Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 57
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Posts
    1,588

    Is Lamar Jackson having the greatest QB season all-time?

    As of Week 13 in the 2019 NFL season, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is the MVP frontrunner. Jackson, has shown consistent accuracy from the pocket, but it's his elusiveness and speed that have helped make his sophomore year an all-time great season. I decided to compile a list of passing and rushing season and postseason stats from all QB's in NFL/AFL history beginning from 1950. I've translated all QB stats into 2017 -- only because I've been using 2017 as a basis for my QB reference since 2017. I've run multiple regression analysis to help determine the linear weights in an adjustment to Pete Palmer's ANY/A metric that includes player rushing statistics. I converted the new metric, rANY/A into wins and sorted all QB's from 1950 by Wins Above an Average QB (WAA).

    I'm free to answer any questions about my formula in the replies. I'm tired and want to get straight to the results in the OP.

    The top seasons:

    1. Marino '84 WAA=3.67
    2. Brady '11 WAA = 3.42
    3. Brady '07 WAA = 3.32
    4. Brees '11 WAA = 3.26
    5. P Manning '13 WAA = 3.23
    6. Culpepper '04 WAA = 3.21
    7. Staubach '77 WAA = 3.19
    8. Fouts '82 WAA = 3.19
    9. Fouts '80 WAA = 3.18
    10. P Manning '06 WAA = 3.12

    *I combine regular season and post season stats. Again, I could get into my theory in a later post.

    *In seasons like Unitas '59 and Graham '52, the 12th best single season all time, the regular season numbers and post season numbers were extrapolated to reflect modern NFL regular season and post season length. Strike shortened seasons produced '82 and '87 were extrapolated and also normalized to reflect the notion that exaggerated numbers would've likely regressed to the mean if more games were played.
    *Penalized players like Brees, Moon, Stafford, P Manning etc. 5% rANY/A for playing in dome conditions.

    Note that each QB in my top 10 played on teams that marked a playoff run of at least 2 games. In other words, it's difficult to have an all-time season without some team success.

    Lamar Jackson's Ravens currently sit at 9-2, and have all but clinched the AFC North. The likelihood that the Ravens have a home game in the playoffs is high. I projected Lamar Jackson's final 5 regular season games, an added two additional playoff games in the final stat line:

    Jackson RS & PS
    Pass Yds = 3786
    Pass TDs = 37
    Int = 8
    Pass 1D = 193
    Sk Yds = 142
    Rush Yds = 1433
    Rush TD = 10
    Rush 1D = 77

    Jackson finishes 2019 with an WAA = 3.41

    A 3.41 WAA would rank 3rd all-time to Marino '84, Brady '11, however both those QB's played in 3 playoff games those years. If Jackson plays in Super Bowl 54 win or lose, I think it's probable that we are witnessing the single greatest QB performance since the 1950 merger.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    [emoji288]
    Posts
    15,516
    Welcome back

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    43,061
    I remember eating my 1st Big Mac.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    4,866
    lamar Jackson is jesus
    Quote Originally Posted by NormSizedMidget View Post
    It's different now than it was.

    When he won the second one, Giants fans are here we're outside of their minds.
    That quote always cracks me up.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    10,096
    Fun fact- Lamar Jackson is 3 weeks younger than Joe Burrow, who'll be rated as a top QB prospect in the 2020 draft.

    I'm surprised to see Marino's '84 rate that high....yes, 5000 yds and 48 TDs, but 17 picks.............and 23 yrs old himself that year.....................and another guy drafted at the end of the 1st round with QBs drafted ahead of him not nearly as successful
    gotta love 'referential' treatment

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    11,012
    Hes got the only two traits you typically look for. The fact that Culpepper is your 6th best QB season of all time should tell anyone this is a trash metric.

    BuT mUh 60% cOmPlEtion

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Rhode Island
    Posts
    33,348
    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    Hes got the only two traits you typically look for. The fact that Culpepper is your 6th best QB season of all time should tell anyone this is a trash metric.
    In 04 Culpepper led the league in yards. His 39 TDs were t-5th all time as of that year (including Peytonís bigger total that year).

    His 2.0 INT%, for comparison, is below Peytonís career 2.7 and comparable to Bradyís 1.8.

    Just looking at raw data itís not really unfathomable to say he had one of the greatest statistical seasons of all time. I think we all know it was an outlier season and probably influenced by a strong supporting cast but from a raw data perspective it was an exceptional season I think.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    10,242
    Quote Originally Posted by SiteWolf View Post
    Fun fact- Lamar Jackson is 3 weeks younger than Joe Burrow, who'll be rated as a top QB prospect in the 2020 draft.

    I'm surprised to see Marino's '84 rate that high....yes, 5000 yds and 48 TDs, but 17 picks.............and 23 yrs old himself that year.....................and another guy drafted at the end of the 1st round with QBs drafted ahead of him not nearly as successful
    Allen will be better long term imo.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Posts
    1,588
    Quote Originally Posted by SiteWolf View Post
    Fun fact- Lamar Jackson is 3 weeks younger than Joe Burrow, who'll be rated as a top QB prospect in the 2020 draft.

    I'm surprised to see Marino's '84 rate that high....yes, 5000 yds and 48 TDs, but 17 picks.............and 23 yrs old himself that year.....................and another guy drafted at the end of the 1st round with QBs drafted ahead of him not nearly as successful
    I need to state the obvious. I'd put my metric up against anyones in determining performance value for a QB. However, it is only an estimate. Shula was a HOF coach before he turned his offense over to Marino in '83 -- then a rookie QB. What would Brady be without Belichick -- the coach and GM -- that acquire Moss, Welker, Amendola, Gronk, players that helped take Brady's game to an all-time level. Reid/Mahomes, Walsh/Montana, Coryell/Fouts, Brees/Payton. The QB position is the position most dependent on coaching and management to scheme and build a supporting cast. If I claim Steve Young and Ken Anderson are all-time greats, I claim that without knowing how their careers would've shaped without the influence of the WCO. Young, in particular, was mediocre in Tampa.

    The other issue is that in the OP I mentioned the term "translations". My use of that word differs from what many interpret Sean Laman's baseball translations as -- an attempt to time warp classic players into the modern game. This is more fantasy, and not my intention. Marino was throwing in 1984 against defenses primarily designed to thwart the run game. Defenders are far more agile today. Coaching schemes are far better designed to defend against a vertical pass attack. I have no idea how Marino would fair under another coach, a poor offensive line, or in the modern era. My work assess player performance in the same way an inflation calculation assess the value of the dollar any given year compared to the next. My work shows, through careful adjustment, the value of 5,084 pass yards in today's game, it doesn't pretend to know the unknowable.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    29,489
    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    Hes got the only two traits you typically look for. The fact that Culpepper is your 6th best QB season of all time should tell anyone this is a trash metric.
    Fitting of Culpepper the name of his stat is a whine ... Waaaaaaa!

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    11,012
    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    In 04 Culpepper led the league in yards. His 39 TDs were t-5th all time as of that year (including Peytonís bigger total that year).

    His 2.0 INT%, for comparison, is below Peytonís career 2.7 and comparable to Bradyís 1.8.

    Just looking at raw data itís not really unfathomable to say he had one of the greatest statistical seasons of all time. I think we all know it was an outlier season and probably influenced by a strong supporting cast but from a raw data perspective it was an exceptional season I think.
    Anyone who watched that season could see he was playing with crazy talent. I like Culpepper, but even as a kid watching that season I knew it was all about his receivers. Just looking at stats, one day there will be people thinking Kirk Cousins was a top 5 QB when he was with Washington.

    BuT mUh 60% cOmPlEtion

  12. #12
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    [emoji288]
    Posts
    15,516
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Allen will be better long term imo.
    They started out closer together entering the NFL and Jackson has outpaced Allen in development so far.

    He was good on Thanksgiving though.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    [emoji288]
    Posts
    15,516
    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    I need to state the obvious. I'd put my metric up against anyones in determining performance value for a QB.
    Do you still give Dak only half the "plays in dome conditions" penalty because Cowboys stadium has a retractable roof?
    Last edited by QB_Eagles; 11-30-2019 at 03:34 PM.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    11,012
    Quote Originally Posted by SiteWolf View Post
    Fun fact- Lamar Jackson is 3 weeks younger than Joe Burrow, who'll be rated as a top QB prospect in the 2020 draft.

    I'm surprised to see Marino's '84 rate that high....yes, 5000 yds and 48 TDs, but 17 picks.............and 23 yrs old himself that year.....................and another guy drafted at the end of the 1st round with QBs drafted ahead of him not nearly as successful
    Marino was so far ahead of his time. His '84 season would be jaw dropping even today, can you imagine what he could've done with the modern rules and ease of passing? I recently was watching old Marino games and he's just ****ing mindblowing. With even one SB ring he'd probably be in a lot of people's running for the GOAT.

    BuT mUh 60% cOmPlEtion

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    7,267
    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    Marino was so far ahead of his time. His '84 season would be jaw dropping even today, can you imagine what he could've done with the modern rules and ease of passing? I recently was watching old Marino games and he's just ****ing mindblowing. With even one SB ring he'd probably be in a lot of people's running for the GOAT.
    I mean he probably is the greatest passer of all time in any particular era. It's pretty remarkable he never really got close to winning a SB again.

Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •