The Offseason Lounge

[bartron_44]

So, that's not a universally accepted evaluation or projection of him. I think most prospect evaluators would strongly disagree with that.

I'm still firmly in the camp that believes he can be a front of the rotation starter. He has areas to improve, but I'm not sure why anyone would paint him as a reliever at this point.

I don't paint him as just "a reliever", I paint him as potentially one of the best back end relievers in all of baseball....who the last time I checked would still be worth a lot. Where as I don't think he will ever be one of the best starters in all of baseball. Maybe I am wrong and what we saw at the beginning of last year was just him pitching hurt , but his stuff wasn't dominant as a starter like it is when he comes out of the bullpen throwing 103mph with a hammer breaking pitch and a change up mixed in. They can't afford to take 3 seasons to build him up to being an 180 inning pitcher. ...not unless you are at least going to let him be a reliever for the rest of the year once he hits his inning limits. I'd be just as happy using one of the other young arms in the rotation like Hatch or Kay and putting Pearson in the bullpen as a 2 or 3 inning reliever throwing cheese or just given the 7th or 8th inning to start and eventually moved to the 9th inning for the next decade like we hoped Osuna would be.

There is a MUCH better chance of him helping this team at an all-star level over the next 3 years as a reliever than trying to be stretched into a starter. The latter is possible, but the former is almost a sure thing.
Or maybe you let him close for a few years and then you turn him back into a starter like they used to back in the 90's when they were winning chips...

[R. Johnson#3]

You dont want to overpay though. If we could get someone better than Moose that may make it work.

In all honesty I was just including Moose because we needed a lefty bat. Now with Brantley I don’t care much for Moose. I’d still offer that same package for Castillo though.

[LechWalesa]

I think Grichuk is gone. Dump his salary with some high-end prospects for Castillo.

Can Grich, Pearson, + get it done?

[Chaotic98]

Not in my books. Pearson being ranked as high as he is should be considered a gift right now as a 2 pitch pitcher.

We might not be properly evaluating Pearson. There's a reason MLB scouts feels he's the #6 prospect coming into 2021. We have been spoiled with the fast progression of LGJ, Bo, Biggio and Vladdy (to differing extents) that we forget pitchers often take a bit longer to develop ex. Halladay and Carpenter who we gave up on way too soon.

[Raps18-19 Champ]

In all honesty I was just including Moose because we needed a lefty bat. Now with Brantley I don’t care much for Moose. I’d still offer that same package for Castillo though.

We still need a LHH but Moose is too steep of a contract. If we can find a better player than moose or if we can change Pearson to another prospect, I may do it.

[Chaotic98]

I think Grichuk is gone. Dump his salary with some high-end prospects for Castillo.

Cincy is trying to dump payroll not add it. Better chance to take Gray, Suarez for Grich or Roark and a spec or 2.

Also if we do add a pitcher, we should be looking to offload Roark and Yama.

We have many trades to make now to finalize this roster.

[R. Johnson#3]

We still need a LHH but Moose is too steep of a contract. If we can find a better player than moose or if we can change Pearson to another prospect, I may do it.

I’m okay with 3 lefty bats in the lineup. We have 1 that gets on base with speed, 1 that’s an amazing all around hitter and 1 with a power stroke. Solid balance

[R. Johnson#3]

Any word on how much Brantley gets? So much for us not spending lots of money this off-season, eh Raps?

[LechWalesa]

Cincy is trying to dump payroll not add it. Better chance to take Gray, Suarez for Grich or Roark and a spec or 2.

Also if we do add a pitcher, we should be looking to offload Roark and Yama.

We have many trades to make now to finalize this roster.

I could see Castillo and Gray for Grich, Pearson, Moreno, Groshans +

Am I wrong in thinking Groshans is totally redundant to our future at this point? Does Martin now get pegged as 3b of the future?

[T.O. Fan]

What if it meant getting Luis Castillo?

I obviously don't work in an MLB front office or anything, but I wouldn't. I think Pearson has that kind of potential and fairly quickly so there's no real need to do it.

Honestly, I'd just go to Bauer now and ask him if he believes in this team and go for it. It's just money and the Jays can retain their valuable assets and potentially even leverage those in a deadline type of deal if needed.

As for Grichuk, yeah for sure he's gone with some cash for a bullpen arm.

[T.O. Fan]

I don't think Groshans is redundant and still remember the Jays drafting Romero instead of Tulo because they had Hill and Adams.....probably a better comp was trading Michael Young for Loaiza...either way I don't believe in prospect redundancy because you can always move people around the field to improve the overall team. Plus, Groshans is still likely 2 years from reaching the bigs..

[Raps18-19 Champ]

I’m okay with 3 lefty bats in the lineup. We have 1 that gets on base with speed, 1 that’s an amazing all around hitter and 1 with a power stroke. Solid balance

If we can get a LH backup infielder I guess that works.

[hanton]

Apparently Brantley is NOT signed yet

[pebloemer]

I don't paint him as just "a reliever", I paint him as potentially one of the best back end relievers in all of baseball....who the last time I checked would still be worth a lot. Where as I don't think he will ever be one of the best starters in all of baseball. Maybe I am wrong and what we saw at the beginning of last year was just him pitching hurt , but his stuff wasn't dominant as a starter like it is when he comes out of the bullpen throwing 103mph with a hammer breaking pitch and a change up mixed in. They can't afford to take 3 seasons to build him up to being an 180 inning pitcher. ...not unless you are at least going to let him be a reliever for the rest of the year once he hits his inning limits. I'd be just as happy using one of the other young arms in the rotation like Hatch or Kay and putting Pearson in the bullpen as a 2 or 3 inning reliever throwing cheese or just given the 7th or 8th inning to start and eventually moved to the 9th inning for the next decade like we hoped Osuna would be.

There is a MUCH better chance of him helping this team at an all-star level over the next 3 years as a reliever than trying to be stretched into a starter. The latter is possible, but the former is almost a sure thing.
Or maybe you let him close for a few years and then you turn him back into a starter like they used to back in the 90's when they were winning chips...

I expect we'll see shorter outings with him. Montoyo doesn't like pitchers going 3 times through the order very often. Pearson never pitched more than 5 innings last year. I imagine getting a guys like Chatwood and Stripling are so they can piggyback a few extra innings after a 4-5 innings start. I think we'll see that used a lot as a strategy. I doubt we see any 180 inning pitchers next year for the Blue Jays (unless they sign Bauer). In 2019 only 33 pitchers hit 180 innings pitched. And I think it is trending in the opposite direction across the game.

[pebloemer]

It’s because he throws 2 pitches and was a reliever all through college. It’s also because his FB sits at 95 when he starts as opposed to 98 when he comes out in relief. It’s also because his fastball doesn’t have a whole lot of movement. He threw his curve and change less than 5% of the time.

Seeing Nate Pearson pitch was an eye opener. All of the reports on him over the years praised his velocity and his massive frame. There was never much on his pitching ability. Just sheer force coupled with potential. Starters don’t survive on 2 pitches and I’m not holding my breath for Pearson to develop a good curve or change after seeing his slider. Pearson works off his fastball and it needs to be coming in hot for him to be effective.

He throws 4 pitches. 2 of them are graded very well (the fastball is the obvious highlight). Most starters rely on their top 2 pitches around 80% of the time and incorporate the 3rd/4th offerings when they start seeing hitters for a 3rd time through the order. Pearson hasn't had to do that, so he hasn't thrown his other pitches much. But most dominant starters don't throw their 3rd/4th pitches often either. It is heavy reliance on fastball/slider while mixing the change and curveball just enough to keep batters guessing.

Last year was an 18 inning sample size on Pearson. I'd lean to the prospect evaluators on this one and give the kid a little time.