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  1. #3451
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    11,267

    2019 - 2020 Off Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jfoley89 View Post
    ESPN WAR has Baez at 4.8 vs 3.6 for Bryant.
    Fangraphs has Bryant 4.8 vs 4.4 with Baez missing a month.
    Bref has Javy at 4.8 vs 3.6 for Bryant. It's close if you prefer fangraphs, but I'd lean Javy.

    Looking at this, I assume ESPN pulls from baseball reference. Is that accurate?
    I donít know what ESPN does. Looks like bWAR. Iím only aware of the 2 versions. I prefer fWAR, but in cases like this I donít think we can look at 2 conflicting war numbers and say A is clearly better than B.

    Between KB and Javy, KB was clearly the better offensive player. His OBP was 66 points higher, wRC+ was 21 points better. Bryant rated as a better base runner. Javy played a premium position and played it very well. Bryant defense was a negative, but part of the issue was that he spent so much time in outfield positions where he graded especially poorly. Bryant played 9 more games. The defensive value makes it close, but Iíd lean to Bryant being the Cubs 2019 best player.
    Last edited by CP_414; 11-15-2019 at 12:15 PM.

  2. #3452
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    9,466
    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    You have. I agree. But usually it was in an attempt to make a case for trading Schwarber. In this case it seems the Cubs are saying they are not interested in bringing in NC because they believe in Schwarber. Actaully usually after you posted your idea of the Cubs signing NC meaning they would have to trade Kyle, I usually followed up with my thought that if that was the case, they wouldn't be signing NC. And that also appears o be correct. That said, I would be fine with taking a flier on Akiyama and then maybe also signing Garcia. If Akiyama does well then maybe all 4 outfielders find their playing time to be between 100 and 140 games (I would think Schwarber should play that many, anyway). Heyward can play center in games Akiyama doesn't start. And, if Akiyama sucks they can always more Heyward to center and play Garcia in right most games, using Akiyama as a defensive replacement. They would be getting 2 outfielders for probably less then the cost of NC by himself. If they did this that might allow them to deal Happ for a pen arm. Put him in a trade with Contreras and try getting a young starting pitcher, a pen arm and a solid prospect.
    Having a choice, would you rather have Garcia or Puig? I think their contracts will be very similar.

    Garcia

    K 23.6%
    BB 5.8%
    Hard Con 40%
    Soft Con 19%
    O Swing 40%
    Contact 69%

    Puig

    K 21.8%
    BB 7.2%
    Hard Con 39%
    Soft Con 20%
    O Swing 34%
    Contact 74%

    Using FG Defense, both are negative defensive in RF.

  3. #3453
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    14,935
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Having a choice, would you rather have Garcia or Puig? I think their contracts will be very similar.

    Garcia

    K 23.6%
    BB 5.8%
    Hard Con 40%
    Soft Con 19%
    O Swing 40%
    Contact 69%

    Puig

    K 21.8%
    BB 7.2%
    Hard Con 39%
    Soft Con 20%
    O Swing 34%
    Contact 74%

    Using FG Defense, both are negative defensive in RF.
    Garcia. I think Puig can cause problems in the clubhouse. I also think Puig might cost a little more, and would be more of a full time everyday player. I can see Garcia as a better buy who plays a little less than Puig.

    If the contract were identical, and the Cubs felt they could control Puig, I feel he is a little better. But I do worry about his attitude and him fitting in.
    Last edited by rcal10; 11-15-2019 at 12:22 PM.

  4. #3454
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    6,905
    Not re signing Castellanos and keeping bums like Almora sends a bad message to the fans and the clubhouse. Are they serious about winning? You canít let one of your best walk out the door

  5. #3455
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Addison, IL
    Posts
    22,907
    Cubs are involved in bidding for Japanese CF Shogo Akiyama via Patrick Mooney

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  6. #3456
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    11,267

    2019 - 2020 Off Season Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Having a choice, would you rather have Garcia or Puig? I think their contracts will be very similar.

    Garcia

    K 23.6%
    BB 5.8%
    Hard Con 40%
    Soft Con 19%
    O Swing 40%
    Contact 69%

    Puig

    K 21.8%
    BB 7.2%
    Hard Con 39%
    Soft Con 20%
    O Swing 34%
    Contact 74%

    Using FG Defense, both are negative defensive in RF.
    If the money is close then Iíd take Puig for sure, but I donít think the contracts will be similar.

    Puig has been an average or better hitter every year of his career. Avi had a single season with 200PAs and league average offense before 2019 and has been a negative defender every year of his career. DRS likes Puigs defense. Heís one of the weird ones who grades alright on DRS and poorly on UZR/150. Garcia is bad on both.
    Last edited by CP_414; 11-15-2019 at 12:25 PM.

  7. #3457
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    Apr 2008
    Posts
    9,466
    The Cubs are one of the teams that are "in" on Akiyama. Although Japanese ball is regarded as a AAA equivalency by many, his approach and all around numbers could translate to much better than our current option(s)

    Does anybody know how to closely convert his numbers over to major league numbers? Is it 10% drop? Is it a 20% drop? More than that. Is it a completely different evaluation? I would have no idea.

    How are they going to determine his value using the algorithm that is so widely used today? I've seen a speculation of 2/6. If we could, I would sign him up yesterday if that's the case.

    Even though the level of pitching is that of a AAA league, he seems to check all the boxes that we need. A CF'r, and a leadoff hitter.

    K 18.3%
    BB 11.5%
    303/392/471/864

    I'd love to see his contact, hard hit, chase, etc, rates.

    EDIT: In US dollars, the contract that he signed in 2016 was about 3/7.3. Would he make more or less than that in the bigs?
    Last edited by thawv; 11-15-2019 at 12:31 PM.

  8. #3458
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Puerto Rico
    Posts
    13,651

    2019 - 2020 Off Season Thread

    I think they will sign Akiyama TBH. That has been my expectation for a while now. I do think they want to keep Heyward in RF and the CF position around MLB is just very thin. He seems like their best option.

    With that said I do hope they can find a better hitter than Almora because that righty hitting OF of the bench will probably play a lot with 3 lefty hitters starting most days.

    Any splits on Shogo ?


    Also they need to address 2B because I donít think Nico is ready offensively .

    Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


    El Mago

  9. #3459
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    9,466
    The more I think about it, the more I think Willy is traded this off season.

    Ross is a different personality than Joe was. I feel like he's more of an "all business" type of manager and person. It doesn't seem like Willy is the type of personality that Ross would love. For the most part, the Cubs as a whole are very even keeled and conservative when it comes to their team personality. Willy is not that.

    He is arguably at the top of his game and his trade value is likely not going to be better. VC can step in and do a decent job, while Amaya prepares to be the man. We could also get back an immediate and future need(s)for him.

    Willy's hot head, and a little out of control personality just may not be the type of catcher Ross is looking for to lead the staff anymore.

  10. #3460
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    Apr 2008
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    9,466
    Quote Originally Posted by Dfan25 View Post
    I think they will sign Akiyama TBH. That has been my expectation for a while now. I do think they want to keep Heyward in RF and the CF position around MLB is just very thin. He seems like their best option.

    With that said I do hope they can find a better hitter than Almora because that righty hitting OF of the bench will probably play a lot with 3 lefty hitters starting most days.

    Any splits on Shogo ?


    Also they need to address 2B because I donít think Nico is ready offensively .

    Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk
    303/392/471/864

  11. #3461
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    Jul 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    303/392/471/864
    I think he meant lefty/righty splits

  12. #3462
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    Apr 2008
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    9,466
    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I think he meant lefty/righty splits
    I think you're right!

  13. #3463
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    Oct 2005
    Location
    Puerto Rico
    Posts
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    I think he meant lefty/righty splits
    Yeah


    Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


    El Mago

  14. #3464
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    Jul 2007
    Posts
    14,935
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    If the money is close then Iíd take Puig for sure, but I donít think the contracts will be similar.

    Puig has been an average or better hitter every year of his career. Avi had a single season with 200PAs and league average offense before 2019 and has been a negative defender every year of his career. DRS likes Puigs defense. Heís one of the weird ones who grades alright on DRS and poorly on UZR/150. Garcia is bad on both.
    I am not good with determining contracts, but originally I felt Puig would cost more. Maybe even several million more. Maybe 3/$39 versus Garcia something like 2/$18. That is why I have mentioned Garcia instead of Puig. I also feel Garcia would fit in better as a guy getting 400AB. If the dollars I am suggesting are correct, I would lean Garcia. Mainly because the Cubs do not have that much to spend, I believe he would be fine and do well with 400 AB, and I feel he is a better clubhouse presence. If thawv is right and the contract will be the same, I think you determine if you can control Puig and if you can you sign him. But then you run into Akiyama and Heyward splitting center and both are left handed hitters. I would think if you signed Puig he would play most of the time. More than Garcia would play, IMO.

  15. #3465
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    11,267
    Darvish weighs in on the Astros cheating:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Dodgers/com...nd_the_astros/

    I think he has a great perspective on the whole thing, as he frequently does. Interesting stuff about batters not looking at him in some road games this year and looking to left center. I wonder where that was (Milwaukee).

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