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  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    Betts transforms this team into a contender easily in 2020. If Betts does leave, the long term repercussions are minimal Conforto and Diaz are the main pieces.

    RF-Nimmo (L)
    CF-Betts (R)
    3B-McNeil (L)
    1B-Alonso (R)
    LF-Davis (R)
    2B-Cano (L)
    C-Ramos (R)
    SS-Rosario (R)

    Thatís a dangerous lineup.

    Jed Lowrie and Wilson Ramos will be off the books so thatís another $20m unless the pick up Wilsonís option.

    Syndergaard will probably be roughly $18m in his 4th last year of arbitration (if the Mets havenít extended him by then).

    Conforto would have cost around $15m as well but he would be included in the deal.

    Matz youíd figure would be around $8m in his last year of arbitration.

    McNeil, Davis, and Alonso will all still be pre-arb.

    Lineup

    C-Vacant
    1B-Alonso (pre-arb)
    2B-Cano ($20.25m
    SS-Rosario (arb 1 - likely $4m)
    3B-McNeil (pre-arb)
    LF-Davis (pre-arb)
    CF-Vacant
    RF-Nimmo (arb 2 - likely $7m)

    Bench: Vacant

    Rotation

    SP#1-deGrom ($36m in 2021, but $21.8m AAV)
    SP#2-Syndergaard (arb 4 - likely $18m)
    SP#3-Matz (arb 3 - likely 8m)
    SP#4-Vacant
    SP#5-Vacant

    Bullpen

    CL-Lugo (arb 2 - likely $10m)
    RP-Vacant
    RP-Vacant
    RP-Vacant
    RP-Vacant
    RP-Vacant
    RP-Vacant

    So that totals $89m projected with the players on the roster. Add in 40 man roster and player benefits and that total increases to $106.8m, which is $103.2m under the CB tax threshold.

    Lets say we give Betts a contract with $30m AAV (replaces Cespedesí contract), then weíll be $73.2m under the threshold for 2021 with bullpen and bench players making up 11 of the 14 vacant spots on the roster. The Mets can afford him and should be willing to commit to him long term since heís under the age of 30 and an elite player.
    What is the point in that if you let Betts walk? Conforto and Diaz can provide you 5-6 WAR next year and they still have 3 combined years of team control on those guys. Betts is not the 10 WAR player he was in 2018. He's a 7 WAR guy which is great but not much of an upgrade, especially for one year. If those are the pieces you give up, you better ink him long term.

    You can't calculate payroll with 14 vacant spots on your roster. All of those guys aren't replaced with rookie minimum or pre-arbitration types and if we're at 107 million on 11 ML roster spots, expect them to come close to the luxury tax threshold trying to fill out a 40 man. We're already close next year at 180 million dollars or so and that's without Wheeler.

    I appreciate the work you've done but until the Wilpons show they are willing to ink a player in his prime to a 200+ million dollar deal, I don't buy they will. I'm not trading for one year of Betts unless they make a conscious effort to improve the roster around him and they are only about 25 million dollars or so under the luxury tax. Let's not forget Bett's last arbitration year will be more expensive than what Conforto and Diaz cost you next year which further inhibits their ability to make the roster better around him.
    Last edited by metswon69; 10-20-2019 at 06:17 PM.

  2. #152
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    NY Mets offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    What is the point in that if you let Betts walk? Conforto and Diaz can provide you 5-6 WAR next year and they still have 3 combined years of team control on those guys. Betts is not the 10 WAR player he was in 2018. He's a 7 WAR guy which is great but not much of an upgrade, especially for one year. If those are the pieces you give up, you better ink him long term.

    You can't calculate payroll with 14 vacant spots on your roster. All of those guys aren't replaced with rookie minimum or pre-arbitration types and if we're at 107 million on 11 ML roster spots, expect them to come close to the luxury tax threshold trying to fill out a 40 man. We're already close next year at 180 million dollars or so and that's without Wheeler.

    I appreciate the work you've done but until the Wilpons show they are willing to ink a player in his prime to a 200+ million dollar deal, I don't buy they will. I'm not trading for one year of Betts unless they make a conscious effort to improve the roster around him and they are only about 25 million dollars or so under the luxury tax. Let's not forget Bett's last arbitration year will be more expensive than what Conforto and Diaz cost you next year which further inhibits their ability to make the roster better around him.
    The point is that you get a guy who makes you better in 2020 and fits the team perfectly with minimal long term repercussions. How do you know Betts doesnít have another 10 WAR season in him? (Especially the year before FA) You are right though that Conforto and Diaz will cost roughly $17m while Betts around $27m, so that is a valid point.

    You arenít going to spend a ton of money on the bench, so figure $15m tops for 5 guys.

    I would assume that 3 guys or so would be pre-arb types in the bullpen while the other 3 guys would be FA so figure $30m total.

    So all of a sudden they would be at $152m with 22 spots filled. I could see the last two spots of the rotation being a guy like David Peterson and maybe a FA starter worth $10m. Perhaps they pick up the option on Ramos too so ~$20m total for those 2 guys.

    Payroll would be ~$172m which would be $38m under the luxury tax so further additions of higher quality could certainly be made to increase that figure. The Mets can definitely afford Betts.

  3. #153
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    My issue is not that Conforto and Diaz for Betts is a bad deal, it's the virtual guarantee that we can't afford Betts after his one year. Meaning we will lose Conforto AND Betts after 2020.

    Why even bother? Is Betts that much better than Conforto and an improved Diaz in 2020?

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    The point is that you get a guy who makes you better in 2020 and fits the team perfectly with minimal long term repercussions. How do you know Betts doesnít have another 10 WAR season in him? (Especially the year before FA) You are right though that Conforto and Diaz will cost roughly $17m while Betts around $27m, so that is a valid point.

    You arenít going to spend a ton of money on the bench, so figure $15m tops for 5 guys.

    I would assume that 3 guys or so would be pre-arb types in the bullpen while the other 3 guys would be FA so figure $30m total.

    So all of a sudden they would be at $152m with 22 spots filled. I could see the last two spots of the rotation being a guy like David Peterson and maybe a FA starter worth $10m. Perhaps they pick up the option on Ramos too so ~$20m total for those 2 guys.

    Payroll would be ~$172m which would be $38m under the luxury tax so further additions of higher quality could certainly be made to increase that figure. The Mets can definitely afford Betts.
    Its one of those "One of these things is not like the other" and Bett's 2018 was exactly that. Normally he's closer to a 5-6 WAR type. Still very respectable but 10 WAR is a special season and only one guy can do it perennially (Mike Trout).

    You forgot the other 15 guys on the 40 man roster as well. And that's assuming the Mets don't spend more on a 5th SP, re-sign Stroman, don't make a push for Realmuto, etc. Again not all these guys are going to be league minimums. You would have to assume the Mets bring in some veteran RP and maybe even a SP who is making decent money.

    Its not a matter of affording him. Its a matter of commitment and how close the Wilpons are willing to get to the luxury tax. There's a team threshold here we don't know of. Maybe they can come close and even if they can, it becomes about giving Betts 7-8 years at 30+million dollars a season. If he does have another 10 WAR season, that just jumps his asking price as well.
    Last edited by metswon69; 10-20-2019 at 10:42 PM.

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeGamer81 View Post
    My issue is not that Conforto and Diaz for Betts is a bad deal, it's the virtual guarantee that we can't afford Betts after his one year. Meaning we will lose Conforto AND Betts after 2020.

    Why even bother? Is Betts that much better than Conforto and an improved Diaz in 2020?
    Most likely not. Conforto is going to give you close to 4 WAR and Diaz in an improved year probably gives you close to 1.5-2 WAR.

    If you're getting the Betts from 2018, great, but the odds are he's not duplicating that performance. He's probably closer to a 7, maybe 8 WAR type and his resume says less on average. Its not that much of an upgrade, especially considering Bett's defense has taken a hit.
    Last edited by metswon69; 10-20-2019 at 11:22 PM.

  6. #156
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    NY Mets offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeGamer81 View Post
    My issue is not that Conforto and Diaz for Betts is a bad deal, it's the virtual guarantee that we can't afford Betts after his one year. Meaning we will lose Conforto AND Betts after 2020.

    Why even bother? Is Betts that much better than Conforto and an improved Diaz in 2020?
    Conforto is probably gone after 2021 anyway.

    Even though I believe Diaz will improve, thatís no guarantee either. Heíll be getting more expensive too so his performance will need to start improving to make the years of control worth it.

    Right now our OF alignment is LF-Davis, CF-Nimmo, RF-Conforto. Thatís a horrible defensive outfield. Betts is an elite RF defender, but heís also more than capable of playing above average defense in CF which would push Nimmo to RF where heíll be a much better defender.

    Betts gives us much more speed, the same power as Conforto, and is a much more consistent player who makes contact and gets on base so frequently. Heíd be a huge addition.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Its one of those "One of these things is not like the other" and Bett's 2018 was exactly that. Normally he's closer to a 5-6 WAR type. Still very respectable but 10 WAR is a special season and only one guy can do it perennially (Mike Trout).

    You forgot the other 15 guys on the 40 man roster as well. And that's assuming the Mets don't spend more on a 5th SP, re-sign Stroman, don't make a push for Realmuto, etc. Again not all these guys are going to be league minimums. You would have to assume the Mets bring in some veteran RP and maybe even a SP who is making decent money.

    Its not a matter of affording him. Its a matter of commitment and how close the Wilpons are willing to get to the luxury tax. There's a team threshold here we don't know of. Maybe they can come close and even if they can, it becomes about giving Betts 7-8 years at 30+million dollars a season. If he does have another 10 WAR season, that just jumps his asking price as well.
    Since 2016, Betts has posted 8.3, 5.6, 10.4, and 6.6 WAR. Thatís an average of 7.7 WAR so Iím not sure why you are saying heís a 5-6 WAR guy.

    And no I didnít forget the other 15 guys on the 40 man roster (total $2.25m) or the estimated player benefits (total $15.5m) that are included in my payroll total in my original post and my last post.

    The Mets were willing to pay Cespedes $30m/year and he is a much inferior player to Betts. Since his contract will be off the books, it seems logical to replace him with a guy who will be in his age 27 season and sign him for 10 years $300m+.

    Once Betts is signed, they can worry about the rest and where the pieces may land. True superstars like Betts are almost impossible to find.

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    Since 2016, Betts has posted 8.3, 5.6, 10.4, and 6.6 WAR. Thatís an average of 7.7 WAR so Iím not sure why you are saying heís a 5-6 WAR guy.

    And no I didnít forget the other 15 guys on the 40 man roster (total $2.25m) or the estimated player benefits (total $15.5m) that are included in my payroll total in my original post and my last post.

    The Mets were willing to pay Cespedes $30m/year and he is a much inferior player to Betts. Since his contract will be off the books, it seems logical to replace him with a guy who will be in his age 27 season and sign him for 10 years $300m+.

    Once Betts is signed, they can worry about the rest and where the pieces may land. True superstars like Betts are almost impossible to find.
    Because his most recent sample sizes suggest he's couched in that area. Do you know how many guys have had 10 WAR seasons in history of MLB? The answer is not many. Its a statistical anomaly that even the best players in baseball don't do very often. Even if we want to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's a 7.5 WAR player, how much of an upgrade is that over a consistent Conforto and a rebounding Diaz? Not much.

    Ok so you have the money for the bench and for the remaining 15 players on the 40 man roster. What happens to the SP, RP and if they want other position players? If they re-sign Stroman, he's going to cost quite a bit. If they sign Realmuto, you're talking about 20+ million a year (probably more) and the bullpen is not going to be strictly vets or rookies on league minimum deals.

    Sure it's logical, although there is regression analysis that suggests smaller players don't age as well too. That said, if he gets what you are suggesting, what makes you think the Wilpons are signing him? Not with this ownership. They'll justify it with Harper and Machado under performing, not understanding that market valuations make those deals part in parcel with everything that is happening in baseball economically.

    I'm not disagreeing with you in terms of signing him though.
    Last edited by metswon69; 10-21-2019 at 03:50 PM.

  9. #159
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    NY Mets offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Because his most recent sample sizes suggest he's couched in that area. Do you know how many guys have had 10 WAR seasons in history of MLB? The answer is not many. Its a statistical anomaly that even the best players in baseball don't do very often. Even if we want to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's a 7.5 WAR player, how much of an upgrade is that over a consistent Conforto and a rebounding Diaz? Not much.

    Ok so you have the money for the bench and for the remaining 15 players on the 40 man roster. What happens to the SP and RP? If they re-sign Stroman, he's going to cost quite a bit. If they sign Realmuto, you're talking about 20+ million a year (probably more) and the bullpen is not going to be strictly vets or rookies on league minimum deals.

    Sure it's logical, although there is regression analysis that suggests smaller players don't age as well too. That said, if he gets what you are suggesting, what makes you think the Wilpons are signing him? Not with this ownership. They'll justify it with Harper and Machado under performing, not understanding that market valuations make those deals part in parcel with everything that is happening in baseball economically.

    I'm not disagreeing with you in terms of signing him though.
    7.5 WAR would be a significant difference for this team and could be the difference between making the playoffs and winning the World Series, or missing the playoffs and having no shot again. McNeil at 3B looks like a 5-6+ WAR guy. Having these 2 and Alonso makes the Mets very dangerous.

    You keep assuming Diaz will rebound when thatís no guarantee whatsoever. There is a possibility that he canít pitch in NYC or his ability just isnít good anymore.

    Youíre also making a lot of assumptions about signing FAs like Realmuto and Stroman (which can be possible still). I allocated $65m for catcher, 2 SP spots, 5 bench spots, and 6 BP spots. Half or more of those will be pre-arb guys and not much money would be spent there.

    Our luxury tax payroll would be ~$172m so the on-field payroll would be ~$155m in that case. Our opening day payroll in 2019 was $159m.

  10. #160
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    IMO Conforto is a prime extension candidate. If heís not interested in a long term deal, then you consider trading him for Betts.


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  11. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    7.5 WAR would be a significant difference for this team and could be the difference between making the playoffs and winning the World Series, or missing the playoffs and having no shot again. McNeil at 3B looks like a 5-6+ WAR guy. Having these 2 and Alonso makes the Mets very dangerous.

    You keep assuming Diaz will rebound when thatís no guarantee whatsoever. There is a possibility that he canít pitch in NYC or his ability just isnít good anymore.

    Youíre also making a lot of assumptions about signing FAs like Realmuto and Stroman (which can be possible still). I allocated $65m for catcher, 2 SP spots, 5 bench spots, and 6 BP spots. Half or more of those will be pre-arb guys and not much money would be spent there.

    Our luxury tax payroll would be ~$172m so the on-field payroll would be ~$155m in that case. Our opening day payroll in 2019 was $159m.
    Not if Conforto and Diaz can give you 5.5-6 WAR between them.

    I assume Diaz will rebound because his pitchability and arm talent suggest he's a much better RP than he was in 2019. Not to mention there might be some change in the balls with MLB acknowledging as much. I am because i know the Mets aren't going to go with pre-arb and rookie minimum guys like you are suggesting through a significant portion of their pitching staff and possibly on their starting roster. We know the Mets are better with 2nd and 3rd tier talent acquisitions because its costs significantly less than a Mookie Betts and you have a GM who likes to make moves.

    Let's see them do it. I don't buy they will.
    Last edited by metswon69; 10-21-2019 at 10:24 PM.

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Not if Conforto and Diaz can give you 5.5-6 WAR between them.

    I assume Diaz will rebound because his pitchability and arm talent suggest he's a much better RP than he was in 2019. Not to mention there might be some change in the balls with MLB acknowledging as much. I am because i know the Mets aren't going to go with pre-arb and rookie minimum guys like you are suggesting through a significant portion of their pitching staff and possibly on their starting roster. We know the Mets are better with 2nd and 3rd tier talent acquisitions because its costs significantly less than a Mookie Betts and you have a GM who likes to make moves.

    Let's see them do it. I don't buy they will.
    Diaz, Nimmo, Lugo, Gsellman, Rosario, Broxton, McNeil, Davis, Smith, Nido, Guillorme, and Alonso were all pre-arb guys in 2019. Thatís 12 guys.

    I know our system isnít amazing, but why is it hard to believe that we can have pre-arb guys rounding out the roster in 2021? Is $65-75m not enough for 5 bench spots, 6 pen arms, #4 and #5 spots in the rotation, and catcher?

    Youíre not going sign FAs for each of those spots. Thatís totally unrealistic.

  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    Diaz, Nimmo, Lugo, Gsellman, Rosario, Broxton, McNeil, Davis, Smith, Nido, Guillorme, and Alonso were all pre-arb guys in 2019. Thatís 12 guys.

    I know our system isnít amazing, but why is it hard to believe that we can have pre-arb guys rounding out the roster in 2021? Is $65-75m not enough for 5 bench spots, 6 pen arms, #4 and #5 spots in the rotation, and catcher?

    Youíre not going sign FAs for each of those spots. Thatís totally unrealistic.
    No but you might add salary in trade, much like the Mets have done with Cano, Stroman, etc. It depends on who that 4th SP is, how many quality RP they look to add and what they do at catcher. You could easily come up with 60 million dollars just on Stroman, Realmuto, and 2 quality RP.

  14. #164
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    Here's another way to look at this.

    The Mets have 1 or 2 years left in this window to win a title with their core starting pitching. To extend that window they will have to spend FA money or trade some of their young talent to get starting pitching.

    Brodie dealt 3 of their most valuable minor league assets in less than a year.

    So if you're going to go for it, now is the time. Does Betts for Conforto plus Diaz make great long-term sense? Not really. But there's not much of a long-term with this team. Around 2021 they're going to start selling like hell to restock.

    Don't worry. He's got this.

  15. #165
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    Mets Owners Gave Bill de Blasio $5,400 The Day Before He Quit His Presidential Campaign

    The very last donors to Mr. de Blasioís presidential campaign were executives in Sterling Equities, including Richard Wilpon and Saul Katz, the president of the New York Mets, and several people connected to them.

    ...But while the filings showed a total of $5,400 given via two separate entities on Sept. 19, the mayoral request came back in April. They simply did not get around to formally giving the contributions until September. If they had waited one more day, they might have saved their money.

    Of course, the Mets management is not known for timing the market.
    I don't know what is funnier the last line or Dick Wilpon.

    https://deadspin.com/mets-owners-gav...e-h-1839229565


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

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