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  1. #16
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    Dec 2012
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    561
    As far as UFA WRs are concerned it seems like AJ Green, Emmanuel Sanders, Amare Cooper or bust.

    And out of those three, I only really want AJ Green.

    UFA TEs --> Ebron, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper.

    I am fine with letting Kroft walk, he was a bust of a signing & I recall reading we can save $5million off the cap by cutting him.

  2. #17
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    Feb 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Smuggler View Post
    I really want Tee Higgins, but I am worried he won't get to #22.

    Teams ahead of us that could grab a WR

    Pick # Team
    3 Lions
    4 Giants
    6 Chargers
    8 Cardinals
    11 Jets
    12 Raiders
    13 Colts
    18 Dolphins (f/PIT)
    21 Eagles
    The colts are probably the only team there that I wouldn’t expect a WR to be drafted.

  3. #18

    First-round

    Buffalo Bills first-round pick location at the 2020 NFL draft.
    (myassignmenthelp review)

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
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    NJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    The colts are probably the only team there that I wouldn’t expect a WR to be drafted.
    Jets and Raiders also. Wouldn’t be surprised if Giants or Lions drafted Jeudy. Can’t see him falling out of the top 5.

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    18,084
    Tee Higgins just lowered his shoulder to muscle his way in for a 36-yard TD on a reverse. That was great to see from a kid with that kind of frame. He's very A.J. Green-like in his build.
    Chicago CubsChicago BlackhawksBuffalo BillsSouthern Illinois University Salukis

    Naomi OsakaAngelique KerberBianca Andreescu

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Aug 2019
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    96
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    I like their ability to turn trash into gold on the defensive side of things so I would be content with the bulk of the FA signings going toward defence.
    I'm gonna pick on you here a little bit Chong on that part of your post. Please don't take it personally as you've simply uttered what many people have.

    J.Phillips is going to cost an arm-and-a-leg now, and that would simply keep the D at par other than with Lorax gone and Hughes (both legacy players not brought on by McBeane) obviously aging and declining.

    If they knew that they would turn Phillips into something like he was this year, then wouldn't you say that it would have been galactically stupid to not to sign him to something other than cheap one-year contract, then go out and draft 9th overall someone to play the same spot? The answer is yes, it would have been galactially stupid, so unless we believe that they're that stupid, they obviously had no idea that a very marginal player would step up to that degree.

    And believe me, I don’t think that either McD or Beane are all that bright but at the same time they’re hardly that stupid. So clearly it’s not what they were expecting, therefore we shouldn’t turn it into some brilliant move on their part.

    Granted, they did “turn ‘trash’ into gold” as it were re: Phillips, but contrary to your statement they haven’t even turned moderate players that could equally be called “trash,” like Lotulolei, Murphy, and Liuget into what they were elsewhere. So I’m not sure that’s a fair statement on your part. They essentially lucked out with Phillips, but from a team planning (GM) angle, now they’ve screwed themselves by not having given Phillips a cheap two or three-year deal. They’ll have to pony up top DT money just to stay even.

  7. #22
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    Aug 2019
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    96
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack the Ripper View Post
    The first WR to come off the board last year was Hollywood Brown at #25. Deebo Samuel had a good season, he was the 36th pick. A.J. Brown, who I thought was the best receiver coming out of the draft last year and also lead rookie receivers in yards, was the 51st pick. Mecole Hardman, Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf all went in the mid-2nd or later.

    There has always been tremendous value at the WR position in the 2nd round. With a strong WR class, we'll have our opportunities to hit on that position.
    We should have taken Smith-Shuster over Jones in '17. I waas all over that, stupid move. Having said that, WRs are difficult to translate to the NFL sometimes.

    Whenever one considers "team building," you absolutely have to look at NFL history. Draft history in this case. Over the past five seasons, of the WRs taken among the top-10 picks, only one has remotely panned out to expecations, Cooper, and even he's been inconsistent. Davis (5th overall), White & Williams (7th's), and Ross (9th) have all been disappointments for one reason or another. The bottom of round 1 has fared much bettter.

    Longer term draft history bears this out as well. Younger fans may not have the recollections, but the data is a few clicks away.

    That's why our desperation trade-up to justify Manuel and getting Watkins was stupid.

    Top-10 picks should be reserved for QBs, LTs, OLBs/DEs that are pass-rushers, a rare MLB and some CBs.

    Teams should do this with every position however. One must balance depth in the draft with team needs, which is why, barring a team that's already SB capable, against drafting BPA. For example, if the BPA in this draft for us were a CB, it would be stupid for us to take that player. Perhaps consider a trade down, but getting such a player when the secondary is the strength of our team is not the way to build the team.

    We would get a far bigger marginal improvement and achieve far greater marginal utility by getting a competent LT, WR, or OLB for example.
    Last edited by Wings & Bleu; 01-15-2020 at 12:47 PM.

  8. #23
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    Aug 2019
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    96
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack the Ripper View Post
    I disagree a bit here. A.J. Brown was the best receiver from the 2019 class; 52 catches, 1051 receiving yards, 8 TDs, and from the 51st overall pick. I thought he was the hands down best receiver in the draft last year and he was still available in the mid 2nd. Positional strengths will push players beyond their projected draft slots, of course, and last year it was a particularly strong defensive draft. So a lot of those 1st round grade players will see day two.
    If one looks at the data it's clear that WRs on average taken in round 2 are not significantly different in terms of production than those taken in round 1.

    Some examples from the past five drafts are Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, and Smith-Shuster, all mid-late 2nd rounders. They've outperformed most of the WRs taken in round 1 during those same drafts.

  9. #24
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    Aug 2019
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    96
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack the Ripper View Post
    Couple things...

    McDermott spoke today about keeping the team together as much as possible. About the offense, he said that they need to score more points and this is something they’ll look to address in the off-season. He also spoke of having two good backs to carry the ball.

    Beane said of Allen that he’d rather have a QB who makes “hero ball” mistakes trying to do too much rather than checkdown Charlie.

    10 win season and an exciting playoff game that we could have/probably should have won in the books. Players and coaches want more. This should be a really fun off-season.
    Beane & McD are going to sink or swim based upon Allen's performance. You simply don't make a ridiculous trade-up like that and stay on if it fails.

    Having said that, the fact that Beane is talking about "keeping a team together" in year three of what was a rebuild, with some saying that year one didn't count because they first had to "dig out" from the mess that they inherited, shows that Beane hasn't done a good job.

    If he had been doing a good job he'd have had most of his players signed for another two or three seasons. Joradn Phillips for example.

    They've wasted a ton of money on players like Kroft, Lotulolei, and Murphy who add little and are all role players at best.

    They have a lot of cap space, but that doesn't include Lorax (retired), Phillips, or Lawson, and only has one reliable RB. Plus, next year and the one after they're going to have some big players coming up for contracts.

    A good chunk of the cap space now is going to have to go to simply keeping the status quo, if they can even do it. I'm not sure that Phillips or Lawson, neither of which did anything until a contract year, are going to be worth the money. Having said that, with whom do they replace those guys? How will those replacements play?

    This is why the draft is so important.

    Last season we'd have been wise to have taken Dillard, whom fans are already calling to replace the storied Peters at LT, and Risner, who played much better than Ford did. Had we done that we'd have been in a much better position now.

    Also, I'm going to call out this notion and narrative that feeds the "Beane has done a great job/EotY" narrative by pointing out that it was a mere few months ago that the narrative was one of how Beane has vinally put together a top-notch or at least vastly improved OL and gotten solid starting WRs and TEs, whereby Foster was going to shine.

    Now, and suddenly, that narrative has changed to barely more than it was last season, one of needing a better OL, better WRs, TEs, etc.

    At some point, in evaluating them, we need to reconciled these narratives. What I see is pure homerism.

  10. #25
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    Aug 2019
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    96
    The team has no choice. It absolutely has to go OT in round one. They'll likely exercise his 5th-year option, but after two more seasons he'll be a FA. We don't want to be grooming a rookie then, particularly when the RT spot is also unclear.

    As I mentioned, wise would have been to have drafted Dillard over Oliver last season, but that ship has sailed as they say.

    What OTs will be available at 22nd anyway. None the caliber of what Dillard is. If we had drafted Dillard we'd have been set for a decade easily. That's part of what I'm talking about re: team-building. These guys seem to focus on D because that's where they're comfortable, but they've done so at the neglect of the offense.

    Their approach seems to be very Belichick-easque, who's terrible in that way, by patch-work free-agent fills every season relying on overachieving players around a GOAT player.

    That may work if you have that GOAT player, but we don't. And betting the farm every season on players like Jordan Phillips to for no foreseeable reason to all of a sudden raise their level of play from depth-caliber to top-3 at their position is foolish. No other free-agent that they've signed has done that. More than not have underachieved as starters. Kroft, Lotulolei, Murphy, the OL-men signed, etc.

    They need a homerun draft IMO to even remotely stay even. But what do I know.

    Either way, I envision absolutely no possibility besides drafting an OT in round 1. The only way I'd pass on that is if the next four or five OTs are all generally comparable. I might be tempted to go DE/OLB pass-rusher or WR at 22. Hughes ain't gettin' any younger.

  11. #26
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    Feb 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wings & Bleu View Post
    I'm gonna pick on you here a little bit Chong on that part of your post. Please don't take it personally as you've simply uttered what many people have.

    J.Phillips is going to cost an arm-and-a-leg now, and that would simply keep the D at par other than with Lorax gone and Hughes (both legacy players not brought on by McBeane) obviously aging and declining.

    If they knew that they would turn Phillips into something like he was this year, then wouldn't you say that it would have been galactically stupid to not to sign him to something other than cheap one-year contract, then go out and draft 9th overall someone to play the same spot? The answer is yes, it would have been galactially stupid, so unless we believe that they're that stupid, they obviously had no idea that a very marginal player would step up to that degree.

    And believe me, I don’t think that either McD or Beane are all that bright but at the same time they’re hardly that stupid. So clearly it’s not what they were expecting, therefore we shouldn’t turn it into some brilliant move on their part.

    Granted, they did “turn ‘trash’ into gold” as it were re: Phillips, but contrary to your statement they haven’t even turned moderate players that could equally be called “trash,” like Lotulolei, Murphy, and Liuget into what they were elsewhere. So I’m not sure that’s a fair statement on your part. They essentially lucked out with Phillips, but from a team planning (GM) angle, now they’ve screwed themselves by not having given Phillips a cheap two or three-year deal. They’ll have to pony up top DT money just to stay even.
    Sorry, this post is dumb.

    Phillips should be retained and he will not cost an arm and a leg because 1 good year does not earn you generational money in this league.

    If the defence is as good next season as it was this season then that’s just perfect to me.

    It’s baffling to me how you’re trying to spin the signing into a mistake. Poryer was probably a mistake too then right?

  12. #27
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    Feb 2009
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    10,804
    Quote Originally Posted by Wings & Bleu View Post
    We should have taken Smith-Shuster over Jones in '17. I waas all over that, stupid move. Having said that, WRs are difficult to translate to the NFL sometimes.

    Whenever one considers "team building," you absolutely have to look at NFL history. Draft history in this case. Over the past five seasons, of the WRs taken among the top-10 picks, only one has remotely panned out to expecations, Cooper, and even he's been inconsistent. Davis (5th overall), White & Williams (7th's), and Ross (9th) have all been disappointments for one reason or another. The bottom of round 1 has fared much bettter.

    Longer term draft history bears this out as well. Younger fans may not have the recollections, but the data is a few clicks away.

    That's why our desperation trade-up to justify Manuel and getting Watkins was stupid.

    Top-10 picks should be reserved for QBs, LTs, OLBs/DEs that are pass-rushers, a rare MLB and some CBs.

    Teams should do this with every position however. One must balance depth in the draft with team needs, which is why, barring a team that's already SB capable, against drafting BPA. For example, if the BPA in this draft for us were a CB, it would be stupid for us to take that player. Perhaps consider a trade down, but getting such a player when the secondary is the strength of our team is not the way to build the team.

    We would get a far bigger marginal improvement and achieve far greater marginal utility by getting a competent LT, WR, or OLB for example.
    We’re picking 22nd so most of this is irrelevant.

    I agree that we shouldn’t trade up for a WR if that’s what you’re getting at.

  13. #28
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    Feb 2009
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    10,804
    Quote Originally Posted by Wings & Bleu View Post
    If one looks at the data it's clear that WRs on average taken in round 2 are not significantly different in terms of production than those taken in round 1.

    Some examples from the past five drafts are Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, and Smith-Shuster, all mid-late 2nd rounders. They've outperformed most of the WRs taken in round 1 during those same drafts.
    WR’s are also a product of the team around them.
    A quick look at those offences and it all makes sense.

    Usually teams with great offences are looking for game changing defensive help in the 1st, and supplementing the already great offence from there.

    I still want a WR at 22 instead of waiting for the leftovers.

  14. #29
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    Feb 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wings & Bleu View Post
    Beane & McD are going to sink or swim based upon Allen's performance. You simply don't make a ridiculous trade-up like that and stay on if it fails.

    Having said that, the fact that Beane is talking about "keeping a team together" in year three of what was a rebuild, with some saying that year one didn't count because they first had to "dig out" from the mess that they inherited, shows that Beane hasn't done a good job.

    If he had been doing a good job he'd have had most of his players signed for another two or three seasons. Joradn Phillips for example.

    They've wasted a ton of money on players like Kroft, Lotulolei, and Murphy who add little and are all role players at best.

    They have a lot of cap space, but that doesn't include Lorax (retired), Phillips, or Lawson, and only has one reliable RB. Plus, next year and the one after they're going to have some big players coming up for contracts.

    A good chunk of the cap space now is going to have to go to simply keeping the status quo, if they can even do it. I'm not sure that Phillips or Lawson, neither of which did anything until a contract year, are going to be worth the money. Having said that, with whom do they replace those guys? How will those replacements play?

    This is why the draft is so important.

    Last season we'd have been wise to have taken Dillard, whom fans are already calling to replace the storied Peters at LT, and Risner, who played much better than Ford did. Had we done that we'd have been in a much better position now.

    Also, I'm going to call out this notion and narrative that feeds the "Beane has done a great job/EotY" narrative by pointing out that it was a mere few months ago that the narrative was one of how Beane has vinally put together a top-notch or at least vastly improved OL and gotten solid starting WRs and TEs, whereby Foster was going to shine.

    Now, and suddenly, that narrative has changed to barely more than it was last season, one of needing a better OL, better WRs, TEs, etc.

    At some point, in evaluating them, we need to reconciled these narratives. What I see is pure homerism.
    Omg... wtf are you even talking about?! Haha

  15. #30
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    Feb 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wings & Bleu View Post
    The team has no choice. It absolutely has to go OT in round one. They'll likely exercise his 5th-year option, but after two more seasons he'll be a FA. We don't want to be grooming a rookie then, particularly when the RT spot is also unclear.

    As I mentioned, wise would have been to have drafted Dillard over Oliver last season, but that ship has sailed as they say.

    What OTs will be available at 22nd anyway. None the caliber of what Dillard is. If we had drafted Dillard we'd have been set for a decade easily. That's part of what I'm talking about re: team-building. These guys seem to focus on D because that's where they're comfortable, but they've done so at the neglect of the offense.

    Their approach seems to be very Belichick-easque, who's terrible in that way, by patch-work free-agent fills every season relying on overachieving players around a GOAT player.

    That may work if you have that GOAT player, but we don't. And betting the farm every season on players like Jordan Phillips to for no foreseeable reason to all of a sudden raise their level of play from depth-caliber to top-3 at their position is foolish. No other free-agent that they've signed has done that. More than not have underachieved as starters. Kroft, Lotulolei, Murphy, the OL-men signed, etc.

    They need a homerun draft IMO to even remotely stay even. But what do I know.

    Either way, I envision absolutely no possibility besides drafting an OT in round 1. The only way I'd pass on that is if the next four or five OTs are all generally comparable. I might be tempted to go DE/OLB pass-rusher or WR at 22. Hughes ain't gettin' any younger.
    I couldn’t even finish this post.

    I’m out.

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