2020 NY Mets Minor League and Prospects

[The Futurist]

No issue with any of what you’re saying but curious where you’re getting your numbers. I’m using fangraphs and see 394 PA in AA, 26 PA in AAA and 42 in the major leagues. What that all extrapolates to is anybody’s guess


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No worries. I've been talking strictly in terms of ABs and you've mentioned PAs and at bats. Not a major difference but I was trying to stay consistent with the comp.

Not sure who said that Baty doesn't have DW's power, and my point is it's too early to tell, since it all came fast to DW in his age 21 year, and Baty still has room to fill out his larger frame.

[Brooklyndave]

That said. I think Baty's bat is ready; he will be more productive from the left side than Escobar and based on Escobar's 2022 defensive metrics, Baty wouldn't be replacing Brooks Robinson. I like Escobar, too and would love to keep him as a bench piece and DH.

How can you say that ," Baty's bat is ready"? I think he played less than 10 games in AAA. Most of 2022 he was playing in AA. He definately should start at Syracuse . While Escobar did not get off to a good start , he came on in the second half of the year especially in September.

[Larry M]

No worries. I've been talking strictly in terms of ABs and you've mentioned PAs and at bats. Not a major difference but I was trying to stay consistent with the comp.

Not sure who said that Baty doesn't have DW's power, and my point is it's too early to tell, since it all came fast to DW in his age 21 year, and Baty still has room to fill out his larger frame.

I can see Baty getting to be a 30 HR guy with the addition of 10lbs of muscle
Get his frame closer to the likes of Arenado and Machado…but don’t expect their defense

[Larry M]

How can you say that ," Baty's bat is ready"? I think he played less than 10 games in AAA. Most of 2022 he was playing in AA. He definately should start at Syracuse . While Escobar did not get off to a good start , he came on in the second half of the year especially in September.

I’m on board with Baty starting in AAA this season. I would expect Escobar at the minimum to get half the season to make a decision on whether or not we need to call up Baty

[The Futurist]

How can you say that ," Baty's bat is ready"? I think he played less than 10 games in AAA. Most of 2022 he was playing in AA. He definately should start at Syracuse . While Escobar did not get off to a good start , he came on in the second half of the year especially in September.

To clarify, I said "I think Baty's bat is ready." Do I know that? Of course not. I'm a 62 year-old man who has suffered the unfulfilled promise of everyone from Steve Chilcott to Lastings and FMart. It's a crap shoot. Baty might be lights out or ice cold in ST. Same for Escobar. My thought/hope is that he wins the job. Some half-assed rationale:
-More and more top prospects have been making the jump from AA to the majors.
-Baty got a taste of AAA and very briefly the majors, so it's not a totally abrupt jump.
-He's not a butcher on defense and Escobar was suprprisingly one of the worst in the game at 3B last year
-I'd rather start him earlier than in the midst of a pennant race (wouldn't whine if it's May/June, but not August).
-His swing, I believe, will keep him out of prolonged slumps (hence the highest floor rating from scouts)
-Escobar has had a fine career and had a great September. Love the guy and think he'll get plenty of time on this team, but there's also a chance that September was the anomoly last year, and his decline will continue.
-When Baty is not playing 3B I'd rather see him DH than Vogey, who essentially has one tool and kills our roster flexibility.

[Zmaster52]

I saw Baty rock a single 110 mph off of Max Fried and was immediately sold. Making such solid contact against arguably the best LHP in baseball? Yeah, sign me up.

Based off of the very limited games that I watched between the trio, I do like Baty the most and think he’s going to be the best of the bunch. He just needs to be given a fair chance to adjust.


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[Brooklyndave]

To clarify, I said "I think Baty's bat is ready." Do I know that? Of course not. I'm a 62 year-old man who has suffered the unfulfilled promise of everyone from Steve Chilcott to Lastings and FMart. It's a crap shoot. Baty might be lights out or ice cold in ST. Same for Escobar. My thought/hope is that he wins the job. Some half-assed rationale:
-More and more top prospects have been making the jump from AA to the majors.
-Baty got a taste of AAA and very briefly the majors, so it's not a totally abrupt jump.
-He's not a butcher on defense and Escobar was suprprisingly one of the worst in the game at 3B last year
-I'd rather start him earlier than in the midst of a pennant race (wouldn't whine if it's May/June, but not August).
-His swing, I believe, will keep him out of prolonged slumps (hence the highest floor rating from scouts)
-Escobar has had a fine career and had a great September. Love the guy and think he'll get plenty of time on this team, but there's also a chance that September was the anomoly last year, and his decline will continue.
-When Baty is not playing 3B I'd rather see him DH than Vogey, who essentially has one tool and kills our roster flexibility.

Yes, you did say that you ," think " that Baty's bat is ready . I did not quote you correctly . My bad.

I do not know how many players make the jump from AA to the majors . Michael Harris II did it for the Braves successfully but who else very recently did ?

In my opinion , Baty , Alvarez, Mauricio should all start in Syracuse . I am not sure about Vientos . I was under the impression that Pham was signed as a fourth OF as well as a right handed DH

Yes Vogelbach will not make you forget Keith Hernandez as a 1B nor Paul Blair as an OF but his main job is to be a left handed DH and/or a left handed pinch hitter. I am not sure he kills our roster flexibility. WE will still have Luis Guillorme as a utiltity IF and I am not sure if the team has any plans for Danny Mendick

[swbwtr]

How can you say that ," Baty's bat is ready"? I think he played less than 10 games in AAA. Most of 2022 he was playing in AA. He definately should start at Syracuse . While Escobar did not get off to a good start , he came on in the second half of the year especially in September.

For whatever it's worth, Baty will get a good look this coming Spring Training. If he looks like he can help at the MLB level he just might make the team. Vientos and Alvarez will get good looks in Spring Training as well.

In all likelihood all 3 will start the season in AAA. But there is always that surprise player in spring training. The Mets really don't have much in terms of pitching prospects in the high minors except for some of the depth pieces they picked up and most of those are not on the 40 man roster.

As for the other position players on the 40 man, I think Baty in particular has at least the same chance of going north with the Mets as does Danny Mendick and a better chance of making it than Mauricio. Khalil Lee had such a poor showing last season, he needs to reestablish himself in the eyes of Mets management and will likely start the season in AAA again.

Escobar will make the Mets and play his share of 3b and one of the Mets backups (with Guillorme) at 2b and ss.

[The Futurist]

Yes, you did say that you ," think " that Baty's bat is ready . I did not quote you correctly . My bad.

I do not know how many players make the jump from AA to the majors . Michael Harris II did it for the Braves successfully but who else very recently did ?

In my opinion , Baty , Alvarez, Mauricio should all start in Syracuse . I am not sure about Vientos . I was under the impression that Pham was signed as a fourth OF as well as a right handed DH

Yes Vogelbach will not make you forget Keith Hernandez as a 1B nor Paul Blair as an OF but his main job is to be a left handed DH and/or a left handed pinch hitter. I am not sure he kills our roster flexibility. WE will still have Luis Guillorme as a utiltity IF and I am not sure if the team has any plans for Danny Mendick

You raise a good point about whether skipping AAA is something of a trend, or me thinking I read it somewhere. Fangraphs did an article about this very question in 2021 that IMO was inconclusive. The best I could get from that is that older (college draft and/or over 21) players tend to skip more often than younger, which makes sense. Also, position players tended to skip AAA a bit more than pitchers. Then I found this article about the 2020 season, which saw a lot more players skipping AAA,

https://thechangeup.substack.com/p/s...t-of-baseballs

but in case you don't want to read it, Covid was a big factor in that, and probably influenced my take on this. As an "older" (19) high school pick who is now 23, Baty is a bit of an outlier. Not a ton of minor league experience, because of Covid, but no longer a kid. If I were the Mets I'd give him a chance to win a roster spot if not the starting job in spring training.

Regarding Vogelbach, who I am fond of because he's the opposite of a modern player born in a lab and raised by club teams and private instructors, I stand by my claim that he is one-dimensional and limits in-game flexibility. Sure, he hits righties to the tune of an .822 OPS and .364 OBP, but he grounded into 11 DPs in limited action, is a net negative on the base paths and, perhaps due to his physical state, has historically gotten worse in as the season grinds on. It's true, you can slug him in at 1B or maybe OF if every other person on the team is hobbled, but it would immediately make us a worse defensive team. Unfortunately Louis Guillorme's (or McNeil's or, to a lesser extent, even Baty's) positional flexibility doesn't negate Daniel Vogelbach's extreme one-dimensionality. He'd have to hit and get on base at sustained career high levels to be the regular platoon DH on a 100 plus win team with championship aspirations.

[swbwtr]

To clarify, I said "I think Baty's bat is ready." Do I know that? Of course not. I'm a 62 year-old man who has suffered the unfulfilled promise of everyone from Steve Chilcott to Lastings and FMart. It's a crap shoot. Baty might be lights out or ice cold in ST. Same for Escobar. My thought/hope is that he wins the job. Some half-assed rationale:
-More and more top prospects have been making the jump from AA to the majors.
-Baty got a taste of AAA and very briefly the majors, so it's not a totally abrupt jump.
-He's not a butcher on defense and Escobar was suprprisingly one of the worst in the game at 3B last year
-I'd rather start him earlier than in the midst of a pennant race (wouldn't whine if it's May/June, but not August).
-His swing, I believe, will keep him out of prolonged slumps (hence the highest floor rating from scouts)
-Escobar has had a fine career and had a great September. Love the guy and think he'll get plenty of time on this team, but there's also a chance that September was the anomoly last year, and his decline will continue.
-When Baty is not playing 3B I'd rather see him DH than Vogey, who essentially has one tool and kills our roster flexibility.

I am thinking it is less draft picks per year over the past several years, less minor league affiliates and the fact that a lot of teams load up their AAA teams with AAAA players and those on the 40 man MLB rosters who are not currently on the active MLB roster. The pandemic shortened season in 2020, where the minors didn't play at all, wreaked havoc in most teams' normal promotion rate as well. That said, Mauricio is really moving slowly and the others like Baty, Vientos and Alvarez have passed him by based on the prospect lists across all of baseball.

The Mets have unfortunately not developed any pitchers in recent years. Part of it is Allen not playing for 2 years now and some of the other top picks just not getting it done. And pitching selection in drafts and development was always the bellwether of the Mets. We will continue to pay high for pitching based on Cohen's moves over the past couple of years.