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  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    I actually would be fine with your suggested deal, except that we would be about 20 million over where they would like to be financially. It's a bad year to spend, because we had nothing coming off the books. (only Ozuna, and that money was already taken up).

    If this team is going to be in the same place a year from now... I'll happily take it. That's the playoffs. Make the playoffs, and you have a chance!
    Cards can afford 190 million dollar payroll for a year. If they choose not too thats different but for discussion among fans its irrelevant.

    Bradley off the book after 2020
    Wong traded, no 2020 option on the books
    Molina gone, another twenty million off the books come winter of 2020

    Just me, playoffs or no playoffs. I'd rather have XB, DeJong, Goldschmidt, Carlson, and hopefully Gorman knocking at the door this time next year than to have just DeJong, Goldschmidt, Carlson, and hopefully Gorman knocking.

    This team isnt one bat away from being a WS player come this time next year. This offense was god awful in the playoffs last year and one of the two guys that hit regularly for the god awful offense wont be here. Thats kind of a problem. Banking on DeJong to finally put together a full year, is kind of a problem. He may do it, but he hasnt and there arent any indicators after last season that hes close to it.

    Remember three or four years ago when Diaz and Holiday went down to injuries after being hit on the hand/wrist? Remember what the middle of our lineup looked like? We are starring at the same type of situation if the in house options dont work out next season, only having Goldschmidt in the middle and if that happens he will never get a thing to hit.

    We got lucky that the Dodgers ran away with the best record in the NL. No way we would have won that series and probably would have lost to Milwaukee in a wildcard game. We have never hit Hader, everything plays out the same for us as it did the Nats. We dont get that hit off of Hader.

    Reds are the team to beat right now, sorry. They have the pitching, they bolstered their offense, probably arent done making move. Brewers are retooling in some way by not keeping Moose, Grandal and Shaw. Cubs can get at least prospects if not a player for player swap if the move one or both of Bryant and Contreras. Cards are claiming they dont have room to do anything. Maybe they dont but they should be looking to retool the team and be smart enough to move on from their bad decisions by either trading those decisions away if possible or trading for players to replace them and relegate them to the bench. XB probably cant be had, thats why I made it clear its alternative thinking. If you dont think the deal works one way for either us or Boston (not enough in return for them or us sending too much out) thats cool.

    This team has three things we know for next year. 1) Goldschmidt even in a down year can give you thirty and a hundred 2)Flaherty looks like an Ace 3) Molina is a year older. Thats literally it. We know what we have with some others given the seasons of sample size and we dont know what we have with the rest. Projections are great. Maybe this team is a 91 win team, it could just as easily be a 75 win team with no injuries. Does analytics ever discuss the low end of the projections, especially with a team full of question marks and aging players like this one?

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cuban Bee View Post
    Projections are great. Maybe this team is a 91 win team, it could just as easily be a 75 win team with no injuries. Does analytics ever discuss the low end of the projections, especially with a team full of question marks and aging players like this one?
    Much more likely that this is a 91 win team than a 75 win team. For a team to lose 16 extra games in a season, you would probably need to lose your 3 or 4 best players for the entire year, or have those 3 or 4 players completely bust without anyone stepping up. I would say the bottom end of the 2020 Cardinals is 84 wins and the top is probably 94.

    Sure... the owners can spend however much they want. But, our ownership has come out and stated they want the payroll to be close to what it was last year.

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    Much more likely that this is a 91 win team than a 75 win team. For a team to lose 16 extra games in a season, you would probably need to lose your 3 or 4 best players for the entire year, or have those 3 or 4 players completely bust without anyone stepping up. I would say the bottom end of the 2020 Cardinals is 84 wins and the top is probably 94.

    Sure... the owners can spend however much they want. But, our ownership has come out and stated they want the payroll to be close to what it was last year.
    For us to be a 75 win team, that means we only had 27 WAR from the entire team. So like 13 on pitching, and 14 on offense. That means of our 8 starters, they only averaged 1.5 WAR each. That isn't happening with this team. Wong and DeJong are 7 WAR themselves, and even if Paulie regresses, he's still likely a 3 win player every year. That means 4 WAR among Catcher, Third base, and the entire outfield. We'll easily top that.

    And for pitching. 13 WAR says 3 pitchers throw 2 WAR seasons, 3 other pitchers combine for another 3 WAR, and the entire bullpen only combines for 4 WAR. That isn't happening.

    We might be a 85 win team, but we won't be a 75 win team.

  4. #154
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    On a different note... what about Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. He won't come with the HUGE price tag that some other posted players have. He would give us a lefty that we could play in LF and backup Jose Martinez.

    Then... shop Jose. We basically get the left handed power bat they want, and fill Jose's spot with a player who is better defensively. (even if he isn't great defensively) Plus we would be adding some type of prospect package for Jose... even though we would have been better off shopping him last year when his value was higher.

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    On a different note... what about Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. He won't come with the HUGE price tag that some other posted players have. He would give us a lefty that we could play in LF and backup Jose Martinez.

    Then... shop Jose. We basically get the left handed power bat they want, and fill Jose's spot with a player who is better defensively. (even if he isn't great defensively) Plus we would be adding some type of prospect package for Jose... even though we would have been better off shopping him last year when his value was higher.
    I think he's considered a poor offensive player overall, and a better defensive centerfielder, but I've only read like one thing about him.

    I guess that really was Farty, he was banned.


    MLB.com suggested the following trade

    Nathan Eovaldi and Mookie Betts
    for
    Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Brett Cecil, and Randy Arozarena

    Let's evaluate for a moment

    Betts is likely to make $27.5M in his last year of arbitration
    Evoaldi is making $17M each of the next 3 seasons (20, 21, and 22)

    So we are taking on $44.5M

    Brett Cecil is owed $7M this year, will likely be released
    Jose Martinez is makign $2.125M and has 2 years of arb control left after this year
    Tommy Edman and Randy Arozarena are making a combined $1.1M and have 5 years of control left
    So we unload $10.5M

    This doesn't work.

    I think it only makes sense if they also take Dexter Fowler back.

    We unload $27M, they unload $44.5M
    So we took on $17.0M, and the Red Sox got under the luxury tax, and we didn't give up a top prospect for Betts, and we took on another year of a bad contract and moved Fowler.

    Sign Corey Dickerson for 1 year at $8M, or someone similar

    So our 2020

    1. Carpenter 3B
    2. Corey Dickerson LF
    3. Betts RF
    4. Goldschmidt 1B
    5. Wong 2B
    6. DeJong SS
    7. Molina C
    8. Bader CF

    Bench
    OF - Thomas
    OF - O'Neill or Williams
    C - Knizner
    IF - Munoz
    IF - Urias/Sosa/Shrock

    Rotation
    1. Flaherty
    2. Martinez
    3. Mikolas
    4. Hudson
    5. Wainwright

    Bullpen
    Long - Ponce
    R - Brebbia
    R - Gant
    L - Cabrera or R - Helsley
    L - Webb
    L - Miller
    Setup - Eovaldi
    Closer - Gallegos

    Payroll - $194.5M - projected wins - 94.0
    Luxury tax - $202M (stayed under by $6M, and this includes Wainwright's deal)

    Red Sox luxury tax - $201M, and are under it by $7M



    Now the true cost of not extending Betts, is we traded away Edman and Arozarena, and whatever value Martinez has to unload Fowler for Eovaldi for 2 years and moved the last year of Fowler.

    But here would be our likely October lineup next year

    1. Carpenter 3B
    2. Dickerson LF
    3. Betts CF
    4. Goldschmidt 1B
    5. Carlson RF
    6. DeJong SS
    7. Wong 2B
    8. Molina/Knizner C

    Tell me that isn't a team that does damage in October. And the rotation would be good, and the bullpen would be good.

    Of course, to extend Betts, it's going to cost probably 8/$300M or so, and he'd probably have to be our full time centerfielder long term. But if he did extend, we could then trade away several of our young outfielders, because Betts and Carlson would be long term answers there. And you can supplement left field with whomever would play okay (Bader, Thomas, O'Neill, Williams, etc) or do one year leftfielders like Dickerson each year.

    I would still offer Betts 8/$300M and have it start in the 2020 season, that would make him the highest AAV player in baseball history (over Trout). Covering his age 27-34 seasons. $37.5M AAV

    $10M signing bonus
    2020 - $27.5M
    2021-2027 - $37.5M per year

    This is $15M more than I think DeWitt wants to pay in payroll for 2020, but we can easily afford the team in 2021 and 2022 and beyond. I don't think this is a deal he'd go for though.
    We do trade our most versatile player (though Betts has played infield before, and well if it came to it).
    But we'd easily be the favorites in the central, could get an elite player without giving up elite prospects. Boston got every thing they wanted in the deal, and get to remain competitive and under the luxury tax threshold.

    I think it's a fair deal, even if we need to give up someone like Jake Woodford to seal the deal (so they can replace Eovaldi on their 26 man)

    Red Sox roster

    1. Edman 2B
    2. Devers 3B
    3. Bogaerts SS
    4. Martinez DH
    5. Benintendi LF
    6. Fowler RF
    7. Chavis/Dalbec/Martinez 1B
    8. Vazquez C
    9. JBJ/Arozarena CF


    Fowler and JBJ fall off over the next two seasons.


    I don't think this is the trade to answer all of the questions. But I can see something like this, as complex as it is, as a fun thought simulator.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 12-04-2019 at 11:27 PM.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I think he's considered a poor offensive player overall, and a better defensive centerfielder, but I've only read like one thing about him.
    Maybe you're thinking of Ryosuke Kikuch. He's the GG 2nd baseman. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo isn't much of a fielder. Plays 1B, some 3rd, and LF. But... he mashes the ball. Has averaged 35HR's the past 4 years.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...-baystars.html

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    Maybe you're thinking of Ryosuke Kikuch. He's the GG 2nd baseman. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo isn't much of a fielder. Plays 1B, some 3rd, and LF. But... he mashes the ball. Has averaged 35HR's the past 4 years.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...-baystars.html
    I'd be down, but Fangraphs crowd source suggested 4/$40M That might be a little rich for us with so many young outfielders and both corner infield spots covered for awhile.

    I like what I see about him as a potential big leaguer though.

  8. #158
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    I think he's in the Fukudome range... with a little more pop. They've been talking about wanting that left handed power bat.

    Pretty sad that we're so tight that 10mil a year might be out of range.

  9. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    I think he's in the Fukudome range... with a little more pop. They've been talking about wanting that left handed power bat.

    Pretty sad that we're so tight that 10mil a year might be out of range.
    I think we can afford it, it's that we need a compliment to Martinez (either a starter or a reliever) more.


    We are sitting at $167.3M right now, with Wainwright having up to $5M in incentives. With his incentives, $185M is our max. So we have about $12.2M we can add to payroll for next year. But I'd like them to be able to lock up Flaherty and provide him a signing bonus this spring as well.

    We have $10M we can spend. We probably need another reliever or starter (depending where Martinez goes). But our lineup is our weakest part of our team.

    Our roster right now

    C - Molina
    1B - Goldie
    2B - Wong
    SS - DeJong
    3B - Carpenter
    LF - Thomas
    CF - Bader
    RF - Fowler

    Bench
    Util - Edman
    C - Knizner
    PH - Martinez
    OF - Arozarena
    IF - Munoz

    Rotation
    1. Flaherty
    2. Martinez
    3. Mikolas
    4. Hudson
    5. Wainwright

    Bullpen
    Long - Ponce
    R - Brebbia
    R - Gant
    R - Helsley or L - Cabrera
    L - Webb
    L - Miller
    Setup or closer - Gallegos

    Hicks on 60 day IL

    We can supplement the rotation and bullpen with Memphis players without much issue, and we can supplement our outfield with O'Neill, Williams, Arozarena, Thomas and even Edman and eventually Carlson.

    So unless we do a roster changing trade, I don't see much to work with in terms of making changes.

  10. #160
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    I honestly don't believe we need another arm. We have young guys that are ready to take the spots.

    Wacha is leaving... Martinez fills that spot. Everything else in the rotation is the same.

    Martinez leaves the closer spot... have Brebbia fill in until Hicks returns.

  11. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    I honestly don't believe we need another arm. We have young guys that are ready to take the spots.

    Wacha is leaving... Martinez fills that spot. Everything else in the rotation is the same.

    Martinez leaves the closer spot... have Brebbia fill in until Hicks returns.
    I think our pen can be fine because we have the depth, but I also don't see where you just add a free agent.

    I think a trade could make the most sense, as a roster shuffler that could allow us to do more. Even if the trade takes on payroll.

    I still think a Jorge Soler trade makes a lot of sense.

    Randy Arozarena and Jake Woodford, and then offer Tyler O'Neill or Lane Thomas in a trade for a reliever of similar value and control. Extend Soler and Flaherty in the off-season, done.

    1. Wong/Edman 2B
    2. Edman/Carpenter 3B
    3. Goldschmidt 1B
    4. Soler LF
    5. Fowler RF
    6. Molina C
    7. DeJong/Edman SS
    8. Bader CF

    Bench
    Util - Edman/Carpenter 3B
    OF - Thomas or Williams
    IF - Munoz
    PH - Martinez
    C - Knizner

    And then one of O'Neill or Thomas in a trade that brings us back a reliever that is similar. For example, Ryan Stanek from the Marlins for Tyler O'Neill would make sense for both sides. Then let Thomas be the protection of a Bader regression or injury. Williams can play left or right if Fowler or Soler get hurt or regress, and eventually Carlson takes over right letting Fowler become the 4th outfielder. With Edman as the support in case there are injuries.

    We remain under budget, we are favorites to win the division, and it was two simple, and realistic trades that help the team we are trading with, and help us.

  12. #162
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    I like Soler, but he is certainly a risk. He obtained 3.7 of his career 4.3 WAR last year. He's been injury prone, and has never really produced like he did last year. The thing he has going for him is that he raked in the minors. So, maybe he is finally getting everything together.

  13. #163
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    Soler is a big risk. I would wait to see if he can replicate his prior season and look at him at the trade deadline.

    Sorry I am late to the offseason thread, but I have seen some rumors linking the Cardinals to both Mookie and Lindor. I honestly think the Cardinals will look to solve their team needs via trade over free agency. Just to play this out, who would have more value to the Cardinals? Mookie solves an issue with the OF but Lindor is a can't miss talent as well. With Lindor you would have to slide DeJong to 3b. I think we match up better with Cleveland for a Lindor deal, but I can't see us resigning both.

    Reyes or similar young SP
    Arozarena
    J Martinez
    + lower level minor leaguers

    Just a thought, but if the Cardinals sign or trade for a top tier SP do you think the the Cardinals will trade away Carlos Martinez for an upgrade somewhere else?

  14. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    I like Soler, but he is certainly a risk. He obtained 3.7 of his career 4.3 WAR last year. He's been injury prone, and has never really produced like he did last year. The thing he has going for him is that he raked in the minors. So, maybe he is finally getting everything together.
    I think he's pretty sustainable and should be near that caliber player most years, even if the ball is reduced. I feel like he's a lock to be near 35 HR's every year and a 3 win player

  15. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by cards7 View Post
    Soler is a big risk. I would wait to see if he can replicate his prior season and look at him at the trade deadline.

    Sorry I am late to the offseason thread, but I have seen some rumors linking the Cardinals to both Mookie and Lindor. I honestly think the Cardinals will look to solve their team needs via trade over free agency. Just to play this out, who would have more value to the Cardinals? Mookie solves an issue with the OF but Lindor is a can't miss talent as well. With Lindor you would have to slide DeJong to 3b. I think we match up better with Cleveland for a Lindor deal, but I can't see us resigning both.

    Reyes or similar young SP
    Arozarena
    J Martinez
    + lower level minor leaguers

    Just a thought, but if the Cardinals sign or trade for a top tier SP do you think the the Cardinals will trade away Carlos Martinez for an upgrade somewhere else?
    I think a Lindor trade involves one of DeJong or Carlson to get it started, and then filler pieces like Arozarena/Martinez after that.

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