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  1. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawn2timer View Post
    Randle is signed long term. So which vets are we complaining about? Just Payton. Never mind that they are both young as well. For anyone to suggest that Dennis should play more, let alone start, I just can't come away with any conclusion that people are simply not watching the games. He is god awful.

    People are just freaking out over our first 3 game win streak in what a decade haha. They were three really bad teams. We are going to finish with a bottom 5 record. I don't even get what all the panic is about. Does anyone think these guys are going to get 25 wins?
    Have you seen our next three opponents?

    Letís say we win 2 of the next 3. So 5-1 in the last 6 games heading into the ASB.

    What does management do then? Should we go for it, try to make the 8th seed and play our vets as much as necessary, or do we focus on the young guys? I think in this scenario, the answer is the former.

    So we end up somewhere in the 8-9 range in the lotto. We can grab another Frank/DSJ/Knox level prospect, unless we get incredibly lucky and win the lottery. Then we consider bringing back the vets, even though we were not even close to a playoff team with them playing big minutes. And we have Frank, Knox, DSJ, Iggy, Peters, Wooten, and to a lesser extent Mitch, who havenít really progressed all that much, if at all.

    How is this helpful to the future of the Knicks?

  2. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubba313 View Post
    It did work out last summer. We ended up with the worst record, gave ourselves the best floor possible, and ended up with the 3rd pick in a 3-player draft. How is that a failure? We played the odds and largely succeeded.

    What you want do is say forget the odds, and hope we hit the lottery. All so we can play guys who have no future here in the first place.

    And no I wonít apologize if an all star comes from outside the top 5 or 10 because my point is that, on balance, better players are drafted at the top of the draft. Itís simple math.
    No it did not work out. We missed both top prizes. And were spurned by every legit player cuz we reek of perennial losing. The best basketball player in the game was available and he went across town to a team that all they did differently was try to win. If you want to talk yourself into saying that worked out, power to you.

    And as to the bold, as a finance/math major, you'll never hear me say that lol. I think we feel differently about the spread. 25 vs 9%. You have my attention. With the current system, it does not pay to prioritize being the worst possible version of yourself. And one years of lottery results already proves my point. I think Silver absolutely took a big step to solving the tanking problem with this change. I agree with Smood that it has the potential of keeping bad teams bad longer. Such is the life of a Knicks fan. The rule change came at literally the worst possible time.

  3. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawn2timer View Post
    Randle is signed long term. So which vets are we complaining about? Just Payton. Never mind that they are both young as well. For anyone to suggest that Dennis should play more, let alone start, I just can't come away with any conclusion that people are simply not watching the games. He is god awful.

    People are just freaking out over our first 3 game win streak in what a decade haha. They were three really bad teams. We are going to finish with a bottom 5 record. I don't even get what all the panic is about. Does anyone think these guys are going to get 25 wins?
    The next day after games we get blown out what are all the posts about? The problem is they went from saying how bad Payton is to now oh sh it, he's playing really good we need to play the young guys?

    He's 25 years old.......he's locked up next year......he seems to be a piece of the future, and I'm good with that and want him to keep getting better. How many players can you name last year that had 5 triple doubles in a row?

    He gets 9 assists here yet we are the worst shooting team in the league, if we get some shooters he will be even more valuable, this guy has some smart BB IQ, he finishes extremely well, and I mean extremely well, and he plays defense, not reputation defense, he plays defense.

    I'm good and if someone can work on his shot, damn.........Funny how another post when discussing Frank brought up Rondo how he got his shot up to 35-36-37 percent after turning 28?

    So it's good when we want an example for Frank but it don't work for Payton who shoots much better at 25 then Rondo did? Come on you can't pick and choose your examples......He's 25 like Rondo and others he can improve and he has nice form......he gets a little more arc watch out.
    All payton needs with his ability to get in the paint is to shoot 34-35% from three and he may be all star material, and I didn't say all star.

  4. #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawn2timer View Post
    Why top 5? Why not top 7 or top 8. And without even looking I know you're wrong. KP Barrett and Ewing is three haha. If you extend your arbitrary cutoff its more, Gallo @ 6, Nene at 7, Frye @ 8, Frank @ 8.

    And no I don't see an issue with that. What sucks is not having the picks at all, the years where we were bad and didn't have a draft pick. That was bad. Some picks were busts. But there's no guarantee we would've made the right one with a higher number. Look no further than the KP draft. A higher pick would've landed us Okafor. Yes even at 8 we coud've had the best player in the Frank draft. Mitchell. Or pretty much every player taken after Knox in the first round. You're going to say you're less likely to bust up top, I dont disagree. But there is a tradeoff. Half the guys taken before him are purely average

    And stop going so far back. Who are the teams that have been in the top of the lottery the most in the last 20 years? Minny, Phoenix, Cleveland, Philly. Lets talk about them.

    And here's the bit that we can't agree on. Having the worst record and guarantee to draft top 5 to me is not worth it to incentivize losing the degree you want to. We are already doing it. Especially with the new lottery rules. So yes we need to keep talking about them. Because in years prior this strategy made more sense. And even then you have yet to give us an example of which team has gone out of their way to prioritize losing over and over to have it work out for them.
    Top 5 because that's where the majority of the best players come from. Clearly when I said since the 80's, I was referring to after Ewing and Kenny Walker. Since then, they have only been in the top 5 twice.

    Extend it to seven if you want and it's still only three times (they didn't make the Nene pick). Obviously the point here is that the Knicks keep picking in ranges that don't typically produce the best players. They haven't had luck in free agency or via trades and they haven't put themselves in a position to capitalize on the draft. Something here needs to change or else they will never be successful.

    I'm sure you understand probability. The chances of drafting an All Star in the top 5 is about the same as just finding a starter in the rest of the lottery. Something like 75% of players drafted number 1 overall have been All Stars. These numbers don't lie. The drop off from early lottery to mid lottery to the rest of the draft is steep.

    Sure the Knicks could've drafted Mitchell at 8 instead of drafting Frank, but they could've also been in the top 5 with a chance at Tatum or Fox. Again, ranges. Those are two absolute studs within the top 5. How many were chosen 6-60? 40% hit rate within the top 5 vs. 3% in the next 55 picks (Bam and Mitchell)...again, why is this even a discussion. The results are there for everyone to look at.

    Don't know why you're bringing up the KP draft since the Knicks clearly would've had the top pick if they didn't inexplicably win 3/5 games to close the season. Regardless, looking at the top 5 range. That draft produced Towns, Russell, and KP in the top 5. Three out of five. What do the next 55 picks look like in comparison?

    How about 2009? Knicks again win meaningless games and it cost them their target (Curry). Even the 2008 draft could serve as an example. They had their hearts set on Westbrook. Unfortunately, they didn't pick high enough.

    You're focusing on the misses without acknowledging that they happen a lot more often in the ranges that the Knicks pick in and that they have to at least be in a position to get those players to actually miss. Passing on [insert top player here] is different than not even being able to draft them.

    Things are clearly different now with players teaming up via free agency. If that isn't happening for a franchise, then the draft needs to be prioritized.

    In terms of success - Lakers, Philly, OKC, Dallas, and Warriors.

    OKC - Harden, Green, Westbrook, and Durant. Four consecutive top 5 picks and they nailed three. They just turned the page on that completely but were able to stay afloat because these guys were major assets.

    People tend to forget how bad and how often the Warriors were picking high in the lottery before they finally hit on their picks. They didn't start winning immediately after drafting Curry. They actually tore it down and built around him.

    Philly is far from a failure. They were arguably a buzzer beater away from being the champions last year. Even if you think they have to break up Simmons and Embiid, that's fine. They are probably two of the most valuable pieces in the league. This isn't all about drafting the players and winning with them.

    Dallas - Doncic

    The Lakers don't get AD and LeBron without picking 7, 2, 2, and 2 in consecutive years.

    Boston didn't do it themselves, but where are they now without the Tatum and Brown (both Nets picks and #3 overall)?
    Last edited by smood999; 02-07-2020 at 04:52 PM.

  5. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubba313 View Post
    Have you seen our next three opponents?

    Letís say we win 2 of the next 3. So 5-1 in the last 6 games heading into the ASB.

    What does management do then? Should we go for it, try to make the 8th seed and play our vets as much as necessary, or do we focus on the young guys? I think in this scenario, the answer is the former.

    So we end up somewhere in the 8-9 range in the lotto. We can grab another Frank/DSJ/Knox level prospect, unless we get incredibly lucky and win the lottery. Then we consider bringing back the vets, even though we were not even close to a playoff team with them playing big minutes. And we have Frank, Knox, DSJ, Iggy, Peters, Wooten, and to a lesser extent Mitch, who havenít really progressed all that much, if at all.

    How is this helpful to the future of the Knicks?
    I dont know why you're projecting so many wins haha. You are not going to get the 8th seed imo, take that to the bank, so rest easy there. We suck really bad, even Detroit is a toss up. Atl we probably lose to. Even the game last night was like 75% ugly.

    But if you play Dennis over Payton, which I can't even understand what else you guys are suggesting. What does that do for our future. I think DSjr is trash and should not be part of any future. I like Payton as a backup. So you don't have me there.

    What does management do? If they try to tell their interim coach to throw games, they are in for a rude awakening. Both the Hawks and Cavs got better while we traded away our best player. Minny also got better, same record as us I think. Everyone behind or next us got better, and we got worse. Why are you do worried?

    We got 30 games left. If they win 10 I'll be shocked. And by March, don't worry Randle will get a "season ending injury".

  6. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawn2timer View Post
    I dont know why you're projecting so many wins haha. You are not going to get the 8th seed imo, take that to the bank, so rest easy there. We suck really bad, even Detroit is a toss up. Atl we probably lose to. Even the game last night was like 75% ugly.

    But if you play Dennis over Payton, which I can't even understand what else you guys are suggesting. What does that do for our future. I think DSjr is trash and should not be part of any future. I like Payton as a backup. So you don't have me there.

    What does management do? If they try to tell their interim coach to throw games, they are in for a rude awakening. Both the Hawks and Cavs got better while we traded away our best player. Minny also got better, same record as us I think. Everyone behind or next us got better, and we got worse. Why are you do worried?

    We got 30 games left. If they win 10 I'll be shocked. And by March, don't worry Randle will get a "season ending injury".
    Iím not projecting many wins or an 8th seed.

    Iím saying weíve won 3 in a row. And we play Detroit, Atlanta and Washington before the ASB. Weíre already at the 5 slot in the lotto.

    Mike Miller is 12-18 as our coach. 40% win rate.

    You just take this all to its logical conclusion, weíre not going to end up anywhere near the bottom slots of the lottery unless we start actively tanking. But if we win our next three games, I seriously doubt that happens.

    Then, our only hope is winning the lottery or praying we draft a good player in the mid-to-late lottery.

  7. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubba313 View Post
    Iím not projecting many wins or an 8th seed.

    Iím saying weíve won 3 in a row. And we play Detroit, Atlanta and Washington before the ASB. Weíre already at the 5 slot in the lotto.

    Mike Miller is 12-18 as our coach. 40% win rate.

    You just take this all to its logical conclusion, weíre not going to end up anywhere near the bottom slots of the lottery unless we start actively tanking. But if we win our next three games, I seriously doubt that happens.

    Then, our only hope is winning the lottery or praying we draft a good player in the mid-to-late lottery.
    We need to pick Top 4 in this draft or we get shart.

    1 of the 3 guards or Wiseman.

  8. #173
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    I am not sure what u guys are arguing about. The odds are greater of getting a top player when you have the worse record. There are outliers but the real issue is do you see Randle and Payton as key pieces moving forward. If you do you play them. If you see the draft picks as the future you play them and get veterans to help them along not players to take their job. I guess if u have faith in none of the players you can play the vets and try and front like your are building something but the players can see through that. You have a young Memphis team come into our building and run our vets by 20 plus points the Knicks are not fooling anyone by winning 25 games with older players that have been in the league 5-6 years the top players know that is garbage. Just like the Knicks were not fooling anyone when they hired Fiz and yelled at the top of their lungs culture change. The problem with the Knicks is they are always trying to front for the purpose of alluring FA instead of doing **** the right way because that actually takes time and good people in all facets of the organization.

  9. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by still a fan View Post
    The next day after games we get blown out what are all the posts about? The problem is they went from saying how bad Payton is to now oh sh it, he's playing really good we need to play the young guys?

    He's 25 years old.......he's locked up next year......he seems to be a piece of the future, and I'm good with that and want him to keep getting better. How many players can you name last year that had 5 triple doubles in a row?

    He gets 9 assists here yet we are the worst shooting team in the league, if we get some shooters he will be even more valuable, this guy has some smart BB IQ, he finishes extremely well, and I mean extremely well, and he plays defense, not reputation defense, he plays defense.

    I'm good and if someone can work on his shot, damn.........Funny how another post when discussing Frank brought up Rondo how he got his shot up to 35-36-37 percent after turning 28?

    So it's good when we want an example for Frank but it don't work for Payton who shoots much better at 25 then Rondo did? Come on you can't pick and choose your examples......He's 25 like Rondo and others he can improve and he has nice form......he gets a little more arc watch out.
    All payton needs with his ability to get in the paint is to shoot 34-35% from three and he may be all star material, and I didn't say all star.
    Payton came off a triple double and they were looking to trade him. That was how much they believed in him.

  10. #175
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnicksFan4Years View Post
    You are wrong Stuna, I want the players to succeed.
    If we are winning and improving with Payton then I am rolling with him.

    Winning is the goal.

    Talent and potential alone do not win. Again you guys have to get away from the Powerball mentality!!!

    Minny had how many top 10 picks?

    How many did Dallas get before turning it around?

    Miami?

    Lakers?

    Look at the Jazz, they have just been getting best players and picks along the way and have built a very good squad that just keeps winning.

    Only winning leads to winning.
    I thought winning a championship is the goal? Were you happy with just ďwinningĒ with Melo?

    How many Top 10 picks did Minnesota have? 3 in the last 5 years (Towns, Dunn, and Markkenen). They used Dunn and Markkenen as well as Levine to get Jimmy Butler.

    That move worked, but then Jimmy wanted out of Minnesota which ****ed up their plans. So then they were screwed and right back to square one.

    Minnesota has made questionable decisions and their scouting overall hasnít been very good. But itís obvious theyíve had some bad luck too.

    Dallas took advantage of the Knicks incompetence and stole KP and a solid role player in THJ from us.

    2018 they had a Top 5 pick and moved up to grab Doncic who they felt was going to be a star.

    Miami is a popular location for tax purposes, great weather/beaches, and thus they always a popular destination for FAs. Thatís how they got Jimmy.

    Same thing with the Lakers. LeBron wanted Hollywood and to be apart of the Lakers and create a new Lakers dynasty with AD now in the mix.

    Jazz are very well run, but they had two great players with Gobert and Heyward and good role players even when Heyward left. He was replaced by Mitchell essentially. Theyíve scouted pretty well. But are they championship caliber? Hell no.

  11. #176
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    All this back and forth..

    I donít think itís debatable. Top 5 picks mean everything. I donít remember the exact specifics, but last time we were going through this, we all came up with a list of real #1 guys we agreed on over the last 30 years, I want to say something like 70% of them came within that top 5, higher up the better the chance.

    And regardless of where you fall on whether a winning, but not championship team, is good..
    You canít get to one without first being the other

  12. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by smood999 View Post
    Top 5 because that's where the majority of the best players come from. Clearly when I said since the 80's, I was referring to after Ewing and Kenny Walker. Since then, they have only been in the top 5 twice.

    Extend it to seven if you want and it's still only three times (they didn't make the Nene pick). Obviously the point here is that the Knicks keep picking in ranges that don't typically produce the best players. They haven't had luck in free agency or via trades and they haven't put themselves in a position to capitalize on the draft. Something here needs to change or else they will never be successful.

    I'm sure you understand probability. The chances of drafting an All Star in the top 5 is about the same as just finding a starter in the rest of the lottery. Something like 75% of players drafted number 1 overall have been All Stars. These numbers don't lie. The drop off from early lottery to mid lottery to the rest of the draft is steep.

    Sure the Knicks could've drafted Mitchell at 8 instead of drafting Frank, but they could've also been in the top 5 with a chance at Tatum or Fox. Again, ranges. Those are two absolute studs within the top 5. How many were chosen 6-60? 40% hit rate within the top 5 vs. 3% in the next 55 picks (Bam and Mitchell)...again, why is this even a discussion. The results are there for everyone to look at.

    Don't know why you're bringing up the KP draft since the Knicks clearly would've had the top pick if they didn't inexplicably win 3/5 games to close the season. Regardless, looking at the top 5 range. That draft produced Towns, Russell, and KP in the top 5. Three out of five. What do the next 55 picks look like in comparison?

    How about 2009? Knicks again win meaningless games and it cost them their target (Curry). Even the 2008 draft could serve as an example. They had their hearts set on Westbrook. Unfortunately, they didn't pick high enough.

    You're focusing on the misses without acknowledging that they happen a lot more often in the ranges that the Knicks pick in and that they have to at least be in a position to get those players to actually miss. Passing on [insert top player here] is different than not even being able to draft them.

    Things are clearly different now with players teaming up via free agency. If that isn't happening for a franchise, then the draft needs to be prioritized.

    In terms of success - Lakers, Philly, OKC, Dallas, and Warriors.

    OKC - Harden, Green, Westbrook, and Durant. Four consecutive top 5 picks and they nailed three. They just turned the page on that completely but were able to stay afloat because these guys were major assets.

    People tend to forget how bad and how often the Warriors were picking high in the lottery before they finally hit on their picks. They didn't start winning immediately after drafting Curry. They actually tore it down and built around him.

    Philly is far from a failure. They were arguably a buzzer beater away from being the champions last year. Even if you think they have to break up Simmons and Embiid, that's fine. They are probably two of the most valuable pieces in the league. This isn't all about drafting the players and winning with them.

    Dallas - Doncic

    The Lakers don't get AD and LeBron without picking 7, 2, 2, and 2 in consecutive years.

    Boston didn't do it themselves, but where are they now without the Tatum and Brown (both Nets picks and #3 overall)?
    So they would've just beaten the Buck in the confis and the Warriors in finals. Not sure what they've done to inspire that confidence. 20 years and they haven't cleared the second round, same as us.

    OKC didn't work either. Even if you get the timing right so much else needs to go your way.

    Lakers have never tried to tank. It's not something you'll ever hear a Lakers fan say. They are winners, even when they are losers.

    Dallas? lol come on they had the 5th pick, and they made a good trade. Haven't we already done that.

    I'll finish with this - Every time we have this conversation you guys end up making it about how it better to pick in the top 5 vs the top 10. Well yea, of course it is. What we fundamentally disagree on is what you need to get there. Frankly speaking we're finishing bottom 5 irrespective of whatever combination of these guys we throw out there. It's moot.

  13. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by cssdmark View Post
    Payton came off a triple double and they were looking to trade him. That was how much they believed in him.
    They were looking to trade everyone. And yeah so what's wrong with that. Hoping someone watched that game and came away impressed. Hell isn't that how we ended up with Smith lol.

    Anyways a full Friday wasted. Have a great weekend fellas.

  14. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawn2timer View Post
    So they would've just beaten the Buck in the confis and the Warriors in finals. Not sure what they've done to inspire that confidence. 20 years and they haven't cleared the second round, same as us.

    OKC didn't work either. Even if you get the timing right so much else needs to go your way.

    Lakers have never tried to tank. It's not something you'll ever hear a Lakers fan say. They are winners, even when they are losers.

    Dallas? lol come on they had the 5th pick, and they made a good trade. Haven't we already done that.

    I'll finish with this - Every time we have this conversation you guys end up making it about how it better to pick in the top 5 vs the top 10. Well yea, of course it is. What we fundamentally disagree on is what you need to get there. Frankly speaking we're finishing bottom 5 irrespective of whatever combination of these guys we throw out there. It's moot.
    How did OKC not work? Theyíve been one of the top teams in the league for a decade and had a Finals appearance.

    The Lakers picking 2nd three years in a row, after picking 7th, while shutting their vets down early each season wasnít tanking? I mean Magic Johnson even guaranteed they wouldnít lose their top 3 protected pick one year. He definitely didnít make that statement while trying to win.

    Dallas picked 5th after Cuban openly admitted to tanking and was fined for it. He didnít waste his time with vets and he admitted he spoke to the team and the coaching staff about it. Thereís no need to do it again a father getting Luka.

    Itís not moot. Thereís a major difference between being guaranteed a top 5 pick and having the possibility of dropping to 8 or 9. Thatís exactly what happened to the 5th worst team last year.
    Last edited by smood999; 02-07-2020 at 06:57 PM.

  15. #180
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    One situation can potentially reward a team.

    The other at best does nothing either way.

    Both can be harmful.

    So do you want the harm with the potential reward or the harm with no potential benefit?

    Easy choice

    We do this every year just to watch those same players in different uniforms the following season. How many times do you need to see it before you get it?

    A meaningless win can impact a meaningful draft. Just those two adjectives alone tell the story.
    Last edited by smood999; 02-07-2020 at 07:03 PM.

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