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  1. #4651
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    I won't comment on much. I again disagree with the idea Mitch was ever any good, including 2018. That aside, the idea you need a good run game for play action to be effective has been debunked pretty hard: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...action-passing
    Not just Football Outsiders too. A lot of analytics guys on Twitter point this out all the time during games. Aikman mentioned it during the super bowl.

  2. #4652
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    Also worth noting how much nickel teams play when Cohen is on the field.......and how often Cohen is on the field.

  3. #4653
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    13-4 record over the last two seasons when the bears have a rusher with 50 yards rushing. How bout this....fix the ****ing OL and run the damned ball. Draft your guy of the future in 2021. But no need to turn to daltons. Keenums, and Newtonís. The recipe is clear. As long as you follow it.

  4. #4654
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    For anyone whoís interested. This is from another poster from another site but itís extremely well researched and very interesting:


    I calculated all the games where a running back gained 50 yards individually in a game.....meaning run support...yes it is arbitrary but I need to pick a decent baseline

    Stats only calculated for Trubisky

    There were 10 games in 2018 Bears went 8-2

    Trubisky's line was 203/300 2200 16-7 Passer rating of 97.08...The League average passer rating was 92.9

    There were only 7 games in 2019 Bears went 5-2

    Trubisky's line was 147/218 1385 9-3 Passer rating of 92.78......The League average passer rating was 90.4

    Passer ratings pretty close to each other year over year when compared to league average.....


    In 2018 the top two backs gained 1379 on 349 attempts for 3.95 ypc

    In 2019 the top two running backs gained 1102 on 306 attempts for 3.60 ypc


    In 2018 Jordan Howard faced an average of 6.7 defenders in the box and faced a stacked front 18.4% of the time and nickel and dime 40% of the time
    Cohen faced 6.4 defenders in the box and a 7.1% stacked defense and a nickel and dime defense 59.6% of the time

    In 2019 David Montgomery faced 6.5 defenders in the box and faced a stacked front 14.5% of the time and nickel and dime 51.7% of the time
    Cohen faced 5.8 defenders in the box and a stacked front 0% of the time(yes this is correct) and a nickel and dime defense 82.8% of the time

    Bears running game got significantly worse which causes a major shift by defenses to consistently go to nickel and dime defenses to expressly stop Trubisky from throwing from year one to year two......when Trubisky received running support he was an above average league passer still...his rating stayed pretty consistent from year one to year two....

    Conclusion.......unless you are a ****ing moron you can clearly see teams abandoned stopping the run against the Bears in 2019 and went into a lot more passing defense....The Bears could not/would not run against teams when they clearly should have been able to....Teams specifically went out of their way to stop Trubisky.

    side info

    In games where Trubisky did not have a 50 yard rusher:

    In 2018 he had a passer rating of 89.77 Bears were 4-1

    In 2019 he had a passer rating of 71.18 Bears were 1-5

    Clearly teams paying little attention to the run caused major problems for the Bears offense.......In 2018 with defenses playing against the run Trubisky had more success even when he did not receive run support....In 2019 with little run support and defenses clearly keying on him it did not work out so well. However the games he did get run support he played well.
    I think the reason he chose 50 yards as the baseline is because Tarik Cohen conveniently went for 53 yards in the 2018 Tampa game that completely skewed Mitch's passer-rating for the year. If you make it 54 yards as the baseline, his passer rating for 2018 under the constraints he set go down to 86.99

  5. #4655
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    I think the reason he chose 50 yards as the baseline is because Tarik Cohen conveniently went for 53 yards in the 2018 Tampa game that completely skewed Mitch's passer-rating for the year. If you make it 54 yards as the baseline, his passer rating for 2018 under the constraints he set go down to 86.99
    Wait a minute, heís saying a rusher of 50 or more yards - So how would a baseline of 54 lower the rating?

  6. #4656
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    Wait a minute, heís saying a rusher of 50 or more yards - So how would a baseline of 54 lower the rating?
    Because then he can't include the Tampa Bay game. If we make the parameter 54 yards or more, Tarik Cohen's 53 yards from that game no longer qualify and you can't include it in your sample. In games with 54 yards or more from an individual rusher, Mitch's QB rating goes down to 86.99. I don't think there's much foundation to the argument when setting the parameters higher for the running game result in a much worse QB rating for Mitch. If anything, the opposite argument is implied, which obviously makes no sense.

    You can make any point compelling under very specific parameters. Especially in small samples where outliers heavily skew your data. This is elementary statistics. I think it's much more believable Mitch is just bad and will be bad under most circumstances.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 02-28-2020 at 05:33 PM.

  7. #4657
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    That isn't to say I think Andy Dalton is gonna make us instant Super Bowl favorites. I think he'd probably raise our chances a little, if only because Dalton has at least had some good seasons here and there where I'd argue Mitch never has (regardless of how much people wanna try and sway me about 2018).

    But Derek Carr? I think he substantially raises this teams chances of winning over the next few seasons. It's like DG said, I can buy an argument it's unlikely the Bears are able to address the QB position in a meaningful way this year (basically, we're stuck with Mitch), but he severely limits this offense's upside and it'd be hard to be excited about any Trubisky-led offense regardless of what we do around him.

  8. #4658
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    Thatís interesting. Like I said Iíd be down for Carr, but itíll come down to price which likely will be too high.

    Everyone else though? Meh. Just fix the run game, add some play makers and this team makes the playoffs. I also wouldnít rule out overall improvement from Mitch with a QB coach that actually preaches fundamentals and technique. Although maybe not. Either way, hard to get too excited until the bears are in a position to draft a franchise guy for the future which wonít be until next year at the earliest.

  9. #4659
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    Also, that new baseline changes things for 2018, but in 2019 how does it look?

  10. #4660
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    Also, that new baseline changes things for 2018, but in 2019 how does it look?
    It's a 7 game sample. Who gives af? My guess is that sample includes 1 or 2 of his games against Dallas or the Lions or two of the other games Mitch had last year with a QBR over 90 and because it's a 7 game sample, it skews the data more favorably. I think there's about as much weight to this idea Mitch will be a magically better QB with a better running game as there will that the running game magically becomes really good just because we get a better QB.

    Are they related? Sure, one isn't gonna just fix the other. Mitch is bad. The run blocking is bad. Coaching serves a roll in it all too.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 02-28-2020 at 05:56 PM.

  11. #4661
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    Lol so just disregard anything positive regarding Mitch. Please. Your bias is showing pretty hard.

  12. #4662
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    You know why itís only a 7 game sample? Because the pathetic OL and Nagy couldnít get a rusher above 50 yards more than that.

    8-0 when throwing less than 30 times last year.

    Good numbers when a rusher gets 50 yards.

    But yeah, who gives AF. Itís positive and doesnít fit your narrative so disregard. Lol

  13. #4663
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    Well I wonít ignore the things around him that are broken. But the things Mitch deserves blame for:

    Accuracy. He missed a lot of open receivers.

    Making the right reads and not pre determining reads.

    Confidence. I think he struggled with this and it effected his play.

    That said, the bears were 8-0 when he threw less than 30 times. His record and rating overall when he has a single rusher with 50 yards is good. Rating is average but W/L record is very good. Iíll post more when I get a chance. Not that most of you are going to care or look at things objectively. But thereís tons of data to suggest if you give Mitch a decent running game and donít have him throw it 30+ times, this team is almost unbeatable.

    Thereís blame that goes all around. Nagy said coaches have told him during film study about bad play calls and design. Pace had made mention not trying to make Mitch something he isnít. Kyle long said the team could win with Mitch and the OL flat out didnít do their jobs. I think thereís validity to this but most will revert to ďMitch blows and letís replace him with Dalton for da Super Bowlz.Ē

    I think of the bears fix the glaring issues at TE and OL, a lot of people are going to be surprised and the bears are going to win games. I donít think Mitch will play elite or anything; but theyíll absolutely win games.
    Pretty sure those were against ****** defenses/teams. With the exception of Dallas (who wasn't really that good), he wasn't impressive against any worthy opponent. Maybe my expectations are too high for the #2 overall pick, but I'd expect that he can overcome the shortcomings you mentioned and make plays. Instead we're sitting here talking about fixing everything around him.

    Bottom line, I don't care what they upgrade around him. He's ultimately going to seal their fate in the playoffs against quality teams (if they get there). He's been terrible in almost every big game.

  14. #4664
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    You know why itís only a 7 game sample? Because the pathetic OL and Nagy couldnít get a rusher above 50 yards more than that.

    8-0 when throwing less than 30 times last year.

    Good numbers when a rusher gets 50 yards.

    But yeah, who gives AF. Itís positive and doesnít fit your narrative so disregard. Lol
    Already mentioned in my post before this, but context matters. Maybe you should look a little deeper into those stats as they don't paint the whole picture. Oh wait, won't fit your narrative.

  15. #4665
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    You know why itís only a 7 game sample? Because the pathetic OL and Nagy couldnít get a rusher above 50 yards more than that.

    8-0 when throwing less than 30 times last year.

    Good numbers when a rusher gets 50 yards.

    But yeah, who gives AF. Itís positive and doesnít fit your narrative so disregard. Lol
    I'm biased? For one thing, I think it's pretty clear that that 50 yard number was chosen pretty manipulatively. If you make it 55 yards, or 60 yards the entire thing goes down the toilet. Sure, Mitch was better in 2019 with 55 yard rushers, but he was actually worse in 2018. I think it's pretty clumsy to say gross rushing yard totals are a good measurement of an effective running game anyway. Take that away and you have small sample ******** which I generally don't subscribe to. As for the 8-0 record when the QB doesn't throw much- is that supposed to be a positive thing about your QB? I think it's safe to say that's all a result of the fact our defense had everything go right for them last year, and Mitch didn't ever really need to do much. There's not a single game I can think of in Mitch's career where I think "man that guy won us the game tonight." You can maybe use the 8-0 when Mitch throws less than 30 passes argument as a "sort of" criticism of Nagy, but I've never defended Nagy in every situation, and again, it's 8 games against probably mostly bad teams. I've acknowledged plenty that I'm very concerned about the running game since he's been here, and about his playcalling. Just not as much as I am about Mitch.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 02-28-2020 at 06:56 PM.

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