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  1. #1201
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    There is already a lot to be concerned about but even more so that Kemba Walker was off all night and the Raptors couldn't secure the W. Kemba is getting good looks too. The Raptors did a good job closing in on his drives but that jumper is there for him whenever the bigs drop on the high screen.

    With that said, Lowry and Fred can be a lot better too. They are getting good looks, just missing.

    It just comes down to making shots. It sucks that they gave away game 1 because it doesnt seem like any win will come easily.

    Sent from my SM-A530W using Tapatalk
    “It’s about winning,” Stoudemire said. “You win, you’re going to get on national TV. Simple. In Phoenix, we won — Western Conference finals three, four years, playoffs every year. We won. If you don’t win, nobody really wants to see you.”

  2. #1202
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    I think we're giving way too much credit to the Celtics. They haven't even played that great. We're missing wide open shots. The Celtics aren't doing anything special. We're just missing. There's so much that is wrong but they're minuscule compared to our lack of shotmaking. That has been the only difference in this series so far. You simply can't shoot 10-40 on mostly open 3s in 2020 and hope to win. Even if you have an elite iso scorer in Kawhi that can generate an efficient half court offence, when you have that great of a discrepancy in 3s, it's so difficult to overcome. Just look at the Lakers in Game 1 against the Blazers.

    I think it is asinine to say that we're being outplayed and dismantled when their swings have mostly been sparked by outlier performances from Williams and Smart. Tatum dropped 34, a career high playoff game, and they still needed Steph Curry heroics from Smart to seal the game, only to win by 3.

    I'm not saying the Raptors are playing well or will even win the series, but when you watch the games, neither team is doing anything remarkable. Raptors just need to make a respectable number of open shots. That's it.
    Last edited by ecart; 09-02-2020 at 01:08 PM.

  3. #1203
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    Well put, I think that about sums it up.

    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    I think we're giving way too much credit to the Celtics. They haven't even played that great. We're missing wide open shots. The Celtics aren't doing anything special. We're just missing. There's so much that is wrong but they're minuscule compared to our lack of shotmaking. That has been the only difference in this series so far. You simply can't shoot 10-40 on mostly open 3s in 2020 and hope to win. Even if you have an elite iso scorer in Kawhi that can generate an efficient half court offence, when you have that great of a discrepancy in 3s, it's so difficult to overcome. Just look at the Lakers in Game 1 against the Blazers.

    I think it is asinine to say that we're being outplayed and dismantled when their swings have mostly been sparked by outlier performances from Williams and Smart. Tatum dropped 34, a career high playoff game, and they still needed Steph Curry heroics from Smart to seal the game, only to win by 3.

    I'm not saying the Raptors are playing well or will even win the series, but when you watch the games, neither team is doing anything remarkable. Raptors just need to make a respectable number of open shots. That's it.

  4. #1204
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    I think we're giving way too much credit to the Celtics. They haven't even played that great. We're missing wide open shots. The Celtics aren't doing anything special. We're just missing. There's so much that is wrong but they're minuscule compared to our lack of shotmaking. That has been the only difference in this series so far. You simply can't shoot 10-40 on mostly open 3s in 2020 and hope to win. Even if you have an elite iso scorer in Kawhi that can generate an efficient half court offence, when you have that great of a discrepancy in 3s, it's so difficult to overcome. Just look at the Lakers in Game 1 against the Blazers.

    I think it is asinine to say that we're being outplayed and dismantled when their swings have mostly been sparked by outlier performances from Williams and Smart. Tatum dropped 34, a career high playoff game, and they still needed Steph Curry heroics from Smart to seal the game, only to win by 3.

    I'm not saying the Raptors are playing well or will even win the series, but when you watch the games, neither team is doing anything remarkable. Raptors just need to make a respectable number of open shots. That's it.
    Yeah the Raptors just have to hit their shots.

    Here is a breakdown from a user on the other board:

    3pt shooting

    VanVleet: 5/23, 21.7% ---- Brown 6/17, 35.3%
    Lowry: 1/12, 8.3% --------- Walker 5/15, 33.3%
    Siakam: 1/7, 14.3% -------- Tatum 6/12, 50.0%
    Big 3: 7/42, 16.7% --------- Big 3: 17/44, 38.6%
    (reg.season: 21.0fga/36.6% ----------- 21.4fga/38.9%)

    Ibaka: 6/12, 50.0% -------- Smart 11/20, 55.0%
    Anunoby: 5/9, 55.6% ------ Ojeleye 1/6, 16.7%
    Powell: 2/7, 28.6% -------- Wanamaker 2/4, 50.0%
    Gasol: 0/5, 0.0% ------------ Theis 1/3, 33.3%
    Davis: 1/4, 25.0% -----------Williams 0/0, .0%
    Depth: 14/37, 37.8% ------- Depth: 15/33, 45.5%


    Sent from my SM-A530W using Tapatalk
    “It’s about winning,” Stoudemire said. “You win, you’re going to get on national TV. Simple. In Phoenix, we won — Western Conference finals three, four years, playoffs every year. We won. If you don’t win, nobody really wants to see you.”

  5. #1205
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    Quote Originally Posted by aman_13 View Post
    Yeah the Raptors just have to hit their shots.

    Here is a breakdown from a user on the other board:

    3pt shooting

    VanVleet: 5/23, 21.7% ---- Brown 6/17, 35.3%
    Lowry: 1/12, 8.3% --------- Walker 5/15, 33.3%
    Siakam: 1/7, 14.3% -------- Tatum 6/12, 50.0%
    Big 3: 7/42, 16.7% --------- Big 3: 17/44, 38.6%
    (reg.season: 21.0fga/36.6% ----------- 21.4fga/38.9%)

    Ibaka: 6/12, 50.0% -------- Smart 11/20, 55.0%
    Anunoby: 5/9, 55.6% ------ Ojeleye 1/6, 16.7%
    Powell: 2/7, 28.6% -------- Wanamaker 2/4, 50.0%
    Gasol: 0/5, 0.0% ------------ Theis 1/3, 33.3%
    Davis: 1/4, 25.0% -----------Williams 0/0, .0%
    Depth: 14/37, 37.8% ------- Depth: 15/33, 45.5%


    Sent from my SM-A530W using Tapatalk
    Glad people are seeing what I’ve been seeing.

    Are the families staying in the bubble from now on? Something needs to change. They need to focus.

  6. #1206
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    What has Stevens specifically done to torch our playbook?

    How have the Celtics "outplayed and dismantled" us? Marcus Smart hitting 6 3s and a 4 pt play is outplaying and dismantling us? Really?
    You're isolating a unique moment in the game and using it as a narrative for why they lost. There's more complexity and nuance going on than just Smart "hitting a bunch of shots".

    Take for example the assignments that Brad Steven has given his guys. He's daring Siakam to post-up Smart because he knows that Smart has the strength and poise to force Siakam into mistakes because the Celtics planned for Siakam eating up seconds on the shot-clock with his indecisiveness. They also force Raptors into squeezing their shot clock by running at shooters and daring Raptors to drive and its working because our guards don't finish efficiently around the rim, especially when you have Theis or Williams covering really well.

    Celtics are also forcing our bigs to try and beat them which might work occasionally when Ibaka is making shots but the numbers bear out that if you're relying on guys like Ibaka to keep you in a game the likelihood is that you're going to eventually fall short, Ibaka is a fringe offensive weapon that you use sparingly (by comparison Gasol is a black hole when it comes to scoring and the league knows that by now.)

    These subtleties are why we're losing the tactical game. Yes of course the Raps are not making shots but the resistance the Celtics have on their perimeter defense is a big part of that.

    I don't know about you guys but I have my money on a sweep. Our guys just look drained.

  7. #1207
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    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    You're isolating a unique moment in the game and using it as a narrative for why they lost. There's more complexity and nuance going on than just Smart "hitting a bunch of shots".
    What complexity and nuance? The absolute differences generated by "complexity and nuance" is minuscule compared to the variance generated by a barrage of 3s. No amount of pseudo-intellectual hindsight babble can make up for that. There are literally basketball analytics papers saying this. Imagine thinking the "nuance" of Smart guarding Siakam is greater than a 16 pt swing by Smart.

    If Siakam is a 1.2 PPP player and Smart guarding him reduces him to 0.9PPP, you would need Smart to guard Siakam for 54 possessions to even equate to that kind of swing.

    Besides, even with "complexity and nuance", the Celtics were down, which further underscores how monumental of an impact this "unique moment" had on the game.


    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    Take for example the assignments that Brad Steven has given his guys. He's daring Siakam to post-up Smart because he knows that Smart has the strength and poise to force Siakam into mistakes because the Celtics planned for Siakam eating up seconds on the shot-clock with his indecisiveness. They also force Raptors into squeezing their shot clock by running at shooters and daring Raptors to drive and its working because our guards don't finish efficiently around the rim, especially when you have Theis or Williams covering really well.
    Nice confirmation bias. Smart's primary assignment isn't even Siakam. You do realize that the Raptors game plan was to try to exploit Brown and Smart in the post with Siakam? We were deliberately forcing the switch. It wasn't some big brain Stevens move. Besides, if you actually watched the games, you would realize he actually makes his move pretty early. So that argument where he's eating up the clock posting up has no basis in reality.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaTPWXgUMz4

    These are all quick decisive post ups.

    lol you do realize our shot quality is extremely high? The Celtics perimeter defence has actually been awful. The vast majority of our shots are uncontested according to the tracking data.

    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    Celtics are also forcing our bigs to try and beat them which might work occasionally when Ibaka is making shots but the numbers bear out that if you're relying on guys like Ibaka to keep you in a game the likelihood is that you're going to eventually fall short, Ibaka is a fringe offensive weapon that you use sparingly (by comparison Gasol is a black hole when it comes to scoring and the league knows that by now.)
    How are they "forcing" our bigs to try and beat them? It's 2020 bro. If a team plays small it doesn't mean they're "forcing" your bigs to beat them. lol what numbers are you looking at? In what world is Ibaka a fringe offensive weapon and what numbers show that? It's such a laughable claim. He has 58 TS% on 12 FGA.

    Secondly, it's such a dumb double standard anyway when they literally relied on Williams and Smart to keep them in the game, who are even more fringe talents. Even Stevens said that Williams helped keep them in the game in the first half. And Smart is self-explanatory.

    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    These subtleties are why we're losing the tactical game. Yes of course the Raps are not making shots but the resistance the Celtics have on their perimeter defense is a big part of that.
    These aren't "subtleties". It's just you reverse engineering our defeat using hindsight and using any non-causal event to rationalize it all.
    Last edited by ecart; 09-02-2020 at 04:27 PM.

  8. #1208
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    What complexity and nuance? The absolute differences generated by "complexity and nuance" is minuscule compared to the variance generated by a barrage of 3s. No amount of pseudo-intellectual hindsight babble can make up for that. There are literally basketball analytics papers saying this. Imagine thinking the "nuance" of Smart guarding Siakam is greater than a 16 pt swing by Smart.

    If Siakam is a 1.2 PPP player and Smart guarding him reduces him to 0.9PPP, you would need Smart to guard Siakam for 54 possessions to even equate to that kind of swing.

    Besides, even with "complexity and nuance", the Celtics were down, which further underscores how monumental of an impact this "unique moment" had on the game.




    Nice confirmation bias. Smart's primary assignment isn't even Siakam. You do realize that the Raptors game plan was to try to exploit Brown and Smart in the post with Siakam? We were deliberately forcing the switch. It wasn't some big brain Stevens move. Besides, if you actually watched the games, you would realize he actually makes his move pretty early. So that argument where he's eating up the clock posting up has no basis in reality.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaTPWXgUMz4

    These are all quick decisive post ups.

    lol you do realize our shot quality is extremely high? The Celtics perimeter defence has actually been awful. The vast majority of our shots are uncontested according to the tracking data.



    How are they "forcing" our bigs to try and beat them? It's 2020 bro. If a team plays small it doesn't mean they're "forcing" your bigs to beat them. lol what numbers are you looking at? In what world is Ibaka a fringe offensive weapon and what numbers show that? It's such a laughable claim. He has 58 TS% on 12 FGA.

    Secondly, it's such a dumb double standard anyway when they literally relied on Williams and Smart to keep them in the game, who are even more fringe talents. Even Stevens said that Williams helped keep them in the game in the first half. And Smart is self-explanatory.



    These aren't "subtleties". It's just you reverse engineering our defeat using hindsight and using any non-causal event to rationalize it all.
    Preach MF!

    Been this way for 2 games. We’re destroying them but missing shots - all of them.

  9. #1209
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    It is worth pointing out that most of the Raptors probably don't feel like playing atm. Serge said they were close to leaving. Pascal ****ed around for 3 months because he thought the season was cancelled.

  10. #1210
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    What complexity and nuance? The absolute differences generated by "complexity and nuance" is minuscule compared to the variance generated by a barrage of 3s.
    I never disputed any of that. I'm merely stating that Marcus Smart's consecutive threes isn't the "sole" reason we lost - yes, it was a decisive moment in the game but there are fundamental discrepancies going on that extend beyond that sequence that explain a) why the Raps are rushing shots and b) how the Celtics have managed to control the pace of the game through team preparation and lineups.

    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    No amount of pseudo-intellectual hindsight babble can make up for that. There are literally basketball analytics papers saying this. Imagine thinking the "nuance" of Smart guarding Siakam is greater than a 16 pt swing by Smart.
    Relax man; I'm not challenging the school of analytics, I'm just pointing out that Brad Stevens appears to have set his guys up better. I don't know what's going on in the Celtics bubble camp but the way that they've been able to work with their guards by minimizing the impact of opposing bigs down low, particularly how they have planned for Siakam is nothing short of clinical.

    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    If Siakam is a 1.2 PPP player and Smart guarding him reduces him to 0.9PPP, you would need Smart to guard Siakam for 54 possessions to even equate to that kind of swing.
    You're not taking into account potential and'1s and putting Celtics in foul trouble which is a key part of the game in the playoffs. You can swing a game on consecutive drives while putting pressure on the opponent by making them change lineups. Not to mention the momentum swing it can provide for the team overall. Again, Boston guarded Siakam flawlessly regardless of whether they had a small or big on him.
    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    Besides, even with "complexity and nuance", the Celtics were down, which further underscores how monumental of an impact this "unique moment" had on the game..
    On the balance of play do you agree that the Raptors should have been up higher at the end of the first quarter? I do - yet, as hard as the Raps played and ran around trying to force turnovers they were still even on points at the end of the half mostly because Raps were committing too many fouls and sending Tatum to the line but also because Boston controlled the pace of play.

    From an instinctive sense I never believed that Raps were winning that 4th quarter with the way they were sucking wind and holding their shorts on timeouts which speaks to how much energy the starters had to expend to bring about a small lead to win the 3rd.

    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    Nice confirmation bias. Smart's primary assignment isn't even Siakam. You do realize that the Raptors game plan was to try to exploit Brown and Smart in the post with Siakam? We were deliberately forcing the switch. It wasn't some big brain Stevens move. Besides, if you actually watched the games, you would realize he actually makes his move pretty early. So that argument where he's eating up the clock posting up has no basis in reality.
    I'm insisting that Stevens' planned for the switch. You dont' have to agree.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaTPWXgUMz4
    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    These are all quick decisive post ups.
    I don't agree. He was hesitant and jittery by either forcing it too hard or stalling it too much - basically he's not sure of himself right now and so nothing is flowing for him.
    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    lol you do realize our shot quality is extremely high? The Celtics perimeter defence has actually been awful. The vast majority of our shots are uncontested according to the tracking data.
    Some were wide open, many were rushed under pressure by very fast Boston close-outs - they're an extremely athletic team and force our guys to second guess on a lot of attempts.


    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    How are they "forcing" our bigs to try and beat them? It's 2020 bro. If a team plays small it doesn't mean they're "forcing" your bigs to beat them. lol what numbers are you looking at? In what world is Ibaka a fringe offensive weapon and what numbers show that? It's such a laughable claim. He has 58 TS% on 12 FGA.
    I don't understand what you're missing from my statement? Celtics guards are outplaying our guards so there was always an opportunity for Raptor bigs to make an imprint on that game but for that to mean something in terms of the outcome Gasol and Ibaka would have to combine for at least 20-25 points and we both know that's never going to happen. Celtics were simply happy to chase our guards around the court all game and gamble on switches that they knew ultimately would falter which it did.
    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    Secondly, it's such a dumb double standard anyway when they literally relied on Williams and Smart to keep them in the game, who are even more fringe talents. Even Stevens said that Williams helped keep them in the game in the first half. And Smart is self-explanatory.
    This was a must win for the Raps to even the series yes? In that situation you can't depend on Ibaka to score in the halfcourt all game when nothing else is working. Smart by comparison was simply a welcome surprise for the Celtics in a game where they were more relaxed and measured in their play (especially Tatum).

    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    These aren't "subtleties". It's just you reverse engineering our defeat using hindsight and using any non-causal event to rationalize it all.
    What I'm not doing is saying that Smarts "barrage" is the square root of the defeat when the Raps are looking tired, confused, overwhelmed and outworked. I'm saying that both losses are a culmination of several things but if you want to really boil it down: the Raps simply look like they don't want to be there.
    Last edited by canzano55; 09-02-2020 at 11:00 PM.

  11. #1211
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    It is worth pointing out that most of the Raptors probably don't feel like playing atm. Serge said they were close to leaving. Pascal ****ed around for 3 months because he thought the season was cancelled.
    This I agree with completely. It might also explain the stark contrast in shooting percentages over two games.

  12. #1212
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    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    I never disputed any of that. I'm merely stating that Marcus Smart's consecutive threes isn't the "sole" reason we lost - yes, it was a decisive moment in the game but there are fundamental discrepancies going on that extend beyond that sequence that explain a) why the Raps are rushing shots and b) how the Celtics have managed to control the pace of the game through team preparation and lineups.
    How would you even quantify that? How do you quantify the impact of that, when we were factually up 8 and Smart's 5 straight 3s created a 20-7 run. If all these small little nuances actually mattered, they wouldn't have been down. My point is, none of these micro level factors matter in the grand scheme of things when the macro level components are a thousand times more impactful.

    They're not rushing shots and they haven't controlled the pace. We got blown out in game 1 and we still took more shots than them. We lost by 3 and we attempted 16 (?) more shots than them. How is that controlling the pace? And they're not rushing shots because last I checked, 90% of their 3s were wide open.


    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    Relax man; I'm not challenging the school of analytics, I'm just pointing out that Brad Stevens appears to have set his guys up better. I don't know what's going on in the Celtics bubble camp but the way that they've been able to work with their guards by minimizing the impact of opposing bigs down low, particularly how they have planned for Siakam is nothing short of clinical.
    It's not about challenging the school of analytics. It's that you're underestimating how crazy of a swing 5 straight 3s causes. Time and time again, it has been shown that the best way to upset a team is by introducing variance in the game through 3s. It's like talking about a murder and you're arguing that it wasn't really the gun that killed him, it was the socioeconomic factors that led him there.


    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    You're not taking into account potential and'1s and putting Celtics in foul trouble which is a key part of the game in the playoffs. You can swing a game on consecutive drives while putting pressure on the opponent by making them change lineups. Not to mention the momentum swing it can provide for the team overall. Again, Boston guarded Siakam flawlessly regardless of whether they had a small or big on him.
    On the balance of play do you agree that the Raptors should have been up higher at the end of the first quarter? I do - yet, as hard as the Raps played and ran around trying to force turnovers they were still even on points at the end of the half mostly because Raps were committing too many fouls and sending Tatum to the line but also because Boston controlled the pace of play.
    That example wasn't a serious argument for this. That example was to demonstrate the differences in scale.


    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    From an instinctive sense I never believed that Raps were winning that 4th quarter with the way they were sucking wind and holding their shorts on timeouts which speaks to how much energy the starters had to expend to bring about a small lead to win the 3rd.

    I'm insisting that Stevens' planned for the switch. You dont' have to agree.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaTPWXgUMz4
    I don't agree. He was hesitant and jittery by either forcing it too hard or stalling it too much - basically he's not sure of himself right now and so nothing is flowing for him.
    Some were wide open, many were rushed under pressure by very fast Boston close-outs - they're an extremely athletic team and force our guys to second guess on a lot of attempts.
    I mean the crux of the issue is that the Raptors are playing poorly. You're attributing that to Boston and Stevens. I disagree. First of all, Siakam has been trash since November. It's just recency bias to pin all of that on Boston. Secondly, their perimeter defence has been trash, which is why we're getting all these open looks. I'm not sure if we're watching the same game. How is it possible that we're getting wide open shots according to NBA tracking data and being pressured by "very fast Boston close-outs". They're mutually exclusive events.


    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    I don't understand what you're missing from my statement? Celtics guards are outplaying our guards so there was always an opportunity for Raptor bigs to make an imprint on that game but for that to mean something in terms of the outcome Gasol and Ibaka would have to combine for at least 20-25 points and we both know that's never going to happen. Celtics were simply happy to chase our guards around the court all game and gamble on switches that they knew ultimately would falter which it did.
    This was a must win for the Raps to even the series yes? In that situation you can't depend on Ibaka to score in the halfcourt all game when nothing else is working. Smart by comparison was simply a welcome surprise for the Celtics in a game where they were more relaxed and measured in their play (especially Tatum).
    How is that forcing us to rely on our bigs? If Steph and Klay are shooting poorly, would you ever say that Cleveland is forcing Golden State to rely on their bigs?

    Quote Originally Posted by canzano55 View Post
    What I'm not doing is saying that Smarts "barrage" is the square root of the defeat when the Raps are looking tired, confused, overwhelmed and outworked. I'm saying that both losses are a culmination of several things but if you want to really boil it down: the Raps simply look like they don't want to be there.
    I mean sometimes a missed shot is just a missed shot. There does not need to be any more reason beyond that.
    Last edited by ecart; 09-02-2020 at 11:53 PM.

  13. #1213
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    Kinda feel bad if we lose to the Celtics and Miami pulls off the upset. We match up well with Miami. Could have ended up in the finals again.

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    Smart is awesome. I wish we had him. Hed be the perfect two guard on our team lol

  15. #1215
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    Kinda feel bad if we lose to the Celtics and Miami pulls off the upset. We match up well with Miami. Could have ended up in the finals again.
    Its not that they are doing anything remakable. Theyve just been a match up problem for the raps all year.

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