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  1. #2686
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Futurist View Post
    Makes sense now that we heard so little about him this winter. Tough break for him and the system. Maybe not the best comp for Mets fans, but didn't Matz miss 2 years for UCL? He can come back and still be very good 2024-ish. We just can't count on it, though, or whether it will be with the Mets.
    He has not pitched since 19, will miss 2023, he may pitch someone in 2024?


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  2. #2687
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    Feb 2007
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    Flushing, 10/16/69
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    In the minors? Sure.

  3. #2688
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    Mar 2010
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    Billy is going to have to infuse the system with college arms in the draft and maybe convert some of these position-less bats into near ready arms because when JV and max hang it up the cupboard is barren to backfill


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  4. #2689
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    Oct 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Futurist View Post
    You raise a good point about whether skipping AAA is something of a trend, or me thinking I read it somewhere. Fangraphs did an article about this very question in 2021 that IMO was inconclusive. The best I could get from that is that older (college draft and/or over 21) players tend to skip more often than younger, which makes sense. Also, position players tended to skip AAA a bit more than pitchers. Then I found this article about the 2020 season, which saw a lot more players skipping AAA,

    https://thechangeup.substack.com/p/s...t-of-baseballs

    but in case you don't want to read it, Covid was a big factor in that, and probably influenced my take on this. As an "older" (19) high school pick who is now 23, Baty is a bit of an outlier. Not a ton of minor league experience, because of Covid, but no longer a kid. If I were the Mets I'd give him a chance to win a roster spot if not the starting job in spring training.

    Regarding Vogelbach, who I am fond of because he's the opposite of a modern player born in a lab and raised by club teams and private instructors, I stand by my claim that he is one-dimensional and limits in-game flexibility. Sure, he hits righties to the tune of an .822 OPS and .364 OBP, but he grounded into 11 DPs in limited action, is a net negative on the base paths and, perhaps due to his physical state, has historically gotten worse in as the season grinds on. It's true, you can slug him in at 1B or maybe OF if every other person on the team is hobbled, but it would immediately make us a worse defensive team. Unfortunately Louis Guillorme's (or McNeil's or, to a lesser extent, even Baty's) positional flexibility doesn't negate Daniel Vogelbach's extreme one-dimensionality. He'd have to hit and get on base at sustained career high levels to be the regular platoon DH on a 100 plus win team with championship aspirations.
    I'm not a fan of skipping AAA. I remember the case of Daryl Strawberry. Technically speaking, he didn't entirely skip AAA, but was called up after a few weeks at AAA. I think he could have used a full year of AAA to further develop. Daryl came up in 1983, but it wasn't until 1987 that he really broke out, hitting 39,39, and 37 homers in each of the three out of the next four years. He had an off year in 1989 hitting only 29 homers.

    I think what happened was that Daryl was still developing and he had to learn at the MLB level rather than the minors. You could argue that he was a later bloomer, but I don't think that is the case. In fact the number Daryl put up from 1989 until he became a FA could probably have been even better, if we accept the rumors or facts, as the case may be, that he was using drugs and not keeping himself in the best of shape.

    Additionally, in today's environment of FA, I don't see how it hurts to have a player spend the year at AAA. Bringing the player up earlier just starts the engine running toward FA and, even if you sign the player before they get to FA, it ups the ante in terms of dollars.

    There is also the factor of what I call rookie mistakes. That is, things that players do because they don't have the wherewithal of more experienced players. Granted, you are not going to get all the knowledge in another year of AAA, but I would think it helps in further developing the mental aspect of baseball.

  5. #2690
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    Oct 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by AUDIT View Post
    I'm not a fan of skipping AAA. I remember the case of Daryl Strawberry. Technically speaking, he didn't entirely skip AAA, but was called up after a few weeks at AAA. I think he could have used a full year of AAA to further develop. Daryl came up in 1983, but it wasn't until 1987 that he really broke out, hitting 39,39, and 37 homers in each of the three out of the next four years. He had an off year in 1989 hitting only 29 homers.

    I think what happened was that Daryl was still developing and he had to learn at the MLB level rather than the minors. You could argue that he was a later bloomer, but I don't think that is the case. In fact the number Daryl put up from 1989 until he became a FA could probably have been even better, if we accept the rumors or facts, as the case may be, that he was using drugs and not keeping himself in the best of shape.

    Additionally, in today's environment of FA, I don't see how it hurts to have a player spend the year at AAA. Bringing the player up earlier just starts the engine running toward FA and, even if you sign the player before they get to FA, it ups the ante in terms of dollars.

    There is also the factor of what I call rookie mistakes. That is, things that players do because they don't have the wherewithal of more experienced players. Granted, you are not going to get all the knowledge in another year of AAA, but I would think it helps in further developing the mental aspect of baseball.
    Depends on the player. Some guys are more polished and more major league ready than others. These guys are more prepared for the majors as well than they were 40 or 50 years ago. They are facing higher level of competition at an earlier age, they are basically training all year round, and the consensus among scouts is the best talent is in AA. Mostly because AAA features a lot of journeymen retreads. The objective is to be able to determine who those players are.

    I dont think teams care that much about the arbitration clock starting if a player can produce at an earlier age. The end game is to win at the major league level. If a team feels a player is ready to be productive at the major league level and they are in position to win, go for it.

    Obviously not all guys will hit the ground running but the Braves only win the division last year because guys like Strider and Harris were brought up and were a huge part of the late regular season run.
    Last edited by metswon69; 02-13-2023 at 08:27 AM.

  6. #2691
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    And Gooden had arguably his best season as a rookie. He never played higher than high A ball at that time and was 19 years old. A phenom of his time.

  7. #2692
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    Quote Originally Posted by swbwtr View Post
    And Gooden had arguably his best season as a rookie. He never played higher than high A ball at that time and was 19 years old. A phenom of his time.
    Yes, and I believe the article that somebody posted a link to said something like 61% of the players who skipped AAA were pitchers.

    There are always exceptions as well. IN years past, those who argued for skipping AAA always mentioned Sammy Sosa as an example. If AAA were not important, then we should not have it.

    Seems to me, is there any arm in a player starting the season at AAA and, if that player is performing well, then bring that player up? What have you lost? Lets say it is 16 games into the season and that player then moves up from AAA. IN 16 games, it is very unlikely that not having that player on the roster would have cost the team a win.

    You mentioned Gooden. By the same token, one could argue Megill, whom some here have called for sending him to the minors. I disagree with that, but you could make a case clearly that he was brought up too early. How many Goodens are there?

  8. #2693
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    Dec 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by AUDIT View Post
    Yes, and I believe the article that somebody posted a link to said something like 61% of the players who skipped AAA were pitchers.

    There are always exceptions as well. IN years past, those who argued for skipping AAA always mentioned Sammy Sosa as an example. If AAA were not important, then we should not have it.

    Seems to me, is there any arm in a player starting the season at AAA and, if that player is performing well, then bring that player up? What have you lost? Lets say it is 16 games into the season and that player then moves up from AAA. IN 16 games, it is very unlikely that not having that player on the roster would have cost the team a win.

    You mentioned Gooden. By the same token, one could argue Megill, whom some here have called for sending him to the minors. I disagree with that, but you could make a case clearly that he was brought up too early. How many Goodens are there?
    Drew Gooden - Former NBA player, Dylan Gooden -LB University of Maryland, Tarique Gooden,- Jamaican 400 M Hurdler, Tavares Gooden- LB University of Miami, Carlotta Gooden-Sprinter from Barbados, Jarret Gooden- Receiver from Weber State, Trinity Gooden - Basketball player at Rice , To name just a few !!!

  9. #2694
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    Oct 2019
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    Mets farm system is rated the 5th best........
    https://metsmerizedonline.com/baseba...5-farm-system/

    The Braves; are ranked 30th. That's understandable. Even more amazing for them is hit they took with that scandal a few years back and they still had some good prospects.

    Mets were ranked 16th last year and 23rd in 2021. Despite the so called Rocker fiasco, the Mets had a very good draft in 2022. Going forward, however, is going to be tough.

    It will be interesting to see if the Mets are in the mix for Ohtani and what it would take to get him. Right off the bat you have to think Alvarez as the center of any package. If and when the Mets trade for Ohtani, they should also ask for the Angel's O'hoppe in return. He is solid defensively and major league ready.

    Other than Alvarez, I don't know what it would take in addition to get Ohtani. But it would certainly clean out a bunch of Met prospects. If I am LA I ask for Alvarez, Baty, Tidwell + 2 more players/prospects. I'm not giving the Mets credit or value for Mauricio and Vientos, unless the Mets are giving them away, or maybe as the two throw ins. I don't think the Mets would want to give up both Alvarez and Baty. But who knows? And then maybe ya gotta pay Ohtani $60M a year?

  10. #2695
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    Don't think the Mets would trade for Ohtani

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  11. #2696
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    The one thing is that IF the Mets where to deal Alvarez and Baty they still have Parada and Mauricio as back up options for those same positions.

    Just a thought, but thatís what a deeper farm is able to do. You can deal some top prospects and still have others.

    Also they have lots of draft picks in the top 5 rounds this year, so more depth.


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  12. #2697
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    Oct 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brooklyndave View Post
    Yes, you did say that you ," think " that Baty's bat is ready . I did not quote you correctly . My bad.

    I do not know how many players make the jump from AA to the majors . Michael Harris II did it for the Braves successfully but who else very recently did ?

    In my opinion , Baty , Alvarez, Mauricio should all start in Syracuse . I am not sure about Vientos . I was under the impression that Pham was signed as a fourth OF as well as a right handed DH

    Yes Vogelbach will not make you forget Keith Hernandez as a 1B nor Paul Blair as an OF but his main job is to be a left handed DH and/or a left handed pinch hitter. I am not sure he kills our roster flexibility. WE will still have Luis Guillorme as a utiltity IF and I am not sure if the team has any plans for Danny Mendick
    Vientos as well, unless somehow Ruf founders again.

  13. #2698
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    Oct 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by kyubi256 View Post
    Don't think the Mets would trade for Ohtani

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
    Well, I have always said I don't think Ohtani will be a FA. Moreover, any team that trades for him will sign him immediately as part of the trade.

    The Mets have as much of a chance of getting Ohtani as anybody else, unless of course Ohtani is set on staying on the West Coast. Then it will likely be between SD and the Dodgers. Maybe SF would have a shot, but it is not the same as being in the LA-SD corridor.

    In terms of trades, some team will definitely overpay for Ohtani as far as prospects given up.

  14. #2699
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    Mar 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by AUDIT View Post
    Well, I have always said I don't think Ohtani will be a FA. Moreover, any team that trades for him will sign him immediately as part of the trade.

    The Mets have as much of a chance of getting Ohtani as anybody else, unless of course Ohtani is set on staying on the West Coast. Then it will likely be between SD and the Dodgers. Maybe SF would have a shot, but it is not the same as being in the LA-SD corridor.

    In terms of trades, some team will definitely overpay for Ohtani as far as prospects given up.
    There is no F'ing way signs he with the Angels or any that trades him.

    He will be a FA. He will get a 13 year deal for 550-600.

  15. #2700
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    Oct 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by sieve00 View Post
    There is no F'ing way signs he with the Angels or any that trades him.

    He will be a FA. He will get a 13 year deal for 550-600.
    I didn't say he would sign with the Angels. LA is a reference to the Dodgers. If you don't understand something, then just ask for clarification, rather than just trolling.

    "signs he?" Is this Yoda speaking?

    If you've got a crystal ball then maybe you should buy some stocks!

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