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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    919

    AFC Playoff Picture

    Hey guys... We're almost half way through the season, and the playoff picture is becoming a little clearer a bit early this year in the AFC... A lot of bad teams around. We have a very good shot of making it. I found a really cool website that shows % chances of reaching the playoffs... and they're giving us the highest odds for the #6 seed: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html

    The site also has strength of schedule list showing games played and games remaining: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcsosag.html

    Raiders current record: 3-3
    Remaining Schedule
    @HOU (4-3)
    DET (2-3-1)
    LAC (2-5)
    CIN (0-6)
    @NYJ (1-5)
    @KC (5-2)
    TEN (3-4)
    JAX (3-4)
    @LAC (2-5)
    @DEN (2-5)

    I see at least 6-7 more wins for us. 10-6 will get us into the playoffs this year.

    The rest of the AFC - and remaining opponents with .500+ record, (SOS of remaining games)
    NE (7-0) - BAL, DAL, HOU, KC, BUF (.480)
    KC (5-2) - GB, MIN, OAK, NE, CHI (.560)
    BAL (5-2) - NE, HOU, LAR, SF, BUF (.530)
    IND (4-2) - HOU, NO, CAR (.450)
    BUF (5-1) - DAL, BAL, NE (.400)
    HOU (4-3) - OAK, BAL, IND, NE (.530)
    --------------------------------------------
    OAK (3-3) - HOU, KC (.360)

    JAX (3-4) - HOU, IND, OAK, IND (.420)
    TEN (3-4) - CAR, KC, IND, OAK, HOU, NO, HOU (.570)

    CLE (2-4) (.410)
    PIT (2-4) (.410)
    DEN (2-5) (.550)
    LAC (2-5) (.570)
    NYJ (1-5)
    CIN (0-7)
    MIA (0-6)

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    6,026



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    The Bay
    Posts
    14,403
    The game against Hou has massive implications

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2019
    Posts
    49
    It does! This game comes with a big problem for the Raiders and, that's a extremely mobile QB. A thin linebacker core coupled with a D backfield that struggled to tackle last week, look for Watson to take off early and often.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,926
    Quote Originally Posted by driftmaster View Post
    It does! This game comes with a big problem for the Raiders and, that's a extremely mobile QB. A thin linebacker core coupled with a D backfield that struggled to tackle last week, look for Watson to take off early and often.
    dont worry. Conley is gonna make Carr look like Brady out there. Carr needs to pick on him every play. Conley can't cover, tackle total wasted 1st rounder by the bum Reggie.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Altus, Oklahoma
    Posts
    4,358
    Quote Originally Posted by lamar2006 View Post
    dont worry. Conley is gonna make Carr look like Brady out there. Carr needs to pick on him every play. Conley can't cover, tackle total wasted 1st rounder by the bum Reggie.
    Exactly what I was thinking

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Sacramento
    Posts
    794
    Quote Originally Posted by TrueFan420 View Post
    The game against Hou has massive implications
    For sure. The Bills are in the drivers seat for the 1st wild card. If the Texans win Sunday they go to 5-3 and hold the tiebreaker over the Raiders who would be 3-4. The Raiders odds for the 6th seed would drop significantly with a loss Sunday
    The autumn wind is a Raider

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    919
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Pedaso View Post
    For sure. The Bills are in the drivers seat for the 1st wild card. If the Texans win Sunday they go to 5-3 and hold the tiebreaker over the Raiders who would be 3-4. The Raiders odds for the 6th seed would drop significantly with a loss Sunday
    That's true... however, when you look at their remaining schedule, and our remaining schedule... there's a huge difference. Even if we lose on Sunday, don't be surprised if we go 8-1 to close out the season. Look at the teams we're playing after Houston... DET, LAC, CIN all in Oakland, then the NYJ on the road, and KC on their field. After that, we close out the season against TEN, JAX, and at LAC and Denver. If we're even talking about playoffs, we should be at least 7-2, if not 8-1 in the last 9 games.

    As for Houston... they still have Baltimore, Indy, and the Patriots on their schedule.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    4,702
    Don't wake me until week 12. Then I'll comment. There's way too much that can happen by then, let alone the end of the season. We lost to all playoff quality teams. This week might tell us a lot about where this team is/might go.
    Guess what? Another must win game. Can Carr rebound? He's going to have to have a good game.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2019
    Posts
    49
    Quote Originally Posted by dbacknick View Post
    Don't wake me until week 12. Then I'll comment. There's way too much that can happen by then, let alone the end of the season. We lost to all playoff quality teams. This week might tell us a lot about where this team is/might go.
    Guess what? Another must win game. Can Carr rebound? He's going to have to have a good game.
    The question is can the defense rebound? Watson isn't Rogers but, any kind of pass rush which everyone says we needs will result in Watson taking off downfield for which the Raiders may not have an answer.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Sacramento
    Posts
    794
    Quote Originally Posted by GeniusLoci View Post
    That's true... however, when you look at their remaining schedule, and our remaining schedule... there's a huge difference. Even if we lose on Sunday, don't be surprised if we go 8-1 to close out the season. Look at the teams we're playing after Houston... DET, LAC, CIN all in Oakland, then the NYJ on the road, and KC on their field. After that, we close out the season against TEN, JAX, and at LAC and Denver. If we're even talking about playoffs, we should be at least 7-2, if not 8-1 in the last 9 games.

    As for Houston... they still have Baltimore, Indy, and the Patriots on their schedule.
    Taking into account the Raiders easy schedule, and everyone else's schedule, Sunday's loss was still a big hit on chances of making the playoffs, 49% chance now reduced to 21%. Not impossible but not likely either. They need to just win baby.

    https://www.silverandblackpride.com/...o-the-playoffs

    Every week, Football Outsiders runs 30,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Before this weekend, the Raiders made the AFC playoffs in 49 percent of simulations with a win over the Texans, while making it just 21 percent of the time with a loss.
    The autumn wind is a Raider

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    919
    alright, after last week's hiatus let's re-calibrate... the playoff pictures is a bit more muddier. should get a little clearer after this coming week, especially for us.

    Raiders current record: 4-4
    Remaining Schedule

    LAC (4-5)
    CIN (0-8)
    @NYJ (1-7)
    @KC (6-3)
    We should be AT LEAST 6-6 or 7-5 after these 4.
    TEN (4-5)
    JAX (4-5)
    @LAC (4-5)
    @DEN (3-6)
    We should definitely win another 3-4 of the last games.
    I see at least 6-7 more wins for us.

    The rest of the AFC - and remaining opponents with .500+ record, (SOS of remaining games)
    NE (8-1) - PHI, DAL, HOU, KC, BUF (.490)
    BAL (6-2) - HOU, LAR, SF, BUF, PIT (.490)
    HOU (6-3) - BAL, IND, NE (.530)
    KC (6-3) - OAK, NE (.510)
    ----------------------------------------------
    BUF (6-2) - DAL, BAL, PIT, NE (.450)
    IND (5-3) - HOU, NO, CAR (.500)
    --------------------------------------------
    OAK (4-4) - KC (.360) The only other challenger will be the Chargers (twice) in our schedule.
    PIT (4-4) - LAR, BUF, BAL (.390)
    JAX (4-5) - IND, OAK, IND (.440)
    TEN (4-5) - KC, IND, OAK, HOU, NO, HOU (.620)
    LAC (4-5) - OAK, KC, MIN, OAK, KC (.530)
    ------------------------------------------
    DEN (3-6)
    CLE (2-6)
    NYJ (1-7)
    MIA (1-7)
    CIN (0-8)

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Corona, Ca
    Posts
    16,145
    Good things is, 4 of the 5 teams that we are battling for that wild card spot we play or have played (Colts). So if we can win those games and hold tie breakers against them, we really just need to worry about finishing ahead of the Steelers.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    919
    Games of interest for us in the AM...

    KC and TEN 19-13 half way thru the 3rd Q.
    CLE and BUF 9-9 halfway thru the 3rd Q.
    BAL smacking CIN 41-10.
    CHI up on DET 20-6 in the 3rd. Detroit playing without Stafford.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    1,166
    Ten close to upsetting KC!!!

    Mack again a non Factor ZERO sacks against Detroit

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