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  1. #1606
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    24,790
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    You are absolutely defending the owners. Over and over. You can say ďIím not defending them,Ē but if you follow it with 5000 words defending them then that exactly what you are doing.

    The Cubs won 95 games 2 years ago. They had a better record than every in the NL but the Brewers who tied them with 95 wins. They were under the tax.

    Theyíve spent over the tax 2 times. Once they won 84 games and had a disappointing season. The other time they won the World Series. Every season theyíve spent under the tax theyíve not won the World Series. Seems like itís not a terrible investment.
    https://imgur.com/a/GQRyFWg

    https://imgur.com/a/xjUaGGU

    Maybe take a step back and look at it in a larger sample;


    :From 2003-2017, only 8 MLB teams have surpassed the Luxury Tax.


    :Of the 30 WS participants from 2003-2017, only 7 of the 30 participants were "Luxury Tax" Teams.


    :Of the 8, 2003-2017 Luxury Tax teams, only half of those teams ever participated in a World Series during their specific "Luxury Tax" year.


    :Of those 4 teams, 3 won the Championship with Boston winning it twice.



    4 Championships over a 15 year span is hardly a great way to sell the Luxury Tax being a solid/good investment, at least IMO.

  2. #1607
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
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    11,131

    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    https://imgur.com/a/GQRyFWg

    https://imgur.com/a/xjUaGGU

    Maybe take a step back and look at it in a larger sample;


    :From 2003-2017, only 8 MLB teams have surpassed the Luxury Tax.


    :Of the 30 WS participants from 2003-2017, only 7 of the 30 participants were "Luxury Tax" Teams.


    :Of the 8, 2003-2017 Luxury Tax teams, only half of those teams ever participated in a World Series during their specific "Luxury Tax" year.


    :Of those 4 teams, 3 won the Championship with Boston winning it twice.



    4 Championships over a 15 year span is hardly a great way to sell the Luxury Tax being a solid/good investment, at least IMO.
    So 26.67% of all champions the last 15 years paid the tax? What percentage of teams paid the tax in that span? Why are we excluding 2018 and 2019?


    Edit -
    We can start in 03 when a system close to this tax system started. Since then the Red Sox won WS over the tax in 04, 07, 18. The Yankees did in 09. The Cubs did in 2016. So 5 champions in 16 years. 31.25%.

    There were 45 individual teams over the tax in this span (2016 Cubs are 1, 2019 Cubs are 2 etc). There were 510 individual seasons in this span. So 8.8% of all teams were over the tax.

    8.8% spent over the tax, 31.25% of WS champions were over the tax. Obviously youíd expect more good teams to spend more, but being over the tax is good.
    Last edited by CP_414; 12-17-2019 at 08:46 PM.

  3. #1608
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
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    13,612
    The Cubs make a signing ! Stop complaining


    https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status...101744645?s=21


    Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


    El Mago

  4. #1609
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    14,935
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    You are absolutely defending the owners. Over and over. You can say ďIím not defending them,Ē but if you follow it with 5000 words defending them then that exactly what you are doing.

    The Cubs won 95 games 2 years ago. They had a better record than every in the NL but the Brewers who tied them with 95 wins. They were under the tax.

    Theyíve spent over the tax 2 times. Once they won 84 games and had a disappointing season. The other time they won the World Series. Every season theyíve spent under the tax theyíve not won the World Series. Seems like itís not a terrible investment.
    Besides the fact the Cubs won 95 games in18, they also were 1/2 game behind the Nats as the top WC team before a 9 game losing streak late in the season. Had they gone 5-4 in those 9 games, which I believe they were winning 7 late, and if those 5, 3 were against the Cardinals, they would have either won the division or beat out the cardinals for the WC. So what would the narrative been then? Well we have to break up this team that went to the playoffs 5 years in a row. It just isnít working? Or would they have tried to add. One could argue that had they spent a little more and fit Kimbrel earlier he might have been better. They might have won by spending more.
    Personally I think that had they won they would have done this anyway. And, again, that sucks.

  5. #1610
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    Apr 2008
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    24,790
    Not sure of Kimbrel's contract, but I hope Theo & Jed are trying to talk the Yankees into taking on Kimbrel with Schwarber in any potential deal.

    Sure, they wouldn't get much in return outside of payroll relief, but it keeps KB, Baez, Rizzo & Contreras together another year and that's a big + in the deal for me.

    Even if you can't combine Kimbrel with Schwarber and admittedly, I'm not aware of Rizzo's contract terms, but I'd trade him (in a separate deal) if they could to keep KB, Baez & Contreras together. Maybe Contreras plays first?

    Maybe all just wishful thinking...



    Keep dragging your feet, Mr. Arbitrator! I don't want to see KB go
    Last edited by Timmmahhh; 12-17-2019 at 08:54 PM.

  6. #1611
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    So 26.67% of all champions the last 15 years paid the tax? What percentage of teams paid the tax in that span?
    Feel free to look it up.

  7. #1612
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Why are we excluding 2018 and 2019?
    Because Wikipedia had 2003-2017 already documented.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_...2%80%93present

  8. #1613
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    Nov 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    Feel free to look it up.
    I did. Edited above.

    I even included 2018 and 19 for you because we can do better than Wikipedia.

  9. #1614
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I did. Edited above.

    I even included 2018 and 19 for you because we can do better than Wikipedia.
    "We can do better than Wikipedia."

    Last edited by Timmmahhh; 12-17-2019 at 08:48 PM.

  10. #1615
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
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    11,131

    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    "We can do better than Wikipedia."
    Well we just did, right?

    Wikipedia didnít have 2018 and 2019. We do. We did better.

    I did make a math mistake though. So that was bad. I just edited it again. Itís actually 8.8% of teams that surpassed the tax in that window not 10%. This is a pretty basic way to look at it, but teams over the tax have been far far more likely to win it all than teams under the tax since 2003.

    To put it another way, 11.1% of all lux tax teams between 03-19 won the WS. 2.58% of non lux tax teams won the WS in the same span. Again, itís an overly basic way to look at it, but spending more money helps.
    Last edited by CP_414; 12-17-2019 at 09:04 PM.

  11. #1616
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    Apr 2008
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    24,790
    Happy Holidays Cubs Forum!


  12. #1617
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
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    3,190
    CP... youíre just insufferable. I hate to put you on ignore because you are a very knowledgeable poster but you just canít keep from arguing with people constantly. Iím done... you make this board hard to read.

  13. #1618
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    Dec 2011
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    3,190
    Nvm... I just found out the ignore feature is worthless on here...

  14. #1619
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    Jul 2011
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    Chicago
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timmmahhh View Post
    Not sure of Kimbrel's contract, but I hope Theo & Jed are trying to talk the Yankees into taking on Kimbrel with Schwarber in any potential deal.

    Sure, they wouldn't get much in return outside of payroll relief, but it keeps KB, Baez, Rizzo & Contreras together another year and that's a big + in the deal for me.

    Even if you can't combine Kimbrel with Schwarber and admittedly, I'm not aware of Rizzo's contract terms, but I'd trade him (in a separate deal) if they could to keep KB, Baez & Contreras together. Maybe Contreras plays first?

    Maybe all just wishful thinking...



    Keep dragging your feet, Mr. Arbitrator! I don't want to see KB go
    If Kimbrel had half the kind of year he usually has i bet we could've gotten a haul for him. Reliever salaries are on the rise again and his 16 mil isnt backbreaking.

  15. #1620
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    Nov 2014
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    11,131

    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by The20thK View Post
    CP... youíre just insufferable. I hate to put you on ignore because you are a very knowledgeable poster but you just canít keep from arguing with people constantly. Iím done... you make this board hard to read.
    Cool. **** off then and **** off with your baiting post.

    Yes, when people quote me to argue with my points Iíll typically respond. I try not to post any opinions that I canít support with evidence. Stupid people donít like evidence so they get angry.

    Thereís a bunch of really smart people who post interesting stuff here all the time. I like them. They make me think about things differently. Thereís also a growing handful of people who struggle with basic reading comprehension and who think an unsupported opinion is the same as a supported one. **** them. If you want to have a conversation about the Cubs, cool. Letís talk. But if you want to say stupid **** to me that you canít support, Iíll probably show you why I think you are wrong.

    If anyone whose opinion I respect wants me to leave, Iíll leave. You are very far from that group.

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