Alonso wins ROY

[fanofclendennon]

Take a look at Murphy's 2009 & 2010 defensive stats.
I am not killing Alonso, but Murphy was really ****ing good at 1st.

Again, defnsive metrics. They all suck. To be fair, first base was Murph's best position. He was not as good as Alonso.

[Claymation]

Again, defnsive metrics. They all suck. To be fair, first base was Murph's best position. He was not as good as Alonso.

And you are using, let me guess, the eye test.

[fanofclendennon]

And you are using, let me guess, the eye test.

For defense, that's all you've got. Metrics can't account for the myriad of variables involved with individual defense.

[Claymation]

For defense, that's all you've got. Metrics can't account for the myriad of variables involved with individual defense.

An your eyes are lying to you. Because you believe it doesn’t make it true.

[fanofclendennon]

An your eyes are lying to you. Because you believe it doesn’t make it true.

Your unreliable data doesnt make it any more true than my lying eyes.

[YoungStuna]

Good points. All of which would likely be factored into any discussion. He's broken a HR record for rookies, won over a cynical fan base and generally exceeded expectations. But you're right, he's not Pujols or Goldschmidt (or even Tatis) which works in favor of the FO. He's not that young, either. But most of the guys mentioned in this thread were given huge FA contracts. This is different and, IMO, worth looking into. Everything with everyone remains to be seen and value is realized or lost by trusting data and instincts and not waiting for everyone to "show it first". He's not a generational talent, but he's definitely an impressive one, and the team might be making a value move by locking him up at a reasonable rate.

Goldschmidt is actually a great example of what Pete can be. He already has more power, he just needs to cut the Ks a bit so he can raise his BA to .280 or above. I think his plate discipline will get better and better as time goes on. I think the idea that he’s peaked as a rookie is ridiculous.

Nothing's certain. But this is a move I'd support. What type of years/$ would you think would get it done?

I think 8/$110m could get it done. It’s hard to see Alonso making more than $40m over the next 5 years through pre-arb and arbitration and then the remaining 3 years would buy out those FA years at $70m ($23.3m AAV).

Contract structure (vs. no extension)

2020: $3m ($500k)
2021: $7m ($500k)
2022: $10m (~$7m)
2023: $15m (~$13m)
2024: $15m (~$20m)
2025: $20m (FA)
2026: $20m (FA)
2027: $20m (FA)

So the Freeman extension is a good framework, except Freddie was closer to FA than Alonso was with much more MLB experience under his belt.

[YoungStuna]

Freddie isn't that good defensively. So thank God he isn't Freddie Freeman.

What are you basing that on, exactly?

Because that’s not true from my view.

Unless you are using his poor UZR range numbers from 2019 that look like an outlier until proven otherwise. His DRS was still pretty strong and he was excellent defensively overall in 2018.

[YoungStuna]

Take a look at Murphy's 2009 & 2010 defensive stats.
I am not killing Alonso, but Murphy was really ****ing good at 1st.

Yeah he really was. Didn’t even need stats to see that. The problem was that he wasn’t a good enough hitter at the time to play 1B full time unfortunately and the knee injuries did mess with range as well.

[metswon69]

Goldschmidt is actually a great example of what Pete can be. He already has more power, he just needs to cut the Ks a bit so he can raise his BA to .280 or above. I think his plate discipline will get better and better as time goes on. I think the idea that he’s peaked as a rookie is ridiculous.

Only peaked in terms of home run production. Sure, he could become a better hitter but that doesn't change the trend of good hitting 1st baseman around MLB and the gap between him and some of them not being that large. That's all my point was.

Growing into a hitter with high walk rates (and great plate discipline) doesn't always happen. That said, yeah I except growth. If the expectations are that he'll become some sort of superstar, I'm not sure of that. Be a top 3 or 4 1st baseman in all of baseball value wise, yeah.

[YoungStuna]

Only peaked in terms of home run production. Sure, he could become a better hitter but that doesn't change the trend of good hitting 1st baseman around MLB and the gap between him and some of them not being that large. That's all my point was.

Growing into a hitter with high walk rates (and great plate discipline) doesn't always happen. That said, yeah I except growth. If the expectations are that he'll become some sort of superstar, I'm not sure of that. Be a top 3 or 4 1st baseman in all of baseball value wise, yeah.

Well yeah he’s not going to hit more homers than this. That’s pretty obvious, but the fact that he still has room for growth offensively is scary. Alonso led MLB 1st basemen in wRC+ as a rookie. Even if he stays the same, he’s pretty damn amazing.

[fanofclendennon]

Well yeah he’s not going to hit more homers than this. That’s pretty obvious, but the fact that he still has room for growth offensively is scary. Alonso led MLB 1st basemen in wRC+ as a rookie. Even if he stays the same, he’s pretty damn amazing.

He's not going to hit more than 53 homers but he very might become a better hitter.

[YoungStuna]

He's not going to hit more than 53 homers but he very might become a better hitter.

Yep exactly. I’ll happily take .280/.380/.550 over the .260/.358/.583 he gave last season even if it’s reduced power. He’ll still hit around 40 homers.

[metswon69]

Well yeah he’s not going to hit more homers than this. That’s pretty obvious, but the fact that he still has room for growth offensively is scary. Alonso led MLB 1st basemen in wRC+ as a rookie. Even if he stays the same, he’s pretty damn amazing.

I mean it depends on what your expectations are. Maybe he sprinkles in a couple of 155-160 wRC+ seasons which is fantastic but how much growth is there on a guy who is hitting like that? He's never going to hit for average, he still strikes out a ton, and his plate discipline is solid but nothing spectacular. What's an actual ceiling?

[YoungStuna]

I mean it depends on what your expectations are. Maybe he sprinkles in a couple of 155-160 wRC+ seasons which is fantastic but how much growth is there on a guy who is hitting like that? He's never going to hit for average, he still strikes out a ton, and his plate discipline is solid but nothing spectacular. What's an actual ceiling?

Yeah, 155-160 wRC+ is probably his ceiling and that’s fantastic. That’s the growth I’m talking about.

1B or not, that is amazing performance. That would be Top 5 single season in Mets history to Olerud (167 wRC+ in 1998), Hojo (165 wRC+ in 1989), and Strawberry (162 wRC+ in 1985, 159 wRC+ in 1987-88).

Alonso has every chance to be apart of that company. And if his historic rookie campaign was any indication, he could possibly surpass them as well. It’s not likely, but who knows? I won’t doubt him.

[The Futurist]

He may never hit more than 53 HRs again (I believe he will), or have a .290/155-160 wRC+ season (I believe he will). He may never be Pujols/Goldschmidt or even Freeman-esque (I believe he'll be close to the last two). And I'm not advocating breaking the bank on him.

What I am saying is even in a HR-crazy era filled with power-hitting first baseman, he's got considerable value. He's young and he's already one of the most popular players in the league and team history.

Any GM with a long view of his team would be foolish not to explore the potential value of a long-term deal for Pete Alonso.