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  1. #1261
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bmu15 View Post
    Einhorn Finkel Finkel Einhorn
    Ace Ventura: Pet Detective

    Future Hall of Shamers:
    (1) B.A.L.C.O. Barroids (2) Mark McJuicer (3) Jose Chem-seco (4) Rafael Palmeiroids (5) Ken Chem-initi (6) Jason Gi-andro (7) Ryan Fraud (8) Muscle Melk (9) Woman-Ram (10) Shammy Sosa (11) Roger Clear-mens (12) A-Roid (13) Ryan HGHoward

  2. #1262
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    Thatís enough you guys. Discuss the Dodgers offseason and thatís it. Itís ok to disagree but letís keep the disagreements to a baseball discussion please. Thanks for the cooperation.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  3. #1263
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    Iím going to chime in here because... well, thatís what I do.

    I think Iíve been very even keeled on the Friedman regime, praise where warranted, but equally critical as well, especially after letting all of this yearís marquee FAís get away.

    Iím now officially a Friedman supporter - and no, itís not because of ďone good deal in five yearsĒ. Itís because the Betts deal, and the potentially subsequent re-signing of Mookie, is the culmination of five years worth of making smart financial choices with short term risks and consequences.

    Letís categorize and list the deals AF has made...

    THE BAD DEALS

    Signed Scott Kazmir 3/48M (short term)

    Signed Brandon McCarthy 4/48M (low AAV)

    Traded Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields (Caveat: hindsight is 20/20 and we never saw Alvarez play in the states, only barely had his rights).

    Signing Alex Guerrero (turned this into a positive by swapping for Wood)

    BAD DEALS ANALYSIS:
    Notice a similarity in the ďbad FA dealsĒ? In hindsight, Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy were bad contracts because we got almost nothing out of them. However, they were good risks to take considering they were short contracts and/or carried low AAVs comparative to the rest of the free agent market.

    Even though we got minimal return on investment for Kaz and BMac, consider that the marquee FAs that season were Scherzer (34.9 bWAR, 7yr/$30M AAV)James Shields (2.7 bWAR, 4yr/$19M AAV), and Jon Lester (13.7 bWAR, 6yr/$26M AAV). Since Friedman came to office, Scherzer was just about the only top tier FA we didnít get that doesnít look like a bad contract. Weíll talk more about that below.


    THE GOOD DEALS
    Signing Max Muncy to a minor league contract (and re-signing him)

    Acquiring Chris Taylor for Zach Lee

    Trading Matt Kemp for Grandal

    Trading McCarthy, Kaz, and Gonzo for Matt Kemp

    Trading Puig, Wood, and Kemp for Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs

    Acquiring Betts and Price for ĎDugo, Jeter Downs, and Conner Wong

    Trading Alex Guerrero and a ton of money to get Alex Wood (simplified)

    Acquiring Yu Darvish for Willie Calhoun

    Acquiring Manny Machado for Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, Rylan Bannon and Breyvic Valera

    Signing Kenta Maeda to arguably the team-friendliest contract in baseball

    Trading Kenta Maeda (and a total of $10M) for Graterol, Luke Raley and the 67th pick.

    Trading Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, and Miguel Rojas, for Kikť Hernandez, Austin Barnes, Chris Hatcher, and Andrew Heaney


    GOOD DEALS TAKEAWAY: Notice a trend? A couple of names pop up here a few times; Maeda, Kemp, Jeter Downs. This FO locks on to its core players, whether prospects or big leaguers, and they have been great at playing with the margins to make improvements to the 25 and 40-man rosters, and for the future of the club.


    FA CHOICES/PERFORMANCE YEAR BY YEAR
    Below is a list of the top billed FAs year over year since Friedman took over, with contract length, AAV, and the cost per point of WAR produced over the life of the contract to date in parentheses

    2014 Top FAs
    Scherzer - Nationals, 7/30M (4.29M per WAR)
    Jon Lester - Cubs, 6/26M (10.15M per win)
    James Shields - Pads, 4/19M (35.2M per win)
    Hanley Ramirez - Boston, 4/22 (44M)
    Pablo Sandoval - Boston, 5/18 (-0.9 WAR!!!)

    2015
    David Price - Boston, 7yr/31 (11.5M)
    Jason Heyward - Chicago, 7/27 (15.2M)
    Zach Greinke - Arizona, 6/33M (7.5M)
    Justin Upton - Tigers, 6/22 (8.5M)
    Chris Davis - Orioles, 7/23 (-0.5 WAR!!!)
    Jordan Zimmerman - Tigers, 5/22 (110M!!!)
    Johnny Cueto - Giants, 6/22 (10M)
    Ian Desmond - Rangers, 5/14 (-0.7!!! WAR)
    Jeff Samardzija - Giants, 5/18 (9.2M)

    2016
    Cespedes - Mets, 4/27.5 (13.2M)
    Edwin Encarnacion (DH) - Cle, 3/20M (8.8M)
    Aroldis Chapman - NYY, 5/17.2 (12.3M)
    Justin Turner - LAD, 4/18 (3.88M)
    Kenley Jansen - LAD, 5/16 (12M)

    2017
    Darvish - Cubs 6/21 (13.1M)
    JD Martinez (DH) - BoSox 5/22 (4.5M)
    Eric Hosmer - Padres 8/18 (32.7M)
    Jake Arrieta - Phillies 3/25 (13.2M)

    2018
    Machado - Pads 10/30 (9.6M)
    Harper - Phillies 13/33 (7.85M)

    FA ANALYSIS:
    As you can see, of the major contracts handed out since AF took office, the best deal by a long shot was Justin Turner, who costs us about 3.88M per 1.0 WAR. Max Scherzer comes in 2nd at 4.29M. JD Martinez has proven to be a good investment as well at 4.5M per WAR, but heís a DH. If he were in the NL his WAR would take a hit by having to play defense every game; this was a good investment for an AL team.

    In those 5 years of free agency, no other player came in at less 7.5M per 1.0 win above replacement.

    The fourth best investment, believe it or not, has been Zack Greinke at 7.5M, followed by Bryce Harper at 7.85M per win last year. That makes Max Scherzer just about the only free agent ďmissĒ by this front office.

    What this list reveals is that Free Agency is incredibly volatile. In fact, of the 25 players on that list, only 9 produced a rate better than $10M per 1 point of WAR.

    Hell, David Price is a prime example. He has cost Boston 11.5M per win year to date, but when we factor in the $48M theyíre reportedly paying him to pitch for us on the remainder of his contract, that number jumps to 16.53M per win he produced playing for them. If he produces similarly for the Dodgers as he did for Boston, he will cost us $7.7M per win - which would be the 5th best investment on the list above. Even though thatís already a substantially better investment for the Dodgers than it was for Boston, I actually expect him to be healthier and improve on his numbers.

    BUT LET US NOT FORGET (FA)...
    This list only includes the Big Name Free Agents who were expected to command top dollar. What it doesnít include is Max Muncy who was signed as a free agent, put in a year of work on the farm, and has since produced 9.9 WAR over 2 seasons at league minimum salary. This has cost us $126,374 per WAR which makes him, by far, the best free agent find in all of baseball during Friedmanís LAD tenure. Maybe even one of the best free agent investments in baseball history.

    So, for all the complaints about Friedmanís lack of involvement on the top players in the free agent market, he actually has done quite well there in making good investments and staying away from the absolute worst ones.

    IN SUMMARY
    Being savvy with the 25 and 40 man rosters, staying fiscally responsible, investing in scouting and player development, and improving around the margins have been key strengths for Friedman. All of these things have allowed the Dodgers to compete win the division each year, with back to back WS appearances, while staying under the LT and still boasting a top-tier MiLB system,

    At this point, Iím not convinced that thereís a better Front Office in baseball.
    Bravo, and doubly so with all the work you put into it...of course this will make entirely too much sense for some...

  4. #1264
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bmu15 View Post
    I got this one.That dude looks like the biker gang leader in Weird Science. Except this dude has hair. For those of you that haven't seen Weird Science, I can't help you.
    Lmao..He was also on The Devil's Rejects. Loved Weird Science. I had a massive crush on Kelly Lebrock.

  5. #1265
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    Quote Originally Posted by rasajr23 View Post
    Lmao..He was also on The Devil's Rejects. Loved Weird Science. I had a massive crush on Kelly Lebrock.
    We all did, and to think all we had to be is Steven freaking Seagal to be tapping that

    Meanwhile, it is White (Tyler) and Garlick that wound up getting the pink slips....

    I am still hoping we can get another southpaw for the back end by offering up Stripling, but for the most part I am guessing we are done........

  6. #1266
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    I just felt this needed to be out there for Dodger fans to just get a real sense on how loaded our lineup is right now......(granted I combined Pollock and Taylor's numbers as a LF combo so to speak, Pederson as the DH as well as added minor league totals with Smith and Lux, since they only played a few month(s) with us last season)

    Lineup: (AB-R-H-BI-2B-3B-HR-AVG-OBP-Slug-OPS- (WAR))

    RF Mookie Betts (R) 597-135-176-80-40-5-29-.295-.391-.524-.915- (6.8)
    1B Max Muncy (L) 487-101-122-98-22-1-35-.251-.374-.515-.889- (5.7)
    3B Justin Turner (R) 479-80-139-67-24-0-27-.290-.372-.509-.881- (3.7)
    CF Cody Bellinger (L) 558-121-170-115-34-3-47-.305-.406-.629-1.035- (9.0)
    LF Pollock/Taylor (R) 674-101-178-99-44-5-27-.264-.330-.466-.798- (2.6)
    DH Joc Pederson (L) 450-83-112-74-16-3-36-.249-.339-.538-.876- (3.3)
    SS Corey Seager (L) 489-82-133-87-44-1-19-.272-.335-.483-.817- (4.0)
    C Will Smith (R) 394-78-103-96-20-2-35-.261-.362- .588-.950- (4.7)
    2B Gavin Lux (L) 533-111-177-85-29-9-28- .332-.409-.592- 1.001- (6.4)


    Wow!
    Last edited by bkt42; 02-11-2020 at 11:28 AM.

  7. #1267
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    Quote Originally Posted by bkt42 View Post
    I just felt this needed to be out there for Dodger fans to just get a real sense on how loaded our lineup is right now......(granted I combined Pollock and Taylor's numbers as a LF combo so to speak, Pederson as the DH as well as added minor league totals with Smith and Lux, since they only played a few month(s) with us last season)

    Lineup: (AB-R-H-BI-2B-3B-HR-AVG-OBP-Slug-OPS- (WAR))

    RF Mookie Betts (R) 597-135-176-80-40-5-29-.295-.391-.524-.915- (6.8)
    1B Max Muncy (L) 487-101-122-98-22-1-35-.251-.374-.515-.889- (5.7)
    3B Justin Turner (R) 479-80-139-67-24-0-27-.290-.372-.509-.881- (3.7)
    CF Cody Bellinger (L) 558-121-170-115-34-3-47-.305-.406-.629-1.035- (9.0)
    LF Pollock/Taylor (R) 674-101-178-99-44-5-27-.264-.330-.466-.798- (2.6)
    DH Joc Pederson (L) 450-83-112-74-16-3-36-.249-.339-.538-.876- (3.3)
    SS Corey Seager (L) 489-82-133-87-44-1-19-.272-.335-.483-.817- (4.0)
    C Will Smith (R) 394-78-103-96-20-2-35-.261-.362- .588-.950- (4.7)
    2B Gavin Lux (L) 533-111-177-85-29-9-28- .332-.409-.592- 1.001- (6.4)


    Wow!
    as we saw last year pitching wins in the playoffs and the dodgers pitching is not up to championship caliber..

  8. #1268
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnny ny View Post
    as we saw last year pitching wins in the playoffs and the dodgers pitching is not up to championship caliber..
    It could be, but there are a lot of ďwhat ifs.Ē
    The upside and potential is high, but we may be riding our offense to some wins.
    The bullpen turning out to be nice would be huge for this rotation since our 2-5 SPs should be studs through 5 or 6 innings.

  9. #1269
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    Quote Originally Posted by bkt42 View Post
    Bravo, and doubly so with all the work you put into it...of course this will make entirely too much sense for some...
    Thank you sir. Feedback is always appreciated.

    There are some other takeaways to glean that show just how poor of an investment the FA market typically is.

    Like I said, there are only 9 players on that list that are producing 1.0 unit of WAR at less that $10M but Machado and Samardzija are cutting it close at 9.6M and 9.2M respectively.

    Additionally, the worst three contracts on this list (Sandoval, Ian Desmond, and Chris Davis) have produced a combined average annual war of -0.6 and are paid $55M in combined annual salary. Thatís $55M paid to three players for worse than replacement level play.

    But it doesnít end there. The next offender is Jordan Zimmerman whom many in here wanted at the time. He signed a 5/110M contract and has produced an average of 0.2 WAR per season with one season remaining. This puts him on pace for exactly 1.0 WAR over five years... meaning that 1 WAR will have cost the Tigers $110M.

    If we add Zimmerman to the worst three contracts listed above, we are still at an annual average WAR of -0.4 at an annual cost of $77M

    Hanley Ramirez was in a similar situation to Zimmerman; $22M for minimal production. At 0.5 WAR per season, his production has cost $44M per one full unit of WAR. His annual production finally helps the bottom 5 contracts sneak into the black but barely; combined they produced 0.1 WAR annually.

    Thatís $99M in annual salaries for a total of 0.1 WAR per year!

    Letís add Shields and Hosmer to this list and make it a ďbottom 7Ē. They combined for 1.08 WAR annually at a total annual salary of $37M

    The seven worst FA signings in baseball since AF took office have combined for an average annual WAR of 1.18 (less than 0.16 WAR per year player) at a cost of $136M in annual investment.

    Thatís a rate of $115M per season for 1 unit of WAR.

    I mean, I could do this all day; the list goes on and on.

    Meanwhile, weíve acquired players like Max Muncy, and Chris Taylor over that time whom, in 2 and 3 years respectively, have roughly earned a combined 5.7M and produced 22.0 bWAR, good $259K per win.

    We complain about ďscrap heapĒ acquisitions, but you donít find Muncys and Taylors without sifting through a whole lot of Tyler Whites. Based on the above information, itís clearly worth it to explore those low risk free agent options and other teamsí underperforming prospects.
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; 02-11-2020 at 06:21 PM.

  10. #1270
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    Quote Originally Posted by bkt42 View Post
    I just felt this needed to be out there for Dodger fans to just get a real sense on how loaded our lineup is right now......(granted I combined Pollock and Taylor's numbers as a LF combo so to speak, Pederson as the DH as well as added minor league totals with Smith and Lux, since they only played a few month(s) with us last season)

    Lineup: (AB-R-H-BI-2B-3B-HR-AVG-OBP-Slug-OPS- (WAR))

    RF Mookie Betts (R) 597-135-176-80-40-5-29-.295-.391-.524-.915- (6.8)
    1B Max Muncy (L) 487-101-122-98-22-1-35-.251-.374-.515-.889- (5.7)
    3B Justin Turner (R) 479-80-139-67-24-0-27-.290-.372-.509-.881- (3.7)
    CF Cody Bellinger (L) 558-121-170-115-34-3-47-.305-.406-.629-1.035- (9.0)
    LF Pollock/Taylor (R) 674-101-178-99-44-5-27-.264-.330-.466-.798- (2.6)
    DH Joc Pederson (L) 450-83-112-74-16-3-36-.249-.339-.538-.876- (3.3)
    SS Corey Seager (L) 489-82-133-87-44-1-19-.272-.335-.483-.817- (4.0)
    C Will Smith (R) 394-78-103-96-20-2-35-.261-.362- .588-.950- (4.7)
    2B Gavin Lux (L) 533-111-177-85-29-9-28- .332-.409-.592- 1.001- (6.4)


    Wow!
    Yeah, itís crazy LOL

    I was just talking to a friend about that last night. That lineup is ridiculous, and the one platoon with Joc and AJ in LF will be another very tough out.

    AJ has a career OPS of 0.835 against LHP. Any sort of renaissance out of him and that spot in the lineup can be devastating.

    Then weíre using another starter/potential all star level player as a super utility guy in Chris Taylor.

  11. #1271
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnny ny View Post
    as we saw last year pitching wins in the playoffs and the dodgers pitching is not up to championship caliber..
    If Julio Urias develops into the Ace we all believe he can be then it will be.

  12. #1272
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    Yes, I dont know if I would agree that this unit is not up to championship caliber. Compared to who? The Nationals? They are the ONLY team I could say have a better rotation that we do, simply because their big 3 are better than everyone else's RIGHT NOW after winning it all. The Astros lost Cole to the Yankees, and although Verlander/Greinke is still formidable, I would take our depth and upside seven days out of the week. Yankees could have Servino back full throttle, but that is a big IF from someone who pitched a dozen innings last year. The Mets staff looks good but they too don't have near our depth- as a matter of fact no team does.

    Buehler very well could be ready to take the next step and get listed as one of the ten best in the game, and I dont think that is a stretch by most analysts. MLB Network put him at #10 in their "10 best starting pitchers right now". Here is an interesting fact about that: Walker and #7's Jack Flaherty were the only one's listed that were 25 and under. Everyone else was at least 29 years of age...

    Kershaw is clearly past his prime and yet he is still arguably the best #2 in the game. His 3.03 ERA was his first season over 3 since his rookie year and I would not be surprised at all if he comes closer to his 4-5 WAR years of 2016-17.

    Price could excel with the change of leagues. He is only a year removed from having a 4.4 WAR season. No, he isn't the pitcher he once was; but he is still pretty darn good when healthy.

    How good has Urias been as a starter in his young career? Try 123 innings of 3.66 ball in 28 starts with 125 K's. People tend to forget he is only 23 years old. Management has already said one of the rotation spots is his to lose and with a 1.5 WAR in his 37 games last season (2.49/1.08) there is plenty to get excited about here

    Dustin May is going to be super good, which is why they refused to even talk about him in any trade. He got a taste last season and in 4 starts looked ready: 2.82/1.08. It is not a stretch at all to expect the 22-year old to be in the rotation for good by August/September

    Dodgers also still have Ross Stripling (3.71/1.21 in 52 starts over the years), another rookie with some upside in Tony Gonsolin (2.89/1.07 in 6 starts last season) and two reclamation projects in Alex Wood (who was 25-10 with a 3.01/1.13 mark in 52 starts for us in 2017-18) and Jimmy Nelson (a bigger longshot but someone who did finish 9th in Cy Young voting in 2017).....Wood just turned 29 and Nelson is 30....

    Dennis Santana and Caleb Ferguson are other depth options who would be otherwise be in fifth starter battles for most ML teams and we have one of the fastest rising pitching prospects in Josiah Gray, who I wouldn't be surprised at all winds up in AAA OKC before season's end. That doesn't even mention flamethrower Brusdar Graterol whom we just traded for, and despite the Red Sox concerns to the contrary; may still wind up as a starter. Three top pitching prospects in MLB's Top 100- only the Devil Rays share that honor...

    Championship caliber? Um, as much as 90% of the other teams out there....and no teams have the depth and few if any have the upside..........Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin, Gray, Graterol, Santana, Ferguson (and don't forget 40-man roster guy Mitchell White) are all 25 and under....

  13. #1273
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    One thing from today's press conference from Mookie that was definitely positive was when they were talking about when the trade was announced and the time in between it was final. He said "I'm glad it got done."

  14. #1274
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    I just noticed that David Price has 1,981 career strike outs. That means he'll pass the 2,000 milestone as a Dodger, definitely cool.

  15. #1275
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bmu15 View Post
    I just noticed that David Price has 1,981 career strike outs. That means he'll pass the 2,000 milestone as a Dodger, definitely cool.
    Peeps tend to forget we actually drafted Price out of HS way back in 2004 in the 19th round....of course we couldn't sign him and he went on to Vandy and TB got him with the first overall pick in 2007 (Friedman had the honors). He has come full circle now though......
    Last edited by bkt42; 02-13-2020 at 10:18 AM.

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