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  1. #511
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I'd love it. But I think the organization is committed to Thomas/O'Neill and eventually Carlson being full time outfielders.

    If they didn't want Ozuna back at a QO level price, I dunno why they'd chase Joc who costs talent.

    Though, Joc is owed almost exactly what the Cards have left over to spend. So maybe they can make a deal work, and we wouldn't need Stripling to make it work. Joc for two mid level prospects, I'd be plenty happy. Cards fans would hate him though. And quickly. He is just as patient as Carpenter at the plate, and won't hit .250
    You're wrong. He plays very good defense and would likely rotate with Oneill with the righty/lefty matchups. He would hit higher than .250. Pulling more **** out your ***
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  2. #512
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    You're wrong. He plays very good defense and would likely rotate with Oneill with the righty/lefty matchups. He would hit higher than .250. Pulling more **** out your ***
    He's never hit .250 in a season in his entire 6 year career, and is a career .242 hitter vs righties. Why is he suddenly going to hit over .250 now?

    I dunno why you have such a problem with every thing I say, but I always back it up, nothing is ever pulled out of my ***.

    Btw, Carpenter and Pederson career

    Carpenter - .269/.372/.462 - 129 wRC+ - 4.04 fWAR per 650 PA - 13.3 BB%, 19.7 K%, .193 ISO
    Pederson - .233/.339/.474 - 120 wRC+ - 3.58 fWAR per 650 PA - 12.3 BB%, 24.2 K%, .242 ISO

    Now, Pederson obviously had the better 2019, and is significantly younger. But he's the same type of player as Carpenter is, but he walks less, strikes outs more, hits for a lower average, but has more power.

    The Cards fans that dislike Carpenter would HATE Pederson

    Pederson is a solid defender in the corners though.

    I'm not against getting him at all, but Cards fans are going to hate him considering his player type.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 02-10-2020 at 02:15 AM.

  3. #513
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    I'm just saying you expect Carp to bounce back and be 20 points higher and expect Edman to be 20 points lower. It's crazy to me. Edman does play better defense too. You say it's miniscule but it really isn't. He covers more ground, better arm, better reaction time. He's all around the better player
    20 point swings in wRC+ are based on the players histories. Obviously 2019 could be a start of a trend in both players, where Edman got better, and Carpenter got worse. But when you look at their periphs, and you look at their histories, it's hard to believe that's the case. Right now, Carpenter is projected to have a 110 wRC+ and Edman a 95. I think it's a little low on both players. Edman around 105, Carpenter around 115.

    Defense absolutely matters. But the differences in the two players is being grossly exaggerated.

    Edman converted 2 more balls in the zone, and 5 more balls outside of the zone on 380 inning basis. Over the course of a season, Edman would basically create one additional win for the Cardinals by playing third base over Carpenter. If they come out hitting equally, you'd rather have Edman playing. But we should expect Carpenter to be the better hitter, even with a bad 2019. And if he is a 115 wRC+ hitter vs Edman's 105, they would be equal in value (both basically 3 win players).

    We want that to happen, because that means Edman can raise the floor of all of the other positions, and move to third later in games to let Carpenter rest when we have the lead and improve the infield defense.

    This is the scenario we want to see happen.

    It's way too early to say Edman is the better all around player than Carpenter, who has been the teams best player for the last 7 years, while Edman was a 6th rounder out of college 4 years ago and has half a big league season under his belt.

    I would caution the optimism with Edman.
    Alex Cintron's 2003 was just like this. Switch hitting utility player who can help you in multiple places, age 24 season, unknown as a prospect, came out and hit .317/.359/.489 in a little more than half a season, had a 2.7 rWAR season, and was given full time duties the next year and completely plummeted as a player.

    I think Edman is probably a little more like Neil Walker. Who followed his age 24 season where he hit .296/.349/462 - 119 OPS+ and 2.1 rWAR season with a 5 year run (rest of Edman's team control) with a .269/.337/.429 - 113 OPS+ and 3.34 rWAR/650 PA pace.

    That sounds pretty close to Edman moving forward, except he's going to play multiple positions.

    Which is a great player to have, especially because he can help secure injuries on the field, raise the depth everywhere, and allows players like Carpenter to attempt to rebound. Carpenter should rebound, and while I realize you don't think he will, most factors and indicators suggest we should be optimistic of that.

  4. #514
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    I expect both players to hit at or close to their career averages. That isnít excessive. Carp did just fine in August and September.

  5. #515
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    Neil Walker had a career .763 ops in the minors and a career .766 ops in the majors.

    Alex Cintron had a career .730 ops in the minors and a career .707 ops in the majors.

    Matt Carpenter had a career .850 ops in the minors and a career .835 ops in the majors.

    Ben Zobrist had a career .882 ops in the minors and a career .783 ops in the majors.

    Tommy Edman had a career .768 ops in the minors and .850 ops in the majors


    Statistically... Edman should probably have a career MLB ops between .700-.760


    Certainly would accept a .760 ops. However, .850 for an entire season is not likely. I hope I'm wrong. It'll be a great way to lose $50! The Cardinals are a much better team with him hitting like he did last year. I hope he and Carp are both 5 WAR players!

  6. #516
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    Agreed

  7. #517
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    Going through other player's OPS with .845-.855 ops in 2019.... career minors/career majors

    Mike Moustakas .841/.751
    Starling Marte .837/.793
    Javier Baez .887/.794
    Yasmani Grandal .898/.794
    Matt Chapman .844/.841
    Ryan Braun .948/.893
    Trea Turner .825/.816
    Francisco Lindor .743/.841 ************** (Let's root for this, but Lindor was 21vs.24 when he was brought up)
    Ozzie Albies .789/.805 (small improvement, I wouldn't be completely astonished if Tommy did this)
    Max Kepler .809/.764


    Lindor obviously is a major stand out. Also, Mike Trout falls in the bracket of having gotten more than .050 points better at the big league level. It does not happen often. Trout was 19 when he was brought up... so, I would guess that the learning curve has something to do with it. I didn't find a (aside from Edman) College baseball player who improved from College/Minors to MLB.

  8. #518
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    Going through other player's OPS with .845-.855 ops in 2019.... career minors/career majors

    Mike Moustakas .841/.751
    Starling Marte .837/.793
    Javier Baez .887/.794
    Yasmani Grandal .898/.794
    Matt Chapman .844/.841
    Ryan Braun .948/.893
    Trea Turner .825/.816
    Francisco Lindor .743/.841 ************** (Let's root for this, but Lindor was 21vs.24 when he was brought up)
    Ozzie Albies .789/.805 (small improvement, I wouldn't be completely astonished if Tommy did this)
    Max Kepler .809/.764


    Lindor obviously is a major stand out. Also, Mike Trout falls in the bracket of having gotten more than .050 points better at the big league level. It does not happen often. Trout was 19 when he was brought up... so, I would guess that the learning curve has something to do with it. I didn't find a (aside from Edman) College baseball player who improved from College/Minors to MLB.
    Yeah, anyone who gets called up 22 or younger will create some outliers because those guys were moved aggressively for other reasons (physical tools).

    You will find some outliers that are older of course, but it's going to be rare for a 24 year old college baseball player to be 100 points better in OPS in the big leagues compared to his minor league career. Guys like Aaron Judge do fit this bill, who played his first full MLB season at 25 years old. .842 OPS minor leagues to .952 OPS major leagues.

    But that's pretty rare.

    If you look through the list of players who qualified as rookies in their age 24 season over the last 20 years and played college baseball, Judge is one of the only one's. The average minor league OPS vs Major League OPS for this group (min 200 PA) is .64 points lower in the big leagues (which would give Tommy a MLB career OPS of .705).

    For every Aaron Judge, there are 3 Chris Coghlan's, who Edman is much more like than Judge.

    I'm rooting for Edman, but I would be shocked if he had a .850 OPS again. His batted ball rate was that of a 106 wRC+ season, and that sounds about right for him.


    When you look at Edman, I feel like Neil Walker is the best case, while Alex Cintron and Chris Coghlan are the worst case.

    Others to compare:
    Yunel Escobar
    Martin Prado
    Devon Travis


    We really need to lower our expectations from him though. I think a 106 wRC+, good defense at 6+ positions is a great player to have. that's a 2-3 win player who can play everywhere for you and help you out as a whole.


    This isn't an Edman vs Carpenter debate either. Both have roles on this 2020 team.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 02-10-2020 at 03:16 PM.

  9. #519
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    Good to see the same three people keeping this place going after months (and after being snitched on *cough)

    Anyway not that moves cant happen but they are less likely to happen with spring training almost fully underway.
    Can not see anything of significance happening now after it hasnt happened all winter (moving carp or fowler would have been significant)

    As far as this little bet about Marp v Edman

    Marp didnt have a good August last year. He his .238 with a .745 ops

    September was statistically better in the month with the least amount of AB's (minus July where he only had 15 of them) But when you break down his last 30 games:

    Last 30: .267 avg .866 ops

    Last 15: .237 avg .867 ops

    Last 7: .200 avg .773 ops

    Just off of that seems he had a nice little run to start that set of days/games then fell off marginally over two weeks then really fell off again after that.

    His second half splits are substantially better than his first half splits and even thats not saying a lot but its saying a lot less when you consider he had half as many AB's in the second half and spent almost a month in the minors. If he was going good he wouldnt have been down there for nearly a month and he would have got his AB's at this level. There isnt a sign he was coming back around at the end of last year, the splits tell a much different story. Hope he finds it though.

    Same thing can be said for DeJong. Looked like one of the best SS in baseball with his bat and glove combo in April. Didn't have one month after April where he cracked .235 with his average only had one other month (July) where is ops met or pushed past .750 If he can figure out how to do more than two things, field and hit bombs. He could be a hell of a player. Heres hoping.

  10. #520
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    Good to see the same three people keeping this place going after months (and after being snitched on *cough)

    Anyway not that moves cant happen but they are less likely to happen with spring training almost fully underway.
    Can not see anything of significance happening now after it hasnt happened all winter (moving carp or fowler would have been significant)

    As far as this little bet about Marp v Edman

    Marp didnt have a good August last year. He his .238 with a .745 ops

    September was statistically better in the month with the least amount of AB's (minus July where he only had 15 of them) But when you break down his last 30 games:

    Last 30: .267 avg .866 ops

    Last 15: .237 avg .867 ops

    Last 7: .200 avg .773 ops

    Just off of that seems he had a nice little run to start that set of days/games then fell off marginally over two weeks then really fell off again after that.

    His second half splits are substantially better than his first half splits and even thats not saying a lot but its saying a lot less when you consider he had half as many AB's in the second half and spent almost a month in the minors. If he was going good he wouldnt have been down there for nearly a month and he would have got his AB's at this level. There isnt a sign he was coming back around at the end of last year, the splits tell a much different story. Hope he finds it though.

    Same thing can be said for DeJong. Looked like one of the best SS in baseball with his bat and glove combo in April. Didn't have one month after April where he cracked .235 with his average only had one other month (July) where is ops met or pushed past .750 If he can figure out how to do more than two things, field and hit bombs. He could be a hell of a player. Heres hoping.
    Welcome back Farty!!! You have actually been missed. It's kind of quiet in the offseason, especially without you.

    With Carp, we can break things down however we want. I get that. His August power wasn't there, but his OBP was .364 for the month. That was a good sign he was seeing the ball in my opinion. September's stats were much closer to what I'm hoping for with him going into 2020. It's no guarantee. I get that.

    According to baseball-reference....

    Last 28 days... .302/.406/.566/.972
    Last 14 days... .237/.341/.526/.867
    Last 7 days... .167/.259/.417/.676

    Certainly he cooled off... and certainly he was incredibly hot to begin the month. But, as a hole, he had an OPS+ of 134 for September/October. I would absolutely take that. If Carp can get 85-95 AB's per month, with an OPS+ of 130 or more... he'll be worth 4-5 wins. I hope it doesn't, but I expect that to be Edman's.

  11. #521
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    Cardinals sign Brad Miller, hopefully to replace Munoz on the roster. $2M Leaves us with around $5M budget room. Great bench player for us, I've wanted him the last 3 years, happy to finally have him.

  12. #522
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    Championship!! ^^

  13. #523
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerfan85 View Post
    Championship!! ^^
    Why do people get all sarcastic when teams sign good depth players and say stuff like that?

    You have to have players on the roster that aren't studs. He's going to make 1/85th of our payroll this year.

  14. #524
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    Yay
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  15. #525
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Why do people get all sarcastic when teams sign good depth players and say stuff like that?

    You have to have players on the roster that aren't studs. He's going to make 1/85th of our payroll this year.
    Why do you get so upset over a silly comment??

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