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  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Really? I’m the one who doesn’t want to listen to anyone who disagrees with me?

    Look in the mirror dude.

    So the farm was depleted when fangraphs had us ranked in the 20’s, but now is stocked to the brim thanks to this FO’s hard work yet still ranked in the 20’s (after graduating what they inherited, along with the pieces the inherited staff drafted).

    Critical thinking bro.
    Are you religious? The lack of critical thinking has me thinking so.
    ......what are you even talking about? The farm isn't in the 20's right now. It's actually top 10.

    You need to stop getting emotional in your posts man. You spent pages proving to people you don't know what facts are and now you're just making things up. I wouldn't be surprised if you started calling these things factual either.

    IIRC pre 2015 TDL the Jays farm was right around 10 and then after it dropped to the 20's. I'll say upper 20's just to make you happy. At the start of 2019 the Jays farm was 3rd in the league. After Vladdy Jr, Bichette and Biggio graduated they managed to stay as high as 6th or as low as 10th. This is after losing the #1 and #8 prospects in ALL OF BASEBALL.

    I'm still waiting for you to tell me how Tulo and Price were assets but if I were you I'd take a breath.

    Edit: Just saw the fangraphs rankings with the Jays at 25 lol. My guess as to what the Jays farm system was after the 2015 TDL was based off what I recall other sites having it around. Considering fangraphs has our current farm at 25 I'd like to change my original guess. After the 2015 TDL I'm going to guess that fangraphs had our farm ranked 48th.
    Last edited by R. Johnson#3; 10-08-2019 at 11:30 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by FLeays View Post
    I've ignored Osuna's trade because I've mentioned in other posts that subject is sensitive and I really don't want to get into it. Too many hypotheticals surround that issue. Sorry that's not something I'm going to discuss.

    The Jays did have Dosh, Stroman, and Sanchez leftover. In hindsight the moves they made were wrong, at the time I could see why they made them. But let's not act like AA gave away prospects (or gold) that would turn this team into a team that would compete with the likes of the Astros or Dodgers either. As we've said he still managed to hang on to players in the farm such as Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna who still had value at the beginning of 2017.

    I've also said that the Jays aren't where they should be because after 3 years of asset collection. They should be better than just 2 prospects in the top 100. Again most of the Padres top specs were drafted 2017 and after.

    And since we're on the Yankees who'd they give up to grab Urshela?
    Why ignore it? Atkins dealt a woman beater who's value was **** for a top of the line closer. The only reason he didn't get charged is because the girl went back to Mexico. Police had pictures. The subsequent restraining order and counselling say a lot though. Getting Ken Giles for a woman beater was a great trade.

    Hindsight is 20/20 and yes, had they blown it all up after 2016 then we would've been in much better shape. I don't know how Atkins and Shapiro would pull that off though considering it was year 1 on the job working for a company that only cares about profit. These guys have jobs to keep too.

    I'm confident that at some point in 2020 Nate Pearson and Jordan Groshans won't be the only Jays in the top 100. You can hold me to that too.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by FLeays View Post
    MLB has them at 10. This guy has them at 13. . Fangraphs has them all the way down at 25.

    Please show me something else. When I think of good farms I'm looking at the Marlins, Padres, Rays, and Dodgers. I think in all of the aforementioned links they are top 5. Who in the Jays farm system is ready to make the leap? Pearson ok. The Jays have an above average farm system right now. I said in the offseason let's see how good the farm is without Vlad. It sucks that Bichette is no longer factored into these rankings but I would like to know who else is a coming up?

    Problem is the young supporting positional players (I'm looking at Grichuk, Drury, Mckinney, Hernandez) are absolute garbage that we may have to wait for the next wave of positional players to come through - and how long is that going to be? The Jays have Gurriel so maybe they can pickup a Sogard and Galvis again? No one else is knocking on the door in the farm next season other than Pearson. I hope some quality pitching arrives pretty quickly because when you look at the offense of the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, even Twins you realize the Jays have a ways to go to reach that tier.

    Edit: Looked at MLB's ranking and if Bichette is graduated they only have Pearson and Groshans (#73) as the only two prospects in the top 100!!
    BA has us in the top 3rd as well. I'm not a subscriber so I can't link it.

    Fangraphs rankings look way off to me. The Mets ahead of us somehow? After trading us two of their top 10 specs and not adding anything, they're ahead of us? Something is wrong there I believe. Angels are a one trick pony and ranked better than us as well.

    As for who else is coming? Our top 10 is looking really solid. Those two young catchers are going to give us a big boost I believe.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by FLeays View Post
    Which trades have they won? The trades for insignificant players that won't really impact the team much or cannot support the core? I'm not going to go on who will be a good prospect next year because we don't know what is going to happen in the upper farm levels...remember when we were high on Logan Warmoth the year he was drafted? Remember Kevin Smith? What about when AA drafted McGuire, Jenkins, Smoral, and Wojo? These 4 pitchers were supposed to make the farm stronger and they can very well be the next Kloff and Manoa.

    Before the season started I said let's see where the farm is after Vlad has graduated because that will give us 3+ years of asset collection. Now that Vlad is in The Show as well as Bichette having 2 prospects in the top 100 CURRENTLY is very underwhelming mainly because of what this FO was been preaching!?! Building and developing through the farm. They do not have a top flight farm to make trades for pitching (like Atkins is claiming) and if they do they're just going to empty the cupboard because the farm is middling right now. Who cares about who was drafted in 2019 because we don't know how those prospects will pan out, least we're all forgetting that other teams are just as high on their 2019 picks as the Jays are and they're all pretty much unknowns at this point. All I can say is that if you look at the Padres (and I know they had some high picks) the top 7 of their 8 prospects were drafted 2017 or after. Oh and the Padres also graduated a top flight prospect of their own and still have the consensus top farm. I haven't even looked at the Marlins, Rays, Dodgers, or Braves but if I get time I'll see what year those prospects were picked up.

    To me this FO needs to do a better job with asset collection because at this pace the conversation is going to shift to "Vlad's window".
    To be fair that's the only trades they could really make. They made it quite clear they were going to build through the draft. Realistically, the guys who had more then marginal value were Sanchez, Donaldson, Osuna and Stroman. Two guys they got nothing for and two guys they got something for. Again, no one seen Sanchez crashing like this but baseball is littered with stories like that.

    I don't think many were that high on Warmoth, he was always viewed as a safe pick, kind of in the same mold as McGuire and Zeuch. None appeared on the top 100 and always seemed meh. I really liked Smoral and the I thought the Lansing three were going to anchor the rotation for a decade

    I haven't really seen much from either Manoah or Kloff but one was an 11th overall pick and the other was a first round talent who slipped because of signability issues, iirc. They are far from sure things and there isn't a lot of pitching depth but it's not nothing lol. I'm actually starting to lean toward drafting a pitcher. Get a stud to go alogside Pearson.

    He's, there's only two guys in the top 100 and they just graduated 5. Of the Padres top 6 guys on MLB Pipeline who are in their too 100 - one was traded for, one was an IFA one was a number three overall pick, one was a sixth and two were drafted in the second round and later. Good for them, they are good at drafting. Gurriel, Biggio and Bichette is a pretty good start. Granted, they are going to have to be willing to take a risk and I hope they add a few pitchers.

    Do you really believe they don't have the farm to get a too flight pitcher?

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Except barely anything of value was traded away at the 15 deadline so it was almost like free assets if they flipped some of them successfully.
    Horseshit

    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  6. #96
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    Baseball prospectus had a complimentary view of our system here

    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/p...onal-rankings/

    Of the 9 guys mentioned in their write up on our top 10 farm AA traded 5 of the guys mentioned in a span of 72 hours.

    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    Baseball prospectus had a complimentary view of our system here

    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/p...onal-rankings/

    Of the 9 guys mentioned in their write up on our top 10 farm AA traded 5 of the guys mentioned in a span of 72 hours.

    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    Who?

  8. #98
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    I think people need to calm down on the "2 prospects in the top 100" talk. By mid season next year (...end of the season at the latest...) that number is going to be much, much higher. I am pretty confident the majority of guys like Manoah, Pardinho, SWR, Martinez, Moreno, Hiraldo, Kloff and Kirk are going to find their way on to that list. Maybe even Conine too after the power potential he showed this season hitting 22 bombs and 19 doubles in just 80 games.

    This system is still pretty deep if you ask me for a team that just graduated so many players. People need to stop hating.

  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    I think people need to calm down on the "2 prospects in the top 100" talk. By mid season next year (...end of the season at the latest...) that number is going to be much, much higher. I am pretty confident the majority of guys like Manoah, Pardinho, SWR, Martinez, Moreno, Hiraldo, Kloff and Kirk are going to find their way on to that list. Maybe even Conine too after the power potential he showed this season hitting 22 bombs and 19 doubles in just 80 games.

    This system is still pretty deep if you ask me for a team that just graduated so many players. People need to stop hating.
    They won’t. It’s only going to get funnier and even more petty now too once the kids start getting closer. My guess is that Tony LaCava and Gil Kim will be the ones getting all the credit of these kids pan out.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanton View Post
    Who?
    Tirado
    Labourt
    Castro
    Norris
    Hoffman



    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Interesting that fangraphs has us ranked right in the same slot with a 95 loss team and all the attention paid toward building the farm for the last 5 years.
    That’s one huge outlier of where are farm is and we graduated ten rookies this year, two of them top 5 prospects.

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny Powders View Post
    To be fair that's the only trades they could really make. They made it quite clear they were going to build through the draft. Realistically, the guys who had more then marginal value were Sanchez, Donaldson, Osuna and Stroman. Two guys they got nothing for and two guys they got something for. Again, no one seen Sanchez crashing like this but baseball is littered with stories like that.

    I don't think many were that high on Warmoth, he was always viewed as a safe pick, kind of in the same mold as McGuire and Zeuch. None appeared on the top 100 and always seemed meh. I really liked Smoral and the I thought the Lansing three were going to anchor the rotation for a decade

    I haven't really seen much from either Manoah or Kloff but one was an 11th overall pick and the other was a first round talent who slipped because of signability issues, iirc. They are far from sure things and there isn't a lot of pitching depth but it's not nothing lol. I'm actually starting to lean toward drafting a pitcher. Get a stud to go alogside Pearson.

    He's, there's only two guys in the top 100 and they just graduated 5. Of the Padres top 6 guys on MLB Pipeline who are in their too 100 - one was traded for, one was an IFA one was a number three overall pick, one was a sixth and two were drafted in the second round and later. Good for them, they are good at drafting. Gurriel, Biggio and Bichette is a pretty good start. Granted, they are going to have to be willing to take a risk and I hope they add a few pitchers.

    Do you really believe they don't have the farm to get a too flight pitcher?
    This is exactly the type of post that I think makes this forum so much better. We obviously do not agree but I think our points are made (at least yours is - not sure about mine haha).

    -You hit the nail on Manoah and Kloff. Everyone seems to think they are sure things but they're not because they are so far down the farm. Even a highly touted prospects like Drabek and Chamberlain flamed out.

    -Nice research on the Padres and my gripe with this FO is that if they want to compete with the Yankees, Sox, and Rays they need to be just as good as the Padres in terms of drafting because this is what this FO has been preaching. So yes I feel that even graduating Bichette and Vlad it is underwhelming to have this farm where it is. There are no other players other than Pearson ready to take the next step and another year of development bring Vlad and co. another year closer to FA.

    -Gurriel, Biggio, Bichette, Vlad is a great core to have. Where are the supporting players? I think they fumbled big time on the likes of Drury, Teoscar, Grichuk, and McKinney. This "asset collection" hasn't produced any supporting players that you don't have to give up much for - either through FA or minor trades. You don't just need to "win" on these trades you need to hit on a couple of them (i.e. JP w/ Bautista & EE).

    -These guys need to take risks to compete in this division or they can wait to build through the draft (which is what I think they'll do). There is no problem with waiting for players to develop, although my fear with waiting is that you'll be wasting Vlad and Bichette's service time and in the end you'll end up with a 2-3 year compete window if they aren't signed for big dollars. So let's say the farm is stocked at the bottom, again the problem is how long will they take to develop - that is time that cuts into Vlad and Bichette service time.

    -Without dealing Pearson the Jays will have to give up a lot for a top flight pitcher. Do they have the farm? They might. They just cannot absorb a blow to the farm like the Rays, Padres, or even Marlins can. 1 pitcher is not going to put this team into contention either, they'll have to make sure they pickup a stud pitcher on FA. That'll give you Pearson, traded pitcher, FA pitcher. Oh and all 3 might have to pitch 150+ innings unless your confident with Waugespack and Thornton being solid as your 4 and 5. It's a risk I don't think these guys will take. Like I said dealing for a top flight pitcher will severely deplete the farm - the same thing Shapiro supposedly chided AA for.

    -And all this talk about the farm being great. It's not without Bichette anymore. I just posted 3 sites that had the Jays outside the top 10. All were posted in August or later and that BA top 5 had Bichette in there and it was back in July. There is a reason why the Dodgers, Marlins, Padres, Rays are all consensus top 5 farms and the Jays aren't. Everyone wants to talk about the lower levels. Well when AA left didn't he have depth at the lower levels too (Tellez, Vlad, Jansen, Alford)? Like you said those lower level prospects are far from a sure thing and some folks don't understand that, yet folks feel like these prospects are going to be better than the next teams lower level prospects - are they? Why are the Jays lower level prospects better than the Rays, Sox, Brewers, etc? It seems the Jays unranked lower level prospects are better than other teams unranked lower lever prospects is because they were drafted by the Jays and this FO seems to be the best at drafting - gimmie a break. We won't know for a couple of year people!!

    -Can we find more than 1 sight ranking the Jays top 5 dated within the last couple of months? It's going to be hard because it will be crowded with the Dodgers, Padres, Rays, and Marlins.

    If Shapiro and Atkins were gone today how much better are they than when they took over? I guess I'd start with Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, Gurriel, Pearson and the bad contract of Grichuk over Dosh, Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna and the contracts of Tulo & Martin (all in hindsight). As of right now the farm only has two top 100 specs with some exciting albeit unknown specs in the lower levels. The farm this offseason isn't much different than 2016 when the Jays also had a couple of exciting unranked lower level prospects. In all these guys preached building through the farm and graduating Bichette and Vlad and being left with with a couple of top 100 specs is underwhelming. They need to draft as well as the Padres - that's what they said they were going to do!
    Last edited by FLeays; 10-09-2019 at 12:22 PM.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    I think people need to calm down on the "2 prospects in the top 100" talk. By mid season next year (...end of the season at the latest...) that number is going to be much, much higher. I am pretty confident the majority of guys like Manoah, Pardinho, SWR, Martinez, Moreno, Hiraldo, Kloff and Kirk are going to find their way on to that list. Maybe even Conine too after the power potential he showed this season hitting 22 bombs and 19 doubles in just 80 games.

    This system is still pretty deep if you ask me for a team that just graduated so many players. People need to stop hating.
    In defense of all the other posters out there it's just me that is harping on this issue. The prospect you listed can all be top 20 specs or just as easily not be in the top 100. Remember other teams have lower level specs they are excited about.

    Need I bring up McGuire, Jenkins, Smoral, Warmoth, Wojo, even Kevin Smith. These were high draft pics or good at the lower levels that didn't do much. Who's to say the guys you mentioned won't be in the top 20, who's to say they'll be like the specs I listed?

    Wouldn't it be better to have good prospects in the higher level? That's more of a sure thing isn't it and they'll be closer to make the jump to The Show. No one is hating the farm isn't as deep this offseason as other teams' farms. There is a reason the Jays are outside the top 10 on a lot of farm rankings. If it were about the lower levels then maybe the Jays would be ranked higher farm wise, but those specs are a huge unknown and it's why the Jays are outside the top 10.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by FLeays View Post
    In defense of all the other posters out there it's just me that is harping on this issue. The prospect you listed can all be top 20 specs or just as easily not be in the top 100. Remember other teams have lower level specs they are excited about.

    Need I bring up McGuire, Jenkins, Smoral, Warmoth, Wojo, even Kevin Smith. These were high draft pics or good at the lower levels that didn't do much. Who's to say the guys you mentioned won't be in the top 20, who's to say they'll be like the specs I listed?

    Wouldn't it be better to have good prospects in the higher level? That's more of a sure thing isn't it and they'll be closer to make the jump to The Show. No one is hating the farm isn't as deep this offseason as other teams' farms. There is a reason the Jays are outside the top 10 on a lot of farm rankings. If it were about the lower levels then maybe the Jays would be ranked higher farm wise, but those specs are a huge unknown and it's why the Jays are outside the top 10.
    Baseball America’s list came out around the same time as MLB’s list and they were ranked 6th on that one. Mid August I believe.

    I agree that it’s much easier to call prospects a sure thing when they’re in AAA as opposed to A ball. This FO just gives me reason to be optimistic based on what we’ve seen from Bichette, Biggio and Gurriel. Granted there are guys like Warmoth but this FO has proven they can identify talent in the high rounds. TJ Zeuch is nothing special but he was never supposed to be. Manoah and SWR have TORP potential and Kloff might have something too.

    It’s a guessing game at this point but it’s not like the Jays are the only team who are hoping for big things from prospects in the lower levels. The top pitching prospect in all of baseball (Mackenzie Gore) only had 5 starts in AA before getting injured this year. His numbers weren’t even good and he’s the top prospect in the Pads system. The same goes for Luis Patino minus the injury. He only got 2 starts in AA this year but his numbers were better. The majority of the Pads top 10 prospects either just got to AA last year or are still in A ball actually.

  15. #105
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    MLBTR projected arb salaries.

    Matt Shoemaker – $3.8MM
    Ken Giles – $8.4MM
    Devon Travis – $1.95MM
    Ryan Tepera – $1.6MM
    Brandon Drury – $2.5MM
    Luke Maile – $800K
    Derek Law – $1.3MM
    Ryan Dull – $800K

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