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  1. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    We found out last year in ST that Dom, like FoC, suffers from severe sleep apnea. Once Dom got hooked up to a CPAP machine and started getting a decent night's sleep, the lethargy disappeared and we started to see the real Dom Smith.

    The problem was never an affinity for all-you-can-eat buffets but rather a serious, life-threatening disease that is now being treated.

    You're welcome.
    Thanks


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    If Trump can become president with no political background then I don't understand why I need a resumť

  2. #212
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    2020 Mets Spring Training - The Mets Way

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeGamer81 View Post
    According to BR, they and Fangraphs agreed that the replacement level wins are 48. Using BR's WAR totals from 2019, the Mets and Nats actuals and WARs were dead-accurate, but the Phillies (75) were well off, and the Braves weren't even close.

    Expanding further, the Yankees (97) and Astros (115) were both significantly off. Point being, this is not even remotely an exact science. So we don't need to pretend that losing replacing Rendon's 7 with someone else's 2 was absolutely going to result in 5 fewer wins, because it doesn't work like that.

    And projections are worth ****-all. So I don't want to hear that we should be the favorites to win the division. It's not going to happen without heroic improvements from a few players.
    That was from 2013, this was from 2016:

    https://community.fangraphs.com/usin...team-position/

    So 46.5 seems to be more accurate. And the way I calculate win totals is by using fWAR and RA9-WAR for pitchers since those are actual results while fWAR for pitchers uses FIP which arenít actual results.

    Iíll follow this criteria for every team with at least 84 wins last year in each division and explain discrepancies (if 2 wins or more) using leverage and how teams performed in the clutch with WPA (Wins Probability Added):

    AL East

    Yankees: 98 wins (103 actual) - pitching was clutch
    Rays 94 wins (96 actual) - hitting slightly not clutch
    Red Sox 88 wins (84 actual) - hitting not clutch

    AL Central

    Twins: 97 wins (101 actual) - pitching was clutch
    Indians: 94 wins (93 actual)

    AL West

    Astros: 117 wins (107 actual) - hitting not clutch
    Athletics: 100 wins (97 actual) - pitching not clutch

    NL East

    Braves: 90 wins (97 actual) - pitching was clutch
    Nationals: 95 wins (93 actual) - pitching not clutch
    Mets: 86 wins (86 wins)

    NL Central

    Cardinals: 92 wins (91 actual)
    Brewers: 85 wins (89 actual) - pitching was clutch
    Cubs: 91 wins (84 actual) - hitting and bullpen were not clutch

    NL West

    Dodgers: 107 wins (106 actual)
    DBacks: 88 wins (85 actual) - hitting not clutch

    Average wins: 94.8 (94.1 actual)

    So it appears this WAR method is pretty dead-on overall here, and by going through each team, you can mostly explain why their WAR differed from their actual win total. But those discrepancies have no predictive value, which is why they canít be used in projections. The only team that skewed this a bit was the Astros, but my theory is that once you have a certain amount of wins, itís hard to break that barrier. Winning 2/3 series for the season is a 108-54 record. The Astros had a bad month in June 15-12.

    The point is, it might not be an exact science, but itís the best we have. If you donít think replacing Rendon with a 2 WAR player nets the Nationals significantly less wins last year, then I really donít know what to tell you. It might not be exactly 5 wins of course.
    Last edited by YoungStuna; 02-18-2020 at 01:26 PM.

  3. #213
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    https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/b...mqq-story.html

    #swagger


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  4. #214
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    2020 Mets Spring Training - The Mets Way

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeGamer81 View Post
    This is pure fantasy. Who says Cespedes is healthy this year? Who says Nimmo stays healthy? Betances?

    There are going to be plenty of injuries to go around. Depth is a little better, but not much. We still have terrible defense. You're way too optimistic.
    Cespedes isnít going to play at all this year?

    Nimmo and Betances might not stay healthy, but the team will be better all-around to cover them while they are out. Marisnick is a great defensive CF who is a major upgrade over Lagares/Broxton/Altherr/Gomez who were all trash last season. The bullpen even without Betances still looks solid. Betances is the arm that can put the bullpen over the top.

    Our defense is below average, but this team rakes to make up for him. Youíre way too pessimistic, especially when the numbers donít back you up.
    Last edited by YoungStuna; 02-18-2020 at 02:32 PM.

  5. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zmaster52 View Post
    https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/b...mqq-story.html

    #swagger


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  6. #216
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    2020 Mets Spring Training - The Mets Way

    Quote Originally Posted by Claymation View Post
    The Nats are going to bring up their Top 20 prospect in Kieboom to play in the infield this year. They also signed Thames to play 1st. They also have the best rotation in baseball.

    The Braves picked up Hamels, I wouldn't say their rotation looks awful. Not as good as the Mets, but the Mets lost their 2nd best pitcher from last year and replaced him with below average starter.

    At least the Mets have Betances, because if Diaz under performs again they can turn to him and have Lugo as a set up.
    Still, they could have had Kieboom play 2B with Rendon at 3B. Then they would have been favorites to win the division. Kieboom didnít do much last year, lets see what he does this year. Heís not going to come close to Rendonís production either way. Their bullpen still looks suspect and Scherzer is getting old. He had some injuries last season. Not a slam dunk that their rotation is best in baseball this season, but that is definitely their strength.

    Hamels is 36, already injured and has a ton of milage on his arm. Heís nearing the end of his career. I think Soroka will come back to earth. Heís a good pitcher, but I wouldnít call him an ace. His first 8 starts were incredible, but then heís settled into more of a #2/3 guy. I think losing Donaldson will hurt him as he was in the 94th percentile in OAA (Outs Above Average) at 3B and Soroka was a GB guy.

    No matter how many times you say it, Wheeler was not replaced by Porcello. He was replaced by Stroman at the deadline. Porcello replaces 2 months of Stroman and Vargas while Matz is the 5th starter. Wacha provides SP depth and potential value in the pen with his mid-90s fastball/change combo.
    Last edited by YoungStuna; 02-18-2020 at 02:33 PM.

  7. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by AUDIT View Post
    Interesting.

    Remember Bill James Pythagorean theorem? I just did a calculation of the Braves runs scored and runs allowed. According to that calculation their record should have been 91-71. I guess they won a lot of close games.

    Is there a pattern here....WAR, Pythagorean, Pecota, Fangraphs, et al. I wonder. BTW, using the Pythagorean for the Mets was 86-76, their exact record last season.
    Yep the Braves were very clutch in 2019. Clutch is not consistent from season to season.

  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeGamer81 View Post
    This is pure fantasy. Who says Cespedes is healthy this year? Who says Nimmo stays healthy? Betances?

    There are going to be plenty of injuries to go around. Depth is a little better, but not much. We still have terrible defense. You're way too optimistic.
    Yep.

    Nimmo and Conforto again in center? Really? Cano on second? Ramos back behind the plate? So much for up the middle.

    Anything you get out of Cespedes will be gravy. Betances and the rest of the bullpen is a crapshoot. Then again, it's kind of why they play the games, isn't it?
    "Ain't got the call no more. Got a lot of sinful idears Ė but they seem kinda sensible...."

  9. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    Cespedes isnít going to play at all this year?

    Nimmo and Betances might not stay healthy, but the team will be better all-around to cover them while they are out. Marisnick is a great defensive CF who is a major upgrade over Lagares/Broxton/Altherr/Gomez who were all trash last season. The bullpen even without Betances still looks solid. Betances is the arm that can put the bullpen over the top.

    Our defense is below average, but this team rakes to make up for him. Youíre way too pessimistic, especially when the numbers donít back you up.
    The OF will primarily be manned by Davis, Nimmo, Conforto, and maybe even Cespedes. How many ABs do you see Marisnick getting?
    "Ain't got the call no more. Got a lot of sinful idears Ė but they seem kinda sensible...."

  10. #220
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zmaster52 View Post
    Thanks


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    My pleasure always.
    "Ain't got the call no more. Got a lot of sinful idears Ė but they seem kinda sensible...."

  11. #221
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    2020 Mets Spring Training - The Mets Way

    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    The OF will primarily be manned by Davis, Nimmo, Conforto, and maybe even Cespedes. How many ABs do you see Marisnick getting?
    Marisnick is pretty much a lock to start in CF vs. LHP. Heís basically going to be used like Lagares was, I would assume. Problem was that Lagares was so bad offensively and much more average defensively than what weíre used to seeing from him. I would figure around 250 PA for Marisnick.

  12. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    We found out last year in ST that Dom, like FoC, suffers from severe sleep apnea. Once Dom got hooked up to a CPAP machine and started getting a decent night's sleep, the lethargy disappeared and we started to see the real Dom Smith.

    The problem was never an affinity for all-you-can-eat buffets but rather a serious, life-threatening disease that is now being treated.

    You're welcome.
    Didn't know that. Thanks for the info.
    "There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. A high powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die."

  13. #223
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  14. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    That was from 2013, this was from 2016:

    https://community.fangraphs.com/usin...team-position/

    So 46.5 seems to be more accurate. And the way I calculate win totals is by using fWAR and RA9-WAR for pitchers since those are actual results while fWAR for pitchers uses FIP which arenít actual results.

    Iíll follow this criteria for every team with at least 84 wins last year in each division and explain discrepancies (if 2 wins or more) using leverage and how teams performed in the clutch with WPA (Wins Probability Added):

    AL East

    Yankees: 98 wins (103 actual) - pitching was clutch
    Rays 94 wins (96 actual) - hitting slightly not clutch
    Red Sox 88 wins (84 actual) - hitting not clutch

    AL Central

    Twins: 97 wins (101 actual) - pitching was clutch
    Indians: 94 wins (93 actual)

    AL West

    Astros: 117 wins (107 actual) - hitting not clutch
    Athletics: 100 wins (97 actual) - pitching not clutch

    NL East

    Braves: 90 wins (97 actual) - pitching was clutch
    Nationals: 95 wins (93 actual) - pitching not clutch
    Mets: 86 wins (86 wins)

    NL Central

    Cardinals: 92 wins (91 actual)
    Brewers: 85 wins (89 actual) - pitching was clutch
    Cubs: 91 wins (84 actual) - hitting and bullpen were not clutch

    NL West

    Dodgers: 107 wins (106 actual)
    DBacks: 88 wins (85 actual) - hitting not clutch

    Average wins: 94.8 (94.1 actual)

    So it appears this WAR method is pretty dead-on overall here, and by going through each team, you can mostly explain why their WAR differed from their actual win total. But those discrepancies have no predictive value, which is why they canít be used in projections. The only team that skewed this a bit was the Astros, but my theory is that once you have a certain amount of wins, itís hard to break that barrier. Winning 2/3 series for the season is a 108-54 record. The Astros had a bad month in June 15-12.

    The point is, it might not be an exact science, but itís the best we have. If you donít think replacing Rendon with a 2 WAR player nets the Nationals significantly less wins last year, then I really donít know what to tell you. It might not be exactly 5 wins of course.
    So it's accurate on average, but individually there's plenty of room for error. Meaning you can't even look back with total clarity, let alone look ahead. And for all the excuses you're making for why teams were better or worse than their WAR totals, you're assuming that the Mets will be in a Goldilocks zone of production and outcome this year, while everyone else will fail across the board. It's ridiculous fanboyism. And while there's no better time for ridiculous fanboyism than pre-Spring Training, it's pretty obnoxious when we're discussing reality.

    Whether Cespedes plays at all this year is up in the air. We just don't know. You, meanwhile, cited his abilty to play part-time all year as a reason for why we're better than last year. Which is a problem because, as I said, we don't even know if he's going to be available at all, let alone all year, or if he'll be productive if and when he is.

    We also don't know what Nimmo's deal is. Last year people were bringing up David Wright when talking about the neck injury, which I shouldn't have to tell you is a bad ****ing sign. I don't know if he has stenosis or arthritis in his cervical spine, but if he does, his ability to stay on the field will be severely impacted.

    We don't know what Diaz will bring, if anything. We don't know if Betances can stay healthy or if his best is behind him. We don't know what Thor is gonna do, or Stroman, or Wacha and Porcello. We don't even know if Jake is going to totally dominate like has the past two years. Nothing is certain, and we didn't do enough this offseason to improve the team. Some of the teams around us got worse, but not enough to crown us. The only reason we were even in the race late was because of the cakewalk schedule we had after the deadline.

  15. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by Il Mostro View Post
    Didn't know that. Thanks for the info.
    My pleasure.

    I too was a fierce critic of Dom heading into last season. Then, when i heard about his sleep apnea and saw the difference in his play once he was diagnosed and treated, I became his biggest fan. This coming August will mark 23 three years since I first started using a CPAP -- Continual Positive Airway Pressure -- machine to sleep comfortably through the night. To say I can relate to what Dom must have been going through prior is a gross understatement.
    "Ain't got the call no more. Got a lot of sinful idears Ė but they seem kinda sensible...."

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