís reasonable to expect that planning could have covered the magnitude of this.

    The biggest driver of this global pandemic is the weeks behind it everyone is because of the heinous acts of China though. There arenít words to describe what a despicable thing theyíve done. So much blood on their hands.


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  7. #1342
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    No, I said in this instance an r value of 99 means itís false.

    Once again, statisticians say you are wrong. You are saying you are not wrong because you understand what an r value is. Cool, knowing an r value doesnít make you right, the statistician knows what an r value is too.

    Do you think the statisticians donít understand if the r value were 99 in this instance that the numbers would be plausible?

    Once again, you disagree because you made a stupid point and are too stubborn to ever concede that you are wrong.

    Not out in perspective how stupid your point is: youíve already admitted China lied about their numbers. So youíre saying we should trust a countryís numbers who has literally already lied about their numbers. And somehow that makes sense to you.
    On, earlier you didnt clarify you meant in this instance and then followed it up with a coin flip example which didnt illustrate your point well at all. Thats why I replied as such.

    No, I dont disagree, as far as saying that the numbers from china were too accurate is a fair point. I think it only means so much at face value, I think you're giving it a lot more credence than necessary because it falls in line with a narrative. But it's a legitimate criticism. Time will make things even clearer.

    I cant speak to it in any detail since I dont know what two variables they are using for their r value, none of us can without knowing that..

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  8. #1343
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post

    Not out in perspective how stupid your point is: youíve already admitted China lied about their numbers. So youíre saying we should trust a countryís numbers who has literally already lied about their numbers. And somehow that makes sense to you.
    I said china tried to cover this up in the beginning. Once it got out of their control they pretty much sounded the alarm to the world that theres a contagious disease spreading which they dont know much about.

    Yes they were covering up, but that not out of the ordinary for a government to do. They did what trump did, they downplayed the virus in order to not cause economic ripples, turned out they underestimated the virus. I understand there was dishonesty involved there, but that seems to be somewhat standard for a govt. We ourselves did the same thing.

    So I dont necessarily carry that dishonesty over to after the time they realized they have a global pandemic on our hands. The entire approach changes at that point, including the honesty/dishonesty strategy.

    In order to say they are being dishonest with their numbers, I would have to see something to convince me so. Saying they were too accurate, ok, it's not enough to sell me but I'm def keeping that in mind moving forward

    That's how I see it.

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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  9. #1344
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    The number of deaths they have reported for a country their size and being the country of origin for this virus are minuscule.
    Yes but shouldnt that be expected given their reaction?

    In California we did a soft lockdown on march 17. Doesnt it make sense that this should soon start favorably effecting the numbers?

    China did a hard lockdown on that entire province. So again, them having even better numbers than California would make complete sense.

    And we should expect the same between California and new York. We locked down quicker and harder, so our numbers should be better.

    I don't see anything suspicious about them having a much lower death rate than California, it's what should be expected given the difference in our reactions.

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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  10. #1345
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    In NY itís killing a lot of minorities both blacks and latinos are around 34-35% each.

  11. #1346
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    In NY itís killing a lot of minorities both blacks and latinos are around 34-35% each.
    On average minorities are unhealthier and have crappier jobs. The unheathiness makes them more susceptible to bad outcomes here and those crappy jobs are the ones that now people are able to keep and go in to work which is a positive for them on one hand (they get money) but negative on the other (theyíre out and exposed to the virus).

    I donít think weíre going to address the job profile of America and the health consequences of less wealth in a matter of days, weeks, even years. Thatís going to take generations to ever fully recover from. There are people still alive from when minorities didnít legally have rights. And just changing the law doesnít mean those principles are put into action. From a COVID-19 specific standpoint thereís really nothing we can do.


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  12. #1347
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    Racist *** virus.

  13. #1348
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    Yes but shouldnt that be expected given their reaction?

    In California we did a soft lockdown on march 17. Doesnt it make sense that this should soon start favorably effecting the numbers?

    China did a hard lockdown on that entire province. So again, them having even better numbers than California would make complete sense.

    And we should expect the same between California and new York. We locked down quicker and harder, so our numbers should be better.

    I don't see anything suspicious about them having a much lower death rate than California, it's what should be expected given the difference in our reactions.

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    You've made it very obvious that you don't see anything at all suspicious with China. Try taking the blinders off.

  14. #1349
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    Thanks for the reply

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    RAIDERS, SHARKS, WARRIORS

    "i don't believe in mysteries but still i pray for my sister, when speaking to the higher power that listens, to the lifeless vision of freedom everytime we're imprisoned, to the righteous victims of people of a higher position" - planet asia, old timer thoughts

    "God is Universal he is the Ruler Universal" - gangstarr (rip guru), robbin hood theory

    "don't gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver and gold" - bob marley, zion train

  15. #1350
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastynice View Post
    On, earlier you didnt clarify you meant in this instance and then followed it up with a coin flip example which didnt illustrate your point well at all. Thats why I replied as such.

    No, I dont disagree, as far as saying that the numbers from china were too accurate is a fair point. I think it only means so much at face value, I think you're giving it a lot more credence than necessary because it falls in line with a narrative. But it's a legitimate criticism. Time will make things even clearer.

    I cant speak to it in any detail since I dont know what two variables they are using for their r value, none of us can without knowing that..
    To the contrary, I think the only reason youíre dismissing this is because it directly contradicts your beliefs.

    The biggest irony is you are defending and denying China is covering up something by using the same tactics China used to cover this up, and the irony is lost to you.

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