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  1. #46
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    2,028
    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Yep, I agree. Your expectations were to high. Hell, the Cubs can argue the last 5 years they have been as good as any team in baseball, with the possible exception of the Astros (who, apparently, cheated) and yet you are disappointed. That tells me your expectations, as those of so many, were way too high. It might end this year. I get that. And I am disappointed if it does. But, IMO it doesn't have to end. Sure, they are probably not going to compete with the Dodgers, and most likely the Braves next year. But, after that, I feel they can play with anyone else in the NL, if they just make some good cheaper pick ups. I think you, me, and most Cubs fans got sucked into this dynasty idea and failed to realize how hard that actually was and just enjoy the run while it was happening. Instead of looking at it as a long run of excellent play, we looked at it as a long run of under-performing.
    Disagree. You could make a legitimate argument that sufficient value has not been extracted from three of the four Theo top ten draft picks. Combine that with having not drafted a single good pitcher (Cease isn't a proven commodity yet) and you could argue that the run of dominance from 2015 to 2017 could have been extended with these issues having not occurred.

    I've said it several times and I'll say it again: Theo needs to raid the Cardinal system for scouts and minor league coaches. They have been leaps and bounds better than us when it has come to developing young pitching. And while people may want to get hot and bothered over Marquez I'm not ready to believe he's a Starter, rather than a late inning reliever. And beyond Marquez the system still isn't brimming with intriguing pitching. I wanted to believe in Albertos, mainly because of the potential plus plus changeup, but his stock has drastically declined lately.

  2. #47
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    5,101
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    What do you mean? It’s not just financial relief. A 55 FV prospect has $30-45 mil in surplus value on average. There’s still a lot of potential value in realistic prospect packages, but these Fried and Wright and Waters or Bohm and Howard and Medina ideas are not happening.

    I don’t think the Cubs will “rebuild,” but yeah, I do think they’ll be better positioned in 2 years to be the team that could trade for a 2 year rental of a superstar rather than the one talking about trading these guys away. That still doesn’t make KB replaceable for 2020. He’s not realistically replaceable short term.
    As one player no he’s not but I could easily see him upgrade 2 maybe even 3 positions with a trade. Just depends what we get but it’s not hard to be better in CF than we were last year. An arm could bolster the bullpen. I think Bote could be a 2 To 3 war everyday 3b.

    You got to look at the whole picture.

  3. #48
    Join Date
    May 2012
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    1,021
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    What do you mean? It’s not just financial relief. A 55 FV prospect has $30-45 mil in surplus value on average. There’s still a lot of potential value in realistic prospect packages, but these Fried and Wright and Waters or Bohm and Howard and Medina ideas are not happening.

    I don’t think the Cubs will “rebuild,” but yeah, I do think they’ll be better positioned in 2 years to be the team that could trade for a 2 year rental of a superstar rather than the one talking about trading these guys away. That still doesn’t make KB replaceable for 2020. He’s not realistically replaceable short term.
    Unless they add something, they were an 84 win team with KB and have less talent than they did last year. Hopefully we'll see some movement in the next few days, but something is going to have to change for them to be competitive the next 2 years. Call it a retool if you prefer.

    It's just interesting to see how cheap it is to acquire major league talent now. The Cubs paid significantly more in all their deals for lesser players in the old economy. It seems like a path to be exploited moving forward. A top 50 prospect and lottery tickets seems cheap for generational talents

  4. #49
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Illinois
    Posts
    421
    Would the Cubs / Braves entertain a Johan Camargo, Ender Inciarte, Fried (comparable young arm), prospect for Bryant and (Almora / etc.)? How far off am I, especially since the Braves seem interested in getting an elite third baseman? Would we be content with Camargo playing third base for us?
    Romans 12:21

  5. #50
    Join Date
    May 2012
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    1,021
    Double post

  6. #51
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
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    11,105
    Quote Originally Posted by petrey10 View Post
    As one player no he’s not but I could easily see him upgrade 2 maybe even 3 positions with a trade. Just depends what we get but it’s not hard to be better in CF than we were last year. An arm could bolster the bullpen. I think Bote could be a 2 To 3 war everyday 3b.

    You got to look at the whole picture.
    Looking at the whole picture is exactly the point. It’s not just replacing 5-8 wins randomly across a bunch of spots. It’s replacing 5-8 wins out of 1 roster spot. 5.5 WAR from 1 player is better than 7 WAR from 3 roster spots. Bote is on the roster either way (unless he’s moved separately). CF and the bullpen can be addressed in other ways. It’s not just trading KB and then adding 6 wins in other spots and saying it’s even now. They can add those wins in other spots while having KB.

  7. #52
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    11,105

    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by jfoley89 View Post
    Unless they add something, they were an 84 win team with KB and have less talent than they did last year. Hopefully we'll see some movement in the next few days, but something is going to have to change for them to be competitive the next 2 years. Call it a retool if you prefer.

    It's just interesting to see how cheap it is to acquire major league talent now. The Cubs paid significantly more in all their deals for lesser players in the old economy. It seems like a path to be exploited moving forward. A top 50 prospect and lottery tickets seems cheap for generational talents
    I think they were better than an 84 win team. They won 84 games but they played more like a 90 win team than an 84 win team based on RD. They sucked pitching in leverage, they had poorly timed injuries, but talent level and final record aren’t always equal. They have lost talent off that roster that they haven’t replaced yet. If they wanted to go for it and spend at the same level as 2019 it wouldn’t be hard for them to project to 90 wins and the top team in the Central.

    I agree that there’s a path to exploit in trades and acquire stars nearing FA. I wish they’d do it this winter. But they won’t.
    Last edited by CP_414; 12-07-2019 at 08:34 PM.

  8. #53
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    Sep 2007
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    Addison, IL
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    22,568
    Quote Originally Posted by BobbyD3 View Post
    Would the Cubs / Braves entertain a Johan Camargo, Ender Inciarte, Fried (comparable young arm), prospect for Bryant and (Almora / etc.)? How far off am I, especially since the Braves seem interested in getting an elite third baseman? Would we be content with Camargo playing third base for us?
    I think someone else mentioned that type of package earlier in the 1st Offseason thread and it was quickly shot down, seeing as Inciarte is injury prone and Camargo is a horrible defender.

    There’s other names on the Braves that majority in here would consider over Camargo/Inciarte, but is it likely we will actually get said players in a Bryant trade? Probably not.

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  9. #54
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
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    11,105

    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    I think someone else mentioned that type of package earlier in the 1st Offseason thread and it was quickly shot down, seeing as Inciarte is injury prone and Camargo is a horrible defender.

    There’s other names on the Braves that majority in here would consider over Camargo/Inciarte, but is it likely we will actually get said players in a Bryant trade? Probably not.
    The other had Bryse Wilson instead of Fried. This is closer, but I still don’t like it because I don’t like Inciarte or Camargo at all. If you replace those 2 with Muller and IFA money or some 15-30 prospect in Atls system I think it’s right along the lines of the high end of what the Cubs can get.

  10. #55
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
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    4,627
    Reading these posts, I think you guys dig into and crunch these numbers on these players more then the guys the teams hire to do them

    LMAO

  11. #56
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
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    3,069
    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Yep, I agree. Your expectations were to high. Hell, the Cubs can argue the last 5 years they have been as good as any team in baseball, with the possible exception of the Astros (who, apparently, cheated) and yet you are disappointed. That tells me your expectations, as those of so many, were way too high. It might end this year. I get that. And I am disappointed if it does. But, IMO it doesn't have to end. Sure, they are probably not going to compete with the Dodgers, and most likely the Braves next year. But, after that, I feel they can play with anyone else in the NL, if they just make some good cheaper pick ups. I think you, me, and most Cubs fans got sucked into this dynasty idea and failed to realize how hard that actually was and just enjoy the run while it was happening. Instead of looking at it as a long run of excellent play, we looked at it as a long run of under-performing.
    Great post rcal... this has been the best 5 year run of being competitive that we’ve ever had.

  12. #57
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
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    3,069
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Service time is king today. If a team is willing to trade a superstar nearing free agency the trade cost isn’t massive. By that point the superstar is making big money so the surplus value is limited and the years of control are limited and teams aren’t nearly as aggressive to win immediately at the expense of the long term as they used to be.

    If Bryant or Betts are traded the return will be less than most people think. Just like Machado when he was dealt. People were talking about all these huge name prospects and he went for 1 guy in the back of the top 100 and a bunch of filler. Realmuto went for a top 40, a league average player, and lotto tickets. Gerrit Cole went for a bunch of mediocrity. Musgrove was top 100 at a point before that trade, but never a huge upside guy. Moran was a high pick who never played to that level, then filler. Bryant would probably get them a 55FV (prospect between 25-40ish in rankings), a 2nd interesting player who is either a prospect with legit risk and upside (maybe back of the top 100, maybe not ranked yet but moving in that direction) or a decent but not very good mlb player and a lotto ticket or two or IFA money/comp balance draft pick or something like that.
    Machado was for half a year...

    Look at Cole before going to the Astros...
    https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...125&position=P

    And Realmuto...
    https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...739&position=C

    Then look at KB and tell me you think those are comps anyone should be using...
    https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...29&position=3B

  13. #58
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    11,105

    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    Machado was for half a year...

    Look at Cole before going to the Astros...
    https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...125&position=P

    And Realmuto...
    https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...739&position=C

    Then look at KB and tell me you think those are comps anyone should be using...
    https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...29&position=3B
    Maybe you should check out your own links. Realmuto’s last 2 years in Miami had a higher fWAR than KBs last 2 here and he was scheduled to make 1/3rd the salary in 19 that KB will make in 20. Same amount of team control. Try again. That’s the single best comp for a Bryant trade that has happened in baseball in a long time.

    I wasn’t comparing Machado to Bryant in terms of service time. I used him as an example of someone who people were speculating huge trade returns on and he was traded for very little. Read better.

  14. #59
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
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    3,069
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Maybe you should check out your own links. Realmuto’s last 2 years in Miami had a higher fWAR than KBs last 2 here and he was scheduled to make 1/3rd the salary in 19 that KB will make in 20. Same amount of team control. Try again. That’s the single best comp for a Bryant trade that has happened in baseball in a long time.

    I wasn’t comparing Machado to Bryant in terms of service time. I used him as an example of someone who people were speculating huge trade returns on and he was traded for very little. Read better.
    So your argument is that Realmuto and KB are equal?

  15. #60
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    3,069
    You’re the GM of a team...

    You can have KB or Realmuto but not both.

    If you have KB, then you have a league avg catcher... if you have Realmuto, then you have a league avg 3rd baseman.

    Which one is more valuable to you?

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