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  1. #376
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    Carlos Martinez is an ace that has 2 very inexpensive years left and 2 affordable option years after those. He has a ton of value. He had a 3.17 ERA this year. I get people are tired of him losing it mentally. Personally, I blame it on him being misused. He shouldn't be the closer.


    I'm not against trading him if we can get legitimate value for him. However, selling him off just because he blew a couple of games (in a position he shouldn't even be in) does not make sense. Stretch him out, get him back in the rotation and trade him next June for a bat.


    That said...

    Jack Flaherty
    Carlos Martinez
    Dakota Hudson
    Miles Mikolas
    Adam Wainwright

    That's a very solid rotation. Not Nationals good... but certainly enough to win ball games. Then we have guys like Ponce to come in to make spot starts.


    The more I think on it, the more I believe that our only hope for a good offense is to keep Ozuna. I expect offensive regressions from Edman and Wong (because that's what their career numbers indicate). I expect better from Jose Martinez, Matt Carpenter, and Goldie (for the same reasons). Everyone else will probably be around what they were.

    The real wildcard is Bader. Can he get back to bunts and slap singles? He needs to choke up on the bat and put the ball in play. Stop swinging for the fences. A single and a SB is almost as good as a double!
    I'm a fan of keeping Martinez, but ONLY using him as a starter. However, he didn't come out of the gate his year as a starter because he didn't condition himself last winter.

    How can they force him to work out like he's supposed to when he didn't and probably won't?

    Maybe make him report earlier? Can they even do that?

    He probably wouldn't have been ready as a starter until late May/early June because of it.

    they brought him back as a reliever because it allowed them to bring him back in mid May and they had a full rotation working at the time. If a starter failed, they were going to slowly stretch him out and move him to the rotation. But Wainwright did well enough, and Flaherty, Hudson, and Mikolas held down their spots that the team could fill the 5th rotation spot with Ponce/Wacha/etc. If one of Wainwright, Flaherty, Hudson, or Mikolas went down with an injury, I think Carlos would have been starting again by mid July. But instead, the injury hit Jordan Hicks in Mid June, and then Carlos was needed in the bullpen.

    He doesn't have the mental capacity to ever be an ace. But I think he can be a very competent and reliable number 2 who pitches every 5th day and is effective to a 3.30ish ERA.

    For his contract, that's incredibly valuable. The problem, he doesn't have what that trade value would be right now because we had to use him as a reliever and he wasn't effective in that role toward the end.

    He needs to start, and that needs to be the end of it. If he's our number 2 next year behind Flaherty, our rotation is pretty damn good.

    I don't want to trade him right now because his trade value is pretty low for what should be a very high trade value player.

    i.e. he's worth more to us than he would be to an acquiring team.

    But if you can get a team who feels the same, and the needs to be matched, I'm not at all opposed to trading him. I think everyone is tired of his stupidity.














    The average MLB team will use 7 starters for at least 10 starts, and will use at least 10 starters for at least 1 start.

    So you need to know your rotation depth for sure through 7 guys, and the fringe guys through 10

    So my rotation for next year

    1. Flaherty - 25+ starts
    2. Martinez - 25+
    3. Hudson - 25+
    4. Mikolas - 25+
    5. Wainwright - 15+
    6. Daniel Poncedeleon - 8+
    7. Austin Gomber - 5+
    8. Alex Reyes - 2+
    9. Genesis Cabrera - 2+
    10. Jake Woodford - 2+

    That's 134+ starts on the docket. Some guys will be healthy and others with major injuries. Hopefully, at some point, someone steals Wainwright's job and we can pencil them into the 2021 rotation.



    I am not a fan at all of re-signing Ozuna. He's a 115 wRC+, defensively liable left fielder. I am only okay with it if we can get someone to take Fowler for basically nothing, and even then, that doesn't make me want to do it.

    I agree on the regressions.

    Here is how I see our lineup next year

    (this isn't the lineup order, just production order - best hitter to worst)
    Goldie - 125 wRC+
    Carpenter - 115 wRC+
    Edman - 110 wRC+
    Martinez - 110 wRC+
    DeJong - 105 wRC+
    Wong - 105 wRC+
    Thomas - 100 wRC+
    Fowler - 95 wRC+
    Bader - 95 wRC+
    O'Neill - 95 wRC+
    Arozarena - 95 wRC+
    Molina - 85 wRC+
    Knizner - 80 wRC+

    We could really really use a 130 wRC+ hitter in there to help provide length.

    I think the following of potentially available hitters exist (through trades or free agency)

    Marcel Ozuna - 115 wRC+
    Jorge Soler - 130 wRC+
    JD Martinez - 130 wRC+
    Nicholas Castellanos - 120 wRC+
    Francisco Lindor - 125 wRC+
    Trevor Story - 120 wRC+
    Mookie Betts - 135 wRC+
    Anthony Rendon - 140 wRC+
    Trey Mancini - 125 wRC+
    Josh Donaldson - 125 wRC+
    Charlie Blackmon - 120 wRC+

    If we feel like we need at the least, a 130 wRC+ hitter to be in the 4 spot in our lineup, Rendon, Martinez, Soler, and Betts are the only one's I see being probable to do that (again probable, not will).

    If we had Soler...check out the lineup

    1. Edman - 110 wRC+
    2. Wong - 105 wRC+
    3. Goldie - 125 wRC+
    4. Soler - 130 wRC+
    5. DeJong - 105 wRC+
    6. Thomas - 100 wRC+
    7. Molina - 85 wRC+
    8. Bader - 95 wRC+

    Bench
    Carpenter - 115 wRC+
    Martinez - 110 wRC+
    Fowler - 95 wRC+
    Knizner - 80 wRC+

    That's a top 5 offense in the NL without much issue, and it's just one change.

  2. #377
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    What don't you agree with? Him being an ace? Since he's converted to the rotation he has had era's of 3.01, 3.04, 3.64, 3.11 (this year out of the pen he had a 3.17).

    His WHIP was actually a career low 1.18 this year.

    He is fragile, and seems to implode or shut out. But, I prefer that.

    What do you want out of a guy with an ERA of 3?

    10 games... giving up 2 runs per game over 60ip

    or

    10 games... giving up 0 runs for 6 games and 4 games with 5 runs per game?


    It probably averages out to about the same. However, if you get 6 shutout innings from your starter, it is almost a guaranteed win. If you get 6 innings giving up 2 runs out of your starter, the odds are decent that you win, but nowhere near as high.


    Consistency is nice, but shutouts are better (in my opinion).
    Well the other problem is nobody in baseball is really all that consistent. A handful of guys are consistent shut down guys, but those guys win Cy Youngs (deGrom, Strasburg, Scherzer, Cole, Verlander, etc). The rest of pitchers in baseball have good nights and bad nights pretty routinely.

    But if Martinez can give us 10 starts and a 3.30 ERA over those 10 starts. You can expect the following
    23 earned runs and 60 innings (6 innings per starts)

    Martinez is likely to give you
    2 starts of 0 runs
    3 starts or 1 run
    2 starts of 3 runs
    2 starts of 4 runs
    1 start of 6 runs

    you should win the first 5 starts, you can win the next 2, and you are unlikely to win the last 3.

    That's more realistic for a guy like Martinez, and that's a 3.30 ERA pitcher.

    Nobody just goes out there and only gives up 1 and 2 runs every start and throws an ERA over 3.

    This makes him a very competent number 2 starts in any rotation. He just isn't that shut down deGrom caliber ace that rarely gives up 3 runs in a start (7 times this year in 32 starts)

  3. #378
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I'm a fan of keeping Martinez, but ONLY using him as a starter. However, he didn't come out of the gate his year as a starter because he didn't condition himself last winter.

    How can they force him to work out like he's supposed to when he didn't and probably won't?

    Maybe make him report earlier? Can they even do that?

    He probably wouldn't have been ready as a starter until late May/early June because of it.

    they brought him back as a reliever because it allowed them to bring him back in mid May and they had a full rotation working at the time. If a starter failed, they were going to slowly stretch him out and move him to the rotation. But Wainwright did well enough, and Flaherty, Hudson, and Mikolas held down their spots that the team could fill the 5th rotation spot with Ponce/Wacha/etc. If one of Wainwright, Flaherty, Hudson, or Mikolas went down with an injury, I think Carlos would have been starting again by mid July. But instead, the injury hit Jordan Hicks in Mid June, and then Carlos was needed in the bullpen.

    He doesn't have the mental capacity to ever be an ace. But I think he can be a very competent and reliable number 2 who pitches every 5th day and is effective to a 3.30ish ERA.

    For his contract, that's incredibly valuable. The problem, he doesn't have what that trade value would be right now because we had to use him as a reliever and he wasn't effective in that role toward the end.

    He needs to start, and that needs to be the end of it. If he's our number 2 next year behind Flaherty, our rotation is pretty damn good.

    I don't want to trade him right now because his trade value is pretty low for what should be a very high trade value player.

    i.e. he's worth more to us than he would be to an acquiring team.

    But if you can get a team who feels the same, and the needs to be matched, I'm not at all opposed to trading him. I think everyone is tired of his stupidity.














    The average MLB team will use 7 starters for at least 10 starts, and will use at least 10 starters for at least 1 start.

    So you need to know your rotation depth for sure through 7 guys, and the fringe guys through 10

    So my rotation for next year

    1. Flaherty - 25+ starts
    2. Martinez - 25+
    3. Hudson - 25+
    4. Mikolas - 25+
    5. Wainwright - 15+
    6. Daniel Poncedeleon - 8+
    7. Austin Gomber - 5+
    8. Alex Reyes - 2+
    9. Genesis Cabrera - 2+
    10. Jake Woodford - 2+

    That's 134+ starts on the docket. Some guys will be healthy and others with major injuries. Hopefully, at some point, someone steals Wainwright's job and we can pencil them into the 2021 rotation.



    I am not a fan at all of re-signing Ozuna. He's a 115 wRC+, defensively liable left fielder. I am only okay with it if we can get someone to take Fowler for basically nothing, and even then, that doesn't make me want to do it.

    I agree on the regressions.

    Here is how I see our lineup next year

    (this isn't the lineup order, just production order - best hitter to worst)
    Goldie - 125 wRC+
    Carpenter - 115 wRC+
    Edman - 110 wRC+
    Martinez - 110 wRC+
    DeJong - 105 wRC+
    Wong - 105 wRC+
    Thomas - 100 wRC+
    Fowler - 95 wRC+
    Bader - 95 wRC+
    O'Neill - 95 wRC+
    Arozarena - 95 wRC+
    Molina - 85 wRC+
    Knizner - 80 wRC+

    We could really really use a 130 wRC+ hitter in there to help provide length.

    I think the following of potentially available hitters exist (through trades or free agency)

    Marcel Ozuna - 115 wRC+
    Jorge Soler - 130 wRC+
    JD Martinez - 130 wRC+
    Nicholas Castellanos - 120 wRC+
    Francisco Lindor - 125 wRC+
    Trevor Story - 120 wRC+
    Mookie Betts - 135 wRC+
    Anthony Rendon - 140 wRC+
    Trey Mancini - 125 wRC+
    Josh Donaldson - 125 wRC+
    Charlie Blackmon - 120 wRC+

    If we feel like we need at the least, a 130 wRC+ hitter to be in the 4 spot in our lineup, Rendon, Martinez, Soler, and Betts are the only one's I see being probable to do that (again probable, not will).

    If we had Soler...check out the lineup

    1. Edman - 110 wRC+
    2. Wong - 105 wRC+
    3. Goldie - 125 wRC+
    4. Soler - 130 wRC+
    5. DeJong - 105 wRC+
    6. Thomas - 100 wRC+
    7. Molina - 85 wRC+
    8. Bader - 95 wRC+

    Bench
    Carpenter - 115 wRC+
    Martinez - 110 wRC+
    Fowler - 95 wRC+
    Knizner - 80 wRC+

    That's a top 5 offense in the NL without much issue, and it's just one change.
    Do you think Rendon will age well? I personally think he will and a 5-6 year contract would be good to give him and then use Gorman as trade bait. I want to keep Carlson, the fact that he has gotten on base every year has me very excited and he is a must keep.

    Hudson and Gorman could very well net us Thor or another very good pitcher.

    Thor
    Flaherty
    Martinez
    Mikolas
    Waino

    That would be a fantastic rotation. We could still very easily trade for Soler still with ONeill and Helsley, maybe a bit more as well.

    Edman LF
    Wong 2B
    Rendon 3B
    Goldy 1B
    Soler RF
    Carlson CF
    Molina C
    DeJong SS

    With Knizner, Fowler, Martinez, Carp on the bench.

    I feel that would be very possible
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  4. #379
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    Do you think Rendon will age well? I personally think he will and a 5-6 year contract would be good to give him and then use Gorman as trade bait. I want to keep Carlson, the fact that he has gotten on base every year has me very excited and he is a must keep.

    Hudson and Gorman could very well net us Thor or another very good pitcher.

    Thor
    Flaherty
    Martinez
    Mikolas
    Waino

    That would be a fantastic rotation. We could still very easily trade for Soler still with ONeill and Helsley, maybe a bit more as well.

    Edman LF
    Wong 2B
    Rendon 3B
    Goldy 1B
    Soler RF
    Carlson CF
    Molina C
    DeJong SS

    With Knizner, Fowler, Martinez, Carp on the bench.

    I feel that would be very possible
    Im not trying to be a dick or rude but how many times do you need to be told that the Mets are not trading Thor? They hired the only guy they interviewed for the GM job that said their roster could win and acquired Stroman as well. Their owner loves Thor. Hes been rumored to be available for two winters and three summers and has not been moved or close to it, one time.

    You can bring up guys like lindor, ramirez, story, laureano, etc guys that could be on their way out or could be had out of left field with the right deal with the right partner. Thor isnt that guy. The GM has his job on the line and he has to win because he says he could win which is why he got the job. They arent trading an ace under control just because you have an offer you think is fair.

  5. #380
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    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    Do you think Rendon will age well? I personally think he will and a 5-6 year contract would be good to give him and then use Gorman as trade bait.
    Historically, third basemen don't age well (they peak earlier than every position except catcher). BUT, Rendon is a pretty special hitter and won't be harmed in value by moving to another position. I think he's a stud, and can be counted on to produce about 20-30 rWAR over the life of whatever his next deal is. So value would be around $175-225M.

    But I don't see us engaging that because they will want Carpenter to try to rebound with his extension and will feel protected since Edman is on the roster now.

    If they did, that would certainly make Gorman available, but personally, I'd rather see what Gorman can do for us, and let Rendon decline elsewhere and use those funds elsewhere.

    I want to keep Carlson, the fact that he has gotten on base every year has me very excited and he is a must keep.
    For sure. I think he's a safe bet to be a 3-4 win player with Bernie Williams level upside, and Dexter Fowler level downside. He's a pretty safe bet to be an everyday big leaguer if there ever was a prospect likely to do that.

    Hudson and Gorman could very well net us Thor or another very good pitcher.
    They probably could. I dunno how much value Hudson would have to other teams though.

    He's very sinker dependent, and he only works on a team that has a great infield defense. The Met's, unfortunately, have probably the worst infield defense in baseball (literally the worst last year), and he'd probably be a 5 ERA pitcher there. I think if Hudson was going to have a high value to any team, it would be a team that ran out our level of infield defense. He doesn't K a lot of people and gives up a good amount of walks. But he gets away with it because he pitches a heavy sinker and gets a ton of ground balls.

    Gorman would have a lot of trade value right now. But I think he should be our long term third basemen. I see a .260/.350/.525 third basemen with solid defense over the next decade. I want that on the roster.

    That would be a fantastic rotation. We could still very easily trade for Soler still with ONeill and Helsley, maybe a bit more as well.
    It for sure would be, but I can't imagine the Met's are willing to trade Thor so quickly.

    I think the most likely starter that gets moved this off-season that I would have an interest in would be Matthew Boyd.

    His home runs allowed would plummet here, and his K/BB is elite. He'd probably be a Cy Young caliber starter for us.

    I know people don't agree, but the ball flys out of Comerica. Put Boyd in a lower home run park, and he could be a Cy Young winner (he gave up 26 of his 39 home runs in Detroit this year)



    If you could send the Tigers Tyler O'Neill and several good but not elite prospects. You have yourself an amazing rotation

    Projected ERA
    1. Flaherty - 3.00
    2. Martinez - 3.30
    3. Boyd - 3.75 (due to park and change to NL)
    4. Hudson - 3.90
    5. Mikolas - 4.10

    Trade for Soler, and you are done. That's an easy division winner. And I think you can trade for both and not move Carlson or Gorman as neither are elite players.

    Boyd is under control another 3 years.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 10-17-2019 at 05:43 PM.

  6. #381
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    Im not trying to be a dick or rude but how many times do you need to be told that the Mets are not trading Thor? They hired the only guy they interviewed for the GM job that said their roster could win and acquired Stroman as well. Their owner loves Thor. Hes been rumored to be available for two winters and three summers and has not been moved or close to it, one time.

    You can bring up guys like lindor, ramirez, story, laureano, etc guys that could be on their way out or could be had out of left field with the right deal with the right partner. Thor isnt that guy. The GM has his job on the line and he has to win because he says he could win which is why he got the job. They arent trading an ace under control just because you have an offer you think is fair.
    For the right offer they would trade Thor. But no one made it at the deadline. It would have to be worth it. Theyd have to get exactly what they want for him but I wont be surprised if we hear his name come up this winter.
    I dont think they are particularly enamoured with him. Hes a whiner. Hes not as good as he probably could be or should be and he makes demands about who he pitches to and went over the coaches head and ran to the BVW to get his way. A poison.

  7. #382
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    Soler isnt getting moved until he turns down the looming royals extension offer. They have a lineup of young hitters with Salvy coming back and they have pitching coming in the next 1-3 years with a new primary owner than spent years winning on a budget in cleveland as a minority owner.

    Their lineup with Soler is a lot like their WS run teams. Sure they are older but Salvy, Soler and Merrifield is their new Moose, Gordon and Hosmer. Mondesi,Lopez or Phillips can/would be their Salvy of this time around.

    Soler is no more available right now than Laureano is with Oakland. Laureano could be had with the right deal with the deal maker in Oakland. Soler could be had if he turns down the looming offer. Neither are available right now and its 50/50 for both of them that they will or wont be in the winter.

  8. #383
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    Quote Originally Posted by marychristine View Post
    For the right offer they would trade Thor. But no one made it at the deadline. It would have to be worth it. Theyd have to get exactly what they want for him but I wont be surprised if we hear his name come up this winter.
    I dont think they are particularly enamoured with him. Hes a whiner. Hes not as good as he probably could be or should be and he makes demands about who he pitches to and went over the coaches head and ran to the BVW to get his way. A poison.

    well if thats all true a top 40 prospect and a young mlb pitcher with success already should be the package they want. anymore with all of those issues you say and well they wont be able to move him.

    You look at what Bauer went for and he had his antics in cleveland, and hes arguable better than thor right now. you can expect more for someone that is a "poison", in reality you should expect less.

  9. #384
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    Soler isnt getting moved until he turns down the looming royals extension offer. They have a lineup of young hitters with Salvy coming back and they have pitching coming in the next 1-3 years with a new primary owner than spent years winning on a budget in cleveland as a minority owner.

    Their lineup with Soler is a lot like their WS run teams. Sure they are older but Salvy, Soler and Merrifield is their new Moose, Gordon and Hosmer. Mondesi,Lopez or Phillips can/would be their Salvy of this time around.

    Soler is no more available right now than Laureano is with Oakland. Laureano could be had with the right deal with the deal maker in Oakland. Soler could be had if he turns down the looming offer. Neither are available right now and its 50/50 for both of them that they will or wont be in the winter.
    Yeah, I don't think he's necessarily likely to be moved, in fact, I agree, he's probably more likely to be extended rather than traded.

    But if he is made available, he's a good fit for our needs.

    There are plenty of potentially good fits out there. Soler, Boyd, Lindor, Betts, etc. that can change the entire complexion of our team.


    I imagine we go the trade route for an outfielder. I think that will be the big move we make. I doubt Ozuna comes back. Otherwise, I think we are looking at mostly the same team next year.

  10. #385
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Historically, third basemen don't age well (they peak earlier than every position except catcher). BUT, Rendon is a pretty special hitter and won't be harmed in value by moving to another position. I think he's a stud, and can be counted on to produce about 20-30 rWAR over the life of whatever his next deal is. So value would be around $175-225M.

    But I don't see us engaging that because they will want Carpenter to try to rebound with his extension and will feel protected since Edman is on the roster now.

    If they did, that would certainly make Gorman available, but personally, I'd rather see what Gorman can do for us, and let Rendon decline elsewhere and use those funds elsewhere.


    For sure. I think he's a safe bet to be a 3-4 win player with Bernie Williams level upside, and Dexter Fowler level downside. He's a pretty safe bet to be an everyday big leaguer if there ever was a prospect likely to do that.


    They probably could. I dunno how much value Hudson would have to other teams though.

    He's very sinker dependent, and he only works on a team that has a great infield defense. The Met's, unfortunately, have probably the worst infield defense in baseball (literally the worst last year), and he'd probably be a 5 ERA pitcher there. I think if Hudson was going to have a high value to any team, it would be a team that ran out our level of infield defense. He doesn't K a lot of people and gives up a good amount of walks. But he gets away with it because he pitches a heavy sinker and gets a ton of ground balls.

    Gorman would have a lot of trade value right now. But I think he should be our long term third basemen. I see a .260/.350/.525 third basemen with solid defense over the next decade. I want that on the roster.


    It for sure would be, but I can't imagine the Met's are willing to trade Thor so quickly.

    I think the most likely starter that gets moved this off-season that I would have an interest in would be Matthew Boyd.

    His home runs allowed would plummet here, and his K/BB is elite. He'd probably be a Cy Young caliber starter for us.

    I know people don't agree, but the ball flys out of Comerica. Put Boyd in a lower home run park, and he could be a Cy Young winner (he gave up 26 of his 39 home runs in Detroit this year)



    If you could send the Tigers Tyler O'Neill and several good but not elite prospects. You have yourself an amazing rotation

    Projected ERA
    1. Flaherty - 3.00
    2. Martinez - 3.30
    3. Boyd - 3.75 (due to park and change to NL)
    4. Hudson - 3.90
    5. Mikolas - 4.10

    Trade for Soler, and you are done. That's an easy division winner. And I think you can trade for both and not move Carlson or Gorman as neither are elite players.

    Boyd is under control another 3 years.
    I think you have to retain Waino even with that rotation. Flaherty pitched more innings than he ever has. Im not saying hes going to have a bad year but hes 23 so some regression wouldnt be surprising at least early. I'd skip him in starts with Waino here and there until we get to late July into August. We've seen our young talented pitchers pitch a season, be great then never come close to it after. im not saying that will happen here but you have to do some preventable maintenance here. You want to plan on him pitching at most 8 times in the playoffs if you want to win it all and all series go the distance. If hes Black Jack thats at least 48 to 56 additional innings. i'd try to cut his innings early to where his season total is around 175. Then if you get the same results from him next year you can remove all training wheels in 2021.

  11. #386
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    well if thats all true a top 40 prospect and a young mlb pitcher with success already should be the package they want. anymore with all of those issues you say and well they wont be able to move him.

    You look at what Bauer went for and he had his antics in cleveland, and hes arguable better than thor right now. you can expect more for someone that is a "poison", in reality you should expect less.
    Bauer is a pretty good comp actually

    But Bauer had 1.5 years left on his deal and has publicly stated he is going to free agency multiple times.

    Thor has 2 years left right now, next deadline, he'd have the same control left as Bauer did when he was moved.

    Bauer's deal was complicated because it was a three team deal, but ultimately, the Indians ended up with Puig, Moss, Nova, Allen, and Reyes

    So a 2.5 win outfielder with half a year of control left (28)
    A former top 100 pitching prospect who was struggling when dealt (22)
    A 1.5 win outfielder who was emerging with 4.5 years left (23)
    a Bat first organizational top 30 prospect (19)
    An injury riddled 4th rounder with upside (24)

    For the Cards, that would be a player like what Ozuna was last year at the deadline (we don't really have a match today though)but let's say Kolten Wong who is entering his last year of his true contract
    Alex Reyes
    Tommy Edman
    Luken Baker
    Stephen Gingery

    Obviously, that is both of our second basemen, I'm just trying to find equivalent value (Wong is the worst fit in this deal, we just don't have a good match for the Puig value).

  12. #387
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Bauer is a pretty good comp actually

    But Bauer had 1.5 years left on his deal and has publicly stated he is going to free agency multiple times.

    Thor has 2 years left right now, next deadline, he'd have the same control left as Bauer did when he was moved.

    Bauer's deal was complicated because it was a three team deal, but ultimately, the Indians ended up with Puig, Moss, Nova, Allen, and Reyes

    So a 2.5 win outfielder with half a year of control left (28)
    A former top 100 pitching prospect who was struggling when dealt (22)
    A 1.5 win outfielder who was emerging with 4.5 years left (23)
    a Bat first organizational top 30 prospect (19)
    An injury riddled 4th rounder with upside (24)

    For the Cards, that would be a player like what Ozuna was last year at the deadline (we don't really have a match today though)but let's say Kolten Wong who is entering his last year of his true contract
    Alex Reyes
    Tommy Edman
    Luken Baker
    Stephen Gingery

    Obviously, that is both of our second basemen, I'm just trying to find equivalent value (Wong is the worst fit in this deal, we just don't have a good match for the Puig value).

    I would say do that trade and sign Didi. He doesnt save runs but he doesnt make many errors either so if he gets to it he fields it. i brought him up during the season and he was hitting around .280. doesnt walk, doesnt strikeout. i dont know what happened after that because his numbers fell off a cliff. dont know if it was production/injuries or a combination of both as he played in only 82 games. i know he was coming back off of TJ surgery so missed games early but I mean his numbers really fell off a cliff. but if you think he would rebound i'd argue his defense would go up in value at 2nd compared to ss, what other reason is there when scouts who cover prospects suggest a ss prospect who has fielding issues would be better off at second. i just assume naturally that its the easier position to play, and throwing it is as you are just as close to 2nd and closer to first. not many times in a year will a 2b be throwing across the diamond to 3b.

  13. #388
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    I think you have to retain Waino even with that rotation. Flaherty pitched more innings than he ever has. Im not saying hes going to have a bad year but hes 23 so some regression wouldnt be surprising at least early. I'd skip him in starts with Waino here and there until we get to late July into August. We've seen our young talented pitchers pitch a season, be great then never come close to it after. im not saying that will happen here but you have to do some preventable maintenance here. You want to plan on him pitching at most 8 times in the playoffs if you want to win it all and all series go the distance. If hes Black Jack thats at least 48 to 56 additional innings. i'd try to cut his innings early to where his season total is around 175. Then if you get the same results from him next year you can remove all training wheels in 2021.
    Sure, but Jack threw 213 innings this year. The data says to not make pitchers jump more than 40 innings a year.

    At this point, with a full off-season, and regular 5th day starts, Jack should be able to do 32 starts next year, and pitch a full post-season without much issue.

    Flaherty has some of the stronger periphs in the game. They would suggest he is pretty sustainable.

    Shelby Miller, for example, never had periphs anywhere close to this.

  14. #389
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farty Farts View Post
    I would say do that trade and sign Didi. He doesnt save runs but he doesnt make many errors either so if he gets to it he fields it. i brought him up during the season and he was hitting around .280. doesnt walk, doesnt strikeout. i dont know what happened after that because his numbers fell off a cliff. dont know if it was production/injuries or a combination of both as he played in only 82 games. i know he was coming back off of TJ surgery so missed games early but I mean his numbers really fell off a cliff. but if you think he would rebound i'd argue his defense would go up in value at 2nd compared to ss, what other reason is there when scouts who cover prospects suggest a ss prospect who has fielding issues would be better off at second. i just assume naturally that its the easier position to play, and throwing it is as you are just as close to 2nd and closer to first. not many times in a year will a 2b be throwing across the diamond to 3b.
    Are you suggesting we sign him and then trade Wong?

    I don't see that as really an upgrade anywhere. I would think Didi, on his best bet, would be about the same value as Wong.

    In 2018, Didi's good year, he was a 4.2 rWAR player, as a shortstop
    Wong this past year, was a 4.7 rWAR player

    Wong is only going to make $10.25M this year.

    I believe our infield is set, I would look at the outfield for where we might make a move.

  15. #390
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Are you suggesting we sign him and then trade Wong?

    I don't see that as really an upgrade anywhere. I would think Didi, on his best bet, would be about the same value as Wong.

    In 2018, Didi's good year, he was a 4.2 rWAR player, as a shortstop
    Wong this past year, was a 4.7 rWAR player

    Wong is only going to make $10.25M this year.

    I believe our infield is set, I would look at the outfield for where we might make a move.
    Im suggesting if your trade gets thor you do it and replace the departure of Wong with Didi since you said we'd lose both 2b. Didi may not be an upgrade over Wong but if you get Thor he is an upgrade over Wong and Didi just fills in for Wong even if it costs more than Wong does. I'd wager Didi wouldnt cost more than 12/13 million tops per year which isnt a huge jump from what you were paying Wong and consider you got Thor and have control over him its probably a better investment as you maintain at one spot and upgrade the other. Plus Wong still hasnt produced for a whole year here, not saying he cant but even with the great three months he had hes still streaky AF.

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