Brewers 2020 Offseason

[gopackgo87]

Well after that crushing defeat have to look ahead to 2020. DS will have to work his magic as I would love to have Yaz back but doubt he returns and there will be plenty of holes and other positions that need bolstering. I will try and be realistic on offseason potential moves that I could see happening.

For catcher I can see a Wellington Castillo or Alex Avila to split time with Pina.

3B will be interesting..Moose? I can see Braun spending more time at first vs. LHP and Brewers going with Cain, Grisham and Yelich in the OF. Thames option will be picked up.

For my moves, I think an upgrade in the rotation, maybe an Odorizzi or someone like that. Don't see Brewers throwing 200+ million at Cole or Strasburg and getting those types. But Odorizzi is solid. Maybe a Alex Wood on 1-year deal.

Then there needs to be an upgrade at SS and Iglesias from the Reds would be a target for me. 2 or 3 year deal likely lands him around $8M AAV.

Then I go and make a strength even stronger. Bring Will Smith back to MKE. Him and Knebel late and have Hader back in most valuable role coming in anytime between 6-8 inning in key situations for multiple outs.

[jay87shot]

So I estimate we will have around 54 million in commitments to players under contract and between 25-35 million in pre-arb/arb players depending on who gets cut, as well as Thames option. So here is my plan.

1) Cut=Anderson, Shaw, Perez, Nelson, Tyler Austin, Tyrone Taylor, Taylor Williams

Anderson is due 8.5 million and at best is a 5th starter not worth that. Shaw, Nelson, and Perez won't be worth their projected arb values. While the last three are just 40 man casualties.

Pick up Thames option and extend and re-work Yeli's deal. Thames is a borderline decision but I think he brings a good amount of leadership/chemistry that would make me pick up his option unless better option comes along (trade or cheap free agent). I've been hoping we could maybe extend Yeli 2 or 3 years at roughly 30 million a year and then spread that amount out over the 3 years of control and then the 2 or 3 extra years. For math calculations I won't include this but I think it would be a good thing to check in with Yeli's agents.

Judging on those moves we would have around 50 million without extra revenue from the MLB tv deals.

Free Agents
Re-Sign=Moose 2/26 with a team option for year 3, Pomeranz 2/10, Lyles 1yr 7 with a larger year 2 team option.
Free Agents= Dallas Kuechel 3/60, Alex Avila 1/3, 1B

I doubt we are able to keep both Moose and Yas, I am guessing Yas will get close to 4/80. There aren't many 3B options and we don't have other options unless we role the dice on Shaw (which I really realy don't want to do). Pomeranz and Lyles would be nice to have back at the right price but I wouldn't go a lot higher then the aforementioned prices. I really think we need a true and tried top of the rotation arm. I like Kuechel better than Odirizzi, Wheeler, and maybe MadBum because I don't think he is as dependent on velocity. Also Kuechel is a better lock to go 6+ in his starts, to me that consistency and ability to save the bullpen is worth a bit extra. Avila adds a nice left handed bat that can complement Pina and pinch hit occasionally. I really like the idea of getting a wild card like Alex Wood but didn't put him on there because his market could have a large gap based on health.

Trade
Ryan Braun, Orlando Arcia, and a throw in prospect for Andrelton Simmons
Ray Black for 1B Kevin Cron
Ok, I doubt this actually happens but I am so done with Arcia swinging at a slider 2 feet outside. Braun and Simmons are on the last year of similar deals. The Angels might jump at extra years of a young player and Trout protection bat, Braun may be ok with a move back home. In reality I doubt the Angels want another older oft injured former perennial all star and a SS who can't hit for one of the top SS in the league.
The Cron for Black deal is interesting because we seemingly have an excess of pen arms with Knebel coming back and possibly bringing Pom back. Cron is a high potential bat (39 HR's in 84 gms) but is defensively limited and really wasn't give a shot in Arizona.

My offseason gives us a team like this
1)Grisham RF (move Yeli to LF) 2) CF Cain 3)LF Yeli 4)2B Huira 5)3B Moose 6)1B Thames 7)SS Simmons 8)C Pina
Bench)Avila, Gamel, Spangenberg, Cron

Rotation- Kuechel, Woodruff, Davies, Lyles, competition with Suter, Houser, and maybe Burnes (big maybe)
Pen- CL Knebel, Hader, Pom, Peralta, Claudio, Jackson, Guerra, Suter/Houser

That looks pretty sweet to me

[gopackgo87]

So I estimate we will have around 54 million in commitments to players under contract and between 25-35 million in pre-arb/arb players depending on who gets cut, as well as Thames option. So here is my plan.

1) Cut=Anderson, Shaw, Perez, Nelson, Tyler Austin, Tyrone Taylor, Taylor Williams

Anderson is due 8.5 million and at best is a 5th starter not worth that. Shaw, Nelson, and Perez won't be worth their projected arb values. While the last three are just 40 man casualties.

Pick up Thames option and extend and re-work Yeli's deal. Thames is a borderline decision but I think he brings a good amount of leadership/chemistry that would make me pick up his option unless better option comes along (trade or cheap free agent). I've been hoping we could maybe extend Yeli 2 or 3 years at roughly 30 million a year and then spread that amount out over the 3 years of control and then the 2 or 3 extra years. For math calculations I won't include this but I think it would be a good thing to check in with Yeli's agents.

Judging on those moves we would have around 50 million without extra revenue from the MLB tv deals.

Free Agents
Re-Sign=Moose 2/26 with a team option for year 3, Pomeranz 2/10, Lyles 1yr 7 with a larger year 2 team option.
Free Agents= Dallas Kuechel 3/60, Alex Avila 1/3, 1B

I doubt we are able to keep both Moose and Yas, I am guessing Yas will get close to 4/80. There aren't many 3B options and we don't have other options unless we role the dice on Shaw (which I really realy don't want to do). Pomeranz and Lyles would be nice to have back at the right price but I wouldn't go a lot higher then the aforementioned prices. I really think we need a true and tried top of the rotation arm. I like Kuechel better than Odirizzi, Wheeler, and maybe MadBum because I don't think he is as dependent on velocity. Also Kuechel is a better lock to go 6+ in his starts, to me that consistency and ability to save the bullpen is worth a bit extra. Avila adds a nice left handed bat that can complement Pina and pinch hit occasionally. I really like the idea of getting a wild card like Alex Wood but didn't put him on there because his market could have a large gap based on health.

Trade
Ryan Braun, Orlando Arcia, and a throw in prospect for Andrelton Simmons
Ray Black for 1B Kevin Cron
Ok, I doubt this actually happens but I am so done with Arcia swinging at a slider 2 feet outside. Braun and Simmons are on the last year of similar deals. The Angels might jump at extra years of a young player and Trout protection bat, Braun may be ok with a move back home. In reality I doubt the Angels want another older oft injured former perennial all star and a SS who can't hit for one of the top SS in the league.
The Cron for Black deal is interesting because we seemingly have an excess of pen arms with Knebel coming back and possibly bringing Pom back. Cron is a high potential bat (39 HR's in 84 gms) but is defensively limited and really wasn't give a shot in Arizona.

My offseason gives us a team like this
1)Grisham RF (move Yeli to LF) 2) CF Cain 3)LF Yeli 4)2B Huira 5)3B Moose 6)1B Thames 7)SS Simmons 8)C Pina
Bench)Avila, Gamel, Spangenberg, Cron

Rotation- Kuechel, Woodruff, Davies, Lyles, competition with Suter, Houser, and maybe Burnes (big maybe)
Pen- CL Knebel, Hader, Pom, Peralta, Claudio, Jackson, Guerra, Suter/Houser

That looks pretty sweet to me

The Brewers need a young Ben Zobrist type that hits .280 and gets on base. Enough of these HP types that while versatile aren't great defensively at more than 1 position and hit .240 with a sub .300 OBP. I do like an upgrade at SS but I don't see those trades happening but Cron in MP would be a power bat and could be nice platoon with ET. I actually like Tyrone Taylor but the rest I wouldn't mind. TT when healthy has hit in the minors for two straight years with some pop and speed. Give him a shot as a 4th OF. Cain is great but he is slowing down and not sure he can play 150 games anymore. Gamel is meh in CF.

I too was wondering if Braun would have some value now. Had a nice 2019 and while banged up going to the AL with DH option could be way to stay healthier.

Also, Houser is probably the second most talented SP on the roster right now. His stuff plays, 4-pitch arsenal. He is a lock in the rotation.

[jay87shot]

It would be great to find a Zobrist clone but those guys are tough to find. Brock Holt might not be a bad option but I doubt he leaves Boston.

Houser was one of the top guys last year but I wouldn't put him over Lyles or Davies. In my previous situation I would think he would beat out Suter especially with how good Suter was in the pen at the end of the year.

How much would someone project Didi Gregorius to get. He wasn't great last year and hasn't had an amazing career but I would look at him for 3/4 year and around 15 million a year.

[gopackgo87]

It would be great to find a Zobrist clone but those guys are tough to find. Brock Holt might not be a bad option but I doubt he leaves Boston.

Houser was one of the top guys last year but I wouldn't put him over Lyles or Davies. In my previous situation I would think he would beat out Suter especially with how good Suter was in the pen at the end of the year.

How much would someone project Didi Gregorius to get. He wasn't great last year and hasn't had an amazing career but I would look at him for 3/4 year and around 15 million a year.

Give me Iglesias from CIN over Gregorius for the money. Houser has better stuff and is just learning how to pitch. He has muich higher upside than Davies. Sign Odorizzi to be the No. 2 behind Woodruff and Houser as a No. 3 is nice.

[crewfan13]

It would be great to find a Zobrist clone but those guys are tough to find. Brock Holt might not be a bad option but I doubt he leaves Boston.

Houser was one of the top guys last year but I wouldn't put him over Lyles or Davies. In my previous situation I would think he would beat out Suter especially with how good Suter was in the pen at the end of the year.

How much would someone project Didi Gregorius to get. He wasn't great last year and hasn't had an amazing career but I would look at him for 3/4 year and around 15 million a year.

Problem with finding a zobrist clone is usually budget. We have holes to fill at real positions and have a limited budget. So spending that on a utility guy who starts all over is tough. That's alot easier to do when you're a larger market and have extra money. Only way for us to really have that type is to develop it from within and right now, we don't have that.

Brock holt is sort of that guy. He's said he wants to remain a red Sox for his career, so who knows if he leaves. But evenif he does, can we afford to pay him over say a starting pitcher or a catcher?

[crewfan13]

Give me Iglesias from CIN over Gregorius for the money. Houser has better stuff and is just learning how to pitch. He has muich higher upside than Davies. Sign Odorizzi to be the No. 2 behind Woodruff and Houser as a No. 3 is nice.

Odoruzzi's peripherals were good last year, but for whatever reason I'm not a huge fan of his.

[gopackgo87]

Odoruzzi's peripherals were good last year, but for whatever reason I'm not a huge fan of his.

I guess I am but I am worried he gets more than he deserves. I'd be hesitant to give him a 15 per over 4 years for sure.

As for the versatile type, the Brewers have plenty of money to spend. There is very little on the catcher market if they aren't going to give a competitive offer to Yaz which would be 4-8 probably too rich. So I hope they get an Iglesias and bring Moose back for say 2-24 or so. Bring in a Wellington Castillo or Avila or Yan Gomes (not preferred) but someone to split time Pina which would be a major positional decline in production. So might need to overpay someone. Maybe bring in a Wood on a prove-it deal. Need to upgrade rotation.

[crewfan13]

I guess I am but I am worried he gets more than he deserves. I'd be hesitant to give him a 15 per over 4 years for sure.

As for the versatile type, the Brewers have plenty of money to spend. There is very little on the catcher market if they aren't going to give a competitive offer to Yaz which would be 4-8 probably too rich. So I hope they get an Iglesias and bring Moose back for say 2-24 or so. Bring in a Wellington Castillo or Avila or Yan Gomes (not preferred) but someone to split time Pina which would be a major positional decline in production. So might need to overpay someone. Maybe bring in a Wood on a prove-it deal. Need to upgrade rotation.

But that's kind of the point. We need to bring back or upgrade catcher, 3rd, SS and some sort of pitching, probably a starter but maybe another pen peice.

So while we have money to spend. I'd rather spend it at those spots as opposed to saving a little money at all those spots to bring in a guy who can defensive sub for hiura, and backup thames and Moose while getting 3-4 starts per week.

So yea, that guy would be awesome to have, especially if he's a righty. You could double switch hiura out in the 7th to 9th of games you're winning. You could spell thames against most lefties and give Moose a day off a week or so. That would be great to have. But if that guy costs say $5-7 mill per year, I'd rather spend that additonal $5-7 per year elsewhere. Like instead of spending $7 mill per year on a startung pitcher, try to upgrade further and get a guy worth $12-15 mill per year instead.

[gopackgo87]

But that's kind of the point. We need to bring back or upgrade catcher, 3rd, SS and some sort of pitching, probably a starter but maybe another pen peice.

So while we have money to spend. I'd rather spend it at those spots as opposed to saving a little money at all those spots to bring in a guy who can defensive sub for hiura, and backup thames and Moose while getting 3-4 starts per week.

So yea, that guy would be awesome to have, especially if he's a righty. You could double switch hiura out in the 7th to 9th of games you're winning. You could spell thames against most lefties and give Moose a day off a week or so. That would be great to have. But if that guy costs say $5-7 mill per year, I'd rather spend that additonal $5-7 per year elsewhere. Like instead of spending $7 mill per year on a startung pitcher, try to upgrade further and get a guy worth $12-15 mill per year instead.

I get what you are saying but there are some positions you overpay for and others you don't. A SP to pair with Woodruff at top of rotation would be huge. We see how important this is with who is left in playoffs. Catcher is nice but a bonus to have a great guy offensively. A guy like Zobrist mold is huge with injuries. You don't need elite but can't have guys like HP who are useless offensively when injuries hit. Such a dropoff.

If Moose, upgrade with Odorizzi and flyers for rotation, Iglesias at SS, you basically can get a utility guy for utility for 5 mill. That would be roughly 40 mill. Go big and get Will Smith too. Strengthen pen...Brewers have 50 mill to spend so if utility is the spot you dont need to fill I agree it would just be a bonus and isn't the main thing to have. But I do think way injuries hit crew if you had a nice guy in that mold rather than HP and Spangy it would be a huge boost. But it is something you could trade for at deadline or something too. I trust stearns but this will be a challenging offseason to solve all the things Brewers need to solve the way their system is rn. Not much help on the way from AAA.

[jay87shot]

i like Odirizzi but I think he is closer to the bottom of the second tier of starters on the market so there are 3-4 guys I would rather have for a bit more money like Kuechel. I don't like Igelies as more that a utility guy. I live in Michigan and watched him a lot with the Tigers and he just doesn't walk. He would be a slight upgrade over Arcia but not much, I'd rather have Galvis at least he has some power. Anyone have a good young player who is blocked that we could get fairly cheaply, Franklin Barreto comes to mind.

[gopackgo87]

i like Odirizzi but I think he is closer to the bottom of the second tier of starters on the market so there are 3-4 guys I would rather have for a bit more money like Kuechel. I don't like Igelies as more that a utility guy. I live in Michigan and watched him a lot with the Tigers and he just doesn't walk. He would be a slight upgrade over Arcia but not much, I'd rather have Galvis at least he has some power. Anyone have a good young player who is blocked that we could get fairly cheaply, Franklin Barreto comes to mind.

If they can get Kuechel for 18 million per for 3 years I would do that over 5-75 or whatever Odorizzi will command. Iglesias is a contact guy which I like. I agree his lack of walks is troublesome, but he is about as good as Arcia defensively and is a career .273 hitter. So either way he will have much higher OBP than Arcia hitting 50 points higher. Galvis? He sucks. He is a career sub-.300 OBP. He hit .260 this year and didn't have a .300 OBP, so he clearly doesn't walk either. Iglesias is a better all-around player than Galvis.

[jay87shot]

Iglesias and Galvis are basically the same player there ops., WAR, most advanced stats are close to the same. I just was making the point the point that Galvis has more power so if it is a coin toss I'd rather take him.

I am kind of liking the idea of Franklin Barreto, would something like Gamel and mid-tier prospect say Peyton Henry get it done or would they still basically value him like a top 100 prospect and want 1 experienced arm say Zach Davies.

[jay87shot]

Brewers decline Thames option and trade Anderson to Toronto for a power potential AA prospect.

I am a little surprised on Thames but it sounds like the team is going to try and sign him to a cheaper deal or a comparable 1B at a lower rate. I think this can be a good pass on Thames, there is a long list of 1B options but none other than Jose Abreu are much better than Thames. I could see maybe a guy like Justin Smoak being a lower cost option and then resigning Grandal to platoon at 1st kind of like the end of last year.

I am very happy we were able to get something for Anderson, I was pretty sure we would just have to cut him loose and swallow the option price. The prospect doesn't sound like much but it sounds like he has great power potential.

[jay87shot]

What would you all think about Rich Hill, clearly at 40 he likely won't pitch 200 innings or make 30 starts but he is still very effective. I kind of like the idea of getting a top of the rotation arm and a 2nd higher potential 2nd starter who has issues like Hill, Alex Wood, or maybe Michael Wacha or even Rick Porcello (if the last 2 are cheap enough). Hill and/or Wood could even be interesting multiple inning relievers if need be.