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  1. #376
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    Why not just sign Donaldson? Save money and don't block 3b long term.

  2. #377
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    Why not just sign Donaldson? Save money and don't block 3b long term.
    Only way Arenado is a Cardinal is if one of Fowler/Carpenter, or MAYBE C. Martinez aren't Cardinals.

    And that is also going to include good prospects if that also happens.


    Will Cards fans be happy if the trade is

    Arenado for Gorman, Fowler, O'Neill, and Thompson? Probably some money coming back to STL

    That's a lot for 2 years of Arenado at $70M

    Gorman could be our long term third basemen.

    We can't afford Donaldson at this moment. Arenado is only affordable if a bad contract is off the books. We have $10-15M in budget room.

  3. #378
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    Jan 2009
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    628
    If Nolan A. agrees to let his contract go through and not opt out I would say do it. Although I just dont see it happening. Might be a little easier at the trade deadline?

  4. #379
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    I think Gorman will have a break out year like Carlson did last year.

  5. #380
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    Jeff Passan (Verified account) @JeffPassan
    3m3 minutes ago

    Quick Nolan Arenado update in yes-and-no form, per sources:

    - Yes, the Rockies and Cardinals are talking.
    - No, the talks haven't gone anywhere.
    - No, the exchange of names has not been productive.
    - Yes, it's still considered a long shot that Arenado is dealt in the short-term.

  6. #381
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Jeff Passan (Verified account) @JeffPassan
    3m3 minutes ago

    Quick Nolan Arenado update in yes-and-no form, per sources:

    - Yes, the Rockies and Cardinals are talking.
    - No, the talks haven't gone anywhere.
    - No, the exchange of names has not been productive.
    - Yes, it's still considered a long shot that Arenado is dealt in the short-term.
    That's a good sign that the Cardinals aren't going to overpay.

    Arrenado's contract is incredibly close to market value. So... any prospects we move should be designed to create cap space. (moving bad contracts or just getting money back)

    I think the Rockies probably don't like that idea too much.

  7. #382
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    CMart/ONeill/Gorman/Thompson for Arenado plus cash.
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  8. #383
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    Nov 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Then Rendon?

    fWAR and neutralized slash
    2019
    Arenado - 5.9 fWAR/5.7 rWAR - .278/.338/.514
    Rendon - 7.0 fWAR/6.3 rWAR - .296/.386/.552

    Since start of 2018
    Arenado - 11.7 fWAR/11.3 rWAR - .282/.350/.530
    Rendon - 13.2 fWAR/10.5 rWAR - .303/.381/.548

    Since start of 2017
    Arenado - 17.4 fWAR/18.4 rWAR - .281/.347/.530
    Rendon - 19.9 fWAR/16.4 rWAR - .298/.383/.534


    Rendon is about 10 months older, so that matters a little as well. But Rendon is clearly coming off the better year, and you can easily argue he's been the better player the last 3 years. Only thing he's done worse is rWAR, but nothing else (and that's due to Total Zone)

    Rendon and Arenado in free agency should secure pretty similar deals.

    And Arenado has a contract that mirrors Rendon.


    We are simply not in on Arenado unless it's one of Fowler/Carpenter going back. Otherwise, we would have just engaged in Rendon and paid him a market level contract. Because that's what we have to pay Arenado if we acquire him.

    Only way it works is if we can get short term salary relief in the form of a roadblock player.

    Fortunately for the Rockies, they can buy some prospects by doing that.


    People have to stop forgetting that you trade for players contracts and their talent. Not just their talent. It's been decades since players were traded based on their talent only in Major League Baseball. Their contracts absolutely matter now.
    Who's the better defender? Oh, Nolan, by a mile. Adjust the numbers all you want. I get that Colorado makes hitters better. But when great players leave colorado, they still hit. Nolan's power isnt going to go away, nor his walks. He will still be a .850-.900 ops guy who gives you ++ defense. Yes, hes better than Rendon.
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  9. #384
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    Oct 2017
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    Who's the better defender? Oh, Nolan, by a mile. Adjust the numbers all you want. I get that Colorado makes hitters better. But when great players leave colorado, they still hit. Nolan's power isnt going to go away, nor his walks. He will still be a .850-.900 ops guy who gives you ++ defense. Yes, hes better than Rendon.
    Nolan is a better defender... even though Rendon is still one of the best defensive 3b's in baseball. Rendon is better offensively... he's probably a consistent .900 ops guy. Nolan is better defensively...


    Nolan being a year younger is good. But this is INCREDIBLY close... and I honestly want the guy that hits. If we were talking SS, CF or Catcher... sure. But at the hot corner, I take the hitter.

  10. #385
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    Who's the better defender? Oh, Nolan, by a mile. Adjust the numbers all you want. I get that Colorado makes hitters better. But when great players leave colorado, they still hit. Nolan's power isnt going to go away, nor his walks. He will still be a .850-.900 ops guy who gives you ++ defense. Yes, hes better than Rendon.
    Yes, he will give you those things. But Rendon will continue to carry a significantly better AVG/OBP, and likely Slugging.

    Rendon has been better, I don't even know why you'd argue otherwise. Rendon is coming off a 1.010 OPS season. Arenado has never done that and he plays in Colorado.

    Regardless, there isn't some huge surplus in value in Arenado's contract, as Rendon is a clear comparable.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 01-14-2020 at 07:03 PM.

  11. #386
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    CMart/ONeill/Gorman/Thompson for Arenado plus cash.
    That would be quite the overpay from our end. Unless that cash is like $50M+

  12. #387
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    That would be quite the overpay from our end. Unless that cash is like $50M+
    O'Neill has no future here, Thompson is redundant, Gorman has a very high ceiling but a very low floor. CMart helps with the salary and hes insane and no one knows which you're going to get.
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  13. #388
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    O'Neill has no future here, Thompson is redundant, Gorman has a very high ceiling but a very low floor. CMart helps with the salary and hes insane and no one knows which you're going to get.
    O'Neill has 5 years of control left, and in this moment, is our OD left fielder
    Thompson is a throw back to Michael Wacha. Thompson is right now, entering the 2013 season for Michael Wacha. Now, Wacha was better in his first stint in pro ball after his college season, but they are very similar pitchers at this point. Thompson is unlikely to see the big leagues this year, but he certainly could reach it. And could easily become our best pitching prospect within 12 months from now. Though, I suspect Liberatore will remain there
    Gorman is a high ceiling, low floor player. And I imagine he's a must in an Arenado trade
    C Mart does help with the salary a bit, and he has some retaining trade value. But the Cards would be selling rather low on him.

    In the end.

    Arenado has roughly $30M in surplus value
    O'Neill has roughly $15M
    Thompson has roughly $15M
    Gorman has roughly $45M
    and C-Mart is basically neutral

    Factor in the opt-outs, the salary, the budgets, etc. We are overpaying by about Gorman in your proposal. So unless the Rockies are giving $40-50M to make your deal work, we can't do it. And we'd need that money right now to afford to supplement the roster around Arenado (we need a starter or reliever and Ozuna basically)

    If we did that trade, and they gave us $45M, $22.5M each in 2020 and 2021.

    And if we signed Ozuna 3/$45M, we do remain under the luxury tax

    And our OD payroll (assuming just a straight $15M per year to Ozuna) would be $185.8M, so our max room.

    So we'd need to replace Martinez internally. But we could certainly absorb it.

    But I think it's an overpay, unless they give us that much in cash, which I don't know why they would.

  14. #389
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    Feb 2010
    Posts
    14,418
    Donaldson to the Twins.

  15. #390
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    Jul 2010
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    Cards added Austin Dean

    https://www.barstoolsports.com/baseb...stin-deans-arm

    This is cool

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