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  1. #31
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
    31,819
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    For Boston, Carpenter and Fowler don't have much value at all. Combined 2.0 rWAR for both players the next two years is close to what Price is worth. But neither has a position to play, it would be purely financial for them.

    Fowler and Carpenter's combined cap hit is $36M
    Price's cap hit is $31M

    So I don't think they would have much interest other than the 2022 salary that Price is going to get paid.

    I did think about a Fowler for Price, JBJ swap that allows them to maybe keep Betts and try to extend him.

    We take Price, JBJ
    We give up Fowler, Ramon Urias

    We will pay Price $32M per year for the next 3 years. Which should be about 5 WAR in value. A negative value of $46M
    JBJ is expected to make around $11M this year, and he should have basically a neutral value
    Fowler makes $33M over the next two years, and should be worth around 2 wins, so a negative value of about $13M
    The cap savings for the Red Sox is $42M, minus the $16.5M for Fowler, so $25.5M, which is enough to justify them keeping Betts and extending him.

    We would have JBJ and Bader in the same outfield for 2020, and I don't think we are necessarily better in 2020, though Price gives us a nice option.

    So to offset this, the Red Sox would give us $33M, ($11M per year) to pay towards Price's contract. Which won't affect their Lux tax.

    They get a cap savings of $25.5M We added $15M to payroll for 2020, but added 2 wins to our rotation, and swapped values in the outfield (JBJ = Fowler, but more defense, less offense).

    Then Price basically costs us $21M in 2021 and 2022.

    It's not a great move for us, but it is a realistic way to get rid of Fowler that the acquiring team wouldn't be upset with and would benefit them. And we gain 2 more wins in 2020 most likely.

    I just wouldn't love paying 36 year old David Price $21M. Even if the Red Sox are paying him $11M to not even play for them.
    I'll take JBJ over Bader all day
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    628
    Gorman/ Dejong for Lindor? You would do this immediately. Lindor is in his mid 20's and like a 4 time all star. He hits like what....280 with 35 hrs. Who knows about Gorman. I think Gorman will hit a lot better next year. Just like Carlson did this year.

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    57,189
    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    I'll take JBJ over Bader all day
    Really? Why??????

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    57,189
    Quote Originally Posted by jayboek View Post
    Gorman/ Dejong for Lindor? You would do this immediately. Lindor is in his mid 20's and like a 4 time all star. He hits like what....280 with 35 hrs. Who knows about Gorman. I think Gorman will hit a lot better next year. Just like Carlson did this year.
    I don't think they would take DeJong and Gorman. They would want DeJong and Carlson.

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    1,727
    Quote Originally Posted by jayboek View Post
    Gorman/ Dejong for Lindor? You would do this immediately. Lindor is in his mid 20's and like a 4 time all star. He hits like what....280 with 35 hrs. Who knows about Gorman. I think Gorman will hit a lot better next year. Just like Carlson did this year.

    sure if he signs an extension. i'd love to have him but this team isnt one player away especially when you remove a player on the roster already even if that new player is an upgrade.

    plus hes a leadoff hitter. the bats we should target in free agency next year are leadoff hitters in betts and springer. gorman has a place on this team going forward if he makes it as a motob player.

    carlson is good, he still projected by scouts and expected by the team to be a 2nd place hitter.

    you move dejong and let ozuna walk then you have to get a motob, no excuses. carp sure as **** isnt that type of hitter. best case is carp rebounds, carlson eventually bats second and you can get away batting lindor 3rd with goldie 4th but then you literally have nobody behind those four.

    then if marp doesnt rebound you are really ****ed because you have to move lindor back to leadoff and have one motob on the entire roster with no help coming through the farm system and he sure as **** isnt going to stick around and wait for us to put a team around him.

  6. #36
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    1,727
    Kris Bryant anyone? i know he wouldnt be popular right away with his comments last winter but he can play LF and as far as slugging goes hes been Ozuna the last three years. Hes got a better BA and OBP than Ozuna but hes not mashing like he was his first two years in the show. Dont think the two teams want to make a deal with each other but if he could be had for Knizner and a pitching prospect (cubs would then move contreras probably for pitching) I think you have to do it.

    if he wasnt on the cubs hed be up moz's dollar general store clearance buys. cubs however would probably ask for gorman, carlson or both and for that they can get ****ed.

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,948
    I'd actually be fine with Bryant. I think that entire thing was fun. No way the Cubs ever send him to the Cards though... have to wait for FA.

  8. #38
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    57,189
    I want to win, Bryant, Baez, anyone from the Cubs is welcomed over here!

    But I don't see that happening.


    On the Lindor front, I'd love to net him, but you have no way of knowing if he'd sign an extension in 2 years, and that's a lot to give up for him (DeJong, who people may not like, has one of the most favorable contracts in baseball and is under control for 6 years like a top prospect would be), and Carlson (who could be Bernie Williams or Lance Berkman) who is also under control for another 6 years.

    Like I said, I think the Indians would take that deal, and I don't think we should, nor would the Cards front office take it. I don't think they would target Gorman.

  9. #39
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    57,189
    My ideal off-season


    1. Offer Ozuna QO, let him walk - they have already done that, but I hope they don't re-sign him.

    2. Invite Wainwright back on a similar deal to last year.

    3. Look for an outfield trade upgrade.
    This order ideally
    A. Jorge Soler
    B. David Peralta
    C. Another corner outfielder who is controlled through either 2020 or 2021 that can provide some stability and the trading team doesn't need a fortune for

    3D. If an outfielder can not be acquired through trade, consider a free agent stop gap, if nothing is better than the expected play of Tyler O'Neill, Lane Thomas and Randy Arozarena, then go with them as the three options in left and center to start the season

    4. Give Dylan Carlson a real shot in the spring to earn right as well, but assume he doesn't make it. If he does, he takes over right, Fowler to the bench, and Thomas or other 4th outfielder to Memphis.


    5. Explore a trade for Mike Minor from Texas. If Wainwright comes back, consider the rotation set, but know that you can move Minor, Wainwright, or Martinez to the bullpen (Flaherty, Martinez, Mikolas, Hudson, Wainwright - depth is Ponce de Leon, Gomber, Gant, Cabrera, Helsley, etc)

    6. Let Carpenter and Edman play third, with Edman getting plenty of AB's elsewhere in the lineup

    7. If not much has been spent, due to a lack of other upgrades, look for a reliever to help stabilize the bullpen in an effort to bring Martinez back into the rotation. If not, then a starter like Minor can still make sense in the rotation, with Martinez in the bullpen.

    8. Extend Flaherty - 8/$90Mish - $2M 2020 salary
    $1M signing bonus
    2020 - $1M
    2021 - $4M
    2022 - $8M
    2023 - $12M
    2024 - $15M
    2025 - $15M
    2026 - $15M - optional years
    2027 - $15M - optional years

    My ideal world.

    Trade Tyler O'Neill, Jake Woodford, and Ramon Urias to the Royals for Jorge Soler, and extend him 5/$70M
    2020 - $10M
    2021 - $15M
    2022 - $15M
    2023 - $15M
    2024 - $15M

    Trade Randy Arozarena and Luken Baker to the Rangers for Mike Minor, he will be paid $9.5M in 2020


    Roster
    C - Molina
    1B - Goldschmidt
    2B - Wong
    SS - DeJong
    3B - Carpenter
    LF - Soler
    CF - Bader
    RF - Fowler

    Util - Edman
    PH - Martinez
    C - Knizner/vet backup if we want to delay service time
    OF - Thomas

    Lineup varies depending where Edman plays, but he'd play most days.

    Rotation
    1. Flaherty
    2. Mikolas
    3. Minor
    4. Hudson
    5. Wainwright

    Bullpen
    Long - Ponce
    R - Brebbia
    R - Gant
    L - Webb
    L - Miller
    R - Helsley
    R - Gallegos
    Closer - Martinez

    Total payroll - $180,541,667 (with Wainwright incentive potential to reach another $8M, if he doesn't, you can acquire a starter or a reliever at the deadline)
    Luxury tax hit - $207,208,333 (just under the tax line)

    Predicted WAR totals

    C - Molina - 2
    1B - Goldschmidt - 3
    2B - Wong - 4
    SS - DeJong - 4
    3B - Carpenter - 2
    LF - Soler - 3.5
    CF - Bader - 3.5
    RF - Fowler - 1.5

    Bench
    Edman - 3.5
    Martinez - 0.0
    Catcher - 0.0
    Thomas - 0.5

    total position players - 27.5

    Pitchers
    1. Flaherty - 5
    2. Mikolas - 2.5
    3. Minor - 2.5
    4. Hudson - 2.0
    5. Wainwright - 1.0

    Total - 13.0

    Bullpen - 3.0

    Total - 43.5+48=91.5 wins

  10. #40
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    57,189
    ^ My OD lineup most likely though would be

    1. Edman 3B
    2. Wong 2B
    3. Goldie 1B
    4. Soler LF
    5. DeJong SS
    6. Fowler RF
    7. Molina C
    8. Bader CF

    I know this isn't the star studded team everybody would like to see. No Lindor, Betts, Rendon, etc. But it's a good lineup, it's a team that should be in the fight for the division again, and it's a team that can easily build upon it's future with bad money coming off, and plenty of payroll flexibility

    The end of the year lineup

    1. Edman 3B
    2. Carlson RF
    3. Goldie 1B
    4. Soler LF
    5. DeJong SS
    6. Knizner C
    7. Wong 2B
    8. Bader/Thomas CF

    Then, in 2022

    Wong would be a potential free agent, Molina, Carpenter, and Fowler all off the books
    Payroll room to spend is around $75M

    Known roster
    C - Knizner, maybe Molina backup
    1B - Goldie
    2B - unknown
    SS - DeJong
    3B - unknown (Gorman?)
    LF - Soler
    CF - hopefully Bader, maybe Thomas, maybe a different player
    RF - Carlson

    Rotation
    Flaherty, Martinez, Mikolas, Hudson all under contract

    We could add a $20M pitcher, a $20M 2B, and a $20M 3B or CF and still have money to spend.

  11. #41
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,948
    If Edman is better than Carp next year... we're in trouble. I expect his slash line to be... .286/.353/.415/.768 at best (that's his career Minor League average).


    I listened to the presser today. If anyone is wanting big changes/big moves... Moz made it sound like you'd be disappointed. Basically said we weren't in a position to make big changes.

    I'd imagine we're looking at pretty much the same roster. Edman being the super sub, and Carp being at 3rd. LF and RF will go to 2 of Martinez, Fowler, O'Neill... or one of the young guys. I seriously doubt we see any major changes to this roster going into 2020. That's ok too... the FA market is not good for us, but could be very good for us in 2020's offseason. Ride this competitive team one more year, and then stock up on a couple stars.

  12. #42
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    57,189
    Moz, Grisch, and Schildt all given extensions

    Wainwright expected to come back, working on an extension now.

  13. #43
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    57,189
    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    If Edman is better than Carp next year... we're in trouble. I expect his slash line to be... .286/.353/.415/.768 at best (that's his career Minor League average).
    I think Carpenter will return to a 115 wRC+ hitter, and get around 450 PA

    So basically .240/.350/.450 range
    With Edman getting roughly 40 starts at third, and then playing 10ish starts at second, 10ish at short, and 20ish in the outfield unless there is a major injury to one of those positions.

    With Edman being a .280/.340/.425 hitter, but with better defense.


    I listened to the presser today. If anyone is wanting big changes/big moves... Moz made it sound like you'd be disappointed. Basically said we weren't in a position to make big changes.
    I agree with his assessment.

    I'd imagine we're looking at pretty much the same roster. Edman being the super sub, and Carp being at 3rd. LF and RF will go to 2 of Martinez, Fowler, O'Neill... or one of the young guys. I seriously doubt we see any major changes to this roster going into 2020. That's ok too... the FA market is not good for us, but could be very good for us in 2020's offseason. Ride this competitive team one more year, and then stock up on a couple stars.
    Agreed

  14. #44
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Illinois
    Posts
    10,363
    This offseason is gonna be hella boring.

    Very little money to spend, untradeable vets with ****** contracts, and an okay but not amazing farm system

  15. #45
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Posts
    19
    I find it nearly impossible to believe we will go into the season with some combo in the outfield of Bader, Fowler, Arozarena, Thomas, O'Neill, Carlson, J. Martinez. There needs to be some way to reduce the roster redundancy and find higher quality starting outfielders.

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