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Thread: HOF impact

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by mightybosstone View Post
    So you're just repeating what I'm saying? I don't get your shtick, dude...
    Don't waste your time trying.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    Yes, really. I doubt this system turned poor or average hitters in to great ones. Not to mention that by the time these guys are HOF eligible, the amount of plate appearances affected by this scheme will be a drop in the bucket next to the rest of their career.
    I don't know how big of a bucket you are anticipating if someone like Bregman's 2000 AB's could be a drop. Unless you are satisfied with assuming that everything was on the up and up before the period they were nailed for, and after. That's totally fine, but I dont think I would be the only one who thinks perpetrators of such egregious cheating don't deserve the benefit of the doubt.

    I'm not saying I would disregard everything guys like Altuve and Bregman have done. But I would say that if they end up in HOF discussions primarily for what they did as Astros I would not vote them in if I had a vote. Everyone on that team would be in a show me that it wasnt cheating sort of mode from here on in. If they perform up to this level going forward, they get a lot of credibility back. If their careers are good to very good from here on out but the strength of their case comes from this period in Houston that would be sorry but no for me.

    And for the record I am perfectly fine leaving anyone out of the hof that was guilty of PED use for the exact same reason. I dont care if you tested positive at age 35, being caught cheating casts doubt with me.

    I dont think something like this turns average hitters into great ones, no. Just as I dont believe steroids did. But it definitely could make really good players into HOF candidates, and I think based on the elaborate scheming they engaged in they knew it was a big advantage as well.



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    Last edited by Jamiecballer; 01-18-2020 at 08:56 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  3. #18
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    No one is elected to the Hall of Fame based off a couple seasons of strong work. Not to mention that none of the Astros accrued 2000 AB's (let alone home AB's) from the beginning of 2017 to some point in the 2018 seasons. Even if we're going to say they cheated every single AB of every single home game for all of the 2017-2018 seasons, the most home AB's any one player got during this period was Altuve with 561. Looking in to the stats a bit, we can see that Altuve hit for a 126 wRC+ at home and 169 wRC+(!) on the road during this period. Doesn't really jive with the narrative so many are pushing.

    There are certainly some players that did hit better at home during this period but none of the splits look especially egregious outside of Jake Marisnick. Other examples of this from Astros players with over 200 PA's both at home and on the road during said time period are:

    Marisnick: 133 wRC+ / 78 wRC+
    Reddick: 125 wRC+ / 102 wRC+
    Beltran: 85 wRC+ / 68 wRC+
    Gurriel: 119 wRC+ / 106 wRC+
    Springer: 135 wRC+ / 123 wRC+
    Bregman: 146 wRC+ / 135 wRC+

    Along with Altuve, all of these players also put up better numbers while on the road during this time period: Correa, Gonzalez, Gattis, and McCann.

    Wasn't sure exactly what I'd find while researching this topic but the data seems to backup my claims much better than it does yours. I understand having reservations about Astros hitters but I don't think they had some sort of God mode cheat code that many are making it out to be.

    Astros home 2017-2018: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ate=2018-12-31

    Astros away 2017-2018: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ter=&players=0




    *and yes, roughly one season of AB's is absolutely a drop in the bucket for anyone being considered for the HOF

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  4. #19
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    Also, let's not forget that they play in a very hitter friendly park.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban2.0 View Post
    One hitter to wonder about is Carlos Beltran, who was a bit of a boarderline case before, but since evidence has shown him as a ring leader in all this...idk.
    How?

    He WS a HOF caliber player before 2017 and is not like 2017 numbers changed that for the better or worst as he was a bench player.

    Itís up to the voters to punish him and if they do it would be idiotic.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    No one is elected to the Hall of Fame based off a couple seasons of strong work. Not to mention that none of the Astros accrued 2000 AB's (let alone home AB's) from the beginning of 2017 to some point in the 2018 seasons. Even if we're going to say they cheated every single AB of every single home game for all of the 2017-2018 seasons, the most home AB's any one player got during this period was Altuve with 561. Looking in to the stats a bit, we can see that Altuve hit for a 126 wRC+ at home and 169 wRC+(!) on the road during this period. Doesn't really jive with the narrative so many are pushing.

    There are certainly some players that did hit better at home during this period but none of the splits look especially egregious outside of Jake Marisnick. Other examples of this from Astros players with over 200 PA's both at home and on the road during said time period are:

    Marisnick: 133 wRC+ / 78 wRC+
    Reddick: 125 wRC+ / 102 wRC+
    Beltran: 85 wRC+ / 68 wRC+
    Gurriel: 119 wRC+ / 106 wRC+
    Springer: 135 wRC+ / 123 wRC+
    Bregman: 146 wRC+ / 135 wRC+

    Along with Altuve, all of these players also put up better numbers while on the road during this time period: Correa, Gonzalez, Gattis, and McCann.

    Wasn't sure exactly what I'd find while researching this topic but the data seems to backup my claims much better than it does yours. I understand having reservations about Astros hitters but I don't think they had some sort of God mode cheat code that many are making it out to be.

    Astros home 2017-2018: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ate=2018-12-31

    Astros away 2017-2018: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ter=&players=0




    *and yes, roughly one season of AB's is absolutely a drop in the bucket for anyone being considered for the HOF
    Not sure what claim you think it is that I've made other than simply saying I dont trust the performance of the players in this organization because we have already seen first hand that they are willing to go to unethical extremes.

    You went to a lot of work, which I appreciate, to illustrate home vs away for the period mentioned in the report. But what if they were doing this or other things before this. What if this was just the latest evolution of their efforts to gain an advantage. If I remember the report correctly, it was mentioned that the trash can practice was abandoned because it was no longer effective. Is nobody asking why that would be? Either MLB teams were aware by this point or maybe they found something else. Or maybe they found something else BECAUSE other teams had caught on. What I am 100% sure of is that knowing what pitch is coming will never cease to be helpful.

    I also think it's very possible that if you go to this level of extremes to cheat it's possible that there were other things tried on the road as well.

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    Last edited by Jamiecballer; 01-18-2020 at 11:46 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  7. #22
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    You asked what claim it is you made. The one I referred to is "the cheating the Astros did could turn a really good player in to a HOF'er". I see no evidence of this and it's such a small sample size it'd be insignificant to the body of work required to be in the conversation for a HOF election anyways.

    If you simply said that no player associated with any kind of significant cheating should be elected in to the HOF, that'd make quite a bit more sense.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    Really? How does something like this not create serious doubt in your mind about the legitimacy of the numbers, not just 2017 but basically everything they've done in an astros uniform until today?
    Some peopleís mindset blows my mind. If it doesnít help, why in the hell do they do it in the first place?

    ďYou know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? Itís 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points, OK? Thereís six months in a season. Thatís about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week, just one, a gork, a ground ball ó a ground ball with eyes! ó you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and youíre in Yankee Stadium. You still donít know what Iím talking about, do you?Ē
    Last edited by thefeckcampaign; 01-19-2020 at 09:51 AM.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    How?

    He WS a HOF caliber player before 2017 and is not like 2017 numbers changed that for the better or worst as he was a bench player.

    Itís up to the voters to punish him and if they do it would be idiotic.
    He was a borderline candidate, he never hit any major milestone, and he ruined his personal credibility.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban2.0 View Post
    He was a borderline candidate, he never hit any major milestone, and he ruined his personal credibility.
    The milestone thing is ********.

    He was a 9 time all star has who won multiple GG and hit over 400 homers, over 2500 hits, stole over 300 bases and has the best base stealing % of all time. Over 500 doubles, over 1500 RBI and 1500 Runs.

    He was not borderline, those are hof numbers from a CF.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    I don't know how big of a bucket you are anticipating if someone like Bregman's 2000 AB's could be a drop. Unless you are satisfied with assuming that everything was on the up and up before the period they were nailed for, and after. That's totally fine, but I dont think I would be the only one who thinks perpetrators of such egregious cheating don't deserve the benefit of the doubt.

    I'm not saying I would disregard everything guys like Altuve and Bregman have done. But I would say that if they end up in HOF discussions primarily for what they did as Astros I would not vote them in if I had a vote. Everyone on that team would be in a show me that it wasnt cheating sort of mode from here on in. If they perform up to this level going forward, they get a lot of credibility back. If their careers are good to very good from here on out but the strength of their case comes from this period in Houston that would be sorry but no for me.

    And for the record I am perfectly fine leaving anyone out of the hof that was guilty of PED use for the exact same reason. I dont care if you tested positive at age 35, being caught cheating casts doubt with me.

    I dont think something like this turns average hitters into great ones, no. Just as I dont believe steroids did. But it definitely could make really good players into HOF candidates, and I think based on the elaborate scheming they engaged in they knew it was a big advantage as well.



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    The bolded is basically where I'm at.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff(TONE) View Post
    No one is elected to the Hall of Fame based off a couple seasons of strong work. Not to mention that none of the Astros accrued 2000 AB's (let alone home AB's) from the beginning of 2017 to some point in the 2018 seasons. Even if we're going to say they cheated every single AB of every single home game for all of the 2017-2018 seasons, the most home AB's any one player got during this period was Altuve with 561. Looking in to the stats a bit, we can see that Altuve hit for a 126 wRC+ at home and 169 wRC+(!) on the road during this period. Doesn't really jive with the narrative so many are pushing.

    There are certainly some players that did hit better at home during this period but none of the splits look especially egregious outside of Jake Marisnick. Other examples of this from Astros players with over 200 PA's both at home and on the road during said time period are:

    Marisnick: 133 wRC+ / 78 wRC+
    Reddick: 125 wRC+ / 102 wRC+
    Beltran: 85 wRC+ / 68 wRC+
    Gurriel: 119 wRC+ / 106 wRC+
    Springer: 135 wRC+ / 123 wRC+
    Bregman: 146 wRC+ / 135 wRC+

    Along with Altuve, all of these players also put up better numbers while on the road during this time period: Correa, Gonzalez, Gattis, and McCann.

    Wasn't sure exactly what I'd find while researching this topic but the data seems to backup my claims much better than it does yours. I understand having reservations about Astros hitters but I don't think they had some sort of God mode cheat code that many are making it out to be.

    Astros home 2017-2018: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ate=2018-12-31

    Astros away 2017-2018: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ter=&players=0




    *and yes, roughly one season of AB's is absolutely a drop in the bucket for anyone being considered for the HOF
    https://www.12up.com/posts/astros-ho...g-01dsjze4xax2


    https://brobible.com/sports/article/...17-postseason/

    It looks like the biggest benefit was in the 2017 postseason, and it also appears that they still used the system in 2019.

    It is impossible to say for sure how much the system was a benefit to any individual player, especially as it relates to their career stats, but I think it is reasonable to believe that key at bats and entire games or even series would be impacted. There are tons of videos that show specific at bats where the hitters laid off the offspeed pitches, and were aggressive on fastballs, including the postseason.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonofdad View Post
    https://www.12up.com/posts/astros-ho...g-01dsjze4xax2


    https://brobible.com/sports/article/...17-postseason/

    It looks like the biggest benefit was in the 2017 postseason, and it also appears that they still used the system in 2019.

    It is impossible to say for sure how much the system was a benefit to any individual player, especially as it relates to their career stats, but I think it is reasonable to believe that key at bats and entire games or even series would be impacted. There are tons of videos that show specific at bats where the hitters laid off the offspeed pitches, and were aggressive on fastballs, including the postseason.
    To be fair, most hitters tend to hit better at home and in a small sample size, its easy for those large gaps to exist. Altuve has had similar hot stretches in 35 ABs at home before and so have the others players referenced. Not dismissing that the Astros cheated but its arbitrary to how it affected outcomes because we don't know when it mattered and when it didn't. Just because guys know whats coming doesn't mean they are always putting it in play or for that matter getting hits when doing so.

    Its funny though. No one brings up that the Astros lost every home game in the WS in 2019. Sure their system was advantageous but it wasnt full proof. Its why no one can just take that WS in 2017 away.
    Last edited by metswon69; 01-20-2020 at 10:08 AM.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    To be fair, most hitters tend to hit better at home and in a small sample size, its easy for those large gaps to exist. Altuve has had similar hot stretches in 35 ABs at home before and so have the others players referenced. Not dismissing that the Astros cheated but its arbitrary to how it affected outcomes because we don't know when it mattered and when it didn't. Just because guys know whats coming doesn't mean they are always putting it in play or for that matter getting hits when doing so.

    Its funny though. No one brings up that the Astros lost every home game in the WS in 2019. Sure their system was advantageous but it wasnt full proof. Its why no one can just take that WS in 2017 away.
    I agree. It is impossible to draw direct correlations to the system that was implemented and the direct benefit - those stats are pretty lopsided. I would suggest they employed the system, and tweaked/maintained it over a period of time for the simple fact that it was beneficial. As it relates to whether or not this impacts a player gettting into the hall, that seems unlikely to me. Too many players in the hall that would not be in, if there was such a hard line drawn. There are a number of players whose postseason career specifically would put them over the top - someone like Bumgarner for example.

    EDIT: Interesting comments from the commissioner about the Farquar impact and mods they made for the postseason....

    https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/co...stros_players/
    Last edited by sonofdad; 01-20-2020 at 10:33 AM.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonofdad View Post
    https://www.12up.com/posts/astros-ho...g-01dsjze4xax2


    https://brobible.com/sports/article/...17-postseason/

    It looks like the biggest benefit was in the 2017 postseason, and it also appears that they still used the system in 2019.

    It is impossible to say for sure how much the system was a benefit to any individual player, especially as it relates to their career stats, but I think it is reasonable to believe that key at bats and entire games or even series would be impacted. There are tons of videos that show specific at bats where the hitters laid off the offspeed pitches, and were aggressive on fastballs, including the postseason.
    Didn't you just get done criticizing me for a lack of evidence? Now you're not only basing an accusation on zero evidence, you're completely ignoring MLB's investigation that clearly stated no cheating occurred in 2019. See why Astros fans get upset in these discussions? Critics love to talk out of both sides of their mouth, regardless how hypocritical they're being.

    And 100% agree with the other poster that the 2017 postseason is hardly evidence of anything. 18 games is an extremely small sample size, and if I were to pull up postseason stats from other contending teams at home vs. the road, you'd probably see a similar trend. For example:

    6 games, 35 runs on 47 hits, 9 HRs, 33 RBI, .250 BA, .812 OPS
    7 games, 16 runs on 42 hits, 7 HRs, 15 RBI, .176 BA, .530 OPS

    That's the Yankees home vs. road splits in the 2017 postseason. So the Yankees must have been cheating, too, right?


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