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Thread: Alonso wins ROY

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    I doubt he gets much better.

    I can see similar years and multiple of them, but not better.
    Not sure what it would take to lock up Pete. But here's a decent article from the spring on why more teams are locking up promising young players (skyrocketing arbitration numbers down the line are one consideration).
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ct-extensions/

  2. #17
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    Have to laugh. On SNY tonight they talked about how it's very important to Pete that the Mets win a WS. Of course it is. And as soon as he gets a chance he'll move on to the highest bidder.

    As he should.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    Have to laugh. On SNY tonight they talked about how it's very important to Pete that the Mets win a WS. Of course it is. And as soon as he gets a chance he'll move on to the highest bidder.

    As he should.
    I don't think he's going to be worth what you think he will be. Good hitting 1st baseman are a dime a dozen and Pete is not Albert Pujols. He's probably peaked in terms of home runs hit and its hard to expect him to be a .300 hitter.

    Let's hope he continues evolving where he cuts down on the strikeouts some, can walk more and shows better plate discipline. Even Freddie Freeman only makes 22 million a season and he's the best first baseman in baseball. Yeah Alonso's FA is not for a bit but I wouldn't expect him to make ridiculous money.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    I don't think he's going to be worth what you think he will be. Good hitting 1st baseman are a dime a dozen and Pete is not Albert Pujols. He's probably peaked in terms of home runs hit and its hard to expect him to be a .300 hitter.

    Let's hope he continues evolving where he cuts down on the strikeouts some, can walk more and shows better plate discipline. Even Freddie Freeman only makes 22 million a season and he's the best first baseman in baseball. Yeah Alonso's FA is not for a bit but I wouldn't expect him to make ridiculous money.
    They are not a dime a dozen. Every team has a Pete Alonso? He’s not Pujols, but if his rookie season is any indication, Pete is going to be damn good.

    He has plenty of time to cut some strikeouts. And even if he doesn’t, he’s still great offensively.

    Freeman only makes $22m because the Braves signed him to an 8/$135m extension just before the 2014 season buying out his 3 arb years and 5 FA seasons. That move looks genius right now as Freeman would have hit the open market after the 2016 season and scored a huge contract.

    That move looked a bit more risky at the time considering Freeman looked pretty mediocre in 2011 and 2012, so the Braves clearly believed in Freeman after his great 2013 season. If the Mets believe in Alonso as well, they would be wise to act sooner rather than later before he becomes too expensive to consider extending. But I would wait after 2020 to see just how legit Alonso looks and there will be more payroll flexibility for such a move.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    They are not a dime a dozen. Every team has a Pete Alonso? He’s not Pujols, but if his rookie season is any indication, Pete is going to be damn good.

    He has plenty of time to cut some strikeouts. And even if he doesn’t, he’s still great offensively.

    Freeman only makes $22m because the Braves signed him to an 8/$135m extension just before the 2014 season buying out his 3 arb years and 5 FA seasons. That move looks genius right now as Freeman would have hit the open market after the 2016 season and scored a huge contract.

    That move looked a bit more risky at the time considering Freeman looked pretty mediocre in 2011 and 2012, so the Braves clearly believed in Freeman after his great 2013 season. If the Mets believe in Alonso as well, they would be wise to act sooner rather than later before he becomes too expensive to consider extending. But I would wait after 2020 to see just how legit Alonso looks and there will be more payroll flexibility for such a move.
    Good hitting 1st baseman are a dime a dozen. Its an offense first position that if you don't hit, you don't play. League average wRC+ for starting 1st baseman was 110 in 2019. 13 guys who played 120 or more games (most or all at 1st base) had a wRC+ of 120 or more. Alonso had a 143 wRC+. Obviously better but its not light years different.

    Eh, stabilization rates for offensive sample sizes are not that extensive.

    https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

    Sure, there are players who are exceptions to those rules but you got to show it first.

    What's the last big FA contract you've seen given to a 1st baseman? Hosmer? Goldschmidt? Look at the money they're making. Its not as significant as you might think and the Mets could always do what the Braves did with Freeman like you said. That said, if Alonso regresses even some, you have to think about letting him ride out his arbitration years. Again, he's not Albert Pujols or even Joey Votto in their primes. He's a very good bat we hope has room to grow but how much growth and whether he has peaked yet is TBD.
    Last edited by metswon69; 11-12-2019 at 05:36 AM.

  6. #21
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    Congratulations Pete!

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Good hitting 1st baseman are a dime a dozen. Its an offense first position that if you don't hit, you don't play. League average wRC+ for starting 1st baseman was 110 in 2019. 13 guys who played 120 or more games (most or all at 1st base) had a wRC+ of 120 or more. Alonso had a 143 wRC+. Obviously better but its not light years different.

    Eh, stabilization rates for offensive sample sizes are not that extensive.

    https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

    Sure, there are players who are exceptions to those rules but you got to show it first.

    What's the last big FA contract you've seen given to a 1st baseman? Hosmer? Goldschmidt? Look at the money they're making. Its not as significant as you might think and the Mets could always do what the Braves did with Freeman like you said. That said, if Alonso regresses even some, you have to think about letting him ride out his arbitration years. Again, he's not Albert Pujols or even Joey Votto in their primes. He's a very good bat we hope has room to grow but how much growth and whether he has peaked yet is TBD.
    Good points. All of which would likely be factored into any discussion. He's broken a HR record for rookies, won over a cynical fan base and generally exceeded expectations. But you're right, he's not Pujols or Goldschmidt (or even Tatis) which works in favor of the FO. He's not that young, either. But most of the guys mentioned in this thread were given huge FA contracts. This is different and, IMO, worth looking into. Everything with everyone remains to be seen and value is realized or lost by trusting data and instincts and not waiting for everyone to "show it first". He's not a generational talent, but he's definitely an impressive one, and the team might be making a value move by locking him up at a reasonable rate.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    They are not a dime a dozen. Every team has a Pete Alonso? He’s not Pujols, but if his rookie season is any indication, Pete is going to be damn good.

    He has plenty of time to cut some strikeouts. And even if he doesn’t, he’s still great offensively.

    Freeman only makes $22m because the Braves signed him to an 8/$135m extension just before the 2014 season buying out his 3 arb years and 5 FA seasons. That move looks genius right now as Freeman would have hit the open market after the 2016 season and scored a huge contract.

    That move looked a bit more risky at the time considering Freeman looked pretty mediocre in 2011 and 2012, so the Braves clearly believed in Freeman after his great 2013 season. If the Mets believe in Alonso as well, they would be wise to act sooner rather than later before he becomes too expensive to consider extending. But I would wait after 2020 to see just how legit Alonso looks and there will be more payroll flexibility for such a move.
    Nothing's certain. But this is a move I'd support. What type of years/$ would you think would get it done?

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Good hitting 1st baseman are a dime a dozen. Its an offense first position that if you don't hit, you don't play. League average wRC+ for starting 1st baseman was 110 in 2019. 13 guys who played 120 or more games (most or all at 1st base) had a wRC+ of 120 or more. Alonso had a 143 wRC+. Obviously better but its not light years different.

    Eh, stabilization rates for offensive sample sizes are not that extensive.

    https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

    Sure, there are players who are exceptions to those rules but you got to show it first.

    What's the last big FA contract you've seen given to a 1st baseman? Hosmer? Goldschmidt? Look at the money they're making. Its not as significant as you might think and the Mets could always do what the Braves did with Freeman like you said. That said, if Alonso regresses even some, you have to think about letting him ride out his arbitration years. Again, he's not Albert Pujols or even Joey Votto in their primes. He's a very good bat we hope has room to grow but how much growth and whether he has peaked yet is TBD.
    Dude.

    The man hit 53 homers in his rookie year. He plays an excellent first base. No, he's not Albert Pujols. He's not Joey Voto. He's not Freddie Freeman. He's not Paul Goldschmidt. He's Pete Alonso who just hit 53 homers with a 147 OPS+ in his rookie year.

    Please don't pretend you know who he will be in three years because you don't. You just don't. And neither do I. But what we both know is he got off to a really good start. Having said that, he could stay the same. He could regress a little. He could regress a lot. Or he could continue to improve and get real scary. But please don't sit behind your computer and pretend to know who Pete Alonso will be and how much he will be worth at the end of his contract.

    True, first basemen are generally not worth as much as other position players. We got that. But based on his rookie year, it's fair to say Pete is a lot more than just another good hitting first baseman. But what he is beyond 2019 remains to be seen.

    Fair?
    "Ain't got the call no more. Got a lot of sinful idears – but they seem kinda sensible...."

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    Dude.

    The man hit 53 homers in his rookie year. He plays an excellent first base. No, he's not Albert Pujols. He's not Joey Voto. He's not Freddie Freeman. He's not Paul Goldschmidt. He's Pete Alonso who just hit 53 homers with a 147 OPS+ in his rookie year.

    Please don't pretend you know who he will be in three years because you don't. You just don't. And neither do I. But what we both know is he got off to a really good start. Having said that, he could stay the same. He could regress a little. He could regress a lot. Or he could continue to improve and get real scary. But please don't sit behind your computer and pretend to know who Pete Alonso will be and how much he will be worth at the end of his contract.

    True, first basemen are generally not worth as much as other position players. We got that. But based on his rookie year, it's fair to say Pete is a lot more than just another good hitting first baseman. But what he is beyond 2019 remains to be seen.

    Fair?
    Agree with you. He could hit 50 again. I see him averaging 30 to 50 a year and .260 to .290 a year. .300 could be in his reach but unless he cuts down on those strikeouts, he'll see it maybe once in his lifetime. But that is my opinion. Anything can happen.

    He could wind up hitting 100 HR a year.

    Or 5 HR a year.

  11. #26
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    Also that nutcase of a writer who thought Sirotka did better than Pete? Ridiculous. Pete deserves this.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by mookiewilson View Post
    Agree with you. He could hit 50 again. I see him averaging 30 to 50 a year and .260 to .290 a year. .300 could be in his reach but unless he cuts down on those strikeouts, he'll see it maybe once in his lifetime. But that is my opinion. Anything can happen.

    He could wind up hitting 100 HR a year.

    Or 5 HR a year.
    We should find that writer and beat the crap out of him.

    Seriously, though, I'd like to see more from the first-half Pete where he was letting his natural power take over so that most of his homers were going to right field and right center. Even in the home run derby a lot of his homers went to right field. If he can get away from trying to jerk everything to the left side and just hit the ball hard wherever it is pitched, he could become an even better hitter.

    Of course, the opposite can happen too where he becomes even more pull happy and prone to deeper slumps. But we'll see.
    Last edited by fanofclendennon; 11-12-2019 at 11:45 AM.
    "Ain't got the call no more. Got a lot of sinful idears – but they seem kinda sensible...."

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    We should find that writer and beat the crap out of him.

    Seriously, though, I'd like to see more from the first-half Pete where he was letting his natural power take over so that most of his homers were going to right field and right center. Even in the home run derby a lot of his homers went to right field. If he can get away from trying to jerk everything to the left side and just hit the ball hard wherever it is pitched, he could become an even better hitter.

    Of course, the opposite can happen too where he becomes even more pull happy and prone to deeper slumps. But we'll see.
    Great point. Projections are mostly based on data with, IMO, little emphasis on makeup. Pete works hard at his craft, studies a ton of film, makes adjustments and adjustments to adjustments. I think he will improve defensively and as an overall hitter. I'm sure he knows that the Pete with power to RF, like Piazza and Wright, is the Pete who will have a longer, better career.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Futurist View Post
    Great point. Projections are mostly based on data with, IMO, little emphasis on makeup. Pete works hard at his craft, studies a ton of film, makes adjustments and adjustments to adjustments. I think he will improve defensively and as an overall hitter. I'm sure he knows that the Pete with power to RF, like Piazza and Wright, is the Pete who will have a longer, better career.
    Remarkable how he still gets a bad rap on his defensive based on a few bad plays. Over an entire season he showed nice range, good hands, an accurate arm, and a great ability to scoop throws out of the dirt. The only knock on him is that he's no Freddie Freeman. But geez!

    It worried me that he studied so much film and still was so pull happy. Would love to see him forget about hitting to left field for a while. He'd be a much better hitter with 35-40 homers than 50.
    "Ain't got the call no more. Got a lot of sinful idears – but they seem kinda sensible...."

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    Remarkable how he still gets a bad rap on his defensive based on a few bad plays. Over an entire season he showed nice range, good hands, an accurate arm, and a great ability to scoop throws out of the dirt. The only knock on him is that he's no Freddie Freeman. But geez!

    It worried me that he studied so much film and still was so pull happy. Would love to see him forget about hitting to left field for a while. He'd be a much better hitter with 35-40 homers than 50.
    Freddie isn't that good defensively. So thank God he isn't Freddie Freeman.


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

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