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  1. #61
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    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    So your argument is that Realmuto and KB are equal?
    Again, read better. When did I say they are equal?

    They are different, but they have similar value. Realmuto outperformed KBs last 2 years before his trade. KB has a longer track record. Realmuto was much cheaper financially. KB plays a position with longer shelf life. Realmuto was 24th on the fangraphs trade value rankings in July 2018. KB was 25th in July 2019.

    They arenít identical players, but the trade value of Realmuto last winter and KB this winter is very similar.
    Last edited by CP_414; 12-07-2019 at 10:36 PM.

  2. #62
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    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    Youíre the GM of a team...

    You can have KB or Realmuto but not both.

    If you have KB, then you have a league avg catcher... if you have Realmuto, then you have a league avg 3rd baseman.

    Which one is more valuable to you?
    Thatís not the question. Salary counts. Itís KB at $18 mil year 1 and then $25-28 mil year 2 or Realmuto at $6 mil then $10-12 mil. Realmuto with the higher war the last 2 years. Realmuto at the position with a lot more scarcity in the league.

    When considering value itís performance and cost and alternative options that matter. Itís not just their performance in a vacuum with a theoretical league average player at the other spot.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Again, read better. When did I say they are equal?

    They are different, but they have similar value. Realmuto outperformed KBs last 2 years before his trade. KB has a longer track record. Realmuto was much cheaper financially. KB plays a position with longer shelf life. Realmuto was 24th on the fangraphs trade value rankings in July 2018. KB was 25th in July 2019.

    They arenít identical players, but the trade value is very similar.
    I tend to agree with a lot of what you say, CP, but in fairness, you did mention Cole + Machado too. Telling people they need to read better because 1 of the 3 guys mentioned is a good comp is a bit aggressive. I agree with the overall premise and conclusion but no need to attack people.

  4. #64
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    Nevermind, I forgot that any team can just go sign one of the many 28 year old former ROTY and MVP 3rd basemen that are on the market... for 2/45.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    Nevermind, I forgot that any team can just go sign one of the many 28 year old former ROTY and MVP 3rd basemen for 2/45 that are on the market...
    Well, I defended your stance and then you go and completely mischaracterize what CP actually did say. Bummer.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubs1423 View Post
    Well, I defended your stance and then you go and completely mischaracterize what CP actually did say. Bummer.
    I may have exaggerated it but I did not mischaracterize it.

    kB is very valuable and he will bring in a ton if they choose to trade him.

  7. #67
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    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by cubs1423 View Post
    I tend to agree with a lot of what you say, CP, but in fairness, you did mention Cole + Machado too. Telling people they need to read better because 1 of the 3 guys mentioned is a good comp is a bit aggressive. I agree with the overall premise and conclusion but no need to attack people.
    I felt sending me links to fangraphs pages like I donít know what Iím talking about was pretty condescending so I responded in kind.

    Again, if you actually read what I wrote, I didnít comp those guys to KB in terms of value. I comped them to KB and Betts in the context of talking about how people expected these guys to all bring back so much more than they did in a trade. In terms of value, Realmuto is right on. In terms of expectations in trade speculation being out of line with actual trade value all 3 of them are right on. It was written clearly.
    Last edited by CP_414; 12-08-2019 at 12:01 AM.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    I may have exaggerated it but I did not mischaracterize it.

    kB is very valuable and he will bring in a ton if they choose to trade him.
    Where did anyone say someone can go and get a 28 year old former MVP for 2/45? That is like me suggesting that you said anyone can go get the best catcher in the league for 2/25.

  9. #69
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    The point Iím making is that salary does count... I agree with you on that CP, but so does the lack of commitment into KBís 30ís. There is value in the fact that they donít have to sign him to a 10 year contract like Bryce or Machado got. They get KB at less than league value for his age 28 and 29 season without having to overpay for his age 38 and 39 season. Thatís worth something.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    Nevermind, I forgot that any team can just go sign one of the many 28 year old former ROTY and MVP 3rd basemen that are on the market... for 2/45.
    What? You canít go sign a 27 year old 4.5 win catcher for 2/17 in free agency either.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I felt sending me links to fangraphs pages like I donít know what Iím talking about was pretty condescending so I responded in kind.

    Again, if you actually read what I wrote, I didnít comp those guys to KB in terms of value. I comped them to KB and Betts in the context of talking about how people expected these guys to all bring back so much more than they did in a trade. In terms of value, Realmuto is right on. In terms of expectations in trade speculation beyond out of line with actual trade value all 3 of them are right on. It was written clearly.
    It wasnít meant to be condescending... I was merely providing a link so others could have quick access without going to look it up.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    The point Iím making is that salary does count... I agree with you on that CP, but so does the lack of commitment into KBís 30ís. There is value in the fact that they donít have to sign him to a 10 year contract like Bryce or Machado got. They get KB at less than league value for his age 28 and 29 season without having to overpay for his age 38 and 39 season. Thatís worth something.
    Of course itís worth something. Itís worth the $30-$45 million in surplus value that Iíve been talking about. Just like Realmuto was worth about the same surplus value in his trade. Thatís a lot of value. But you seem to have an issue with the idea that Realmuto has similar value at this time of his trade considering performance, contract, and positional scarcity and Im not sure why. Their values are very close.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    It wasnít meant to be condescending... I was merely providing a link so others could have quick access without going to look it up.
    And telling me to look at the stats and see if my position was the same, while mischaracterizing my position.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Of course itís worth something. Itís worth the $30-$45 million in surplus value that Iíve been talking about. Just like Realmuto was worth about the same surplus value in his trade. Thatís a lot of value. But you seem to have an issue with the idea that Realmuto has similar value at this time of his trade considering performance, contract, and positional scarcity and Im not sure why. Their values are very close.
    Not just Realmuto... Cole and Machado. Sure Realmuto is the closest in value to KB, but he isnít equal in value. I doubt there is a GM in the game who would see it that way unless they had an All-Star 3rd baseman already.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    Not just Realmuto... Cole and Machado. Sure Realmuto is the closest in value to KB, but he isnít equal in value. I doubt there is a GM in the game who would see it that way unless they had an All-Star 3rd baseman already.
    What about Cole and Machado? Was the speculation not that theyíd bring back all these great prospects and then they didnít?

    Or have you still not read my post correctly?

    I think you are wrong about Realmuto. The question is Realmuto last winter or KB this one. Including financials and positional alternatives. I bet a bunch of GMs take 2 years of Realmuto over 2 of KB. Probably a majority.

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