The Offseason Lounge

[Kenny Powders]

MLB has them at 10. This guy has them at 13. . Fangraphs has them all the way down at 25.

Please show me something else. When I think of good farms I'm looking at the Marlins, Padres, Rays, and Dodgers. I think in all of the aforementioned links they are top 5. Who in the Jays farm system is ready to make the leap? Pearson ok. The Jays have an above average farm system right now. I said in the offseason let's see how good the farm is without Vlad. It sucks that Bichette is no longer factored into these rankings but I would like to know who else is a coming up?

Problem is the young supporting positional players (I'm looking at Grichuk, Drury, Mckinney, Hernandez) are absolute garbage that we may have to wait for the next wave of positional players to come through - and how long is that going to be? The Jays have Gurriel so maybe they can pickup a Sogard and Galvis again? No one else is knocking on the door in the farm next season other than Pearson. I hope some quality pitching arrives pretty quickly because when you look at the offense of the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, even Twins you realize the Jays have a ways to go to reach that tier.

Edit: Looked at MLB's ranking and if Bichette is graduated they only have Pearson and Groshans (#73) as the only two prospects in the top 100!!

I'm pretty sure B.A. has them at six

[Kenny Powders]

And this is why the failure by Shatkins to cash in on the MLB assets is trades is so devastating to the rebuild.

Nah, we really only had one asset that they missed the boat by not trading in JD.

It's not their fault that the majority of the assets were overpaid, underperforming, old or a combination of the three. AA never constructed this team with longevity in mind

[R. Johnson#3]

Nah, we really only had one asset that they missed the boat by not trading in JD.

It's not their fault that the majority of the assets were overpaid, underperforming, old or a combination of the three. AA never constructed this team with longevity in mind

Shhhhh, you're not supposed to point out the obvious. It's only been 4 years of denial that's been put into it. Now get ready to hear some generalities like "baseball moves" to show you why you're wrong.

[Kenny Powders]

I can't see the Yankees not picking up the $20M option on EE for next season. Here's a crazy potential scenario......what if Atkins and Shapiro aren't kidding and they have been saving up for this moment? What if they let their money do the talking this off season and do the following:


1) Sign JD to a 3 year/65M dollar front loaded deal (25-25-20)
2) Sign Zach Wheeler to a 4 year/80M dollar front loaded deal (25-25-15-15)
3) Sign Jake Odorizzi to a 3 year/50M dollar front loaded deal (20-15-15)
4) Sign Dallas Keuchel to a 3 year/65M dollar front loaded deal (25-25-15)
5) Sign Will Smith to a 3 year/35M dollar front loaded deal (15-10-10)

Yes, I realize that is 110M in FA's, but they have the money to spend (so they say) and those are 5 guys that fit major needs on this team moving forward. None of them should be able to command a 5+ year contract in this new market, so they are guys I think they could be at least feasible. (although very unlikely)..

Lineup:

Bichette- SS
Biggio- 2B
Donaldson- 3B
Vladdy- RF
Gurriel- LF
Tellez- 1B
Hernandez- DH
Grichuk- CF
Jansen- C

Bench- McKinney, McGuire, Valera


Rotation: Keuchel, Odorizzi, Wheeler, Shoemaker, Pearson

Bullpen: Giles, Smith, Law, Boshers, Shafer, Pannone, Bergen, Baker

After they sign JD to bring him back where he belongs, break the news to Vladdy that after he gets in shape that he will be needing his OF glove again. If they have signed a player like JD I am sure he will understand.

3 year deals are ideal for them this off season imo because that will give them stability for the next 3 seasons while the kids are maturing on rookie deals. Then when they are ready to start making some serious money all those big contracts will be coming off the books and getting replaced by cheap in house guys like Groshans, SWR, Manoah and Pardinho.

I like this idea except for JD. Vlad seems to be committed to third base and I think it's best to wait and see if he commits to getting in better shape for next season. If he comes to spring training as a fatty, then it's time to explore third base options. I believe he will be a first baseman in the future but if he is going to be the face of the franchise then I think they should appease him for a bit.

[Kenny Powders]

Shhhhh, you're not supposed to point out the obvious. It's only been 4 years of denial that's been put into it. Now get ready to hear some generalities like "baseball moves" to show you why you're wrong.

Yeah the industry doesn't really value older players any more, especially the over laid ones who don't play.

In hindsight moving of off Sanchez after '16 would have been ideal but no one seen this complete crash and burn coming

[FLeays]

Your first sentence is incorrect. They are in the top third of the league as far as farms go. When you consider that they just graduated two top ten specs and had something like 10 rookies on the roster this year, it’s looking pretty good. The Padres have been doing this for like 10 years. They should have a good farm.

Of the Padres current 8 prospects in the top 100 only 1 was drafted before the 2016 draft. Their strong farm was built from the 2017-2019 drafts not over the past 10 years.

[FLeays]

Nah, we really only had one asset that they missed the boat by not trading in JD.

It's not their fault that the majority of the assets were overpaid, underperforming, old or a combination of the three. AA never constructed this team with longevity in mind

So it's either this team was handcuffed by bad contracts (when Tulo or Martin were the two bad contracts left in 2017) or they gave up too many assets for a run at the WS (when only Thor might be of any value right now yet somehow they managed to hang onto Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna). At least EE, Estrada, Dickey, and Bautista weren't on the books - but guess what the Jays had Kendrys Morales for 3 years!!

So in the past 3 years who has this regime hit on in terms of trades or FA's? Happ who was traded for nothing? Wouldn't Urshela sure look nice if he were still in a Jays uniform?

If the Jays do in fact try to go out and acquire pitching through trades (as Atkins said they might do) then how different is that then what AA did when the Jays currently have only a decent farm with Bichette off the board? Pearson and Groshans are the only specs in the top 100 - the top farms have 4+ specs in the top 100. Do we know what the Jays acquired in all the trades made since 2016? It seems like there is a good share of misses here.

If they came out and said they were 3 years away, I'd buy that and find it unacceptable because all the Jays have been doing over the past 3 years was collecting assets and now with Bichette gone the Jays are without a top farm. My problem with this is: We were told we would have a perpetual farm that churns out prospects year after year yet with the likes of Biggio and Bichette in The Show we're having a hard time looking for the next big prospect beyond Pearson.

[500 Level]

MLB has them at 10. This guy has them at 13. . Fangraphs has them all the way down at 25.

Please show me something else. When I think of good farms I'm looking at the Marlins, Padres, Rays, and Dodgers. I think in all of the aforementioned links they are top 5. Who in the Jays farm system is ready to make the leap? Pearson ok. The Jays have an above average farm system right now. I said in the offseason let's see how good the farm is without Vlad. It sucks that Bichette is no longer factored into these rankings but I would like to know who else is a coming up?

Problem is the young supporting positional players (I'm looking at Grichuk, Drury, Mckinney, Hernandez) are absolute garbage that we may have to wait for the next wave of positional players to come through - and how long is that going to be? The Jays have Gurriel so maybe they can pickup a Sogard and Galvis again? No one else is knocking on the door in the farm next season other than Pearson. I hope some quality pitching arrives pretty quickly because when you look at the offense of the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, even Twins you realize the Jays have a ways to go to reach that tier.

Edit: Looked at MLB's ranking and if Bichette is graduated they only have Pearson and Groshans (#73) as the only two prospects in the top 100!!

If Kay keeps his prospect status he will be. SWR will be top 100. Pardinho and Manoah too. Come on man.

[R. Johnson#3]

So it's either this team was handcuffed by bad contracts (when Tulo or Martin were the two bad contracts left in 2017) or they gave up too many assets for a run at the WS (when only Thor might be of any value right now yet somehow they managed to hang onto Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna). At least EE, Estrada, Dickey, and Bautista weren't on the books - but guess what the Jays had Kendrys Morales for 3 years!!

So in the past 3 years who has this regime hit on in terms of trades or FA's? Happ who was traded for nothing? Wouldn't Urshela sure look nice if he were still in a Jays uniform?

If the Jays do in fact try to go out and acquire pitching through trades (as Atkins said they might do) then how different is that then what AA did when the Jays currently have only a decent farm with Bichette off the board? Pearson and Groshans are the only specs in the top 100 - the top farms have 4+ specs in the top 100. Do we know what the Jays acquired in all the trades made since 2016? It seems like there is a good share of misses here.

If they came out and said they were 3 years away, I'd buy that and find it unacceptable because all the Jays have been doing over the past 3 years was collecting assets and now with Bichette gone the Jays are without a top farm. My problem with this is: We were told we would have a perpetual farm that churns out prospects year after year yet with the likes of Biggio and Bichette in The Show we're having a hard time looking for the next big prospect beyond Pearson.

Everyone loves to bring up Atkins' track record on trades here as a negative which I don't understand. He's actually done pretty well considering he had no all stars to deal like Chapman, Miller or Beltran. Do people expect him to wave a magic wand and turn garbage players and/or prospects into gold?

He turned Drew Hutchison into immediate help (Liriano) plus McGuire then flipped Liriano for Teoscar in the midst of a terrible season. All in all, Drew Hutchison became Liriano, McGuire and Teoscar.

He capitalized on Dominic Leone's only successful season and turned him into Grichuk. Now I know Grichuk is nothing special but I'd much rather have him over Leone or Conner Greene.

Revere for Storen was a trade that made a lot of sense at the time and IIRC everyone here was for it. Storen ***** the bed so Atkins turns him into Joaquin Benoit.

Grilli for nothing.

Diaz for nothing then flipped to Thornton.

Osuna who was in the midst of a suspension and waiting to be charged for domestic violence for Ken Giles. I think this trade doesn't get the recognition it deserves. Atkins could've gotten fleeced so hard here but managed to get a top of the line closer in return.

Happ was a crap trade and the reluctancy to deal JD came back to bite him hard. We still need to wait and see on Stroman but as I've said before, that will be the trade that defines Atkins. I have high hopes for SWR.

Just because there's no big prospects ready to come up in 2020 besides Pearson doesn't mean they're done. 2021 could very well feature the likes of Groshans, SWR and Manoah. We have 2 solid catching prospects working their way up too.

[Kenny Powders]

So it's either this team was handcuffed by bad contracts (when Tulo or Martin were the two bad contracts left in 2017) or they gave up too many assets for a run at the WS (when only Thor might be of any value right now yet somehow they managed to hang onto Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna). At least EE, Estrada, Dickey, and Bautista weren't on the books - but guess what the Jays had Kendrys Morales for 3 years!!

So in the past 3 years who has this regime hit on in terms of trades or FA's? Happ who was traded for nothing? Wouldn't Urshela sure look nice if he were still in a Jays uniform?

If the Jays do in fact try to go out and acquire pitching through trades (as Atkins said they might do) then how different is that then what AA did when the Jays currently have only a decent farm with Bichette off the board? Pearson and Groshans are the only specs in the top 100 - the top farms have 4+ specs in the top 100. Do we know what the Jays acquired in all the trades made since 2016? It seems like there is a good share of misses here.

If they came out and said they were 3 years away, I'd buy that and find it unacceptable because all the Jays have been doing over the past 3 years was collecting assets and now with Bichette gone the Jays are without a top farm. My problem with this is: We were told we would have a perpetual farm that churns out prospects year after year yet with the likes of Biggio and Bichette in The Show we're having a hard time looking for the next big prospect beyond Pearson.

They've actually won quite a few of their trades. It's just that outside of the three guys you mentioned they only had highly priced, older (or both) players to trade. They also didn't have a farm system to trade from to try and bolster the big league team


Sure, trading Sanchez at the end of sixteen would have been ideal but he was what, 25 at the time? I think we can all agree gutting the team at the end of '15 or '16 but I think it's highly likely that ownership told them contend.

It probably isn't that much different then what AA did but let's hope they don't send Pearson out for a knuckleballer.

If Pearson doesn't get the call before the draft next year it is quite possible that we will have 4 top 100 guys (Pearson, Groshans, SWR and the #5 pick) with three potentially being in the top 25-50. Then there's guys like Kloffenstein, Hiraldo, Kirk, Martinez, Moreno, Pardinho. It's not as sexy as the Padres ( who's top specs all seem to be top 5 picks) but we are in better shape then a lot of teams.

I mean, I think we have been pretty decent at churning out talent, we've graduated Biggio, Vlad, Bichette and Jansen in the last two years. Next year Pearson will be on the way and Groshans should be up the year after. It's still early and the process always evolves but putting out a few prospects a year Is a decent rate. it's not like they missed on nailing top talent, either, Bichette and Pearson are (or were) top ten specs in all of baseball. If Groshans keeps producing he has a chance of getting in there as does the number 5 pick this year.

[ChongInc.]

Nah, we really only had one asset that they missed the boat by not trading in JD.

It's not their fault that the majority of the assets were overpaid, underperforming, old or a combination of the three. AA never constructed this team with longevity in mind

Except barely anything of value was traded away at the 15 deadline so it was almost like free assets if they flipped some of them successfully.

[Kenny Powders]

Except barely anything of value was traded away at the 15 deadline so it was almost like free assets if they flipped some of them successfully.

I'm not sure if I am following your train of thought.

Are you saying that the assets traded for by AA at the '15 deadline could have been traded at a later date by Atkins?

[R. Johnson#3]

Except barely anything of value was traded away at the 15 deadline so it was almost like free assets if they flipped some of them successfully.

3 of our top 10 prospects were dealt at the 2015 TDL while another 2 graduated that year. Yes, the ones who were dealt all ended up sucking but at the time were seen as actual trade chips. This doesn’t even include Matt Boyd who wasn’t in the top 10. The top prospect in the system when Atkins took over was Dalton Pompey. We’ve been over this. The cupboards were bare, remember? Tim Mayza, SRF etc.

[ChongInc.]

I'm not sure if I am following your train of thought.

Are you saying that the assets traded for by AA at the '15 deadline could have been traded at a later date by Atkins?

Yes. At the end of the day nothing except Boyd was lost at the 15 deadline. The franchise as a whole only gained assets at that deadline. So trading even 1 of them for a decent return would have us ahead at the end of the day.



Dear Reed and Kenny,
Being a fan of a team doesn’t mean you have to defend them to your grave and agree with everything the FO says or does. It’s important to apply critical thinking in all areas of your life, including fandom.
Remember - you will still be a fan after these guys have moved onto another team (however long that takes).

Regards,
Chong.

[ChongInc.]

3 of our top 10 prospects were dealt at the 2015 TDL while another 2 graduated that year. Yes, the ones who were dealt all ended up sucking but at the time were seen as actual trade chips. This doesn’t even include Matt Boyd who wasn’t in the top 10. The top prospect in the system when Atkins took over was Dalton Pompey. We’ve been over this. The cupboards were bare, remember? Tim Mayza, SRF etc.

Where did fangraphs have the farm ranked after the 2015 deadline?