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  1. #2371
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluefire View Post
    Keeping Bryant now means probably letting him walk in two years. If that is the case then the Cubs better push their chips in now and go for it for the next two seasons. With that said, I'm still on the Cubs will eventually trade Bryant bandwagon.

    -------

    Not even slightly mad about Shogo. At best, he's going to be JAG.
    I think that's a pretty low read on Shogo to say at best he's a JAG. I think realistically he could be anywhere between a legitimate leadoff type for a year or two who offers decent CF defense to being a bust. I think he's probably going to settle in as around being a Nori Aoki type. He was someone who offered 2 fWar years his first three seasons. That's low-level starter. I think 1.5 - 2 fWAR as a 400 PA guy sounds about right. That'd be well above "JAG" status in my estimation. He won't be a superstar, but I think he will be a useful MLB contributor.

    That said I'm not overly upset we missed on him. Or didn't sign him. More the reasoning of "we have no money!". There should always be money from a large market for Shogo Akiyama types. Find it in the banana stand if need be.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  2. #2372
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    Dec 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    I think that's a pretty low read on Shogo to say at best he's a JAG. I think realistically he could be anywhere between a legitimate leadoff type for a year or two who offers decent CF defense to being a bust. I think he's probably going to settle in as around being a Nori Aoki type. He was someone who offered 2 fWar years his first three seasons. That's low-level starter. I think 1.5 - 2 fWAR as a 400 PA guy sounds about right. That'd be well above "JAG" status in my estimation. He won't be a superstar, but I think he will be a useful MLB contributor.

    That said I'm not overly upset we missed on him. Or didn't sign him. More the reasoning of "we have no money!". There should always be money from a large market for Shogo Akiyama types. Find it in the banana stand if need be.

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
    There's always money in the banana stand

    Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



  3. #2373
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    So if they keep Bryant is it possible to just trade Willy for someone like Canning + and then deal Q for either pen help or a bench bat. If the plus with Canning is Buttrey, maybe Q goes for bench help. Maybe Q added and LaStella comes back. Whatever, the point is does that team compete for the division while being under the LT, without adding anything else. I think with a little luck (Happ becoming a decent starting centerfielder, Schwarber taking a step up, Nico coming up and being solid from the start, Canning being a solid #4, the rest of the staff not regressing, and the pen overachieving -if any part of a team can overachieve it is the pen), the team can compete in the central. bench would be a little weak since Caratini would now be starting and at the start of the year Bote would be starting. So they would have whoever they got for Q as their main bench bat, and after that a pretty weak bench. Almora, Descalso, Kemp, Perez, back up catcher is not a good bench, even if they make a trade for someone who helps out. If they did something like this there would be very little, if any room at the deadline if the Cubs were competing. Personally, I think this team would compete. I would say if all goes well the team is an 85 to 90 win team.
    Not trolling, I promise, just our board is quite slow this time of year, and our team isn't doing **** this off-season, so I'm wandering looking for discussions lol. Rcal, hope you and your family had a nice holiday! And Happy New Year!




    According to Cot's, the Cubs are $2.05M over the first luxury tax, but have $15M before they hit the next tier. Obviously, the Cubs have the money to blow past that next threshold, and it wouldn't matter much. But, in my opinion, the Cubs will want to be able to start giving out extensions to guys like Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, etc in order to extend this window. So this is the best year to get under the tax, and then blow past it next off-season, and start extending people and spending in free agency and prepare for the next CBA.

    I don't think Bryant has as great of a surplus value as probably a lot of Cubs fans would believe. He is probably going to be paid roughly $40M over the next two seasons, and while that isn't enough to break a team, that is a lot of money for a team to absorb entirely, and give up top prospects for.

    I feel like Bryant is a safe bet to be a 4 win player each of the next two seasons. While he certainly has 6 win upside, his 2018 can't be ignored when projecting him, and he didn't get back to his former 6 win self this year.

    So I see him as a 2 year, $40M investment for basically 8 wins. So basically, $40M in surplus value.

    There have been 3 recent 4 win caliber players this off-season and last that were moved with 2 years of control.

    JT Realmuto, James Paxton, and Tommy Pham.

    For Realmuto, and that is a position of great scarcity, and Realmuto is arguably the best player at his position. The Marlins got back the 21st best prospect (MLB.com), a 1 win catcher with 5 years of control and upside (was a top 50-75 prospect a year earlier) and an outside the top 30 prospect. I would consider this the best case for the Cubs in a return for Bryant, but I do think that is pretty unlikely. Realmuto being considered the best catcher in the game at the time of the trade, while Bryant is probably considered around the 5th best third basemen. Even after Donaldson signs, I don't think any team has to go for broke to get him to fill their 3B need.

    For Paxton, the Yankees received the 31st best prospect (MLB.com), along with their 11th best prospect, and an outside the top 30 prospect

    And for Pham, the Rays received the 72nd best prospect, along with an all-or nothing 1-3 win corner outfielder with 4 years of control.

    And each, Paxton, Realmtuo, and Pham make way less in their last two years of service time than Bryant will.

    If we take the median of all three trades, that is the 41st best prospect, plus a 4-5 years of control 1-3 win player with upside, and a prospect outside of the organizations top 30.

    From the Braves for example, that would be Wright (35), Camargo, and some guy we've never heard of (as a comparable). You could also mess around with something where you get maybe Newcomb who would slot immediately into the rotation.

    I'd say that's your median baseline for a Bryant trade. We can argue that Bryant is maybe a little better than these guys, and I wouldn't argue with you. But you have to take into account his salary, which is the only reason the Cubs are even considering moving him. Moving him, allows the Cubs to easily get below the luxury tax threshold, still sign someone like Will Harris to a 1 or a 2 year deal, and keep a top lineup in the NL Central.

    But, if the Cubs think Bryant can be extended, then move Daniel Descalso and throw in a mid level just to get under the tax, and ignore it all. Or move Q in a separate deal.

    But the benefit of moving Bryant is that you can both get under the tax, sign some free agents, and get likely cost controlled pitching added to the farm and not kill the team in the short term.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 12-30-2019 at 10:12 PM.

  4. #2374
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    Rumor: Braves offer Donaldson 4 years. This muddies the pond a bit.
    Romans 12:21

  5. #2375
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    Quote Originally Posted by BobbyD3 View Post
    Rumor: Braves offer Donaldson 4 years. This muddies the pond a bit.
    Still leaves Rangers, Nationals, and possibly the Blue Jays or Dodgers

  6. #2376
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Still leaves Rangers, Nationals, and possibly the Blue Jays or Dodgers
    Right. But the Rangers and Nationals really are not very interesting trade partners for the Cubs. I don't think the Blue Jays are realistic options. LA may be. But just how motivated they would be is questionable.

    While they exist, Atlanta offers, what is likely the Cubs best match up. They have what the Cubs will likely want (young pitching).

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  7. #2377
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    2019-20 Offseason Thread 2.0: Winter Meetings Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by BobbyD3 View Post
    Rumor: Braves offer Donaldson 4 years. This muddies the pond a bit.
    Supposedly the rumors going around are from former GMs Steve Phillips and Jim Bowden.

    They both say the rumored deal offer could go as high as 5/$125 mil for Donaldson to ATL

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  8. #2378
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    Supposedly the rumors going around are from former GMs Steve Phillips and Jim Bowden.

    They both say the rumored deal offer could go as high as 5/$125 mil for Donaldson to ATL
    My god that would be a homerun for Donaldson.


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  9. #2379
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Still leaves Rangers, Nationals, and possibly the Blue Jays or Dodgers
    Maybe the Phillies too


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  10. #2380
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Not trolling, I promise, just our board is quite slow this time of year, and our team isn't doing **** this off-season, so I'm wandering looking for discussions lol. Rcal, hope you and your family had a nice holiday! And Happy New Year!




    According to Cot's, the Cubs are $2.05M over the first luxury tax, but have $15M before they hit the next tier. Obviously, the Cubs have the money to blow past that next threshold, and it wouldn't matter much. But, in my opinion, the Cubs will want to be able to start giving out extensions to guys like Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, etc in order to extend this window. So this is the best year to get under the tax, and then blow past it next off-season, and start extending people and spending in free agency and prepare for the next CBA.

    I don't think Bryant has as great of a surplus value as probably a lot of Cubs fans would believe. He is probably going to be paid roughly $40M over the next two seasons, and while that isn't enough to break a team, that is a lot of money for a team to absorb entirely, and give up top prospects for.

    I feel like Bryant is a safe bet to be a 4 win player each of the next two seasons. While he certainly has 6 win upside, his 2018 can't be ignored when projecting him, and he didn't get back to his former 6 win self this year.

    So I see him as a 2 year, $40M investment for basically 8 wins. So basically, $40M in surplus value.

    There have been 3 recent 4 win caliber players this off-season and last that were moved with 2 years of control.

    JT Realmuto, James Paxton, and Tommy Pham.

    For Realmuto, and that is a position of great scarcity, and Realmuto is arguably the best player at his position. The Marlins got back the 21st best prospect (MLB.com), a 1 win catcher with 5 years of control and upside (was a top 50-75 prospect a year earlier) and an outside the top 30 prospect. I would consider this the best case for the Cubs in a return for Bryant, but I do think that is pretty unlikely. Realmuto being considered the best catcher in the game at the time of the trade, while Bryant is probably considered around the 5th best third basemen. Even after Donaldson signs, I don't think any team has to go for broke to get him to fill their 3B need.

    For Paxton, the Yankees received the 31st best prospect (MLB.com), along with their 11th best prospect, and an outside the top 30 prospect

    And for Pham, the Rays received the 72nd best prospect, along with an all-or nothing 1-3 win corner outfielder with 4 years of control.

    And each, Paxton, Realmtuo, and Pham make way less in their last two years of service time than Bryant will.

    If we take the median of all three trades, that is the 41st best prospect, plus a 4-5 years of control 1-3 win player with upside, and a prospect outside of the organizations top 30.

    From the Braves for example, that would be Wright (35), Camargo, and some guy we've never heard of (as a comparable). You could also mess around with something where you get maybe Newcomb who would slot immediately into the rotation.

    I'd say that's your median baseline for a Bryant trade. We can argue that Bryant is maybe a little better than these guys, and I wouldn't argue with you. But you have to take into account his salary, which is the only reason the Cubs are even considering moving him. Moving him, allows the Cubs to easily get below the luxury tax threshold, still sign someone like Will Harris to a 1 or a 2 year deal, and keep a top lineup in the NL Central.

    But, if the Cubs think Bryant can be extended, then move Daniel Descalso and throw in a mid level just to get under the tax, and ignore it all. Or move Q in a separate deal.

    But the benefit of moving Bryant is that you can both get under the tax, sign some free agents, and get likely cost controlled pitching added to the farm and not kill the team in the short term.
    Disagree slightly with how you got there, but this is pretty close to what Iíve been saying. I think Kris Bryant as a full time 3b is a fairly safe bet for 5 wins. He had the shoulder thing in 2018. His OF defense hurt the war a little in 19. But I had him in that 40-50 mil surplus value range that gets them 1 55 FV guy, a decent 2nd piece (Iíd say Riley is a more likely 2nd piece than Camargo if itís Atl) and a lotto ticket or IFA cash as a 3rd piece.

    Realmuto is the best recent comp for a Bryant trade.

  11. #2381
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Disagree slightly with how you got there, but this is pretty close to what Iíve been saying. I think Kris Bryant as a full time 3b is a fairly safe bet for 5 wins. He had the shoulder thing in 2018. His OF defense hurt the war a little in 19. But I had him in that 40-50 mil surplus value range that gets them 1 55 FV guy, a decent 2nd piece (Iíd say Riley is a more likely 2nd piece than Camargo if itís Atl) and a lotto ticket or IFA cash as a 3rd piece.

    Realmuto is the best recent comp for a Bryant trade.
    Yeah, I wouldn't argue with a 5 win value placed on Bryant, I think the difference in a deal for him, would determine how badly teams compete in a trade for him.

    But I think Riley would be really tough to get in addition to any pitching.


    Here is a fun simulator to mess around with if you want to.

    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
    Folty, Davidson would be other pitching pieces in addition to Wright that could also make sense (according to this).

  12. #2382
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    Dec 2017
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    199
    Good luck to any team willing to give Donaldson a five-year deal. At 25 mill per. Complete joke. That guy is going to age about as good as a box of wine.

  13. #2383
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    Jul 2018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freezee View Post
    Good luck to any team willing to give Donaldson a five-year deal. At 25 mill per. Complete joke.
    Starting to look like the top 2 remaining 3Bmen available might be overpriced

    Donaldson with the yrs and money

    Bryant/Theo looking for a big return

  14. #2384
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    Nov 2014
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    12,015
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Yeah, I wouldn't argue with a 5 win value placed on Bryant, I think the difference in a deal for him, would determine how badly teams compete in a trade for him.

    But I think Riley would be really tough to get in addition to any pitching.


    Here is a fun simulator to mess around with if you want to.

    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
    Folty, Davidson would be other pitching pieces in addition to Wright that could also make sense (according to this).
    Iíve seen that website. Iím not a fan.

  15. #2385
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    Jun 2012
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    2,377
    Just to complete the dumpster fire that is this offseason, I fully expect them to keep KB while trying to claim they think they're still a WS caliber team. Instead they're on their way to winning 80 games and continuing to piss away player value leading to a nice half decade long rebuild.

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