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  1. #31
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    Brewers traded Trent Grisham and Zach Davies for Luis Urias, Eric Lauer and a Ptbnl or cash.

    I personally love the deal. I've never been a huge Davies fan. Good era last year but didn't have the peripherals to support it and struggled down the stretch. He was also pretty brutal the year before and almost didnt earn a spot. Grisham had a phenomenal year in the minors, but had fallen off the prospect radar. Apparently scouts buy his breakout and think it's somewhat sustainable in the sense that he's turned the corner.

    Urias was pretty much a consensus top 50 to even top 25 prospect. He Asli crushed AAA but struggled in the bigs. He played 2nd for them but should be able to handle SS. He's super young so I'm still optimistic that he reaches his potential. Lauer is probably a reliever. He's sort of a suter type of pitcher. Good deception and variety of stuff but not great velocity. He's also a guy who's good once through the order but then gets sketchy. Wouldnt be shocked if we try to piggy back him for a few innings every few days. Someone on Twitter made a good point that there's a decent chance it's a rule 5 eligible guy so they'll wait to see if he gets drafted.

    I think what I really like about the deal is we might be selling high on both Davies and Grisham and buying low on urias, which is smart. The other thing is if Braun stays in left, there's not a ton of at bats for Grisham. Plus, I do still think there's a decent chance that hiura ends up in the OF in the not so distant future if he struggles at 2nd again this year. So even if Grisham turns into a good player, it still probably doesnt kill us, as long as he isn't a stud.

  2. #32
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    I feel a little underwhelmed by the trade to be honest. Yes we get a top prospect. Iím not willing to give up on arcia yet, arcia makes plays that other short stops just canít... and second isnít an option with the way Huira hits.

    Davies Iím glad they moved. I think we knew what he was at this point. I donít see how this trade makes the team better though. Braun only plays 1/2 a season and Grisham seemed like maybe a good guy to have around for the next couple years until they figure out that situation.

    Ultimately this team needs proven starting pitching, not guys we hope can figure it out. Which is what we seem to rely on. IMO SP, 1st, 3rd, and C are more important areas to fill on the roster than having someone to compete with Arcia.

    Just my two cents and probably wrong

  3. #33
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    Last season, arcia was the worst qualified hitter in all of baseball. And I don't recall exactly where he finished, but going into the last week he was on pace for either the worst or 2nd worst hitting season in brewers history. And as CC said mid season, he was making mental errors in the field. In today's age of K/BB/HR style baseball, SD defense isn't quite as valuable as it used to be.

    And that's what I love about the deal. I agree 3B, C, 1B and P are needs. But so was SS. And now we not only gave ourselves a shot at an upgraded SS, not to mention possibly a huge upgrade, but we also freed up $4.5 mill in cash to spend on those spots. It's very possible we sign a C or 1B with that $4.5 mill and come out of this deal with a starting SS, 1B and RP for our 4th OF and a borderline SP/RP guy. Thats a win in my books.

  4. #34
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    oh, I donít disagree that Arciaís numbers were pretty terrible. However he had some clutch at bats that donít show up in metrics. He did have some mental errors in the field though too and if he canít hit he needs to produce in the field. I just feel like the organization is giving up on him too soon, similar to J.J. Hardy or Jean Segura. All-Stars after leaving Milwaukee. Iíd be willing to give him some more time to see if he can figure out hitting. Just because someone is top 25 prospect, doesnít mean their a good major leaguer. They have to prove they can play. Iím just not sure the brewers gained anything of substantial value in this trade vs what they have or had. Thatís really the point I guess Iím trying to make and there are bigger needs. Iím worried that weíre in a rebuild mode. I feel like before the last offseason, the brewers really just needed starting pitching, completely ignored it and shipped guys out for more position players. Same thing seems to be happening so far this offseason. Weíre creating more holes vs filling them. Itíll be interesting to see what other moves they make.

  5. #35
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    Giving up on him too soon? Dude has 1600 career major league at bats over 4 seasons. In 3 of those 4 seasons he was a negative WAR, including 2 consecutive seasons. In his career, his WAR is 0.2. Urias had an underwhelming half of a first season and accumulated 0.1 WAR. What's the purpose of running him out there again, he's shown virtually nothing to indicate he's going to improve.

    And as for clutch, he is better with men in scoring position than he is normally. That being said, he's still a significantly below average hitter with men in scoring position. It's not like he morphs into even a league average guy with RISP.

    And we hardly gave up on hardy. He was traded because Escobar was waiting in the wings. And we dealt him for gomez, who turned into an all star for us and also was the centerpiece of the deal that netted us Hader, houser, Domingo and Phillips. Hardly say that was a bad deal.

    And sure Segura broke out after he left Milwaukee, but you can't now refuse to move underwhelming guys because of that.

    And I dont get your logic. You refuse to write off arcia after 1600 at bats but refuse to acknowledge the upside of urais because he struggled in 271 at bats? Urias was projected by scouts to have a 70 hit tool. If I'm banking on one of them having a bounce back, its urias for sure.

    The brewers aren't in rebuilding mode. This isn't a rebuild mode. They sold high on Davies who legit may not have made the rotation next year. And the improved a position of need without spending money and actually saving money. If anything, this move helps them with their quest for starters as it frees up cash.

  6. #36
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    Itís all numbers with you eh? Thatís fine... chill a little though. We root for the same team and want the same success.

    Yes I think 4 seasons is too soon for a guy thatís gifted defensively as possibly one of the best, if not the best, in that area right now. He also seems to be a good clubhouse guy too. Iím not saying sign him to a rickie weeks contract or anything like that. Iím simply saying donít give up on the guy Just yet. Hardy, Kris Davis, Scooter, Segura all guys that got better after leaving and all just needed more time. I get why milwaukee moved them and I realize other pieces of the team get added. Itís simply my point that some guys take longer to figure it out.

    And for the record I didnít write off Urias. I just simply said he needs to prove himself and just because heís considered a top 25 prospect doesnít mean that translates to the major league level and it didnít his first go around. Maybe it will in Milwaukee?

    AGAIN the point I was trying to make is that there are bigger holes for this team to fill right now that SS. Davies would have definitely been in the rotation to start the year because they simply donít have enough SP right now. now we have another unproven young arm that probably has less of chance than Davies to start in the rotation..and for the record I think Davies is awful. So Iím glad they moved him for something. If we want to make a serious run we need a serious arm.

    Right now the brewers arenít better than they were and without sept call ups this year, I fear itís a .500 or worse team at the moment

    Letís what else they do this offseason. They need more.

  7. #37
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    And I disagree. SS was arguably their biggest need. Arcia has gotten this rep as an elite defender when none of the numbers really show that. He was 30th amongst SS with at least 200 innings in uzr. In total defensive value per fangraphs, he was 17th amongst that same group. If the advanced stats aren't your style, he was 22nd in fielding percentage.

    That's all in line with his career. And yes, im all about numbers. Without numbers, you're a prisoner to the narrative. Which is exactly what you're doing. The narrative around arcia is that he's a stud defender. But over his career, he's never shown anything other than average to above average defense. Which is fine if there's anything on offense. But hes one of the worst hitters in baseball. I would rather role Travis shaw our at 1st or 3rd than start arcia again.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    And I disagree. SS was arguably their biggest need. Arcia has gotten this rep as an elite defender when none of the numbers really show that. He was 30th amongst SS with at least 200 innings in uzr. In total defensive value per fangraphs, he was 17th amongst that same group. If the advanced stats aren't your style, he was 22nd in fielding percentage.

    That's all in line with his career. And yes, im all about numbers. Without numbers, you're a prisoner to the narrative. Which is exactly what you're doing. The narrative around arcia is that he's a stud defender. But over his career, he's never shown anything other than average to above average defense. Which is fine if there's anything on offense. But hes one of the worst hitters in baseball. I would rather role Travis shaw our at 1st or 3rd than start arcia again.
    Dude, you know in your heart Arcia makes plays others just canít. And the Travis Shaw comment is just crazy. But Iím sure youíll pull some numbers out to justify it. Which is everything wrong with just looking at numbers. I honestly donít even know where to go with the conversation after a comment like that. But hey we donít have a 3rd basemen or 1st basemen right now. Iím glad we addressed that SS position with some prospects and players we could have used for positions WE DONíT HAVE yet addressed. We must have different opinions what. Need is on a roster.

  9. #39
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    Making a handful of plays most others can't isn't the definition of good defense. No defensive stat is perfect, but virtually no defensive stat has arcia as an elite defender. Defensive runs saved is one often used when discussing gold gloves. Arcia avarages 3 runs saved per year. He has 12 runs saved in his 4 years by that metric. Elite defenders save 15-20 runs per year. But sure arcia is elite because he makes some plays others don't.

    And you don't want to give up on guys too soon. Shaw has played 5 years in the bigs. Up until last year, every year had a positive fWAR, meaning he was above replacement level. And not only was it positive, but every year was at least +1 and 2 of the years were +3 war seasons.
    Arcia has played 4 years in the bigs and 3 of his 4 years have been below replacement level. If you a blind test with names removed, 99% of people would pick shaw as more likely to bounce back than arcia.

  10. #40
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    Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the brewers have made Hader available in trade talks.

    Interesting to say the least. Have to imagine we are asking for a haul. But if a 70 inning reliever can fetch us a young, controllable every day player, I'd be interested.

  11. #41
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    I love the trade, not only because of Urias upside but I'm completely done with Arcia and it also provides us with two unseen positives. The 1st being that we save 5 million in salary from Davies and gain 2 years control from Lauer. The second being that Arcia can now be traded, even though he doesn't have much value there should be a team that would part with something for him. Arcia is still 25 and has a great glove we should be able to get a mid-level prospect or a reliever. I would think a team like Detriot would take a flier on him, not that they have much we would want.

    I would be ok with trading Hader but I would want at least 2 mlb ready pieces and probably a 3rd in the form of a prospect. I would look for a 1B or 3B, a mlb ready reliever, and a decent prospect. The Mets would be interesting say Edwin Diaz, Dominic Smith or JD Davis, and a mid-level prospect. I could live with that trade but I am sure we could get some higher end talent. Rockies could do Ryan McMahon, Ryan Rolison, and a reliever again not bad but we could probably do better. Look at what Chapman bought the Yankees for 1 year we could shoot for the moon.

  12. #42
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    I just can't imagine really getting anything of value for arcia. Of players with at least 1500 at bats since he's been in the league, his wRC+ is the 3rd worst (only Billy Hamilton and alcides Escobar have been worse). And in that same sample set, only 5 players have a worse fWAR.

    And part of the issue with him is that he has no bat and really only has experience playing 1 defensive position, so he's not a super valuable utility guy. I'm sure he could handle 2nd too, but he doesn't really have much experience at it.

  13. #43
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    I am not thinking much for Arcia maybe a AAAA reliever like we got Bobby Wahl last year or Ray Black mid-season.

    We really are opening up a bunch of money any chance we are going to pursue a big-time free agent? I doubt Cole, Strasburg, or Rendon but financially we could make it work for at least a couple years until Yeli hits FA.

    Also I could see the Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, and Rays making sense for Hader. I think the Rays really make a ton of sense the way they use the pen and some of the mlb ready young pieces they have. The Red Sox would be interesting because they are looking to shed some salary but I doubt they would give up any of their ultra talented players (Bogaerts, Devers, Betts) for Hader maybe an amazing 3 team deal would work.

  14. #44
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    I'm not even sure arcia fetches that. I think maybe a swap of non tender candidates at best.

    The Mets seem to be interested. Like you said, something starting with a Dom Smith would make sense. Not sure what else they have, but hes a logical fit from a roster perspective.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the brewers have made Hader available in trade talks.

    Interesting to say the least. Have to imagine we are asking for a haul. But if a 70 inning reliever can fetch us a young, controllable every day player, I'd be interested.
    Rebuild.

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