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  1. #751
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    Quote Originally Posted by mightybosstone View Post
    I don't think 93 wins is a drastic prediction at all, actually. I think the Vegas over/under (97 wins) seems more than fair. If I had to pick between the over/under, I'd give it a slight over, but I think they almost certainly fall within 3-4 wins from that 97 figure. If you force me to put a number on it, I'd go 98-99. I still think they're one of the three best teams in baseball, but I worry about their starting rotation with Verlander and Greinke being so old and McCullers coming back from TJS. Also, I just think the division got a lot better.

    I do think Bregman easily tops 100 walks, barring him missing significant time. That would genuinely shock me if he didn't. Where the guy hits in the lineup, his recognition of pitches outsize the zone and his unwillingness to swing at those pitches—I just think predicting the under is a miss. Also, a prediction of under is pretty much saying "I think the guy cheated in 2019." And you and I both know where we stand on this one. I'm taking the over and not thinking twice about it.

    Altuve's homers are tougher to judge. Because he's always been more of a singles and doubles hitter until last season, where he somehow hit 31 in only 124 games. I could honestly see it going either way. Maybe last season was an anomaly from a power standpoint, or maybe that was just a sign of things to come and he's capable of that night in and night out. My gut tell me to take the under, though.
    I never said they would suck. I just said they wouldn’t be as good as they have been in previous years. There’s no doubt that the Astros have talented players I just don’t think they’re MVP calibre. I think the A’s take the division while the Astros battle it out with the White Sox and Angels for the 2nd WC.

    This may be a reach on Altuve but it’s rare to see a guy who stands at 5’6” swinging a -2 weight bat especially one that’s 33 inches. Altuve swings a 33/31. Not sure if he swung that prior to 2019 but that along with the buzzer could’ve helped his HR total.

    Obviously the -100 walks for Bregman won’t apply if he misses significant time. If he plays a full season I think we’ll see something around 80-90 walks for him. He probably has a good eye but having the ability to sit dead red on fastballs as long as its not a pitchers count probably helps a lot.

  2. #752
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    Or just knowing going into an at-bat against a guy with a devastating breaking pitch and that you can just hunt the fastball and knowing you can let everything else go until/unless you get into a situation where that is no longer possible. The pitcher works hard meanwhile you are just waiting to ambush something.

    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    Yup and if said pitcher leaves a hanging banger then the hitter will be able to identify it and smash it because he’ll already be waiting for it.

  3. #753
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    The Astros will still finish above 90 wins, though triple digits will be hard without good luck, they'll probably win the division again, though the A's are coming for them hard.

  4. #754
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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Johnson#3 View Post
    I never said they would suck. I just said they wouldn’t be as good as they have been in previous years. There’s no doubt that the Astros have talented players I just don’t think they’re MVP calibre. I think the A’s take the division while the Astros battle it out with the White Sox and Angels for the 2nd WC.
    That's fine. I still think the talent gap between the Astros and the A's is really significant. The A's will outperform their talent as they do every season, but I don't see it being enough to beat a team that's just much more talented on paper.

    This may be a reach on Altuve but it’s rare to see a guy who stands at 5’6” swinging a -2 weight bat especially one that’s 33 inches. Altuve swings a 33/31. Not sure if he swung that prior to 2019 but that along with the buzzer could’ve helped his HR total.
    OK, so let's assume Altuve cheated from 2017-19. If cheating was the reason for why he hit more home runs, why weren't his home run totals higher in 2017 and 2018?

    Obviously the -100 walks for Bregman won’t apply if he misses significant time. If he plays a full season I think we’ll see something around 80-90 walks for him. He probably has a good eye but having the ability to sit dead red on fastballs as long as its not a pitchers count probably helps a lot.
    Similar take on this. If Bregman cheated all three of those years, why weren't his walk totals higher all three seasons? Also, if the whole team is doing this, why is Bregman the only guy with the absurd walk totals?

    I don't care that people are skeptical of the Astros' numbers the last three seasons. It is what it is. They cheated—skepticism is deserved, whether we know if they cheated in 2019 or not. But for every Altuve and Bregman, who put up big numbers in those seasons, nobody's looking at the numbers of Tyler White or Josh Reddick or Jake Marisnick.

    If knowing what pitch was coming led to a massive spike in production, why isn't everyone walking 100+ times and hitting 30+ homers? Maybe it's because guys like Bregman and Altuve and Springer are just really freaking good baseball players?


  5. #755
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    Quote Originally Posted by goingfor28 View Post
    Truly crazy how good his eye is at the plate. It's almost as if he knew what was coming.
    I brought this up in the post above, but if you think everyone on the Astros was cheating from 2017-19, why didn't more players walk more? In those three seasons, no other player had more than 67 walks in a season, but Bregman had 96 and 119 the last two years. Unless your take is that only Bregman cheated and everyone else was innocent, that logic doesn't add up.


  6. #756
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    I suppose it was implied when you said cheating or no that yes you would go on a limb and say the Astros would have the most wins in the MLB the last 3 seasons.

    Having said that, it was a hypothetical scenario and I assumed the gap between them and number 2 on the list couldnt be too great. I realize the gap might have been larger and that is my bad.

    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    To be fair, I may have misread one of your posts I responded to as well. Not remembering ever saying I believe the Astros would have the best record in MLB three years running without cheating, I looked back at my old posts. In doing this, I saw you said "first" as in best record in all of baseball. I must have blasted through it too quick and thought you meant best record in the AL West.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  7. #757
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    That would be about what I would guess as well. This season will be fascinating to watch unfold.

    You are a gambler, no? Where would you recommend if you wanted to wager on something like this?

    If I am mixing you up for another poster I apologize in advance.

    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    I'm not a big sports gambler. More of a poker player. If I was throwing money down on a bet for Astros wins in '20, I'd research it more but off the top of my head I'd guess something like 89 wins. Losing Cole and having your two best pitchers in their upper thirties would be my main reasoning for not going higher. That lineup is killer though.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  8. #758
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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Johnson#3 View Post
    No, that’s not the argument. You claimed that knowing what pitch is coming doesn’t take knowing when to lay off pitches out of the equation. I gave you two examples of how it does. Even if the pitcher misses his spot, the batter knows how the pitch will be moving. I’d like for you to tell me how knowing what pitch is coming doesn’t help a batter lay off pitches.
    Dude. You are dense af. I have NEVER said that knowing what pitch is coming doesn't help a batter lay off pitches. I said there's more to knowing what's coming than being aware of pitch type.

    Get a grip.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  9. #759
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    Quote Originally Posted by mightybosstone View Post
    If knowing what pitch was coming led to a massive spike in production, why isn't everyone walking 100+ times and hitting 30+ homers? Maybe it's because guys like Bregman and Altuve and Springer are just really freaking good baseball players?
    Hopefully 2020 will answer that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  10. #760
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    Quote Originally Posted by mightybosstone View Post
    I brought this up in the post above, but if you think everyone on the Astros was cheating from 2017-19, why didn't more players walk more? In those three seasons, no other player had more than 67 walks in a season, but Bregman had 96 and 119 the last two years. Unless your take is that only Bregman cheated and everyone else was innocent, that logic doesn't add up.
    Knowing what pitch is coming doesnt guarantee patience. Maybe Bregman is just more patient.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  11. #761
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  12. #762
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    It's confusing to me because he said he was part of a system and he also said they eventually caught it(wonder if he's referring to the apple watch Boston system back in 16-17.

    Not saying the Yankees didn't cheat. They were investigated back in 16 when a dug out phone was to call the bullpen to see if it was a ball or strike and that was the end of it, as far as I know. Could obviously go deeper but unless they're investigating them we will never know.

    Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
    He is talking about the one and only, pure trash: Ereck Flowers

    Quote Originally Posted by cowboyskilla View Post
    His stern face can give that impression but I don't feel that's the case. New York isn't an easy place to play at, so honestly I can see his confidence at an all-time low for him.

    I don't think he's a bust. I think he just needs the right motivation to pick himself up & play harder.

  13. #763
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    Quote Originally Posted by RCSownsU View Post
    It's confusing to me because he said he was part of a system and he also said they eventually caught it(wonder if he's referring to the apple watch Boston system back in 16-17.

    Not saying the Yankees didn't cheat. They were investigated back in 16 when a dug out phone was to call the bullpen to see if it was a ball or strike and that was the end of it, as far as I know. Could obviously go deeper but unless they're investigating them we will never know.

    Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
    Carrabis is a Red Sox fan as well. I know he's supposed to be impartial as a journalist but you know how that goes. That said, Girardi's words are interesting.

  14. #764
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    Quote Originally Posted by JudgeMeNot View Post
    Talent has a way of appearing more talented when they are benefiting from the worst cheating scandal since the Black Sox...
    Regarding the Black Sox: Scandal, yes. Cheating, no.

  15. #765
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Carrabis is a Red Sox fan as well. I know he's supposed to be impartial as a journalist but you know how that goes. That said, Girardi's words are interesting.
    Yeah, he is insanely biased. But, it's possible what he is saying is true.

    Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
    He is talking about the one and only, pure trash: Ereck Flowers

    Quote Originally Posted by cowboyskilla View Post
    His stern face can give that impression but I don't feel that's the case. New York isn't an easy place to play at, so honestly I can see his confidence at an all-time low for him.

    I don't think he's a bust. I think he just needs the right motivation to pick himself up & play harder.

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