Brewers 2020 Offseason

[crewfan13]

We signed Brett Anderson, another decent value deal but from the perspective of competing in the playoffs meh.

The Rangers basically gave up a good young reliever for Corey Kluber, I'm sure we have 17 million and could have put together a better package. Devin Williams, Ben Gamel, and a mid level prospect would probably have been as good or better.

Two things with kluber. Either the league as a whole is more concerned about his injury or decline than i am/we are or the Indians are absolutely in love with that reliever. I actually think it might be the 2nd one though. Some of the rumors of who they were asking for from other teams seem to indicate they were looking for top end guys.

[jay87shot]

Yeah, Clase throws an easy 100, but I still think we could have found a better package than 1 hard throwing reliever and a throw-in 4th OF.

We signed Avi Garcia 2/20 yesterday. I really don't like this signing much. I feel like it was an overpay for a medicore player in a stacked corner OF market of similar player. I much rather would have paid Nic Castallanos 4/60 and had a decent middle of the order bat or a guy like Corey Dickerson or Kole Calhoun at a cheaper price.

Garcia in all likelihood will be a decent player hit around .275-.300 not many walks 20-25 HR's. He appeared to get better at least statistically in the OF but I remember him being awful with the White Sox. He seems to have decent speed but 6'4 250 doesn't scream great baserunner. There is some upside but not much more than the other 5-8 corner OF's who haven't signed yet.

[jay87shot]

Brewers signed Ryon Healy and Jace Peterson. Nice depth moves, Healy has some upside just based on power, I would think he could be a nice platoon option at 1st. Peterson isn't much but another Tyler Saladino type depth player. I think we are up to 38 players on the 40 man, although there are 3-4 that could easily be cut. I doubt we get Kuechel or Ryu the only 2 top of the rotation starters left so maybe Stearns has a trade in the works. With the 1st/3rd market not real strong I'm sure we will here something there shortly although I would guess Braun plays a great deal of 1st.

Any chance Braun gets traded? It seems like we could trade him for a 3B with a bigger salary. With his 10/5 rights I would guess it would be still extremely hard to trade him. Here is a 3 team deal that could work.

Brewers get Kyle Seager Angels get Braun Seattle gets prospects (maybe eats a bit of Seager's contract). We get a good 3B, Angels make a great lineup (on paper) and Seattle sheds some salary and picks up a little prospect value. Braun might wave his trade protection to go to LA, not have to play 1st, and be able to DH a bit (when Pujols and Otani aren't).

[jay87shot]

With Smoak the team basically has a acceptable 26 man. Obviously we aren't done but we kind of have every spot covered.

Vs Righties 1)Cain CF 2)Sogard 3B 3)Yeli LF 4)Huira 2B 5)Braun/Garcia RF 6)Smoak 1B 7)Narvaez C 8)Urias SS
Vs Lefties . 1)Cain CF 2)Urias 3B 3)Yeli LF 4)Huira 2B 5)Braun 1B 6)RF Garcia 7)Pina C 8) Arcia SS

Bench) Healy (if healthy), Gamel

Rotation-Woodruff, Anderson, Houser, Lindblom, Lauer
Pen- Hader, Knebel, Peralta, Suter, Claudio, and 3 of D Williams, Black, Faria, Wahl, or Burnes

[crewfan13]

I guess now I'm holding out hope for a massive haul in a Hader trade to salvage the offseason. I don't know that any individual move we made was bad per se, and I get why we didn't sign some of the guys who got signed. But it really felt like we got caught with our pants down. Not sure if we were anticipating a slow market and thought we'd be able to steal someone on a short term deal, but at some point, we have to spend. We can't just keep peice mealing crap together on 1 year deals and hoping it all comes together perfectly.

[jay87shot]

Agreed Crewfan, I can't say this team is any better than last year and the long term future doesn't look real great. It seems a quantity over quality approach which is probably needed at this point of our small market pattern with no farm system. I can't see the sign 7 or 8 1 year contract guys and get 5-6 of them to work out actually be successful for more than a year. It makes for an interesting offseason but we will need some young guys to really develop fast or come out of nowhere to sustain success.

[gopackgo87]

I don't get the Sogard deal. Also, I don't get the lack of rotation moves. I can see not signing guys to big deals but some guys were there to be had. But Smoak should bounce back, horrible luck. Should hit 30 dingers in MKE with regular PT. SS still up in the air. 3B is going to be brutal most likely unless Gyorko or Healy, if healthy, makes a big impact. OF should be really solid and Braun hopefully can play 4 times a week and not be heavily depended upon.

[crewfan13]

From some of the pressers, I think the plan at 3rd is a gyorko/sogard platoon at 3rd. Realistically, the hope is that you can roughly replicate Moose with that platoon, albeit with likely less pop but more obp to try to even things out. And Healy is sort of the insurance in case 1 of them doesn't hold up their end of the bargain as he doesn't have massive splits gaps (although neither does sogard). I think there's definitely a scenario where that could happen. That being said, there's plenty of scenarios where that doesn't happen either.

And that's probably a similar case at 1B. After the Garcia signing, Braun will definitely play some 1st and be in a platoon with smoak. Smoak probably goes a little heavy on that platoon and has some days where he hits vs lefties and probably is late inning Braun replacement on most off days.

But all in all, it's really hard to see how this team improved. If you squint and wear your brewers tinted shades, you can put together a scenario where things go well and we're a playoff team, but ultimately I think we're in a similar spot where we sort of need everything to go right to make the playoffs again.

[crewfan13]

Looking around the diamond, (assuming no major injuries), I think it looks like this primarily.

C-narvaez/pina which is a downgrade both offensively and defensively. Pina can maybe replicate YG defense and Omar may get close on offense, but together they're definitely a downgrade as a whole.

1B-smoak/Braun which is maybe a slight upgrade. Thames hit pretty well last year but Aggy struggled and got enough ABs early. So it should be better but I don't think it's a major upgrade.

2B-huira. Full season for KH should be a slight upgrade to last year since he wasn't around all year but his defense still stinks. It's possible there's some offensive regression from KH though too. So this could push.

SS-urias/arcia. Arcia was awful offensively and was not a major plus on defense. This should be an upgrade.

3B-sogard/jedd-already discussed but likely downgrade with a possible push.

OF-should be interesting. Yeli is phenomenal, but I wouldn't be shocked if he had a slight come down, but still an elite player. Cain is a question mark. Could bounce back or last year could have been the start of his decline. Braun is kind of in the same boat. Could see age related decline. Garcia is a wild card. His at bats should be better than gamel and Grisham as a whole and hell steal some Braun at bats, which is okay. But he's been up and down as a whole. This should be an upgrade but there's some risk.

SP-no idea where this goes. Anderson and Davies both put up okay numbers but probably pitched over their heads. Chacin stink. Losing grandal might hurt the staff. Lindblom is an unknown. Anderson and lauer could be Wade Miley like projects or they could just suck. Houser deserves a chance but I wouldn't be shocked if he regresses. Woody is good. I could see this rotation being better, worse or the same and really have no clue how to determine which one it will be. Maybe burnes or Peralta makes a jump.

RP-bullpens are always volatile. Assuming Hader is roughly Hader and knebel bounces back to his old form, it should be better. But the rest is a weird combination of guys that I have no idea how they'll pan out.

And those are semi optimistic. If Braun regresses or struggles defensively and smoak plays like he did last year, neither of which are crazy scenarios, 1st base could be worse. 3B and C both have a risk of fairly significant drop-off from last year to the tune of a combined 4-5 war wouldn't be out of the question if all those guys are replacement level or just above. And outside of SS, there's not really a ton of places where there's the chance of significantly better performance. Its fairly likely the offense will be worse.

So it comes down to the pitching being better to keep us in it. I just don't look at a rotation of some combination of Woody, houser, lindblom, Lauer, Anderson, burnes, suter and Peralta as a group I think can take big strides forward.

And that doesn't even address the arguement that we may have over achieved last year. If that's true, then simply being about as good as we were last year probably has us on the outside looking in to the playoffs by a couple game margin.

[Primestein]

Kept waiting for the big signing, never got it. YG’s offense will be missed. His defense wasn’t anything special. He miss balls thrown right down the middle of the plate. Pina is a better option from that stand point. Still YG had some clutch AB’s. I still think every infield position is up in the air on whether it was upgraded, Including SS. Hopefully someone emerges at SS with better numbers than they’ve each put up in their career so far. I think the rotation is in a better spot at the start of the year vs last. It’s still not good though. Bullpen was probably upgraded if everyone comes back from injuries. Overall at this point we’ll finish behind the cards, cubs and reds for the division. We essentially are rebuilding but hoping to have enough quality names to make people come to the ball park and with all these 1 yr deals. We’ll do the same crap next year.

[jay87shot]

So here are my predictions for stats assuming no major injuries and no trades. I will try and do math in a later post.

C- Narvaez G115 .275/.350/.800 20 HR 60 RBI Starts of really good and fades throughout the year.
C- Pina . G 80 .270/335/750 8 HR Finds a lot of success hitting only lefties
1B- Smoak G 115 .235/.350/.800 25 HR 65 rbi Plays well enough to keep spot in lineup vs. righties but not much else
2B- Huira G 145 .300/.365/.925 35 HR 100 rbi 15 sb Continues last years work, defense a little better but not a lot
2B/SS/3B Urias G 115 .275/.340/.775 15 HR 50 rbi 10 sb Misses a month eventually by May takes over SS full time
SS Arcia G 25 .220/.265 Cut/Traded/Demoted by June
SS/3B Sogard G 145 .275/.350/.750 12 HR 50 rbi lots of pinch hit opportunities when not starting
3B Gyroko G 60 .230/.300 8 HR eventually Healy gets a chance to platoon with Sogard
3B/1B Healy G25 .220/270 5 HR Healy starts fast but fades quickly doesn't last long
RF Garcia G 120 .285/325/.800 25 HR 80 rbi Garcia does a respectable job but number fueled by 2 or 3 hot spots.
OF/1B Braun G 115 .275/.350/.800 15 HR 60 rbi Nothing special, a couple big moments that wrap up time here well
CF Cain G 130 .300/.370/.750 10 Hr 30 sb He gets healthy after a rough year and finds his form as a leadoff.
LF Yeli G 150 .320/.400/.975 40 Hr/115 rbi/20 sb Another mvp calibar year, the move to left makes him a gold glove candidate as well.
OF Gamel g100 .250/320 A lot of pinch hit and defensive replacements but not a lot of starts

Others to play
David Frietas, Mark Mathius, Corey Ray, probably a couple other but not for more than a week or 2 or September call-ups

Pitching
Woodruff 3.5 ERA 30 starts 180 innings
Houser 3.8 ERA 30 starts 165 innings
Anderson 4 ERA 25 Starts 130 innings
Lauer 4.2 ERA 30 starts 160 innnings
Lindblom 4.2 ERA 25 starts 130 innings
Burnes 5 starts, Supak/Brown 5 starts, Peralta/Suter/Whoever 12 bullpen day starts, that leaves about 650 innings for the pen.

Unless Woodruff has a huge breakout or Houser continues like he did consistentcy 5 innings 2 runs or 6 and 3 runs is likely the best we can hope for.
Hader 2 ERA 70 innings 125 k
Knebel 2.5 ERA 45 innings 65 k
Peralta 3 ERA 80 innings 110 k
Phelps 3.2 ERA 50 innings
D Williams 3.3 ERA 50 innings
Wahl 3.3 ERA 50 innings
Black 4 ERA 30 innings
Suter 3.5 ERA 85 innings
Claudio 4 ERA 50 innings
Feyersien 4 ERA 30 innings

That leaves about 100 innings unaccounted for, maybe Brown or Supak make a bunch of bullpen appearances. Obviously there are a few guys who could throw more. I am betting on of Peralta, Williams, or Wahl beat my predictions and turn into a really nice late inning option.

[crewfan13]

Kudos to you for putting it together. I'll be the guy who simply makes remarks on it instead of doing the work.

All in all, I think there's a few things. Pina might be a touch high. And part of the reason for that is I dont think hell be a pure platoon guy. I think catcher is a bit of an odd position to do that with. I don't doubt they'll try to set it up so he faces lefties more, but I also think pitchers are comfortable with certain catchers, so I think it'll be closer to a 3/2 pitcher split in favor of Omar with pina providing a late inning defensive sub at times. So pina will still probsbly face alot of righties, which probably hurts his slash line.

I think we'll see a bit of offensive regression from hiura. PETCOA really is anticipating a step back. I think hell be a guy who outperforms PETCOA fairly often, but I still think he comes back down to earth some. His highish K rate, lowish walk rate and high BABIP, suggest he's rate some risk of regression. I think he probably ends up settling in closer to .270 or .280 for the foreseeable future. Last year 19 players who qualified for the batting title his over .300. Only 2 of those guys had a k rate of over 25%. Only 6 of those guys had a k rate of over 20%. Hiura was at 30% last year in the bigs and was over 25% in AAA too.

Of the 6 who were over 20%. 3 had unsustainably high BABIP to the tune of 0.406, 0.399 and 0.387. The other 3 were big time power threats in yelich, Cruz and JD Martinez. So I guess to me, you either need to be a consistent 40 homer threat guy or you need to have a BABIP of pretty much 0.390, which is phenomenally high. I do think hiura will be a high BABIP guy, but consistently over 0.380 is going to be tough. I think that's a tough ask for hiura.

[gopackgo87]

In their sign a guy who is better off a fill-in than an everyday player offseason, Brewers sign Brock Holt. Guessing he plays 3B. I probably like him more than Sogard as I don't think Sogard duplicates is 2019 stats offensively. It is going to be interesting to see how this all shakes out in ST.

Yelich going to play LF, Garcia in RF..I like that and expected that.

[jay87shot]

I like Holt a lot not sure how he fits. It would have been nice if maybe we could have combined the money we paid Holt, Sogard, and Gyorko and just got a solid full time starter like Didi or someone like that. I'd assume Holt plays a lot of 3rd and SS (at least until Urias is back to full speed) and a little 2nd or even 1st occasionally.

Not living in Wisconsin anymore I was looking into mlb.tv to stream games, anyone have any insight on that vs. MLB extra innings pack (which I've had before).

[gopackgo87]

I like Holt a lot not sure how he fits. It would have been nice if maybe we could have combined the money we paid Holt, Sogard, and Gyorko and just got a solid full time starter like Didi or someone like that. I'd assume Holt plays a lot of 3rd and SS (at least until Urias is back to full speed) and a little 2nd or even 1st occasionally.

Not living in Wisconsin anymore I was looking into mlb.tv to stream games, anyone have any insight on that vs. MLB extra innings pack (which I've had before).

I think one of Holt or Sogard would do. I don't really see the need for both and didn't like 4.5 mill for Sogard to begin with. I agree though that seems like we have 5 guys who play 2B/3B when Hiura will have 2B locked down. Not a fan of 3 out of 4 positions on infield basically being a platoon. I hope Urias can be up quickly. I want to see him get regular PT.