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  1. #4036
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dfan25 View Post
    What package of prospects would you guys need to take on Inciarte for the next 3 years ? Maybe the Braves push this now and if they were to take KB 18.6 clearing Inciarte 7 wouldn’t hurt them. That would get the Cubs under the LT as well.

    It would have to be a ridiculous package for me . The idea of Inciarte on this team for the next 3 years doesn’t excite me.




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    To take on Inciarte for three years, I would want Fried, Wright, and Anderson in the package.

  2. #4037
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    At least to me, it's clear that either KB, the Cubs, or both, don't want a long term deal. I think it's not even an option anymore. He has to be moved. Now, or mid season.

    Also, it's clear that they are going under the CBT. The best guy to move in order to get under is KB. I think the next best is Q.

    This season may very well be an average season for us. Hopefully, they have another 5-7 year plan in place. This one ended rather quickly.
    I agree that KB is probably getting traded, but you are the one who advocated this. This is what I’m disagreeing with...

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Just trade Q, and keep KB. See how the season plays out. If it's not going well, move KB then. If it's going well, they may have a few million to make a move at the deadline.

    Two of, Chatwood, Mills, Alzolay could manage in the rotation. It's not ideal, but if we can't get good young pitching for KB, I'd keep him and trade Q.

  3. #4038
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    The decision has already been made. They just can't move forward with their decision until the grievance is settled.

    Question. Other than a likely less return, what's the difference if they move in now or in July? As long as they're under at the end of the season, that's all that matters.
    Because of the less return. Entirely. There's just no reason to trade Q and think this is anything but a pretty not good team. So you might as well trade Bryant now, instead of then. It's highly unlikely you get more, you open up the possibility of an injury making it even less (or impossible).

    If you're trading him in July, trade him now. I know they've made their decision. I'm just saying I don't want anything to do with the "Trade Quintana, Keep Bryant and pretend this is a team who's going to overpreform" plan. It's almost assuredly a team who isn't winning a division and will need to trade Bryant anyways, for what is likely less of a return.

  4. #4039
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Because of the less return. Entirely. There's just no reason to trade Q and think this is anything but a pretty not good team. So you might as well trade Bryant now, instead of then. It's highly unlikely you get more, you open up the possibility of an injury making it even less (or impossible).

    If you're trading him in July, trade him now. I know they've made their decision. I'm just saying I don't want anything to do with the "Trade Quintana, Keep Bryant and pretend this is a team who's going to overpreform" plan. It's almost assuredly a team who isn't winning a division and will need to trade Bryant anyways, for what is likely less of a return.
    I'd much rather trade him now for the value reason. But if they can't get good value, I'd try again at the deadline. Circumstances may be different for some teams. It's not like he's a rental

  5. #4040
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I agree that KB is probably getting traded, but you are the one who advocated this. This is what I’m disagreeing with...
    You're right

  6. #4041
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    To take on Inciarte for three years, I would want Fried, Wright, and Anderson in the package.
    Maybe they'd give us some money instead of giving better prospects. Or take someone like Descalso from us haha.

  7. #4042
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    Alec Mills had a 5.11 ERA in 18 starts at AAA last year at 27 years old, and in 2018 had a 4.84 ERA in AAA the year before in 23 starts. The guy pitched great in a few starts for the Cubs. Over the course of a season he's probably going to suck harder than Q or Lester did last year.

  8. #4043
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Because of the less return. Entirely. There's just no reason to trade Q and think this is anything but a pretty not good team. So you might as well trade Bryant now, instead of then. It's highly unlikely you get more, you open up the possibility of an injury making it even less (or impossible).

    If you're trading him in July, trade him now. I know they've made their decision. I'm just saying I don't want anything to do with the "Trade Quintana, Keep Bryant and pretend this is a team who's going to overpreform" plan. It's almost assuredly a team who isn't winning a division and will need to trade Bryant anyways, for what is likely less of a return.
    First, I do think Bryant gets traded. Second, if he is not, IMO, he must be extended. The return will be worse if they wait. I agree with you on those points. Where I disagree is the idea that the team will be “not good” if they traded Q instead. In a scenario where Q is dealt for the best bench bat they can find and they save $6M to $7m, then trade Contreras for the best young pitcher they can get who is ready now and a prospect, IMO, that team competes for the division. With the extra money they saved between those two trades maybe they get another bench bat.
    They would need Happ and Schwarber to step up. And also need production from second base. And Caratini would have to prove to be an every day starter. But I do not feel any of those things is unrealistic.

  9. #4044
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    First, I do think Bryant gets traded. Second, if he is not, IMO, he must be extended. The return will be worse if they wait. I agree with you on those points. Where I disagree is the idea that the team will be “not good” if they traded Q instead. In a scenario where Q is dealt for the best bench bat they can find and they save $6M to $7m, then trade Contreras for the best young pitcher they can get who is ready now and a prospect, IMO, that team competes for the division. With the extra money they saved between those two trades maybe they get another bench bat.
    They would need Happ and Schwarber to step up. And also need production from second base. And Caratini would have to prove to be an every day starter. But I do not feel any of those things is unrealistic.
    First, what team has a young, MLB ready pitcher they're trading for a catcher right now? It's easy to say to do this, but I can't find a realistic trade there. The Rockies, maybe, but who knows what they're doing. Teams like the Braves have long since addressed the position. Many teams are too late into FA to just go replace a SP. I think you're trading Contreras for prospects today. Not MLB ready. Your rotation is probably 40% Mills/Chatwood.

    Secondly, your bench is atrocious. You're basically running with Almora, some terrible back up C, a Mark Zagunis type....so you have probably only exacerbated the 1100 PAs given to sub replacement level players last year. The bullpen might take 3 weeks or 3 months to sort out.

    Almost assuredly that plan right now results in a mediocre to bad team who can't win a division, and then trades Bryant for a lesser return. Why the Cubs can't find value for Bryant today but can't magically deal Contreras easily for an MLB ready arm is also beyond me. Also the idea that somehow in three months Bryant's value will also just suddenly be there is a bit head scratching too. I don't buy the "teams will get desperate" story as there will be other, cheaper, 3b options to fall back on still.

    It all comes back to the same spot. The Cubs can't really keep Bryant and do nothing. It's the worst of all options. For it to even have a chance of working you have to rely on too many things. Yeah, in a world it could work, but it's how realistic is that world? I find it pretty far fetched at this juncture. For that plan to really have worked it would have needed to be done far earlier. They could have used the money to replace Quintana in some way and bought a bench. It's too late in the game for much of that.

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    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 01-22-2020 at 07:50 AM.

  10. #4045
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    First, what team has a young, MLB ready pitcher they're trading for a catcher right now? It's easy to say to do this, but I can't find a realistic trade there. The Rockies, maybe, but who knows what they're doing. Teams like the Braves have long since addressed the position. Many teams are too late into FA to just go replace a SP. I think you're trading Contreras for prospects today. Not MLB ready. Your rotation is probably 40% Mills/Chatwood.

    Secondly, your bench is atrocious. You're basically running with Almora, some terrible back up C, a Mark Zagunis type....so you have probably only exacerbated the 1100 PAs given to sub replacement level players last year. The bullpen might take 3 weeks or 3 months to sort out.

    Almost assuredly that plan right now results in a mediocre to bad team who can't win a division, and then trades Bryant for a lesser return. Why the Cubs can't find value for Bryant today but can't magically deal Contreras easily for an MLB ready arm is also beyond me. Also the idea that somehow in three months Bryant's value will also just suddenly be there is a bit head scratching too. I don't buy the "teams will get desperate" story as there will be other, cheaper, 3b options to fall back on still.

    It all comes back to the same spot. The Cubs can't really keep Bryant and do nothing. It's the worst of all options. For it to even have a chance of working you have to rely on too many things. Yeah, in a world it could work, but it's how realistic is that world? I find it pretty far fetched at this juncture. For that plan to really have worked it would have needed to be done far earlier. They could have used the money to replace Quintana in some way and bought a bench. It's too late in the game for much of that.

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    Did you even read my post or just want to talk? You keep mentioning his crazy the idea is that Bryant will be more valuable at the deadline. I never said that. In fact I absolutely said if they do not trade him they must extend him.
    I added that if they trade Q they MUST get a bench bat. So that goes towards your comment if the terrible bench. I agree with you, it has to get better. And finally we get to Contreras. None of us knows if something has been discussed for him and is close. You do not know they can’t get a ready young arm for him. Personally, I absolutely feel they can. And a good one at that.
    Oh, and then I also said they can add ANOTHER bench bat with the money they saved on Q and Contreras trades. Go ahead and tell us how that team will be terrible and how this can’t happen. But at least argue against what I actually said. Bench would be 2 guys not here now(trade and FA), Phegley, eventually either Bote or Hoerner and then you get to Almora.

  11. #4046
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Did you even read my post or just want to talk? You keep mentioning his crazy the idea is that Bryant will be more valuable at the deadline. I never said that. In fact I absolutely said if they do not trade him they must extend him.
    I added that if they trade Q they MUST get a bench bat. So that goes towards your comment if the terrible bench. I agree with you, it has to get better. And finally we get to Contreras. None of us knows if something has been discussed for him and is close. You do not know they can’t get a ready young arm for him. Personally, I absolutely feel they can. And a good one at that.
    Oh, and then I also said they can add ANOTHER bench bat with the money they saved on Q and Contreras trades. Go ahead and tell us how that team will be terrible and how this can’t happen. But at least argue against what I actually said. Bench would be 2 guys not here now(trade and FA), Phegley, eventually either Bote or Hoerner and then you get to Almora.
    First off, where's the hostility coming from?

    Secondly, that's not a good team. Again, who's the "young pitcher" you speak of. It's really easy to just say it, what's the team that's trading for him? It's so easy to say "I feel they can". But where? Where's the player? With Bryant we can speculate teams a hell of a lot easier. The Dodgers are out with their catching prospect. The Braves are addressed. The Twins are addressed. The White Sox. Nationals. The Yankees. The Astros. The Phillies. The Cardinals. The Angels have no young pitching that matches a criteria. The Diamondbacks (let's just use them because they were mentioned for Bryant) don't have young arms ready for the MLB right now. Almost all of the teams we're saying needed to address Bryant have a catcher. So it leaves you with who? I don't think a bad team wants a player about to hit arbitration. As dead as catching is, the good teams are generally taken care of there, the bad teams won't necessarily want him. So you have maybe the Rays? The Reds? But then you're not helping any chance of winning a division. I think the market for Contreras is a very murky one. Honestly? I feel they can't trade him at this point of the offseason for an MLB ready arm. You can trade him, but you're not getting back an arm who's replacing Quintana now.

    I'm arguing against what you said. I said it was a bad plan for a 2020 winner even if you extend Bryant. I'm all for extending Bryant, but that's not a good team. I'd say at best it's an 82 win team. I think it's more like a 78-80 win team. You're probably trotting out Chatwood/Mills 40% of the time as I don't think there's a young pitcher you can just trade for right now for Contreras. I think Happ in CF is rife to bust. 2b isn't strong. C could be fine, might not be, hard to tell if Caratini is a true starter there. The bench is horrible, even if you spend a little money on it (the options are pretty thin right now). Phegley is barely above replacement. Almora is replacement. I don't see anything all that enticing on the FA or trade market for a bench bat right now. You're probably getting more Phegley types. The BP is a major questionmark. It took this team until August to begin to figure out guys like Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan. A different management team, sure, but they have no leeway this year to fart around and get it wrong for 3 months. With the amount of randoms they have, I think there's a decent bullpen somewhere but it isn't very clear right now, and I don't think it's going to sort out quick.

    If you'd like to squint and see a team who can compete for the division have at it. I don't agree. I'd peg the Reds at 88 or so wins right now. The Cardinals around that same level. I think that Cubs team more than likely is sitting distant enough in July around 3/4th that you sell off a few more parts (Lester, perhaps some BP arms) and give up. It's also one that is probably close enough to the tax lines where adding mid season won't be very easy (you probably spend half of what you save on Contreras/Quintana on the 2 bench bats leaving the Cubs very limited on the tax spending).

    I think the Cubs could have competed in 2020. I think we've gone past that barrier and with the self imposed spending limits and the inaction to this point on Bryant. You can trade Quintana still, but I just don't think trading Conteras is going to fix much with what they can/can't/won't do and what they can/can't get in late January. Just trade Quintana, go under the self imposed spending limits (if we're extending Bryant), and keep Contreras at that point.

    In the end it's moot. The Cubs almost assuredly aren't extending Bryant. Which means the only way the above plan can happen is if they just don't trade him this offseason. Which means it's bad all the way around.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 01-22-2020 at 10:10 AM.

  12. #4047
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    First off, where's the hostility coming from?

    Secondly, that's not a good team. Again, who's the "young pitcher" you speak of. It's really easy to just say it, what's the team that's trading for him? It's so easy to say "I feel they can". But where? Where's the player? With Bryant we can speculate teams a hell of a lot easier. The Dodgers are out with their catching prospect. The Braves are addressed. The Twins are addressed. The White Sox. Nationals. The Yankees. The Astros. The Phillies. The Cardinals. The Angels have no young pitching that matches a criteria. The Diamondbacks (let's just use them because they were mentioned for Bryant) don't have young arms ready for the MLB right now. Almost all of the teams we're saying needed to address Bryant have a catcher. So it leaves you with who? I don't think a bad team wants a player about to hit arbitration. As dead as catching is, the good teams are generally taken care of there, the bad teams won't necessarily want him. So you have maybe the Rays? The Reds? But then you're not helping any chance of winning a division. I think the market for Contreras is a very murky one. Honestly? I feel they can't trade him at this point of the offseason for an MLB ready arm. You can trade him, but you're not getting back an arm who's replacing Quintana now.

    I'm arguing against what you said. I said it was a bad plan for a 2020 winner even if you extend Bryant. I'm all for extending Bryant, but that's not a good team. I'd say at best it's an 82 win team. I think it's more like a 78-80 win team. You're probably trotting out Chatwood/Mills 40% of the time as I don't think there's a young pitcher you can just trade for right now for Contreras. I think Happ in CF is rife to bust. 2b isn't strong. C could be fine, might not be, hard to tell if Caratini is a true starter there. The bench is horrible, even if you spend a little money on it (the options are pretty thin right now). Phegley is barely above replacement. Almora is replacement. I don't see anything all that enticing on the FA or trade market for a bench bat right now. You're probably getting more Phegley types. The BP is a major questionmark. It took this team until August to begin to figure out guys like Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan. A different management team, sure, but they have no leeway this year to fart around and get it wrong for 3 months. With the amount of randoms they have, I think there's a decent bullpen somewhere but it isn't very clear right now, and I don't think it's going to sort out quick.

    If you'd like to squint and see a team who can compete for the division have at it. I don't agree. I'd peg the Reds at 88 or so wins right now. The Cardinals around that same level. I think that Cubs team more than likely is sitting distant enough in July around 3/4th that you sell off a few more parts (Lester, perhaps some BP arms) and give up. It's also one that is probably close enough to the tax lines where adding mid season won't be very easy (you probably spend half of what you save on Contreras/Quintana on the 2 bench bats leaving the Cubs very limited on the tax spending).

    I think the Cubs could have competed in 2020. I think we've gone past that barrier and with the self imposed spending limits and the inaction to this point on Bryant. You can trade Quintana still, but I just don't think trading Conteras is going to fix much with what they can/can't/won't do and what they can/can't get in late January. Just trade Quintana, go under the self imposed spending limits (if we're extending Bryant), and keep Contreras at that point.
    So, just curious. Did you take out your comments about if they don't trade Bryant now what makes anyone think they will get more later, to then respond to me. Because that was in the original response. That was what upset me to get the reply you got. And suddenly I do not see it. I think you know that was what set me off so you took it out.

    Other than that, we can agree to disagree. I do not know all the teams in the league. But I absolutely feel there is a team that will take Contreras and get back a solid young starter. I don't know all the starting catchers in the league, but I have a hard time believing a team wouldn't put aside a guy they have pegged to start to get Willy in the line up. The Braves for one. And I do not care who they have there now. Why wouldn't they trade either Fried, Anderson, Wright, or Newsome in a deal for Willy. Are you going to tell me Flowers is who they would rather have there? The Angels are another example. Could the Cubs get someone like Canning in a deal for Willy? Is that unrealistic. I just do not like when people rule reasonable suggestions out of hand because no specific player is mentioned. If you go with surplus value and work a trade based on that, I am sure there are many teams that would want Willy and have enough younger arms to give up to get him. And just because it hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean it can't happen with one call.
    There is still enough out there, and this team as it stands is still good enough to be a mid to high 80 wins team, if they made a few good moves and a few things panned out for them. And if they did trade Q and Willy, at least they would have a young arm towards the future.
    We can end this now (if you want) and just disagree. I think the end result will be a Bryant trade anyway.

  13. #4048
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    So, just curious. Did you take out your comments about if they don't trade Bryant now what makes anyone think they will get more later, to then respond to me. Because that was in the original response. That was what upset me to get the reply you got. And suddenly I do not see it. I think you know that was what set me off so you took it out.

    Other than that, we can agree to disagree. I do not know all the teams in the league. But I absolutely feel there is a team that will take Contreras and get back a solid young starter. I don't know all the starting catchers in the league, but I have a hard time believing a team wouldn't put aside a guy they have pegged to start to get Willy in the line up. The Braves for one. And I do not care who they have there now. Why wouldn't they trade either Fried, Anderson, Wright, or Newsome in a deal for Willy. Are you going to tell me Flowers is who they would rather have there? The Angels are another example. Could the Cubs get someone like Canning in a deal for Willy? Is that unrealistic. I just do not like when people rule reasonable suggestions out of hand because no specific player is mentioned. If you go with surplus value and work a trade based on that, I am sure there are many teams that would want Willy and have enough younger arms to give up to get him. And just because it hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean it can't happen with one call.
    There is still enough out there, and this team as it stands is still good enough to be a mid to high 80 wins team, if they made a few good moves and a few things panned out for them. And if they did trade Q and Willy, at least they would have a young arm towards the future.
    We can end this now (if you want) and just disagree. I think the end result will be a Bryant trade anyway.
    Rcal, my original post is literally unedited. I haven't touched it. I touched the post you have directly responded to a few times. But not the original. I have no idea what set you off. When I was speaking to Bryant I was speaking to the unlikely nature of him being extended and the original post where all of this started from, thaw's, not you saying it specifically.

    The Braves are not one. They have Flowers. They have D'Arnaud. They just signed both this offseason. They're not going to trade Fried for Contreras. They're also a team who has prioritized defense first behind the plate. So no, the Braves are not trading him for Contreras at this point. In November? Maybe. But they didn't just commit $10m to two players to then trade Max Fried for Contereas. That's the issue. The teams who would have traded for him in November have largely addressed the position. The Angels already have no SP. They're not trading Canning to fill one hole and create another. Again, maybe if they got Gerrit Cole we could talk there. Or if the market still had secondary arms like Wheeler/Kuechel and the likes to replace him with. But my guess is that's largely unreasonable.

    I honestly do not see very many teams who have MLB ready arms today who are trading them for Contreras.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 01-22-2020 at 10:42 AM.

  14. #4049
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    The sooner us fans realize that the number one goal of this off season is to get under the CBT, the easier it's going to be to except the team they march out there every day. At this very moment, what the roster looks like is not a priority. Once KB is gone, they'll worry about that.

    The best way to get under is to trade the best guy on the team, who is not going to be here after 2021. He accomplishes both a salary dump, and a good return for the very near future. And ideally, the present. And just in case they compete, it leaves plenty of financial space to add at the deadline.

  15. #4050
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Rcal, my original post is literally unedited. I haven't touched it. I touched the post you have directly responded to a few times. But not the original. I have no idea what set you off. When I was speaking to Bryant I was speaking to the unlikely nature of him being extended and the original post where all of this started from, thaw's, not you saying it specifically.

    The Braves are not one. They have Flowers. They have D'Arnaud. They just signed both this offseason. They're not going to trade Fried for Contreras. They're also a team who has prioritized defense first behind the plate. So no, the Braves are not trading him for Contreras at this point. In November? Maybe. But they didn't just commit $10m to two players to then trade Max Fried for Contereas. That's the issue. The teams who would have traded for him in November have largely addressed the position. The Angels already have no SP. They're not trading Canning to fill one hole and create another. Again, maybe if they got Gerrit Cole we could talk there. Or if the market still had secondary arms like Wheeler/Kuechel and the likes to replace him with. But my guess is that's largely unreasonable.

    I honestly do not see very many teams who have MLB ready arms today who are trading them for Contreras.
    Read your original again. You did say something about the idea of not trading him now and then suddenly in 3 months teams would want him. I see it is still there. (my bad) That is what frustrated me, because you used my response to answer. I do see now that was more to thawv then me. Reading it attached to me just made me feel you were putting words in my mouth. But we are all good.
    We just disagree on if the team can still compete in 20' if they extended Bryant and traded Q. I think they can with a Willy trade for a guy ready now and you do not see any Willy options.
    Either way, if they do extend Bryant and do want to get guys beyond 21' they will need to trade Willy. Whether it is for a guy now or a guy later, they need a high end pitcher going forward. So, IMO if they are going to deal Q to get under they might as well also trade Willy. Even if it doesn't work to compete in 2020 I needs to work to compete beyond 21'.

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