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  1. #2131
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    https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/statu...484706304?s=21

    It’ll be interesting to see how this turns out. Most of you probably remember he was the first pitcher drafted by Theo’s Cubs FO.

  2. #2132
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    You and us fans may think it a big deal

    I just seem to think Theo not really overly concerned about it..

    I just dont think their plan is or was, to use Bryant 18 mil to add other pieces that would get the payroll back up to 208..

    I think subtracting that 18 mil gives them some breathing room under the threshold and at most they use around 1/3 of it to add a couple lost cost players..

    Also, they already said it causing issues, by telling agents they cant sign anyone til the Bryant situation is solved, and also saying in the beginning at the meetings , I believe it was Hoyer who said, that til it was solved they cant even sign low cost FA ..
    So, they pretty much already played their hand..
    Teams know, they're looking to move money and Bryant the guy..
    I mean if they were looking to move others to shed salary to add players, they could of done those already so they could add needed players..

    But no, cause I think it because they just want to move Bryant to get some breathing room under the threshold and stay there
    So for the sake of this discussion, if Bryant was dealt and they saved $18M, how does signing Shaw for $4M not work into exactly what you are saying. All I said was, IMO, the issue with Bryant is causing the Cubs to lose out on a guy exactly like Shaw. $4M is a very reasonable contract and that would still keep them under. I do not think they are going to deal KB and then go over the LT. I did, at one time. But all signs point to them not doing it. And even when I thought they might, it was more of a wish then what I actually believed.

  3. #2133
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    I think it's pretty apparent to everyone they're stepping back and hoping for a team that overperforms in 2020, but if they move any more than they have to, I think it's gonna be because the guys they're moving won't be helping them beyond the 2020 season and can get them a reasonable amount back. I think "having room to make a move later" is maybe 3rd or 4th on the list of reasons why they'd move someone. Mostly I have Quintana in mind.

    It really makes no sense to move Quintana for the purposes of opening salary for a move later when he's already a very economical player to have on your roster (that is, one who gives you good production at a very reasonable price). If you trade him, you're probably not going to get a better bang for your buck when you use that salary he opened up on another player.

    If they have any hopes of competing, it makes more sense to keep Quintana and then move him at the deadline if the team can't keep up.
    This too make a lot of sense. My point is that I think they will be substantially under 208 in the event that they are overachieving and would like to become buyers. If that's the case, they are going to need a cushion.

    Last year they added a significant amount of money during the season. I understand the whole Zobrist issue, but nonetheless, they added. If they need to add this year, they can't be sitting just below 208 million. I don't think there's any chance in the world they go over 208 this year.

  4. #2134
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    Quote Originally Posted by ivyboys View Post
    I think it’s because they are not going to give KB away in a trade. If they don’t get the package they see fit for him, they will look to contend next year by fielding the same roster. A rotation of Darvish, Hendricks, Lester, Mills, and Chatwood isn’t going to cut it.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I think eventually they will move KB. I also think that getting under 208 million is their priority.

  5. #2135
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    This too make a lot of sense. My point is that I think they will be substantially under 208 in the event that they are overachieving and would like to become buyers. If that's the case, they are going to need a cushion.

    Last year they added a significant amount of money during the season. I understand the whole Zobrist issue, but nonetheless, they added. If they need to add this year, they can't be sitting just below 208 million. I don't think there's any chance in the world they go over 208 this year.
    They added about $5 mil last year and that includes adding Kimbrel and subtracting Zobrist.

    I agree that they’ll end up under 208 in the end.

  6. #2136
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    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    Not to defend or condone what the Ricketts are saying or doing but the Cubs wouldn’t be a third time offender.
    But they will be a third time offender next year, if they don't get under this year. That in itself tells us that they plan on spending big next year. But they won't be able to if they don't get under this year.

    It's clear that they plan on resetting, and going hard again with a little different window.

  7. #2137
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    They added about $5 mil last year and that includes adding Kimbrel and subtracting Zobrist.

    I agree that they’ll end up under 208 in the end.
    According to Cot's, they started the season at 203 million. Add in the 21 million for minor league guys, player benefits, and 0-3 year players, and that puts them at 224 million on OD. They ended at 240 million.

    What am I not seeing?

  8. #2138
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    According to Cot's, they started the season at 203 million. Add in the 21 million for minor league guys, player benefits, and 0-3 year players, and that puts them at 224 million on OD. They ended at 240 million.

    What am I not seeing?
    Here’s the player by player breakdown (look at adjusted salary):

    https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/payroll/2019/

  9. #2139
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Here’s the player by player breakdown (look at adjusted salary):

    https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/payroll/2019/
    Not to sound obtuse, but I'm not sure what you're trying to tell me.

    Did Cot's not subtract the 9.5 million saved on Zobrist? Because at the end of the day, Cot's shows them ending at 240 million. They were also taxed at that amount. So I don't understand

    Can you tell me what OD salary you have, and what end of the season salary you have. Add in the 21 million for tax purposes.

  10. #2140
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    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Not to sound obtuse, but I'm not sure what you're trying to tell me.

    Did Cot's not subtract the 9.5 million saved on Zobrist? Because at the end of the day, Cot's shows them ending at 240 million. They were also taxed at that amount. So I don't understand

    Can you tell me what OD salary you have, and what end of the season salary you have. Add in the 21 million for tax purposes.
    I’m not sure what Cots did and I don’t have an OD salary, but if you check out the link you can add up how much salary they took on for in season additions. NC was about 2.8. Kimbrel was 10, but pretty close to offset by BZ. Phelps was 800k. Everybody else was a few hundred k or less. I didn’t add it up, just a rough estimate. Probably $5-6 mil in new money, right?

    I know you posted the other day about leaving $15 mil for in season moves, but it’s really hard to spend that much in season. If they took on Betts and Lindor and all their remaining cash on 7/31 it might be $15 mil. 5ish mil is normally enough for in season additions.

    I think this offseason they’ll cut as much as they can and then they’ll add a little along the way. I don’t think they’ll be limited to reducing to 208. If they can get to 197 or 185 or 170 making moves that they like, they’ll probably do that.
    Last edited by CP_414; 12-23-2019 at 12:07 PM.

  11. #2141
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I’m not sure what Cots did and I don’t have an OD salary, but if you check out the link you can add up how much salary they took on for in season additions. NC was about 2.8. Kimbrel was 10, but pretty close to offset by BZ. Phelps was 800k. Everybody else was a few hundred k or less. I didn’t add it up, just a rough estimate. Probably $5-6 mil in new money, right?

    I know you posted the other day about leaving $15 mil for in season moves, but it’s really hard to spend that much in season. If they took on Betts and Lindor and all their remaining on 7/31 it might be $15 mil. 5ish mil is normally enough for in season additions.

    I think this offseason they’ll cut as much as they can and then they’ll add a little along the way. I don’t think they’ll be limited to reducing to 208. If they can get to 197 or 185 or 170 making moves that they like, they’ll probably do that.
    Awesome, thanks!

  12. #2142
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    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    Not to defend or condone what the Ricketts are saying or doing but the Cubs wouldn’t be a third time offender.
    They wouldn’t be a 3rd time consecutive offender, but they would be a 3rd time offender overall if they stay above the luxury tax threshold of $208 mil (2016 & 2019 over luxury tax)

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  13. #2143
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    They wouldn’t be a 3rd time consecutive offender, but they would be a 3rd time offender overall if they stay above the luxury tax threshold of $208 mil (2016 & 2019 over luxury tax)
    But that doesn't increase the penalties. It has to be in a row. That said, I think they point was to get under this year because they know they are going over next year(or at least I hope that is the point). And if they were over this year and again next year the penalties next year would be far greater as a 3rd in a row offender then it would be for a 1st year offender.

  14. #2144
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    I think Cubboy said it in the thread over the weekend, but if Theo, Jed and Jason would have been better with drafting & developing talent (especially Pitchers), the Cubs probably wouldn't be in this position.

    To me, I think this is the biggest factor behind wanting to trade KB. I believe if the Cubs had a more highly regarded minor league system that they would be shedding salary with other players vice KB and just riding out his final two seasons under contract.

    I also believe Ricketts called Theo out on the correlation for higher salary/being in the luxury tax equaling greater success/World Series Championships. If that was the case, more teams would be in the luxury tax, right?

    ***Of the 3 teams in the Luxury Tax for 2019, only one made the playoffs (NYY) and the Yankees advanced only as far as the ALCS.***
    Last edited by Timmmahhh; 12-23-2019 at 01:03 PM. Reason: Add 2019 Tidbit

  15. #2145
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    So for the sake of this discussion, if Bryant was dealt and they saved $18M, how does signing Shaw for $4M not work into exactly what you are saying. All I said was, IMO, the issue with Bryant is causing the Cubs to lose out on a guy exactly like Shaw. $4M is a very reasonable contract and that would still keep them under. I do not think they are going to deal KB and then go over the LT. I did, at one time. But all signs point to them not doing it. And even when I thought they might, it was more of a wish then what I actually believed.
    I get you're saying they need to subtract Bryant in order to just add a 4 mil deal, I'm saying it doesn't matter because they most likely weren't planning on doing a deal like that with anyone of significant because they will use most of Bryant subtraction as a cushion under the threshold.

    I'm also not saying they wont add a player or two more eventually, but I believe they will be low cost players that would probably take up about 1/3 of Bryant salary..

    So, basically my opinion is that I just dont think Theo is overly concerned about waiting on Bryant decision or concerned about missing out on the 4+ mil FAs now because I just dont think he planned on adding anyone with that price tag.

    Right now, Sporttrac has their payroll at 211.3, so subtracting Bryant will put them at 192.8 so it gives them a little breathing room there to add a couple of very low cost players in the offseason to help fill out the roster and have extra for needed in season moves.

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