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  1. #2386
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Not trolling, I promise, just our board is quite slow this time of year, and our team isn't doing **** this off-season, so I'm wandering looking for discussions lol. Rcal, hope you and your family had a nice holiday! And Happy New Year!




    According to Cot's, the Cubs are $2.05M over the first luxury tax, but have $15M before they hit the next tier. Obviously, the Cubs have the money to blow past that next threshold, and it wouldn't matter much. But, in my opinion, the Cubs will want to be able to start giving out extensions to guys like Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, etc in order to extend this window. So this is the best year to get under the tax, and then blow past it next off-season, and start extending people and spending in free agency and prepare for the next CBA.

    I don't think Bryant has as great of a surplus value as probably a lot of Cubs fans would believe. He is probably going to be paid roughly $40M over the next two seasons, and while that isn't enough to break a team, that is a lot of money for a team to absorb entirely, and give up top prospects for.

    I feel like Bryant is a safe bet to be a 4 win player each of the next two seasons. While he certainly has 6 win upside, his 2018 can't be ignored when projecting him, and he didn't get back to his former 6 win self this year.

    So I see him as a 2 year, $40M investment for basically 8 wins. So basically, $40M in surplus value.

    There have been 3 recent 4 win caliber players this off-season and last that were moved with 2 years of control.

    JT Realmuto, James Paxton, and Tommy Pham.

    For Realmuto, and that is a position of great scarcity, and Realmuto is arguably the best player at his position. The Marlins got back the 21st best prospect (MLB.com), a 1 win catcher with 5 years of control and upside (was a top 50-75 prospect a year earlier) and an outside the top 30 prospect. I would consider this the best case for the Cubs in a return for Bryant, but I do think that is pretty unlikely. Realmuto being considered the best catcher in the game at the time of the trade, while Bryant is probably considered around the 5th best third basemen. Even after Donaldson signs, I don't think any team has to go for broke to get him to fill their 3B need.

    For Paxton, the Yankees received the 31st best prospect (MLB.com), along with their 11th best prospect, and an outside the top 30 prospect

    And for Pham, the Rays received the 72nd best prospect, along with an all-or nothing 1-3 win corner outfielder with 4 years of control.

    And each, Paxton, Realmtuo, and Pham make way less in their last two years of service time than Bryant will.

    If we take the median of all three trades, that is the 41st best prospect, plus a 4-5 years of control 1-3 win player with upside, and a prospect outside of the organizations top 30.

    From the Braves for example, that would be Wright (35), Camargo, and some guy we've never heard of (as a comparable). You could also mess around with something where you get maybe Newcomb who would slot immediately into the rotation.

    I'd say that's your median baseline for a Bryant trade. We can argue that Bryant is maybe a little better than these guys, and I wouldn't argue with you. But you have to take into account his salary, which is the only reason the Cubs are even considering moving him. Moving him, allows the Cubs to easily get below the luxury tax threshold, still sign someone like Will Harris to a 1 or a 2 year deal, and keep a top lineup in the NL Central.

    But, if the Cubs think Bryant can be extended, then move Daniel Descalso and throw in a mid level just to get under the tax, and ignore it all. Or move Q in a separate deal.

    But the benefit of moving Bryant is that you can both get under the tax, sign some free agents, and get likely cost controlled pitching added to the farm and not kill the team in the short term.
    Hi Jeffy. Thank you. Happy Holiday's to you and your family as well. I agree you are not trolling. You just love talking baseball. But you do talk with an extreme slant towards the Cardinals. So you are also going to point to the worst case scenario and find resources that back your belief while ignoring those that do not. Frankly that is what most fans do, if they even decide to research what they are saying. Honestly I respect that more than just someone coming here with baseless comments and then getting mad when people prove their comments to be baseless.
    That said, I believe you are a bit lean on Bryant. I think it is much more like Wright or Anderson and Riley. And then a 3rd piece that probably will be either a high risk high reward guy or a low risk low ceiling guy. Someone young and who we will not have heard of, or as CP has suggested, maybe some international money.
    Hell, if you believe the report out of Atlanta the Cubs are asking the Braves to pick 3 of Anderson Wright, Riley or Waters. While I find that a reach, I guess it depends on exactly how much the Braves want Bryant and how much the Cubs are anxious to trade him. I think you are also a bit low on Bryant and his WAR the next 2 years. To suggest you cannot dismiss 2018 is a perfect example of you using a stat that proves your point, even though he was injured that year and missed a lot of games and in others played while obviously being injured. I think it is perfectly reasonable of those discussing Bryant and what to expect from him the next 2 years to dismiss 2018.
    I would think when the Cubs are discussing Bryant they are absolutely dismissing 2018. And when doing that, he is a pretty safe bet to be a 5WAR ballplayer, if kept at 3rd base. I actually think he was a 6WAR ballplayer until 2018 when he had an injury filled year. Last year he fell a little short of 5WAR but that was playing a lot of outfield.

    I believe the Cubs will trae Bryant once the grievance is settled. But if all Atlanta is offering is what you are suggesting, I think he will not be in Atlanta next year. I doubt the Cubs get their wish of 3 of the 4 that were mentioned. I think it will be close to what CP is suggesting, Riley and Wright and a small third piece. But for me, the 3rd piece would be Wilson. That might be a high get for Bryant, but IMO, if the Cubs do not get something like that, there will not be an Atlanta deal.

  2. #2387
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Hi Jeffy. Thank you. Happy Holiday's to you and your family as well. I agree you are not trolling. You just love talking baseball. But you do talk with an extreme slant towards the Cardinals. So you are also going to point to the worst case scenario and find resources that back your belief while ignoring those that do not. Frankly that is what most fans do, if they even decide to research what they are saying. Honestly I respect that more than just someone coming here with baseless comments and then getting mad when people prove their comments to be baseless.
    That said, I believe you are a bit lean on Bryant. I think it is much more like Wright or Anderson and Riley. And then a 3rd piece that probably will be either a high risk high reward guy or a low risk low ceiling guy. Someone young and who we will not have heard of, or as CP has suggested, maybe some international money.
    Hell, if you believe the report out of Atlanta the Cubs are asking the Braves to pick 3 of Anderson Wright, Riley or Waters. While I find that a reach, I guess it depends on exactly how much the Braves want Bryant and how much the Cubs are anxious to trade him. I think you are also a bit low on Bryant and his WAR the next 2 years. To suggest you cannot dismiss 2018 is a perfect example of you using a stat that proves your point, even though he was injured that year and missed a lot of games and in others played while obviously being injured. I think it is perfectly reasonable of those discussing Bryant and what to expect from him the next 2 years to dismiss 2018.
    I would think when the Cubs are discussing Bryant they are absolutely dismissing 2018. And when doing that, he is a pretty safe bet to be a 5WAR ballplayer, if kept at 3rd base. I actually think he was a 6WAR ballplayer until 2018 when he had an injury filled year. Last year he fell a little short of 5WAR but that was playing a lot of outfield.

    I believe the Cubs will trae Bryant once the grievance is settled. But if all Atlanta is offering is what you are suggesting, I think he will not be in Atlanta next year. I doubt the Cubs get their wish of 3 of the 4 that were mentioned. I think it will be close to what CP is suggesting, Riley and Wright and a small third piece. But for me, the 3rd piece would be Wilson. That might be a high get for Bryant, but IMO, if the Cubs do not get something like that, there will not be an Atlanta deal.
    If Atlanta's really offered 5/125, then KB won't be going to ATL anyway. That being said, I do believe some teams will count injuries against KB when building their offers. Availability is a huge deal.

  3. #2388
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfoley89 View Post
    If Atlanta's really offered 5/125, then KB won't be going to ATL anyway. That being said, I do believe some teams will count injuries against KB when building their offers. Availability is a huge deal.
    But the Cubs will want to get value for him as he is when healthy. The 2018 season he was not healthy and that cost him a lot of production. To add that WAR as if it was a complete season is not fair when determining his yearly ďhealthyĒ value. As for the idea of Donaldson for 5 years averaging $25M over those 5 years or Bryant for 2 averaging maybe $22M over those years, Bryant is still a much better buy.

  4. #2389
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    But the Cubs will want to get value for him as he is when healthy. The 2018 season he was not healthy and that cost him a lot of production. To add that WAR as if it was a complete season is not fair when determining his yearly ďhealthyĒ value. As for the idea of Donaldson for 5 years averaging $25M over those 5 years or Bryant for 2 averaging maybe $22M over those years, Bryant is still a much better buy.
    And itís not close.

    Itís pretty amazing how far the market has moved if thatís what 34 year old Donaldson gets. I thought heíd get 3 years at less than $70 million.

  5. #2390
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    I very much doubt Atlanta offered him 5/125. If that's the case, he would have signed right then.

  6. #2391
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    And itís not close.

    Itís pretty amazing how far the market has moved if thatís what 34 year old Donaldson gets. I thought heíd get 3 years at less than $70 million.
    Agreed. And if anything, the Braves offering that (if they really did) raises KBís value. If a team is going to agree to commit 5 years to a 34 yr old thirdbaseman, who might be equal to a 27 yr old thirdbaseman they can have for less years and a lower average salary, and have him while he is still in his prime, I have to think that guy in his prime will cost a lot in the way of assets. If anything, IMO, this raises the return for Bryant from whatever team wants him. And, if Atlanta does get JD, I have to think that raises the need for KB with the Nationals, Phillies and even the Dodgers.

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I very much doubt Atlanta offered him 5/125. If that's the case, he would have signed right then.
    Agreed. I can see 4/$100, but a 5th is hard to believe.

  7. #2392
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I very much doubt Atlanta offered him 5/125. If that's the case, he would have signed right then.
    Yeah this just doesnít sound like something the Braves would do. I know Anthopolus is probably one of more aggressive GMís that Atlanta has ever had (and in MLB for that matter), plus he was running the Blue Jays during Donaldsonís prime years, but again I donít see it. I mean the biggest contract Atlanta has ever given out was 8/135 to Freeman. Acuna got 8/100, and years ago Chipper got 6/90. I canít see them doing that for Donaldson. With that being said, I can see Anthopolus making a big trade, because heís not afraid to make moves to win - heís traded Roy Halladay, heís traded for Donaldson, David Price, Dickey, Jose Reyes, and Tulo just to name a few in his Toronto days - so heís not afraid to pull the trigger on big players.


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  8. #2393
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    I'm just going from the rumors reported by Bowden/Phillips mentioned on the previous page. Doesn't mean it's true, but it could mean they're willing to pay heavily at one position to avoid meeting the Cubs price. Almost every major contract has been significantly higher than I thought, and they were tied to Arenado with his mammoth extension. The Braves resigning Donaldson is a worst case scenario for the Cubs

  9. #2394
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfoley89 View Post
    I'm just going from the rumors reported by Bowden/Phillips mentioned on the previous page. Doesn't mean it's true, but it could mean they're willing to pay heavily at one position to avoid meeting the Cubs price. Almost every major contract has been significantly higher than I thought, and they were tied to Arenado with his mammoth extension. The Braves resigning Donaldson is a worst case scenario for the Cubs
    I mean I havenít see the reports from Bowden or Phillips, but I take yallís word that theyíre out there. I say this because if there was a lot of smoke around that, every reporter would be running with that story and I just canít seem to find any reports on 5/125. Also like thaw said, if that was on the table, Donaldson would likely already be a Brave.

    Btw, I donít buy the Arenado to Atlanta rumors. I know baseball is more profitable than itís ever been and thereís more money than ever in the game (like SD giving Machado $300 mil), but thatís just not a contract I see Atlanta doing. In my previous post I said that the highest contract Atlanta has ever given was 8/135 for Freeman. I guess itís possible, but I donít believe they would do that.


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  10. #2395
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    Quote Originally Posted by ivyboys View Post
    Yeah this just doesnít sound like something the Braves would do. I know Anthopolus is probably one of more aggressive GMís that Atlanta has ever had (and in MLB for that matter), plus he was running the Blue Jays during Donaldsonís prime years, but again I donít see it. I mean the biggest contract Atlanta has ever given out was 8/135 to Freeman. Acuna got 8/100, and years ago Chipper got 6/90. I canít see them doing that for Donaldson. With that being said, I can see Anthopolus making a big trade, because heís not afraid to make moves to win - heís traded Roy Halladay, heís traded for Donaldson, David Price, Dickey, Jose Reyes, and Tulo just to name a few in his Toronto days - so heís not afraid to pull the trigger on big players.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    This is true, but he also spent time in the Dodgers FO in between his Toronto days and his Atlanta days. The combination of watching a few of those big Jays deals backfire and seeing up close how LA hoards prospects might have changed him a little.

  11. #2396
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    This is true, but he also spent time in the Dodgers FO in between his Toronto days and his Atlanta days. The combination of watching a few of those big Jays deals backfire and seeing up close how LA hoards prospects might have changed him a little.
    Itís possible. Neither way has resulted in a World Series ring though. Maybe he tries to find that middle ground of being aggressive, but smarter as well. He was aggressive at the deadline this year in adding relievers, he paid up for Donaldson on a 1 year deal, and he was pretty aggressive to start this offseason. I know trading top prospects for a star player is a whole different ballgame, but his track record says he isnít afraid too. Like you said, maybe getting burned on some of those Toronto deals and then seeing how LAD does things has changed the way he operates. Time will tell.


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  12. #2397
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    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Happy new year later on tonight guys. Hope you all have a safe night. Two words if any of you go out: designated driver.

    It was ours a few hours ago.

  13. #2398
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Agreed. And if anything, the Braves offering that (if they really did) raises KBís value. If a team is going to agree to commit 5 years to a 34 yr old thirdbaseman, who might be equal to a 27 yr old thirdbaseman they can have for less years and a lower average salary, and have him while he is still in his prime, I have to think that guy in his prime will cost a lot in the way of assets. If anything, IMO, this raises the return for Bryant from whatever team wants him. And, if Atlanta does get JD, I have to think that raises the need for KB with the Nationals, Phillies and even the Dodgers.



    Agreed. I can see 4/$100, but a 5th is hard to believe.
    Because of his age and the market before FA started this off season, I had his him signing a 2/45 deal. Or even a 3/65.

    I wouldn't want to be a NL team that signs him for more than 3 years.

  14. #2399
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    https://twitter.com/sahadevsharma/st...908384771?s=21

    Sharma made some predictions. It includes KB being traded to either Washington (who he said sources indicate are planning to push for KB) or Atlanta. He also mentioned Carlos Asuaje as a Cubs target to share time at 2b. Asuaje is terrible and was cut by his team in Korea before coming back and putting up a 81 wRC+ in AAA last year.

    Real exciting stuff.

  15. #2400
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Hi Jeffy. Thank you. Happy Holiday's to you and your family as well. I agree you are not trolling. You just love talking baseball. But you do talk with an extreme slant towards the Cardinals. So you are also going to point to the worst case scenario and find resources that back your belief while ignoring those that do not. Frankly that is what most fans do, if they even decide to research what they are saying. Honestly I respect that more than just someone coming here with baseless comments and then getting mad when people prove their comments to be baseless.
    That said, I believe you are a bit lean on Bryant. I think it is much more like Wright or Anderson and Riley. And then a 3rd piece that probably will be either a high risk high reward guy or a low risk low ceiling guy. Someone young and who we will not have heard of, or as CP has suggested, maybe some international money.
    Hell, if you believe the report out of Atlanta the Cubs are asking the Braves to pick 3 of Anderson Wright, Riley or Waters. While I find that a reach, I guess it depends on exactly how much the Braves want Bryant and how much the Cubs are anxious to trade him. I think you are also a bit low on Bryant and his WAR the next 2 years. To suggest you cannot dismiss 2018 is a perfect example of you using a stat that proves your point, even though he was injured that year and missed a lot of games and in others played while obviously being injured. I think it is perfectly reasonable of those discussing Bryant and what to expect from him the next 2 years to dismiss 2018.
    I would think when the Cubs are discussing Bryant they are absolutely dismissing 2018. And when doing that, he is a pretty safe bet to be a 5WAR ballplayer, if kept at 3rd base. I actually think he was a 6WAR ballplayer until 2018 when he had an injury filled year. Last year he fell a little short of 5WAR but that was playing a lot of outfield.

    I believe the Cubs will trae Bryant once the grievance is settled. But if all Atlanta is offering is what you are suggesting, I think he will not be in Atlanta next year. I doubt the Cubs get their wish of 3 of the 4 that were mentioned. I think it will be close to what CP is suggesting, Riley and Wright and a small third piece. But for me, the 3rd piece would be Wilson. That might be a high get for Bryant, but IMO, if the Cubs do not get something like that, there will not be an Atlanta deal.
    Yeah, I don't see him getting moved until both Donaldson sign and the greivence is resolved.

    I don't see any comparable trades that would justify Wright, Anderson, and Riley. I think even getting 2 of those 3 would be an overpay, much less all 3.

    Do you have any comparable trades that you feel would justify that sort of a price?

    Wright is around the 35th best prospect, that has a surplus value between $20-40M
    Anderson is around the 31st best prospect, that has a surplus value between $20-40M
    Riley, while no longer a prospect, was the 43rd best prospect a year ago, and played half a year with mixed results. He has a surplus value between $20-40M

    Bryant. His best value would be as an 11 win player and be paid $40M. That's a surplus value of around $60M. And as a 4 win player, it's closer to $30M. So if we take the median value, that's $45M in surplus value.

    I don't see how you could justify all 3 in a trade. I can see 2 of them, but that feels like a best case scenario when evaluating Bryant and treating him as a 5.5 win player each of the next two years.

    Are there trades that you feel show this?

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