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  1. #286
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    5,561
    Hereís how Iím starting to view things...

    While I think it would be hard for me to pass on Kinlaw if heís there, I would ultimately still trade the pick. Losing Day along with Buckner makes this seem a bit counterintuitive but, and after missing out on a short term solution like Suh, Iím half-inclined to invest my faith in Solomon Thomas.

    Thomas showed flashes last year and should play with more consistency working out of Bucknerís spot. If we can obtain a strong enough return of early round draft capital for pick 13, then we can take an immediate rotational DT with a good upside sometime in the middle rounds.

    I think our more pressing needs are WR, CB, and OL. If we trade pick 13 - something Rap has been advocating for - I think we can fill all of those needs with quality players in the first 2 rounds. If I sit on the pick until draft time, hereís what I do...

    WILL NOT PASS ON
    Okudah (Likely going to the Lions or Jags, IMO)
    Wills (Likely gone)

    WOULD TAKE A MAJOR HAUL FOR
    Jeudy
    Lamb
    Ruggs
    Wirfs
    Thomas
    Henderson

    If three QBs go ahead of us - which is at least a possibility if not likely - then we should have at a couple of the players listed above to choose from. Outside of those players, I think I would trade the pick provided a decent enough return package is on the table.

    Our draft could look something like this if a team like Minnesota is willing to deal for a big playmaker...

    * Trade with Min; #13 for #22 and #25

    That would give us picks 22, 25, and 31. Iíd use two of those picks to target players like the following who should all be in that range...

    Higgins
    Jefferson
    AJ Terrell
    Kristian Fulton
    Trevon Diggs
    Shenault

    I think we can land a quality CB or WR at 31 so I keep 31 and likely trade 22 or 25 to get back into the 2nd and 3rd, using the pick I keep to take the best WR or CB available. If higher quality players at positions of need slide down to 22 and 25 - as we saw happen to a lot of high quality players last year - I use both 22 and 25 and dangle 31 for more draft capital instead.

    Blast me for saying this, but I could see a surprising fall for someone like Ruggs, Lamb, Wirfs, Henderson, or Thomas sliding down to the early 20ís simply due to the dynamic of teams drafting for needs and the depth of first round quality.

  2. #287
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Posts
    3,257
    Iím all for trading down and I think Lynch would too. He wants those day 2 picks, which he has none of at the moment. A good candidate would be Miami, who has 3 first round picks (5, 18 and 26). Iíd give them the 13th and a pick in the 4th for the 18th, their second (56th) and third round (70th) picks. Theyíd still have the 31st pick.

    18th - Kristian Fulton - CB, LSU
    I think heís the second best corner in the draft behind Okudah.

  3. #288
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    14,006
    I think that too many people think that because there is depth at a position that you can pass on elite prospects. I'm sorry, but there is a huge difference between Jeudy/Ruggs and Jefferson/Shenault. There is a huge difference between Okudah/Henderson and Diggs/Terrell.

  4. #289
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    31,101
    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers211221 View Post
    I think that too many people think that because there is depth at a position that you can pass on elite prospects. I'm sorry, but there is a huge difference between Jeudy/Ruggs and Jefferson/Shenault. There is a huge difference between Okudah/Henderson and Diggs/Terrell.
    WR in particular has the biggest historical drop off from the first 15 picks in the draft. I don't see how they pass on Lamb/Jeudy if they are on the board at 13.

  5. #290
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    31,101
    It's funny how Wirfs is high on boards now when a few months ago people were saying he wasn't worth a first round pick.

    Lynchahan have some earned faith in their ability to find DBs and DTs after the first round, so I'm not TOO worried about that at the moment. Need to invest at OL in this draft.

  6. #291
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
    31,880
    Quote Originally Posted by Scoots View Post
    It's funny how Wirfs is high on boards now when a few months ago people were saying he wasn't worth a first round pick.

    Lynchahan have some earned faith in their ability to find DBs and DTs after the first round, so I'm not TOO worried about that at the moment. Need to invest at OL in this draft.
    Wirfs gets lazy. His technique falls apart and he relies on his athleticism and that won't fly in the NFL. It's not common for a Hawkeye to have that issue
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  7. #292
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    5,561
    Quote Originally Posted by Lakers211221 View Post
    I think that too many people think that because there is depth at a position that you can pass on elite prospects. I'm sorry, but there is a huge difference between Jeudy/Ruggs and Jefferson/Shenault. There is a huge difference between Okudah/Henderson and Diggs/Terrell.
    Iím not suggesting thereís not a large difference between tier one and two. Iím suggesting that we donít have the draft depth to fill all our needs and answering the following questions for myself...

    1) Would I rather have one elite prospect at 13 and hopefully turn 31 into two quality day-two picks, or would I rather use 13 to leverage better quality picks and still have two day-one picks?

    2) Do I trust that Shanny can draft a dynamic tier two WR prospect that fits his system?

    The key word here is ďprospectĒ. Elite prospects do sometimes fall short of expectations, and lower tier prospects do sometimes outshine theirs.

    Shanahan passed on more highly touted receivers to land Deebo. Deebo wasnít the best WR prospect in last yearís draft, but heís since thrown his hat in the ring of best WRs from the class largely due to his fit in this system and how Shanahan deploys him in it. Shenault, though less polished as a receiver, looks a lot like Deebo to me and he undoubtedly fits the description of what Shanny covets; shifty, quick, explosive after the catch, and can line up all over the field.

    To be clear, Iíd be stoked if we grab Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Henderson, etc. at 13. Iím only suggesting that if we trade back for a major haul with one of those players still on the board, Iím good with that too.
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; Today at 11:48 AM.

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